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Genesis Matrix Trading

  • #1,541
  • Aug 1, 2012 9:05pm Aug 1, 2012 9:05pm
Quoting realjumper
You're right Wiz......this happens very often and all I can conclude is that the news is being leaked ahead of the official release. Who leaks it the news, and to who, I have no idea, but I can't think of any other reason for it.
Well,
having said that now I am a little confused.
Following PA and matrix I should enter few minutes before the news even if all the litterature and experienced traders say exactly the opposite (wait for the news release before entering).
Any suggestion RJ.
ciao

wiz

p.s.: when do you sleep RJ? :-)
You control how you trade; the market controls how and when you'll get paid
  • #1,542
  • Aug 1, 2012 9:43pm Aug 1, 2012 9:43pm
Quoting wiz3003
Well,
having said that now I am a little confused.
Following PA and matrix I should enter few minutes before the news even if all the litterature and experienced traders say exactly the opposite (wait for the news release before entering).
Any suggestion RJ.
ciao

wiz

p.s.: when do you sleep RJ? :-)
I'll sleep when I'm dead Wiz!!

I do tend to enter ahead of time if the Matrix and all other signals point the same way.....*and*......I have the luxury of a tight SL. Be aware though, that in super high impact news like NFP there will almost certainly be some SL sweeping going on a minute or two before the official release. The other thing to be aware of is that if get it wrong, and the movement is (say) a violent 100 pips spike, then there can easily be a 60 pip or more slippage in the SL.......so our SL of (say) -20, could easily end up at -80......which is going to spoil your day!!!

So I don't try this with super high impact news, you have to pick and choose which ones you're going to have a go at.

The safest thing to do is as you mentioned, let the dust settle and then enter a minute or two after the release.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #1,543
  • Aug 1, 2012 10:14pm Aug 1, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting realjumper
I'll sleep when I'm dead Wiz!!

I do tend to enter ahead of time if the Matrix and all other signals point the same way.....*and*......I have the luxury of a tight SL. Be aware though, that in super high impact news like NFP there will almost certainly be some SL sweeping going on a minute or two before the official release. The other thing to be aware of is that if get it wrong, and the movement is (say) a violent 100 pips spike, then there can easily be a 60 pip or more slippage in the SL.......so our SL of (say) -20, could easily end up at -80......which...

Thank you RJ,
good suggestion to take into account also the *quality* of the news (not all news are the same) and slippage risk.

It is time for going back to bed for me ...

have agreat day

ciao

wiz
You control how you trade; the market controls how and when you'll get paid
  • #1,544
  • Edited Aug 2, 2012 12:06am Aug 1, 2012 10:21pm | Edited Aug 2, 2012 12:06am
Quoting wiz3003
Well,
having said that now I am a little confused.
Following PA and matrix I should enter few minutes before the news even if all the litterature and experienced traders say exactly the opposite (wait for the news release before entering).
Any suggestion RJ.
im not RJ. keep in mind that not all strategies work all the time. there are 17 major high impacting news monthly. a personal gauge, if FOMC doesn't whipsaw then its a good indicator that NFP will not whipsaw, and so will the rest of the news til the 30th of the month. 2/17 of them will whipsaw.

but if NFP whipsaws, then only 2/17 will not whipsaw, hence you apply that "let the dust settle" especially on interest rate and speeches

last night i got a shorting price at 2299 in M5. nearest high was 2307, add 4 pips so my SL was 2311 or 12 pips. this was perilous coz brokers are known to stop hunt at round numbers like 2300 was the best place to stop hunt.

watching M1, the first M1 candle that spawned the news closed as bear candle. so the direction is down. keeping in mind that i could be stop hunted (which can be a full 50 pip-size candle) i maintained my SL and placed pending sell 1 pip below R1 with a 12pip SL

so before i even traded the news i already knew how i will enter and how i will exit.

why should i just let Mr Market hit my SL rather than just giving it a moving space? coz it might be just the cheapest and brightest thing if indeed the move down is the actual stop loss hunting and the real movement is going up.

the stop loss hunting can be long and painful sometimes. if you've witnessed May 2012 NFP, that result was overwhelmingly +EU and yet Mr Market swooped down 85 pips, dropping 3x sharply and retracing back again sharply all happening in 20 mins then went sky rocketing, which was the correct PA for an overwhelmingly +EU news. the larger movers were positioning. if you join that positioning as a retailer then you would have shorted at the bottom.

