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  • #672,901
  • Jul 28, 2012 5:57am Jul 28, 2012 5:57am
Quoting Mike8
Sorry but I think you should re-read my post:

First of all my "prediction" (which I do not belevie very much in, as stated) is not based on sentiment but on technicality (whatever that means) (see chart)

Secondly I said "If a daily candle closes above 1.2390 there is a good chance that prices will reach between 1.2520 and 1.2740. "

Thirdly I said: "Now, In what manner she will get there, honestly I do not have a clue."

Keep in mind that in the last four days she travelled around 340 pips in one direction.

And...
Bro this is why is good to keep eye on others thoughts over weekend, trying to predict direction at these levels is crazy, I have been suggesting since july open, these lvels is best for scalping, looking weekly this has panned out, with the exception of this weeks rally, although scalp buying 2131 was always on the cards,

Considering I normally sell, I be doing ok especially since may sell of this year and last year, the only time was most frustrated was ranging periods especially june throught to end august last year and january throught to april this year, is interesting tho bro, normally after an extended period of ranging, generally is a decent break out, example, last years range above, June - August 2011 bo dropped approx from 1 4573 to 1 3120 this years range as above Feb - March 30th pa dropped 1 3000 to 1 2066, do maths bro nice pips

This drive from 2736 to 2131 is from the smallest of the 3 weekly ranges since end of march last year
So if history is to repeat Start preparing trade plans for starting september there is possibility this girl hasnt fininshed 2131 and 2400, Monday and or August Open may decide for us

I will do chart is might be help understand what am try ing to say

But you is right, try get "in" with least loss and keep it simple.
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #672,902
  • Jul 28, 2012 5:59am Jul 28, 2012 5:59am
Quoting mercy seat
Yesterday ... and the day before there has been two Elliotticans with quite impressive posts here too ...

###

And yes ...

My nose sais it can decline at first while capped below Fridays turning point at the top there ...





;-|
Jawoll ...

Here it is ...

#671910

Beautiful ...

#672802

Isn't it?

###

And this one ...

#672803

Not that bad too ... I must say ...





;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #672,903
  • Jul 28, 2012 6:02am Jul 28, 2012 6:02am
I don't know , but everytime i look at the charts and try to see something different i keep seening " An Upward trend ". I'm going to stop looking at it for the entire day and maybe have a look on it again on Sunday, maybe i will something different or the truth will reveal itself.


@KiwiTrada: I consider your advise , but i'm going to risk a Small amount of Money and small lot - just to force my mental statue to be involve in the action when it happens and avoid sidelining. if i was correct, i will higher the leverage and increase the lot size. If i'm wrong , i will only lose a small amount of money.

I trade a bit risky and like to have it exciting , i'm not in it for money

But, i really appreciate your advice
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #672,904
  • Jul 28, 2012 6:13am Jul 28, 2012 6:13am
See you later ...

Some "home work" needs to be done at first ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #672,905
  • Jul 28, 2012 6:16am Jul 28, 2012 6:16am
KiwiTrada, do you think is a good moment to start selling AUDUSD and NZDUSD, since 25th July go up 300 pips without a retrace, i have in mind 1.0253
Can i know your opinion?
  • #672,906
  • Jul 28, 2012 6:43am Jul 28, 2012 6:43am
Quoting KillerWhale
I see what you mean, thanks
So in this case the bullish engulfing weekly candle would be valid.
I think so, It should be.. Take care
  • #672,907
  • Jul 28, 2012 6:53am Jul 28, 2012 6:53am
I agree with you. I can't stand politicians either. They are never accountable for anything. At least in the Middle Ages people were coming out with forks.. Anyway, I don't think these people are talking in a vacuum. They do talk to one another. I don't think Draghi said what he said on a whim. That doesn't necessarily mean they will be able to do what they say they're gonna do...
Quoting clambill
You know what? I don't know if any of the policy makers in the Eurozone ever read any of these messages. But, in case they do, I want to say something.

I'm fed up by the false promises by politicians!

