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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #45,301
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:18am Aug 1, 2012 7:18am
Quoting PipTrapper
I knew it would be higher but I was trying to be conservative.

Well this just adds one more argument against QE3
  • #45,302
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:21am Aug 1, 2012 7:21am
I guess there won't be much move tonight either !!!!
All busy waiting for Draghi tomorrow
  • #45,303
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:24am Aug 1, 2012 7:24am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
So 8,1,0 and 34,1,0?
That's correct for the Ribbon and setting the AllAverages the same just makes it "prettier"
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #45,304
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:26am Aug 1, 2012 7:26am
That is something, surprised everyone and we get a 12 pip move on the AUSUSD and EURUSD. Strange
  • #45,305
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:26am Aug 1, 2012 7:26am
Quoting sftyler
I guess there won't be much move tonight either !!!!
All busy waiting for Draghi tomorrow
Most of the USD losses in the last two weeks are more related to QE3 hopium and not Draghi relief.

If Benny fails to deliver what the market expects, we should see a major risk off sentiment.

The expectations from Draghi tomorrow are mixed. He's talked a big talk but not many believe he will be able to walk it. If he disappoints, then expect a Spanish and Italian bond yield rally as the 2's, 5's and 10's get dumped.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,306
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:29am Aug 1, 2012 7:29am
Quoting Islander
That's correct for the Ribbon and setting the AllAverages the same just makes it "prettier"
Thanks bud. It's a good buffer to trade only if PA breaks below or above the ribbon and the steeper the angle the better. I assume it keeps you from being trigger happy in ranging market.
  • #45,307
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:30am Aug 1, 2012 7:30am
Quoting sftyler
That is something, surprised everyone and we get a 12 pip move on the AUSUSD and EURUSD. Strange
Not that big a surprise really. If it was the Gov's version of NFP (Due Friday) then that would be a different story. The QE3 hopium wagon is still waiting for Benny later today because even if there is no QE3 announcement, he may drop a hint that one is coming at some point this year... and that's all the bandwagon members will need to get their crack fix.

Besides all that, the real reaction comes at NY opening bell.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,308
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:32am Aug 1, 2012 7:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
Most of the USD losses in the last two weeks are more related to QE3 hopium and not Draghi relief.

If Benny fails to deliver what the market expects, we should see a major risk off sentiment.

The expectations from Draghi tomorrow are mixed. He's talked a big talk but not many believe he will be able to walk it. If he disappoints, then expect a Spanish and Italian bond yield rally as the 2's, 5's and 10's get dumped.
Thanks for your input PT. Always good to get your view
  • #45,309
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:36am Aug 1, 2012 7:36am
Orderboard (updated)

Written by Pete Jackson
August 1, 2012 at 11:17 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2270/80, weak sell stops through 1.2270 ahead of bids 1.2240/50, more sell stops through 1.2235. Fibonacci supp around 1.2215 (50% retracement of July 24 low/Jul 27 high). Offers 1.2320/30. Buy stops through 1.2340. Decent sell orders up at 1.2380/00 ahead of barrier at 1.2400.

GBP/USD: Bids 1.5625/35 (1.5625 expiry) and 1.5550/60. Offers 1.5760/70 ahead of tech res 100 day MA 1.5781 and more offers 1.5790/00 ahead of barrier 1.5800, likely buy stops above

EUR/GBP: Bids 0.7840/45, stronger down at 0.7790/00 and 0.7750/60 (barrier 0.7750) Offers at 0.7870/80 ahead of tech res 0.7900/05

USD/JPY: Large bids at 77.80/90. Sell stops through 77.75 and 77.50. Offers start from 78.20/30 fromJapanexporters, ahead of tech res starts from Ichimoku Tenkan line around 78.38 up to 78.70. Buy stops through 78.70, and more up through 79.00.

EUR/JPY: Bids 95.70/80 and larger 95. 50/60, likely sell stops below. Offers 96.30/40 and 96.55/65 likely buy stops above ahead of tech res 97.30/35 (Fri highs)

AUD/JPY: Bids/tech supp 81.70/75 (81.71- 100 day MA) and 81.50/60 sell stops through 81.50, tech support 81.35/40 (81.35 200 day MA), more sell stops through 81.00. Offers/tech res 82.40/50 and tech res 82.85/90 (82.86 May 3 high)

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/30 buy stops through 1.2035 and through 1.2050

USD/CHF: Bids/tech supp 0.9735/45 and 0.9700/10, offers 0.9770/80 and 0.9810/20

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0500/10 and 1.0450/60 (exporters, ACB’s), some sell stops through 1.0450 and 1.0420. Offers 1.0540/50 (talk still of possible RBA commercial selling interest) ahead of 1.0550 barrier option interest.

