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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #45,361
  • Aug 1, 2012 1:49pm Aug 1, 2012 1:49pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Sitting massively oversold probably will consolidate here before dropping another leg

holding ~the MS 2 level - I'd like to see the S1 at 2212 so that I can pay my bar bill....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #45,362
  • Aug 1, 2012 1:49pm Aug 1, 2012 1:49pm
2225 should yield a slight pullback with how oversold this is, maybe just another consolidation

Have a feeling that is it for the hopium, nobody cares about Draghi when Benny disappointing the way he does. Also with that expected unemployement number... yikes

1m is dominating it, I want a retest of 5m before adding more shorts with tight stops

Edit: So many pips can be made on a day like this... possible to make 100s scalping these 10-20 pip 1 minute swings
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #45,363
  • Aug 1, 2012 2:11pm Aug 1, 2012 2:11pm
Quoting Islander
holding ~the MS 2 level - I'd like to see the S1 at 2212 so that I can pay my bar bill....

2220 was pretty close to the 50% retracement

plus they took out the tight 2525 stops

edit: added short from 42 with tight stop
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #45,364
  • Aug 1, 2012 2:19pm Aug 1, 2012 2:19pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
2220 was pretty close to the 50% retracement

plus they took out the tight 2525 stops

edit: added short from 42 with tight stop
1.2220 is exactly the 61.8% of the move up from the Draghi Thursday low
It is also the neckline of the slightly malformed H/S pattern on H1 & H4

Quoting PipTrapper
...From a technical perspective, I am focusing on the developments of the H4 chart. To me it is very much in a consolidation range of indecision. Looking at the chart below, I see a huge potential inverted H/S pattern which (if played out) could take us all the way up to 1.2750 area. The neckline on this inverted H/S comes in around 1.2440/45 area. On the bearish side, we also have a smaller potential H/S pattern on H4 with a neckline at 1.2220 and a completion target of 1.2040/50. There is lots of confluence with the above mentioned levels in terms of fibo levels and trendline/channel resistance/support, so those numbers make lots of sense. First level to be violated and the technical picture shifts. Until then, it could go either way...
E/U H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,365
  • Aug 1, 2012 2:21pm Aug 1, 2012 2:21pm
When I awoke this morning, my Sell limit hit at 1.2332. SL @ 1.2274 above 200smma. First target 1.2174- 61.8% swing from last daily low.
I was out during FOMC and am happy things worked out...............for bears anyway!
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  • #45,366
  • Edited 2:48pm Aug 1, 2012 2:24pm | Edited 2:48pm
Quoting PipTrapper
1.2220 is exactly the 61.8% of the move up from the Draghi Thursday low
It is also the neckline of the slightly malformed H/S pattern on H1



E/U H1
Attachment
Yikes why didn't I draw that fib!

I still don't think it will hold for long.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #45,367
  • Aug 1, 2012 2:27pm Aug 1, 2012 2:27pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Yikes why didn't I draw that fib!

I still don't think it will hold for long.
I don't only draw fibs from all major swings. I also draw them from the swing lows or swing highs immediately preceding a major shift in sentiment. Very important.

ADD: See? I'm not the only one.

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,368
  • Aug 1, 2012 2:43pm Aug 1, 2012 2:43pm
Quoting PipTrapper
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8ZDV3fvaXM
Weeeeeeeee! Weee, Weee, Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Had to take wife shopping 10 minutes before the dam news release. Recap please.
  • #45,369
  • Aug 1, 2012 2:47pm Aug 1, 2012 2:47pm
Hi guys

I havent been contributing lately but I have been following the thread. Great stuff as always.

We are back retesting the 1.2200/1.2219

yep you all guessed it. A close under 1.2200 will give us another crack at the 1.2033 area
  • #45,370
  • Edited 3:05pm Aug 1, 2012 2:49pm | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I don't only draw fibs from all major swings. I also draw them from the swing lows or swing highs immediately preceding a major shift in sentiment. Very important.

ADD: See? I'm not the only one.

Attachment
Yeah the only one I have drawn is the retrace of the 2040 to 2390. You have this fib drawn from the 200 pip day that essentially started the up channel?

Edit: Target for today is 1.22 maybe a bit below before it needs to take a breather, IMO

Some nice support down here + oversold means 1.22 or so is probably it for today, especially with it being the ECBs turn tomorrow

E/U 4hr (without the fib retracement drawn from 2040 to 2390)

Edit: Nasty 4hr close almost completely full body candle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd4HRmaugust1.jpg Size: 300 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #45,371
  • Aug 1, 2012 3:12pm Aug 1, 2012 3:12pm
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Weeeeeeeee! Weee, Weee, Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Had to take wife shopping 10 minutes before the dam news release. Recap please.
70 pip drop in 5-10 mins followed by 40 pip bounce followed by more selling and lots of volatility as scalping long is worth it when RSIs are at 10, lol

or do you mean recap of FOMC statement?