Everyone has seen this before. There was even a list of false comments made by politicians in Europe at The Guardian web site. In French, some people call these "promesse de putin". In other words, a prostitute's promise. Who wants to hear prostitute's promises when traders want real information.

I'm...
  • #672,908
  • Jul 28, 2012 6:56am Jul 28, 2012 6:56am
Quoting Vachus
I don't know , but everytime i look at the charts and try to see something different i keep seening " An Upward trend ". I'm going to stop looking at it for the entire day and maybe have a look on it again on Sunday, maybe i will something different or the truth will reveal itself.


@KiwiTrada: I consider your advise , but i'm going to risk a Small amount of Money and small lot - just to force my mental statue to be involve in the action when it happens and avoid sidelining. if i was correct, i will higher the leverage and increase the lot...


Bro is your money, but sorry I take forex very serious, is my income and many rely me to be serious.

This is eu chart, it dosnt say up or down or anything really, what I can see, is "history does repeat, "sell in May go away", and ranges have very nice breakouts,
Now is pa at an important enough level to generate a decent thrust either up or down, I say yes, is fundies also brewing a shit storm, I say yes, normally bottom take longer than tops to form but if you look at the last top aprilish 2011 and bottom aprilish 2010 it is inverse, mmm, now what does bigger picture say weekly or monthly

We in a humungous bull flag, or falling channel, humungous, h ll lh ll lh ll??? so theoretically a falling chanel "is" a bear train, , however as we are below the mid of the channel we in dangerous territory for bears to maintain their dominance they 1st have to take out the previou weekly low 1876 then the ltl of the falling channel will come into play, rough estimate is 1154ish shit, I will definitely be tempted to shed fur for leather there, that will be ultimate battle.

These figurse may seem outrageous, but if you were looking at a 15min bull flag or channel, the principles are exactly the same, so numbers become irrelevant,

Then consider this bear train has been started at 4939, I was selling her then, was not many us, magix and ptl was anothers I remember, virtually everyone was bullish now @ a low of 2041 2898 pips lower, is rather sad, because many many many times all the way down has been the same story, her cant go any lower, noway her going lower, this is bottom, her going be a skyrocket blah blah blah, happily I have been selling her ass, getting stick poked at me, but at the end of the day, many of them bulls have disappeared, some buying dips (picking bottoms) have survived,
Scalpers and Daytraders have survived especially them who buy and sell.

Bro If this is bottom, I have missed this station on her but possibly caught geppy and cable, so I not that distressed
Aewww shit too many words again, sorry

hope doodle chart is helpful
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: doodle.png Size: 41 KB
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  • #672,909
  • Jul 28, 2012 6:58am Jul 28, 2012 6:58am
Quoting KiwiTrada
Bro this is why is good to keep eye on others thoughts over weekend, trying to predict direction at these levels is crazy, I have been suggesting since july open, these lvels is best for scalping, looking weekly this has panned out, with the exception of this weeks rally, although scalp buying 2131 was always on the cards,

Considering I normally sell, I be doing ok especially since may sell of this year and last year, the only time was most frustrated was ranging periods especially june throught to end august last year and january throught...
Clear and generous as usual Bro.

I belevie that there a constant struggle between bulls and bear all around the chart on any time frame.

Sometime I trade the equivalent of 30seconds TF in ticks without pipettes (number of tick various depending on data) when I am by myself and no family around (rarely lately)because focus is essential.

Specially in that very short TF you can feel the constant struggle between the parts, with pushing and pulling, (european and us session are best).

This constant battle is also happening in any TF but with the 30 seconds gives you a quick outcome.

In my view us as retailers we do not have the luxury to join in the middle of the battle but we need to stay aside and join in only when one of the parts lets go of the rope becoming the other side to cover, creating a double pressure.

