EURUSD

Number three:

2012-07-27_23h55_ EURUSD _ xWeeks _ (200) candlestickchart + PSAR (Pivot)

Our beloved weekly chart ...






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Number four:

2012-07-27_23h55_ EURUSD _ xmonth _ (200) candlestickchart + PSAR (Pivot)

A monthly chart which has still not seen its closing ...






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Number five:

2012-07-27_23h55_ EURUSD _ xQuart _ (150) candlestickchart + PSAR (Pivot)

And last but not least a quarterly chart which has still not seen its closing ...






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And especially this one ...

Our beloved 3-Day chart ...

2012-07-27_23h55_ EURUSD _ x-3Day _ (150) candlestickchart + PSAR (Pivot)

It shows a similar behaviour as we could have been observed in June 2010 when prices has been hit its trough in aprox. 1.1874 zone ... before it did start the rallies after a short consolidation activity phase ...

A doji did occur in both cases ...

I don't say that we will see such a rallies again ... but it is still a possible turnaround while not cut below previous lows ...

In summer 2010 we have had an almost 2 weeks sideways consolidation after first small move up ... and we all know that it did prevail in a so-called inverse H&S pattern later ...






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Sorry for the double post.. I had to delete my last post as I have made some edits to my GOLD chart for the week ahead ..

I have updated my GOLD chart with new supports I find important for next week .. And have posted EURO Daily with my comments..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...77#post5884077

Well, there are many salesman in this business. Why? Because there is a demand, some will say many suckers, people looking for the easy fix.

I read harmonic trading V1 and a few others pdf's by him and I did not need all the "gadgets". In my view the theories has its value because its reversal point are a confluence of Fibonacci retracements and projections to determine exhaustion and overbought/sold.

Personally I think the theory has more of an impact on stock and futures and less in currencies because the forex tend to trend more.

Well, as a trader as you probably already know I do not try to predict where she is going to go, because that give me a bias and with a bias I tend subconsciously to disregard all the signals in the opposite direction.

But for the sake of companionship, I will say what is possible to happen.

This is weekly chart: If a daily candle closes above 1.2390 there is a good chance that prices will reach between 1.2520 and 1.2740.

Now, In what manner she will get there, honestly I do not have a clue.

That was not the case. Just look for candles which break both previous low and high.

Its funny, when the price go up for 2 or 3 days, the traders feel so excited that think the price will continue going up like a arrow.
Really you think the price will go up 400 pips more in a easy way?
The most probable for this week is the price be in a range of 200 pips, maybe the next friday we will see 1.25 if draghi wants, if not we can see 1.22

1.27? Wow...for see 1.27 the BCE must buy billions of euro debt...

Pending Long at 1.23230
Expecting a gap up

Hello comrade ...

On what is your desion based?

And moreover ...

Do you really think it is a good idea to try out such things?

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Whatever ... it is a fact that your pending order must have been activated before latest order could have been activated at a late Friday session before your finance services plugged out ...

There are not many services that do allow such things even during the week-end hours ...

They do exist ... but they are very rare ... and you know that ...

And of course Oanda is not the only one who did (I don't know even if they still do nowadays, but they are an online shop) or who can offer such things ...

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Anyway ... what makes you to take such a decision ... ?

Sorry ... I'm just a little bit curious ...

Bro way way way too dangerous try to predict weekend movement, minimal liquidity, maximum manipulation, tech and fundy mean nothing, is even worse, cant do anything about it until open Monday, "if"there is huge gap, if is go your way is no garauntee pending will be picked up, if go against you almost gaurantee sl will not be activated and gauranteed you best fill will be absolute worst fill for you.

Trade over weekend, without maximum protection, is nothing but gambling. bor wait monday open, work with what real pas is show you

Oanda no open weekends no more

Yes ... exactly ... well said ...

FOREX WEEK AHEAD: Central-Bank Meetings, U.S. Jobs Data in Focus


28 Jul 2012, 04:46



By Anusha Shrivastava



The euro could keep strengthening in the coming week as anticipation rises for central-bank meetings to deliver some help to the global economy, but with thin volume and the monthly U.S. jobs report also in the cards, trading is certain to be volatile.

Investors are increasingly expecting action on the part of the Federal Reserve as well as the European Central Bank, which are both scheduled to meet in the week. The Fed, unhappy with the economic outlook, may announce new measures like a bond-buying program or a plan to keep interest rates low past 2014. The ECB could introduce its own set of programs in an effort to resolve the ongoing sovereign-debt crisis.

The fates of the dollar and the euro will be linked to any word from these banks.

"It'll be rocky," said Robert Fullem, a foreign-exchange trader at Mizuho Corp. Bank in New York. "There will be a pickup in risk appetite heading into the meetings."