20 mins is a long time and with no numbers involved or if the news came side by side with another high impacting news, and if you did not understand the content of the news and its impact, you would think that it was a bearish market.

i read the FOMC news and re-read it and still is -EU hence i maintained my pending short near R1 and i would again place a pending short 1 pip below R2 with a 12pip SL targeting market price before the news

it takes more than 5mins to digest what news esp if there are no numbers involved.

to make it easy for me, i just take the genesis signal right before it with a sharp stoploss. SL should be what is reasonable for you.
  • #1,545
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:08pm Aug 1, 2012 11:08pm
Short?

Near the Open ..............
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  • #1,546
  • Aug 2, 2012 1:58am Aug 2, 2012 1:58am
Greeting to all the trader in the house.
Please i am a day trader, and the best timeframe i may drop down to is 4hrs. please whats the best way to trade genesis matrix on the 4hr or daily time frame. Is there anyone trading that already. your suggestions are welcomed
Thanks in anticipation.
  • #1,547
  • Aug 2, 2012 2:05am Aug 2, 2012 2:05am
Quoting realjumper
I'm all out for a quick +48 on EU only.......now coffee and back to zzzzzzzzz
all times you say no trade in front of pivot and here you and others take trade with pivot 5 pips away also before big news; before that during day i see other trades short in front of pivot with small stoploss also and nobody take it
  • #1,548
  • Aug 2, 2012 2:20am Aug 2, 2012 2:20am
Quoting IgorD
all times you say no trade in front of pivot and here you and others take trade with pivot 5 pips away also before big news; before that during day i see other trades short in front of pivot with small stoploss also and nobody take it
Yes.....the point is that during High Impact news such as FOMC which we had, the market is likely to move more that 50 pips very quickly indeed as the whole world is reacting to the news release. The pivot will not be respected, as you saw, during these High Impact news releases. After the initial rush is over and the market settles down, pivots will once again be respected.

When the ECB news comes out later, you will see the same thing if a pivot is close to the PA at the time of the news release. You'll see it again on Friday for the NFP news.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #1,549
  • Aug 2, 2012 2:45am Aug 2, 2012 2:45am
Quoting realjumper
Yes.....the point is that during High Impact news such as FOMC which we had, the market is likely to move more that 50 pips very quickly indeed as the whole world is reacting to the news release. The pivot will not be respected, as you saw, during these High Impact news releases. After the initial rush is over and the market settles down, pivots will once again be respected.
ok thank you for explanation
  • #1,550
  • Aug 2, 2012 3:20am Aug 2, 2012 3:20am
EU better if closes below those lows........

Thoughts.....................is my reasoning correct?
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  • #1,551
  • Aug 2, 2012 3:49am Aug 2, 2012 3:49am
Quoting wiz3003
RJ and Oli,
I have been following for weeks the news release to understand the PA dynamics and this is not the first time PA anticipates the new. For the time being and taking into account that my statistical sample is still small I can say that bettwen 3 and 5 minutes before the release PA and matrix starts to give you the head.
I will keep you update abput this study
I had a quick look and will try to do longer term study over the weekend at least going back to the start of the year but having a quick look at last 7 NFP in 2012:
.4 times Genesis was the 'right' way but on at least 2 occasions would need wider stops than the previous high/low
.twice the 'wrong' way
.once you can't tell unless you go down to M1 chart as there is big whipsaw on M5 candle (ie you can't tell on M5 chart if the SL or a TP was hit first)

So, an encouraging picture but by no means definite at least as far as NFP is concerned.
The only really good statistical (if 7 can count as statistical) bit that I've found is that 6 out of 7 times, T3 was pointing the right way on the M5 candle just before NFP.

TECH question for Cody_R/Xaphod: on a M5 chart my M15 MTF Stox will not show for more than about 3 months; I've had a quick look at the code but can't find anything to modify there! Can you help?
  • #1,552
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:05am Aug 2, 2012 4:05am
Quoting olivierforex
I had a quick look and will try to do longer term study over the weekend at least going back to the start of the year but having a quick look at last 7 NFP in 2012:
.4 times Genesis was the 'right' way but on at least 2 occasions would need wider stops than the previous high/low
.twice the 'wrong' way
.once you can't tell unless you go down to M1 chart as there is big whipsaw on M5 candle (ie you can't tell on M5 chart if the SL or a TP was hit first)