In essence this what I belevie will give us a greater edge. Easy? No way. Doable? Of course. "Veni Vidi Vici" - "We come, We see, God conquers" Julius Caesar.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #672,910
  • Jul 28, 2012 7:19am Jul 28, 2012 7:19am
BTW, congrats to all the brits. Beautiful Olympics opening ceremony. Truly amazing.
  • #672,911
  • Jul 28, 2012 7:58am Jul 28, 2012 7:58am
Quoting Itrade24h
KiwiTrada, do you think is a good moment to start selling AUDUSD and NZDUSD, since 25th July go up 300 pips without a retrace, i have in mind 1.0253
Can i know your opinion?
hahahaha sorry i just see your post, am skype our group, bro

Kiwi and Aussie these simple chats mine is too messy

I dont know how much you keep eye these 2 girls bro but I watch closely, 1hr or 4hr when them in sync they awesome, higher timeframes they not sync, so just looking 4hr or lower, yes they is sync, yes they driving hard up rising chanels, yes they at resistance both them, but bro I although I do I wouldnt advise trying to pick top these channels, personally yes I think they tricky at moment.

Kiwi is within the break out zone of of her last Range it was a big ahole range too 5th of the 3rd month to 3rd of the 5th month (ironic aye) anyways 2 month sideways, however the breakout was awesome,

now pa is entering that bo zone, problem is she just broke up out of the recent range, so is tricky, 1 range bo against another, mmm,

if you zoom in 1 hr, the rising chanel she in is very forceful, and steep, she is tapping utl so rather than me try pick this top, I am going to wait, the ltl of this channel to breach, this should bring in the top of the recent range bo if her can get back into this range and hold, I would class the bo as false like the one at the bottom

Now remember she twin sister to aussie

Aussie is show 2 ranges with bo, the first acually had a nice retest, and rejection, then ll lh ll lh down to her next range

bro I did post much interest in this 2nd bo zone on the present rally, and her paid nice pips, work out the upper BO zone on you chart bro, and keep eye if her get there could be some nice pips, but might have to wait a long time maybe pending

Bro her has just spiked a little what I see as resistance, but possibly sl 1st above 0486 and/or above the rising channel, this is if you agressive, or wait and when see monday open, on 1hr could possibly be double top at resistance, previous 1hr candle prior to friday closing, was nice candle, but profit taking weekend chickens did another little rally i dont like friday late candles anyway

Normaly bro, safest is to buy the ltl of any rising channel, (trend) and take profit near utl, however, I will be waiting Mondays open see if is "gap" up hahaha and / or her reaction to 1st 0486 and/or the utl of the rising channel

Bro I normally sell weekly opens, but thats just me , no rush tho remember monthly open is mid week, I may sideline until then and sell that open.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aussie hr 29 7 2012.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: KIWI 4hr 29 7 2012.png Size: 37 KB
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  • #672,912
  • Jul 28, 2012 8:42am Jul 28, 2012 8:42am
Quoting attila
BTW, congrats to all the brits. Beautiful Olympics opening ceremony. Truly amazing.
It was much better than I expected
  • #672,913
  • Jul 28, 2012 10:00am Jul 28, 2012 10:00am
The first chart is from my last post here. The red 200 sma provided strong support along with the 50% fib of the decade long uptrend we saw that topped out at 1.6035.

That buy order was filled and tp'ed at 1.23.
i built sell orders above 1.23 up to 1.2388 which all tp'ed again at 1.23 late friday. 1.24 has a very strong option defense which was certain to fail (logically, anyway) on the first attempt. It failed Friday.

The 2nd chart is current from Friday. The current candle has 2 more days, and with the Hopium bullish market sentiment ahead of the ECB meeting Thursday, The pair will likely remain bid at support levels, until midweek.

Edit- the 3rd candle (May) is controlling this pair atm, and is bearish engulfing. The mid-point of that May candle is 1.2809. The June candle made a high of only 1.2746, confirming the bearish engulfing May candle, and a downtrend, short term.



Long term this pair is in a consolidation pattern from 1.6035 and won't be complete until 1.1875/1.640 previous swing lows are attempted. The range of this consolidation pattern is huge.

The current candle might close as a hammer if Market Sentiment remains Risk On.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd monthly.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd monthly 3.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #672,914
  • Edited 10:42am Jul 28, 2012 10:19am | Edited 10:42am
Looking at the 4 hour chart for eur/usd, we see that a short term bottom was made when price closed above the aqua colored 100 sma.

The red 200 sma is sitting around the 1.2406 price for now.

