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Quick and Dirty EOD

I just went back and looked at the history of this system, using EUR/USD starting in Feb 2011 and going all the way until today, and I am showing +1000 pips (net).
I also just now looked back at GBPUSD, and it showed a result of (only) +100 pips...but this is because it appears that there was a long period of time in summer of 2011 where there were no trades, due to the monthly chart not showing a clear trend either way. I could be misinterpreting those charts, though.

I should also mention though, that the way I am trading this, is to go ahead and open a market order at the close of the opposite bar, and using the standard 100SL/200TP.
Quoting SmartGXL
I also just now looked back at GBPUSD, and it showed a result of (only) +100 pips...but this is because it appears that there was a long period of time in summer of 2011 where there were no trades, due to the monthly chart not showing a clear trend either way. I could be misinterpreting those charts, though.

I should also mention though, that the way I am trading this, is to go ahead and open a market order at the close of the opposite bar, and using the standard 100SL/200TP.

Hey SmartGXL,

Appreciate the backtest results. I want to make sure I'm understanding you completely. So, on a downtrend, you are opening your order at the close of the reversal (green) candle...not a pending at the base of the reversal?
Quoting spyderman
Hey SmartGXL,

Appreciate the backtest results. I want to make sure I'm understanding you completely. So, on a downtrend, you are opening your order at the close of the reversal (green) candle...not a pending at the base of the reversal?
Correct, I am just going ahead and opening a live market order at the close of the reversal candle, as opposed to a pending trade at the base of the reversal candle. I am showing that opening right away, not only generates more trades, but that the trades were just as accurate as the pending order trades, and actually are entering at better prices.
I like your style SmartGXL. I have wondered if there was a way to do this as well. The DD on the current entry system seems too large?

Been following this thread since the beginning, it's very similar to Brenzaj42's "Long Term Pips". His thread has died due to negative feed back, hope that doesn't happen here.

I have been trying to get a few pips with short term intraday trading, cant do it! This long term idea makes much more sense to me. More study for me!

Thanks Hugh and all others, great thread !!
Good Trading to All ---- fairwind
Thanks, Fairwind.

Also, I want to correct myself, I mentioned that I get in at better prices, but that is not entirely correct, the better prices, of course, are on pullbacks. I think what I meant to post was that the chances of hitting TP are better than by waiting to get in, even tho the prices are better on the pullback.
Net Profit Jan 2011 - today on USD/CAD: -300 pips.

The USDCAD has a much lower range than the other USD-pairs; the SL and TP's for this pair may need to be further analyzed to find what may work best.
USD/CAD is not one of the trendiest pairs to trade......
In fact the USD/CAD is just not an easy pair to trade period.
Find the stronger trending pairs to trade for this method.
Net Profit on USDCHF from January 2011 until today: +1100 pips.
Take a look at the GBP/AUD......
Let me summarize what I have so far:

EURUSD: 14 trades, 8 winners 6 Losses
Sequence: WWWLLLWWLWLWLW +1000 pips

GBPCHF: 18 trades, 6 winners 11 Losses 1 Open Trade
Sequence: LWLWLLWWLWLLLLWLL Open +100 pips

USDCAD: 12 trades, 3 winners 9 Losses
Sequence: LLWLLLLLWWLL -300 pips

USDCHF: 13 trades. 8 winners 5 Losses
Sequence: WWLWWWWLLLLWW +1100 pips

More to come.
Quoting tradestar1
USD/CAD is not one of the trendiest pairs to trade......
In fact the USD/CAD is just not an easy pair to trade period.
Find the stronger trending pairs to trade for this method.
I do agree with this. Canada has a very stable economy, and the Canadian Dollar (aka The Loony) is backed by a basket of commodities (oil, wheat, etc), giving it a small range and low volatility. The C$ is one of the few currencies left that actually is backed by an asset (non-fiat).
Quoting tradestar1
Take a look at the GBP/AUD......
Ok here is what I got for GBPAUD: 18 trades, 9 winners, 9 Losses
Sequence: LLLLWLWLWWWLWLWWLW +900

Looks good!!

Some of those trades for this pair might be wrong though, as I might not be looking as clearly at the chart as I should be...
Quoting SmartGXL
Ok here is what I got for GBPAUD: 18 trades, 9 winners, 9 Losses
Sequence: LLLLWLWLWWWLWLWWLW +900

Looks good!!

Some of those trades for this pair might be wrong though, as I might not be looking as clearly at the chart as I should be...
Lots of good posts above. Thanks to everyone. Good discussion.

So everyone is on the same page here can you clarify your entry method for the tests you have posted above. If I'm right you enter at market at the end of a pullback day? Are there any rules about how far the pullback has to be? Do you always just use a 100 pip stop?

My original idea to trade the break of the top or bottom of the pullback candle is because for it to pullback there must have been some support/resistance strong enough to reverse the price in a strong trend. It follows then that when that level breaks it should go with force. This allows us to use a smaller stop loss than I would normally use on a daily chart. Normally I would want to use nearer a 200 pip stop loss especially on more volatile pairs such as gbpusd.

Now, if entering on the first pullback day at the close is a better entry overall than my idea above then I'm perfectly happy to switch to that.

As for the exit I fully agree that some form of trailing the stop and adding on to profitable trades will vastly improve the profitability.

I propose that we backtest the two methods seperately and see which produces the greatest return, the two methods set out below.

