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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #45,261
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:32am Aug 1, 2012 4:32am
Germany’s Vice chancellor Roesler: Fiscal discipline and reforms the only way forward for the Euro

Written by Pete Jackson
August 1, 2012 at 09:25 GMT

■Merkel agrees an ESM Banking license is ’not our way’
■ECB must remain independent and is resposnsible for its own actions
■ECB should concentrate on its core monetary remit
■Arguments to strengthen the euro are clearly on Germany’s side
■Reducing rate pressure on Eurozone states in trouble reduces pressure on them to achieve reforms
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,262
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:32am Aug 1, 2012 4:32am
A mirror is simple. It has no shape or image of its own. If it did, it would not be able to reflect the image of other things. Simplicity is what makes a mirror a mirror.

Beyond our world is an Infinite Light, the origin of all that is. Relative to our world it is a nothingness. So simple and void, we feel as though we have no source at all. So formless, it is able to reflect whatever form we choose to show it from below.

Try it. Look up and celebrate. The heavens will celebrate along with you.
Simple.
  • #45,263
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:37am Aug 1, 2012 4:37am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Monthly close below 2287, good news for shorts

Took some off the table at 2288 though in anticipation of tomorrow.

Also took some profit in Aussie at 1.0470

NZD/USD shorts doing nothing might dump this one soon and wait for 82 area

On an unrelated note had 9 pars today, a record for a shitty golfer like me who can only drive the ball 220 yards. Shot +4 on the back 9 with 12 putts. +13 total with 28 putts (had a +4 on the first hole)

The only way I would prefer making money more than FX trading would be to be a professional golfer....
hi R2R,

Congrats on your round of golf, but excuse me to say that being a pro golfer is not as glam as it seems unless ur in the top 100 in the world, been there done that. On the other hand forex will take up just as much of ur time but far more fruitful and you don't need to be world class.

Same trading

Sftyler
  • #45,264
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:38am Aug 1, 2012 4:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
[b]Germany’s Vice chancellor Roesler: Fiscal discipline and reforms the only way forward for the Euro

Written by Pete Jackson
August 1, 2012 at 09:25 GMT

[i][color="DarkSlateBlue"] ■Merkel agrees an ESM Banking license is ’not our way’
■ECB must remain independent and is resposnsible for its own actions
■ECB should concentrate on its core monetary...
So... here's the translation.

1. No banking license for ESM.
2. ECB should only act within their mandate (Interest Rates and LTRO)
3. Germany wants a stronger Euro (Not in exchange rate terms but in confidence/stability terms) which can only be achieved by solid fiscal discipline.
4. ECB Buying Italian and Spanish bonds will only make Italy and Spain less fiscally responsible.

So, now we see what Draghi does. Oh boy is he ever going to disappoint the market. Now he has to do something, so expect another rate cut. 0.5% lending rate and -0.1% deposit rate would be my guess.

Anyway... stepping out for a bit. I'll be back by NY open.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,265
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:39am Aug 1, 2012 4:39am
Quoting Halifax
1.22145 is my line in the sand.....
Well Swissy's moving averages spoiled my party, pending missed by 10 pips

This would be my preferred scenario given that the retrace is already in motion. I might pull the order at 2216 but it depends on bearish momentum. If it is reached first with low momentum, I'll still give it a shot.

I figure small hopium, then Bernanke will disappoint, then small hopium, then ECB will disappoint, then no hopium, then jobs data disappoints something like that..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sigh.png Size: 18 KB
"Don't Panic..."
  • #45,266
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:48am Aug 1, 2012 4:48am
Excellent Analysis PT, as always!

I also agree with your chart analysis and can also see the Euro northbound... My levels are 1.2390 , 1.2450 and thereafter 1.26 & 1.2750 This final leg up could also be looked at as a bull trap being the final leg up of a correction wave being wave C where we have already wave A & B.

As you stated already, technically we can now go wither way. I have closed both my positions (my 1.2291 with a 10 pip loss & my 1.2364 with a 60odd pip profit) now as i truly am not sure where we go from here as both sides are widely open, but with current hopium and news data this week i feel the probability is in favour of the Euro.

However, i too remain bearish this pair and still believe the final bottoming of this pair is yet to be seen, where that bottom will be is unknown but my target of 1.17 will remain and if Euro does correct now to 1.2750 i will be happy to short again.

If anyone would like to add their own levels to go short or even go long please advise.