I know some don't like ZeroHedge but you can't deny their analysis and charts have moments of brilliance. Sure they are a doom and gloom financial news website, but there is no reason not to be thinking doom and gloom at the moment, IMO

Bold is FOMC statement


Prayers Denied As Fed Disappoints - Full Statement Redline
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/01/2012 - 14:21
And not only did the Fed disappoint, but it didn't even extend ZIRP through 2015. Sorry Hilsenrath, better luck next time

FED SAYS IT `WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ACCOMMODATION AS NEEDED'
FED REPEATS EXCEPTIONALLY LOW RATES AT LEAST THROUGH LATE 2014
FED SEES INFLATION OVER MEDIUM AT OR BELOW MANDATE LEVEL
FED TO KEEP REINVESTING HOUSING DEBT TO MORTGAGE SECURITIES
FED SAYS HOUSING SECTOR REMAINS DEPRESSED
LACKER DISSENTS FROM FOMC DECISION


And if markets are surprised by this goose-egg according to which the September FOMC will at best be the ZIRP extension that was supposed to take place today just so Congress can sort its own mess out with the Fed, wait until Draghi confirms what we said last week: that he was merely posturing and is totally impotent without the Buba's blessing. Then you will see pain in a market which is 5% higher than where it would be absent his headfaked posturing.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #45,372
  • Aug 1, 2012 3:33pm Aug 1, 2012 3:33pm
1m bollinger is too tight, something will happen soon. This thing looks like it wants to fall off a cliff once consolidation brings RSIs high enough to short more

Curious if Asia will follow through.

Upset with myself for not staying short yesterday from 2328 However hard to complain on a winning day.

I need to pay attention to my own signature I guess.

I'm off, enjoy your day/evening everyone
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #45,373
  • Aug 1, 2012 3:39pm Aug 1, 2012 3:39pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
70 pip drop in 5-10 mins followed by 40 pip bounce followed by more selling and lots of volatility as scalping long is worth it when RSIs are at 10, lol

or do you mean recap of FOMC statement?

I know some don't like ZeroHedge but you can't deny their analysis and charts have moments of brilliance. Sure they are a doom and gloom financial news website, but there is no reason not to be thinking doom and gloom at the moment, IMO

Bold is FOMC statement


Prayers Denied As Fed Disappoints - Full Statement Redline
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/01/2012...
Thank you for the recap R2R. How did you do? I had a short at 1.2300 and A/U short at 1.0525.
  • #45,374
  • Edited Aug 2, 2012 12:22am Aug 1, 2012 3:54pm | Edited Aug 2, 2012 12:22am
Hi guys,

Just woke up and see this. What a nice moves. GL and safe trading




ADD : Closed my short with + 60 green pips. See u London / NY open.
Amendment : Chart - EURUSD 1/8/2012 (Wed).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #45,375
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:04pm Aug 1, 2012 4:04pm
Quoting AlwaysLost
Hi guys,

Just woke up and see this. What a nice moves. GL and safe trading
  • #45,376
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:12pm Aug 1, 2012 4:12pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I don't only draw fibs from all major swings. I also draw them from the swing lows or swing highs immediately preceding a major shift in sentiment. Very important.

ADD: See? I'm not the only one.

Attachment

I immediately draw fibs on faster tf from the recent legs, helps alot to anticipate where to reshort.
I always keep my chart simple, doesn't distract me
  • #45,377
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:18pm Aug 1, 2012 4:18pm
Who thinks the EUR will drop another 50-80 pips tomorrow? I do!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #45,378
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:23pm Aug 1, 2012 4:23pm
Quoting dbutton1990
Who thinks the EUR will drop another 50-80 pips tomorrow? I do!
All depends on Asia now. They haven't had a chance to react to the FOMC statement. As long as they don't have truckloads of USD to get rid of, then the pair might test 2170 overnight. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,379
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:41pm Aug 1, 2012 4:41pm
Quoting PipTrapper
All depends on Asia now. They haven't had a chance to react to the FOMC statement. As long as they don't have truckloads of USD to get rid of, then the pair might test 2170 overnight. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
I am short on the EURO. ECB will destroy it tomorrow IMO
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #45,380
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:58pm Aug 1, 2012 7:58pm
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Thank you for the recap R2R. How did you do? I had a short at 1.2300 and A/U short at 1.0525.
Very nice I'm glad someone caught those moves. I'm sure a lot of people from this thread did actually


50 pips, mostly from scalping during London. I only caught 20 pips of this down (2242 to 2222) move as I chickened out on my short from 2328 (i have no idea why was one of the stupidest decisions I've made in a while as the chance of a retest of 1.2330 area is almost guaranteed not to happen now, aka would have been a free trade I could hopefully ride down to 1.2050)


Right now I'm thinking retest of 2260s will limit the upside as some shorts are covering for tomorrow. Or they may just say to hell with it and keep shorting as they know Draghi can't do anything without Benny. Unless they raised interest rates which is just not going to happen.


Lol @ trading robots/EAs/algos.. I would never, ever trade with one

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