System 1 - Original entry

Enter on the break of a signal candle.
Initial 100 pip stop (or top/bottom of signal candle)
Trail stop 50 pips behind the 10 ema but close trade if the price closes the other side of the 10 ema against the trade.
Add on each valid signal and trail as above.

System 2 - Aggressive entry

Enter on the close of a pullback candle.
Trail and add on as above.

For the second system we need to set a rule for the amount a pullback must be to be valid.

The trailing method will capture lots of nice long runs but will incur more losses in shorter trends.

I believe the original entry method is less subjective than entering at the market on a pullback day because of the question of how much is a pullback? Also you need to be there at the close of the candle to take the trade. With the original entry you can be a few hours early or late and still take the trade.

Unfortunately I do not have a lot of time for testing at the moment but when I do I will. If anyone else would be kind enough to examine the above then that would be great.
Quoting Hugh Briss

I believe the original entry method is less subjective than entering at the market on a pullback day because of the question of how much is a pullback? Also you need to be there at the close of the candle to take the trade. With the original entry you can be a few hours early or late and still take the trade.

This is the point I've been struggling with. I agree with you here Hugh.

The close of the pullback candle is very subjective as many of us will have different 'day end' times. Someone's platform may have a daily candle ending at GMT +2 and thereby take that as an entry, whereas my platform ends at GMt-6, so their entry is well into the next day's candle for me.

And again to my way of thinking, if I'm entering at the end of a pullback candle I'm just hoping that the pullback is done as opposed to waiting for the end of the reversal by the breaking of the previous support/resistance.

With the original entry we're basically employing a 1-2-3 entry.

Will be interesting to see how forward testing does on this.
Quoting spyderman
This is the point I've been struggling with. I agree with you here Hugh.

The close of the pullback candle is very subjective as many of us will have different 'day end' times. Someone's platform may have a daily candle ending at GMT +2 and thereby take that as an entry, whereas my platform ends at GMt-6, so their entry is well into the next day's candle for me.

And again to my way of thinking, if I'm entering at the end of a pullback candle I'm just hoping that the pullback is done as opposed to waiting for the end of the reversal by...
Yes, I don't like the idea of just entering on the first pullback because how many times does it just keep going an invalidates the trend? If testing proves it to be effective I will say I am wrong and adopt the new entry but until then I like breakouts.

One thing I would say about that though is that if we use the 10 ema to trail the stop behind then we could go in for some tighter entries. Have a look at the price as it moves in a trend and appears to be held in by the 10 ema (other close ma's look similar). If your stop loss was 50 pips the other side of that but you closes the trade if the candle closed the wrong side of it then I would agree that this could work because although you are taking a less valid entry your stops would be quite a lot smaller and you could get in at a "better" price.
Quoting Hugh Briss
Yes, I don't like the idea of just entering on the first pullback because how many times does it just keep going an invalidates the trend? If testing proves it to be effective I will say I am wrong and adopt the new entry but until then I like breakouts.

One thing I would say about that though is that if we use the 10 ema to trail the stop behind then we could go in for some tighter entries. Have a look at the price as it moves in a trend and appears to be held in by the 10 ema (other close ma's look similar). If your stop loss was 50 pips the...
What about trying ATR(20) for SL placements and try to achieve 2*ATR(20) as TP as suggested by spyder? IMO is a good idea
Okay,

I did a little backtest on this using the entry exit criteria that I am currently trying. And yes, I hand picked the Eur/Aud, because I wanted to see the potential on a trending pair.

If you look at the chart I took all trades since the marked cross back in Oct. 2011. Imagine (after you look at the figures) if you'd been in this since '08.

Criteria:
Entry as original. Bottom of reversal after a green candle close (note that the bottom is not always at the low of the signal candle. It may be the bottom of the last trend candle to it's immediate left. Again, I'm looking for support/resistance)

Exit (MM): My s/l on this pair is 100. I took the ATR for 220 periods. Made it easier to do the math so I got lucky on this one.
At 2 times ATR or 200 pips I closed 1/2 the position and moved the other to BE for a risk free position.

19 trades (to make it easy let's assume 2 lots per trade)

7 losers for a total loss of 700 pips with 2 lots (let's call it 1,400 pips)
11 winners closing 1/2 position or 1 lot at 200 pips/ea. (,2200 pips)
1 trade is still open currently at -25 pips for 2 lots (-50 pips)

Now here's the fun part.

With those trades moved to BE I'd still have 7 of them open for a total
of 5,253 pips at 1 lot each.

That's the potential of stacking orders on a trending (sorry Charvo) system while closing partial positions to offset your losses.

Now that's just one pair (granted a strong trender) over a 10 month period.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.jpg Size: 91 KB
Quoting spyderman
Okay,

I did a little backtest on this using the entry exit criteria that I am currently trying.

Actually, that's not quite accurate. What I am doing is at 2X ATR moving 1/2 the position to BE as noted above and then beginning a trailing stop on the other 1/2 at 30 pips.

My thinking on this is to not cut short runners. May see a few trades reverse as soon as they hit 200 pips so that would be a bummer, however some of these trades would have really took off for even more pips.

Maybe I could incorporate your idea Hugh of using an MA trail for that 1/2 of the order.

Anyone have any MA trailing stop EA's?
Quoting spyderman

Anyone have any MA trailing stop EA's?

Nevermind...I found some.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Move_MA.ex4   4 KB | 286 downloads
File Type: mq4 Move_MA.mq4   4 KB | 317 downloads
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