Hopium Market Sentiment (Risk On) should provide support at the 100 sma price levels, with attempts to test the option defense at 1.24/1.2450 price ahead of the ECB meeting on thursday.

Risk Off market sentiment would negate this view. and re-test the 100 sma, brown 55 sma and green 22 sma to the downside.

The 100 sma is sitting around the 1.2240 price level.

My strategy this week is to range trade the pair.

Buying above 1.2240 with s.l. below that sma targeting the red 200 sma but just below it.

I have sell orders just below the red 200 with stops above it, in case of a breakout.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd 4 hour.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #672,915
  • Edited 11:18am Jul 28, 2012 10:35am | Edited 11:18am
The aud/chf has been trading exactly opposite the eur/usd lately. I like a long positon on this pair because it pays over 15 dollars a day swap interest on a full lot position.
This carry trade is risky, and depends on Risk On market sentiment to go up.
My stop loss is +3 pips on this position so it is risk free.

I also use it as a hedge against eur/usd as long as the contra correlation holds.

Edit- I use this pair as a "savings account". Once the S.L. is at break even there is no safer place to park a small amount of your money. I am not in this position for pip gain, merely interest accrual for as long as it holds.
Do the math. 15 dollars per day swap interest (IBFX) equals 105 dollars a week, or 420 dollars a month interest on a full lot position with no risk after b/e stop is in place.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud chf.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #672,916
  • Jul 28, 2012 10:45am Jul 28, 2012 10:45am
Quoting KiwiTrada
hahahaha sorry i just see your post, am skype our group, bro

Kiwi and Aussie these simple chats mine is too messy

I dont know how much you keep eye these 2 girls bro but I watch closely, 1hr or 4hr when them in sync they awesome, higher timeframes they not sync, so just looking 4hr or lower, yes they is sync, yes they driving hard up rising chanels, yes they at resistance both them, but bro I although I do I wouldnt advise trying to pick top these channels, personally yes I think they tricky at moment.

Kiwi is within the break out...
Thanks a lot for the info! lets see what happen monday!
  • #672,917
  • Jul 28, 2012 12:16pm Jul 28, 2012 12:16pm
Quoting simao
non they will execute your order at the available price after market opening, you will loose more on this my friend !
how come
  • #672,918
  • Jul 28, 2012 12:24pm Jul 28, 2012 12:24pm
-Schauble news denying Spanish bond buying throws the bears a bone. Sets up PA for next week IMO.
-price already hit 239 levels to close at 23. 50SMA on a 21 RSI window close to crossing on 1H - indicates downward movement.
-my RSI seems to have broken the upward trend line (of sometime) as well.

Just my two cents. I'm going to hold off on any longs. Wait for complete confirmation on Monday. Then bearish short term!
  • #672,919
  • Jul 28, 2012 2:15pm Jul 28, 2012 2:15pm
Quoting TheVTandon
-Schauble news denying Spanish bond buying throws the bears a bone. Sets up PA for next week IMO.
-price already hit 239 levels to close at 23. 50SMA on a 21 RSI window close to crossing on 1H - indicates downward movement.
-my RSI seems to have broken the upward trend line (of sometime) as well.

Just my two cents. I'm going to hold off on any longs. Wait for complete confirmation on Monday. Then bearish short term!
Jawoll ...

Not the badest post here ...

Willkommen an Bord ...



2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #672,920
  • Jul 28, 2012 2:28pm Jul 28, 2012 2:28pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
Bro is your money, but sorry I take forex very serious, is my income and many rely me to be serious.

This is eu chart, it dosnt say up or down or anything really, what I can see, is "history does repeat, "sell in May go away", and ranges have very nice breakouts,
Now is pa at an important enough level to generate a decent thrust either up or down, I say yes, is fundies also brewing a shit storm, I say yes, normally bottom take longer than tops to form but if you look at the last top aprilish 2011 and bottom aprilish 2010...
Hey KiwiTrada, having a good weekend?
What do you think, Aussie turning point @ 1.05xx?
It has been following this channel religiously.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 4 hr 7-28-12.gif Size: 27 KB
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