EUR/AUD: Tech supp 1.1640/50. (1.1640 yesterday’s new all time low). Strong res up at 1.1755/65, possible stops through 1.17770 ahead of strong tech res up at 1.1850/55

NZD/USD: Tech res 0.8155/65. Decent bids (funds) 0.8080/90, some weak sell stops below ahead of tech support 0.8050/55 and 0.8000/10

USD/CAD: Bids 1.0000/10 ahead of a barrier at parity, likely sell stops just below ahead of tech supp 0.9955/60. Offers 1.0045/55 and tech res 1.0090/10 (100/200 day MA’s 1.0091/1.0106)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,310
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:42am Aug 1, 2012 7:42am
iin the short time horizon like next 24 to 48 hrs price has more of an upward pull than the downward,which is also confirm by cloud charts if u look through all the lower time frame chart from 4hr down to 15 min.the only charts which is bearish teritory is 8hrs,1day and weekly.i dont know when the fundamental trend going to kick in,may be after draghi meeting tommorrow.i think 450 and 500 will be a nice place to start accumalating dollars,i for definatley going to bring my big hammer at that level.considering all the above factor i have enter long limit position at 1.2250 lev 1:1 only just to keep myself doing something silly.i am sorry i havent posted any chart but later if time allow i will post some cloud chart ,but now all the beauties waiting for me with open arms,see u all later before Fomc meeting conclusion bye
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #45,311
  • Aug 1, 2012 7:57am Aug 1, 2012 7:57am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Thanks bud. It's a good buffer to trade only if PA breaks below or above the ribbon and the steeper the angle the better. I assume it keeps you from being trigger happy in ranging market.
The ribbon's simplist use is for pull backs in a move - i.e. like around Frankies Hour this morning. I use other methodologies when in a sideways market - as the rest of today so far (excluding the news spikes) is really a 30 pip consolidation box......but I'm getting off piste and into what some describe as scalping........but then we can only trade what The Market offers us......so far a 56 pip range...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #45,312
  • Aug 1, 2012 8:09am Aug 1, 2012 8:09am
Quoting Islander
The ribbon's simplist use is for pull backs in a move - i.e. like around Frankies Hour this morning. I use other methodologies when in a sideways market - as the rest of today so far (excluding the news spikes) is really a 30 pip consolidation box......but I'm getting off piste and into what some describe as scalping........but then we can only trade what The Market offers us......so far a 56 pip range...
Hi Islander
Market were showing slowing ,
and gave some nice hints on the 5 min ,,,nothing more .

Cheers
aligater
born to speculate
  • #45,313
  • Aug 1, 2012 8:23am Aug 1, 2012 8:23am
THE ADP numbers are not reliable so be very careful here.

I am happy it is HIGHER as now Humpty Dumpty will have a bigger fall.

Ben Bernake in the role of Humpty and Drachi in thr role of Dumpty.

Can we gave a picture of the most beautiful women in the World?

PipTrapper can decide for us as his choice of images is excellent.

PLEASE NO HAIRY ARMPITS.

RISK OFF TODAY and my early guess for NFP is 75,000
  • #45,314
  • Aug 1, 2012 8:32am Aug 1, 2012 8:32am
Gold is trading @ 1600, droped almost 27$ since yesterday
why isn't that the case in euro?
  • #45,315
  • Aug 1, 2012 8:53am Aug 1, 2012 8:53am
Quoting mka_78
Gold is trading @ 1600, droped almost 27$ since yesterday
why isn't that the case in euro?
gold has been ranging from $162x to $155x.. gold hit its resistance and now going down to 155x support, this has been happening since may 7th week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdh421.gif Size: 37 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #45,316
  • Aug 1, 2012 9:13am Aug 1, 2012 9:13am
Chop chop retail trader!
Attached Image
  • #45,317
  • Aug 1, 2012 9:20am Aug 1, 2012 9:20am
Major equity trading house in U.S is having problems with their Algorithm thus effecting equities market and spilling over to FX market.
  • #45,318
  • Aug 1, 2012 9:22am Aug 1, 2012 9:22am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Chop chop retail trader!
with judicious use of the chop-sticks the alert ID trader can get a tasty meal in small bites......this time the hit on the 2323 level in a high vol semi marubozo was the one at which I banked a few long pips.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #45,319
  • Aug 1, 2012 9:28am Aug 1, 2012 9:28am
Quoting Islander
with judicious use of the chop-sticks the alert ID trader can get a tasty meal in small bites......this time the hit on the 2323 level in a high vol semi marubozo was the one at which I banked a few long pips.....
Too nasty for me bro. Patience.
  • #45,320
  • Aug 1, 2012 9:29am Aug 1, 2012 9:29am
If Ben Bernanke was the director of Tuesday's market movie, he’d be yelling “CUT” from the chair.

With the all-important upcoming European Central Bank meeting and of course, the FOMC, Ben was hoping for more bad news being “good news” to fit the scenario for the last installment of his quantitative easing trilogy. But leave it to the economists to be…gasp…wrong. Much of the economic data release Tuesday strayed from the script. The casting call was for desperate out of work Americans who have lost all hope and have taken to living in tents.

Instead, confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly rose for the first time in five months as Americans became more upbeat about job prospects later this year. Why folks are more upbeat defies conventional wisdom (aka no real jobs to speak of), but the Conference Board’s index increased to 65.9 this month from 62.7 in June. Those “negative Nancy” Economists projected a reading of 61.5, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. In addition, the Chicago PMI rose to 53.7, beating once again, the “downer” economist’s expectations. Finally, the S&P/Case-Schiller index of property values in 20 cities decreased 0.7 percent from May 2011.The median forecast of 29 gloom and doomers -a 1.4 percent fall.

While the economy is far from robust, all of Tuesday’s releases beat expectations. Of course the markets continue to follow their own script of the "Twilight Zone" where economic fundamentals are just extras, and rumor and innuendo are the stars. Without any new talk about ECB or FOMC action, the markets are headed south.

Now let’s all convene to the craft services trailer and have a union break while we wait for director's Ben and Mario to roll tape after the meetings. By the way, Ben’s meeting is Wednesday and Super Mario’s is Thursday.



Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”








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