Happy and profitable trading to all!!!
Cheers!!
  • #45,267
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:00am Aug 1, 2012 5:00am
Quoting mka_78
Who knows, maybe sold and took profit
Yeah I just have a curious mind

Would be interesting to me to know but you are right who knows
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #45,268
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:02am Aug 1, 2012 5:02am
........................................
Attached Image
  • #45,269
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:16am Aug 1, 2012 5:16am
Quoting Halifax
Well Swissy's moving averages spoiled my party, pending missed by 10 pips

This would be my preferred scenario given that the retrace is already in motion. I might pull the order at 2216 but it depends on bearish momentum. If it is reached first with low momentum, I'll still give it a shot.

I figure small hopium, then Bernanke will disappoint, then small hopium, then ECB will disappoint, then no hopium, then jobs data disappoints something like that..

Attachment
You mean the 800EMA? 220 and 800EMA's offer great support/resistance. When ranging, PA likes to bounce off them. Especially when price is trading in between those two EMA's
  • #45,270
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:16am Aug 1, 2012 5:16am
Quoting sftyler
hi R2R,

Congrats on your round of golf, but excuse me to say that being a pro golfer is not as glam as it seems unless ur in the top 100 in the world, been there done that. On the other hand forex will take up just as much of ur time but far more fruitful and you don't need to be world class.

Same trading

Sftyler
Were you now? It's a lot of hard work I know, but I didn't mean for the money, I just think traveling and playing golf all the time would be great.

But I dont think we are suppose to talk about this during London and NY market hours.

You can PM me though and tell me about it if you want
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #45,271
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:17am Aug 1, 2012 5:17am
1m chart is going nuts great scalping off the bollinger bands and EMAs
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #45,272
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:36am Aug 1, 2012 5:36am
Starting to look bullish to me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd5maugust1.jpg Size: 253 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #45,273
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:41am Aug 1, 2012 5:41am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Starting to look bullish to me
It looks that way on the lower TF and from an intraday perspective. BB slanting up and squeezing, PA is above both EMA's and tdi has crossed up. Don't know how much price will move given FED today. Probably just ranging.
  • #45,274
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:49am Aug 1, 2012 5:49am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
It looks that way on the lower TF and from an intraday perspective. BB slanting up and squeezing, PA is above both EMA's and tdi has crossed up. Don't know how much price will move given FED today. Probably just ranging.
Agreed my guess is it will range as well. Maybe another move to 2335.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #45,275
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:49am Aug 1, 2012 5:49am
Quoting Islander
Thanks - I've actually posted 3 this morning....a daily, 15 min and 5 min - I assume its the later that you are refering to....visually quite simple - Buy retraces into the green ribbon, Sell retraces into the pink ribbon.....watch volumes and TVI for additional info....note the bearish divergance at the highs http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif Now, I've taken an add-on buy after the hit on the lower MA....
A nice set..did you write them?
where could I find the indicators you have in your charts?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #45,276
  • Aug 1, 2012 6:07am Aug 1, 2012 6:07am
standard & poor's cut spains sovereign debt rating by two notches to BBB+

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7Ws7RCrprQ...I/s1600/sc.jpg
  • #45,277
  • Aug 1, 2012 6:08am Aug 1, 2012 6:08am
Quoting luSan
A nice set..did you write them?
where could I find the indicators you have in your charts?
to Team GB's girls who have just won Gold in the rowing.....

No, I'm not good with 'puters - for me they're a "working tool"

For the All Averages and the Ribbon go back in this thread - I think July 25th when I posted them......if you don't find them, I'll repost - I'll look for the other 2 which I've also posted before....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #45,278
  • Edited 6:20am Aug 1, 2012 6:09am | Edited 6:20am
Muahah now I am the PipTrapper

Both ends of the 5m bollinger band

Just fully covered the short is all + a tiny long scalp

edit: closed the long premature but still got a few pips only risking a few pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd5maugust1.jpg Size: 264 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #45,279
  • Aug 1, 2012 6:18am Aug 1, 2012 6:18am
Quoting luSan
A nice set..did you write them?
where could I find the indicators you have in your charts?
The TVI comes for Medici's work in our old thread and the volume is from Sonic's thread.....both attached..
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 TVI_v2.ex4   9 KB | 190 downloads
File Type: mq4 MA ribbon filled.mq4   2 KB | 232 downloads
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #45,280
  • Aug 1, 2012 6:18am Aug 1, 2012 6:18am
Quoting Islander
The TVI comes for Medici's work in our old thread and the volume is from Sonic's thread.....both ttached..
Thanks.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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