So, an encouraging picture but by no means definite at least as far as NFP is concerned.
The...
I agree with you Oli, but I don't think it's fair to base the study on NFP......either alone of combined with other high impact news. NFP, as you know, is the highest impacting news on a regular monthly basis, and the stop loss sweeping that goes on nearly every time is almost legendary!! As I said a few posts ago, this is a good reason that I always wait until the dust settles before entering on NFP, but other news events I am happy to take the risk provided I get a good signal and a close SL.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #1,553
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:17am Aug 2, 2012 4:17am
Quoting realjumper
I agree with you Oli, but I don't think it's fair to base the study on NFP......either alone of combined with other high impact news. NFP, as you know, is the highest impacting news on a regular monthly basis, and the stop loss sweeping that goes on nearly every time is almost legendary!! As I said a few posts ago, this is a good reason that I always wait until the dust settles before entering on NFP, but other news events I am happy to take the risk provided I get a good signal and a close SL.
I just picked on NFP after seeing Yelena's comments:
"a personal gauge, if FOMC doesn't whipsaw then its a good indicator that NFP will not whipsaw, and so will the rest of the news til the 30th of the month. 2/17 of them will whipsaw"
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...91#post5895491
My thinking was that the Fed didn't whipsaw yesterday and as we have NFP tomorrow it might be worth a quick analysis...so if she is correct (I don't know how much statistical data she has to back this claim up though) then NFP will more than likely just go in 1 direction too!
Makes sense?
  • #1,554
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:21am Aug 2, 2012 4:21am
EU short closed at BE.
I would like to ask you for an opinion about my S entry.
I can see stoch divergence on M15 what maked me braver to enter this short.
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  • #1,555
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:30am Aug 2, 2012 4:30am
Quoting olivierforex
I just picked on NFP after seeing Yelena's comments:
"a personal gauge, if FOMC doesn't whipsaw then its a good indicator that NFP will not whipsaw, and so will the rest of the news til the 30th of the month. 2/17 of them will whipsaw"
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...91#post5895491
My thinking was that the Fed didn't whipsaw yesterday and as we have NFP tomorrow it might be worth a quick analysis...so if she is correct (I don't know how much statistical data she has to back this claim up though) then...
Yeah fair enough Oli, but with all due respect to Yelena, I can't verify if her theory is correct or not. I do know however, that NFP can, and often does whip 50 pips or more either side of the mark for quite some time before settling on a direction. This is not unique to NFP, but it is unusual for other news to react in this way. For that reason, to use NFP as the basis of the study will paint a distorted result.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #1,556
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:45am Aug 2, 2012 4:45am
Quoting iwan73
EU short closed at BE.
I would like to ask you for an opinion about my S entry.
I can see stoch divergence on M15 what maked me braver to enter this short.
The stoch wasn't in a very good postion when the signal happened but it was worth a shot as it had made a double high (just) and was just below the pivot, good that you moved to breakeven soon enough though.
  • #1,557
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:55am Aug 2, 2012 4:55am
Quoting silversurfer
Comparing your pivot and R1 to my chart and wonder why the difference - I'm using FX Pivots from page 1
Can u share indicator show time left of candles?
Thanks
Attached Image
  • #1,558
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:57am Aug 2, 2012 4:57am
Quoting realjumper
Yeah fair enough Oli, but with all due respect to Yelena, I can't verify if her theory is correct or not. I do know however, that NFP can, and often does whip 50 pips or more either side of the mark for quite some time before settling on a direction. This is not unique to NFP, but it is unusual for other news to react in this way. For that reason, to use NFP as the basis of the study will paint a distorted result.
Yes there's a high possibility of that re. NFP.
Regarding the other 'less impact' data/news I think that it's likely that Genesis will fare quite well there: not so much because of the 'leaked data' theory favoured by conspiracists but because the people at the top of the trading chain will more than likely not only be already positioned the right way but also it will not instantly be obvious in a M5 chart.
I think that is one of Genesis strength: being able to call turns in the market(s) early enough when the TA might still be somehow mixed so that you still get 'most of the meat' on a decent move; you know, the sort of move that when you look back looks obvious/easy with hindsight but definitely wasn't obvious at the time.
  • #1,559
  • Aug 2, 2012 5:00am Aug 2, 2012 5:00am
Quoting ohammond
The stoch wasn't in a very good postion when the signal happened but it was worth a shot as it had made a double high (just) and was just below the pivot, good that you moved to breakeven soon enough though.
Do you mean M5 stoch should be higher? Right?
  • #1,560
  • Aug 2, 2012 5:04am Aug 2, 2012 5:04am
Finally i didnt take this short because price made HH.

Now i am waiting for long signal near DP
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