Mr. Fullem expects the euro to rise to $1.26 in the coming week, but warned the bounce could be short-lived unless the ECB's measures are effective.

Ahead of the central-bank meetings, the euro rose to a three-week high Friday, boosted by ECB President Mario Draghi saying Thursday the central bank would do whatever it takes to preserve the common currency and echoes of the thought from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's President Francois Hollande.

"Central bankers across the globe are clearly oriented to accommodation at this point," Andrew Cox, currency strategist at Citi, wrote in a note. "Expectations may be running ahead of reality and we could get a quick unwinding of the recent short-covering rally on any disappointment."

Rhetoric aside, if the ECB restarts its bond-buying program, cuts rates or offers another round of cheap loans to banks through its Long-Term Refinancing Operation, the euro could be well-supported against the dollar in the short term, said Mark McCormick, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. But if any of the programs led to an increase in the balance sheet of the ECB, the common currency could be hurt, Mr. McCormick said.

The Bank of England is also meeting, though market participants aren't expecting the bank to ease further just yet. Mr. Cox at Citi said the sterling could "stay under pressure given increasing fears of economic stagnation and increasing expectations of further quantitative easing."

No matter the central bank moves, the monthly payrolls number in the U.S. is the big wild card that could provide the strongest clues yet on how soon the Fed may take action.

If the Fed introduces a new program or changes the timetable for rate increases at its upcoming meeting, the payrolls data won't be as important--but if it doesn't, the employment figures are certain to move the market, said Alvise Marino, currency strategist at Credit Suisse in New York.

"The odds are still in favor of the Fed not doing anything this week but waiting til September," said Mr. Marino said, noting expectations are running high for the central bank to do something.

That said, "we are entering August and it's the first week of the Olympics so the markets will be thin and volumes may be low," Mr. Marino said. "We will probably see a lot of chopping around."





July 27, 2012 22:46 ET (02:46 GMT)

Sorry but I think you should re-read my post:

First of all my "prediction" (which I do not belevie very much in, as stated) is not based on sentiment but on technicality (whatever that means) (see chart)

Secondly I said "If a daily candle closes above 1.2390 there is a good chance that prices will reach between 1.2520 and 1.2740. "

Thirdly I said: "Now, In what manner she will get there, honestly I do not have a clue."

Keep in mind that in the last four days she travelled around 340 pips in one direction.

And for the sake of the conversation myself I am not excited about anything, I do not care where she goes, for what I am concern my job is to find out which is the direction of least resistance and try to jump on the wagon without losing more than necessary.

Yesterday the market went down I went short, then market turned, I was able to cover my short at BE and went heavily long.

I do not know where she want to go and to be honest less I know better it is. Hope it helps.

I'm very curious atm ...

As I suppose normally from Vachus we can get some jolly good and authentic argumentation ...

Okay ... unfortunately he left us atm ...

I can wait

Hello And good morgen Mercy Seat :

Unfortunately i don't think i'm able to insert the order, i have to wait for Oanda trading hour - which will be Monday early morning and i'm still thinking about.

There are few reasons for that :

1- There seems to be an agreement or at least silence to MR. Draghni speech and not many have voiced out their opposition high engouh. Which lead me to think, that Europeans are actually benefiting from getting Spain a bit far from the dangerous zone. On the other hand , the German Financial minister at Mid week reinstated that Greece will be supported to over come the current economic difficulties. So, this leads me to think , that some green movement is needed to avoid PANIC ( Which is not to anyone interest ).

2- The current price 1.23211 has penetrated again the resistance level at 1.23160. ( The last time it did that was two hours before closing yesterday and the price shooted 50 Points up ) This area is really an interesting one, because its a bit similar to MAY and April 2012 that had potential buyers despit the down trend at these times.

3- At 1.23500 which has been penetrated has even more heavy potential buyers , in comparison to the small block between 1.22530 and 1.23000 ! Which drives me to think that at the current price we have , there should be more buyers than sellers.

4- The British pound is going to kick the shit out USD ( But this one i'm not sure of its relationship to the Euro and how far it can effect it )

However, i haven't taken my decision yet and will think about more ..

Cheers Mate

Yesterday ... and the day before there has been two Elliotticans with quite impressive posts here too ...

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And yes ...

My nose sais it can decline at first while capped below Fridays turning point at the top there ...





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Okay ...

Thank you ...

Well ... our central DPP is sitting around 1.2311 / 16 atm ...

Settlement has been around aprox. 1.23 figure ...

Options and Futueres as well as Forewards has seen its settlements there ...

Now we can see some price indications at around 1.2320/25 ...

Has not that much relevance ... but rrright you are it rejeceted from 1.2280 towards 1.2330 (almost 50 points brutto) and I think some might have been happy to cover their shorts as well prior to week-end ...

That's all ... not a real technical issue ...

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But thank you for your reply




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