EurAnalysis

Greed is correct but it's not about the position sizes. Just to wish for more pips to close or to close it now due to the wild news.

your was a good trade,congratulation for the pips,u know i missed that 2380 trade by a whisker,probably i was not confident enough to increase my leverage any further at that point thanks anyway for the response,happy green pips

Mutiny At The ECB?

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/27/2012 14:26 -0400

A lot of desk chatter about this move in risk-assets - and the entire reversion to red on the day in EURUSD - as a WSJ report now circulating suggests that ECB members are not backing reported proposals by President Draghi. Specifically, the statement referenced is the following: "Many ECB Members Surprised By Draghi's Comments Suggesting New Bond Buys, Source Tells WSJ". The bottom line here is that Draghi most likely pulled a Mario Monti (and his hanger on Mariano Rajoy), and spoke up before pre-clearing with Buba's Weidmann. Draghi thinks that, like Monti with Merkel at the June 29 summit, he can bluff the Bundesbank into submission, and Germany will agree to monetization, especially if markets have risen enough where nothing out of the ECB next week leads to a market plunge (as the WSJ explains below). The problem is that as we patiently explained, Monti got absolutely no concessions our of Merkel, as was seen in the bond yields of Spain after the June 29 summit, which hit record wides a few weeks later. Expect the same this time around too: i.e., Germany will hardly cave in to the European beggars.
From the WSJ:

Of course, the markets may have simply over-reacted to Mr. Draghi’s speech in London, or he may not have intended to give the impression he did. But either way, Italian and Spanish sovereign bond yields crept back up again before easing as the French newspaper Le Monde suggested the ECB is indeed preparing to buy Spanish and Italian debt in co-operation with euro-zone governments. Stocks and the euro moved up, down and then back up again. If this sounds chaotic, it is. But one thing is sure. If the ECB does nothing next week, the markets will tumble.

Further, from Citi's European GC desk:

Mr.Draghi surprise outburst to defend EUR and possibly the government bond yields took many off guard yesterday. The knee jerk risk on move suffice to say has helped to pull peripheral bonds well below its highs with Spain now yielding ~6.6% in 10yr, off the highs of ~7.5%. We doubt the rally will last as a long term trend for number of reasons despite Mr. Draghi’s comment that “IF PREMIA ON GOVT BORROWING HURT MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISION, THEY COME WITHIN OUR MANDATE”.

First, even if Mr. Draghi manages to wiggle out the SMP from the locked box, it won’t change reality in the long run as we have seen last year when yields continued to increase during sporadic bond purchases. Instead they only provide opportunity for the market to sell their holdings and reduce the liquidity available for certain bonds, as well as increase both the specialness of the bond and the fails rate. There are talks of alternatives, i.e. reducing the haircut of the existing haircuts on collateral which would boost amount of cash to the banks or widening collateral eligibility etc. But none of them address the underlying problem of the Euro. In some perspectives a large consistent SMP buying would bring down the yields and give more time for Spain, albeit their unemployment rate was rising again to 24.6% in the second quarter vs. 24.4% in the prior 3 months. Labour reform anybody? Spanish competitiveness? How to fix this staggering figure is more important.

Just remember that recorded behavior of E/U pair is that the 80 and 20 price levels are magnets for some reason on this pair. Price is attracted to it quite frequently and will reverse or bounce of those numbers. So depending on strength of trend or where PA is for the day, it is a safe bet to place pending orders at those levels IMO. Look where we went with the recent drop. 1.2380-1.2280 as example of tonight's PA. Another reason why I banked the pips before it bounced too far off 1.2280.

greed,fear,panic and position size and how u manage ur trade are absolutely inter-related.
i think Greed is the most basic element in trading and position sizing,panic,fear is a function of it.if u dont balance ur greed to the point where it has least influence on ur trading entry and exit,it is difficult to prosper in this business.i will suggest u study PT,why he play the way he play,with small positions u will know he is wise.and wisdom is a function of experience and knowledge.hope i make sense.God bless u with lot of green pips.

Just released: According to CFTC, Net EURO short positions decrease by 9% this week. U.S dollar longs decrease 23%.

Mission accomplished El Draghi! #ssh#le!

my favourite number is 63. i hope u dont confuse it with 69

Personally I think Draghi’s going to have his hands full with some ECB members

By Gerry Davies || July 27, 2012 at 18:14 GMT
|| 32 comments || Add comment
Just sayin……
Those of you who bothered to read my European morning wrap would have noted I mentioned “very decent sell orders lined up 1.2380/00″
You know who told me that; just one of the biggest forex banks in the World. How ya like those onions?

#63 is Beef and broccoli Doc. Good choice.

I don't know why I have a feeling that a HS is building on the H1, let's wait and see

Ok guys. Last call! That's it for me. Have a great weekend. Don't forget to spend time with family, friends and loved one. Hug them and tell them you love em!

This weekend ask yourself, "How did I get here"? Enjoy!

!

Yet again we are going to be stuck between 2287 and 2300?

Watching the weekly close yet again near these levels

[quote=FXSwissTrader;5883635]Ok guys. Last call! That's it for me. Have a great weekend. Don't forget to spend it with family, friends and loved one. Hug them and tell them you love em!

This weekend ask yourself, "How did I get here"? Enjoy!

Thanks for the video and "Mutiny At The ECB?" . To u too have great weekend with family, friends n loves one and be happy

Have a great weekend with family, loves one and friends & be happy

Ill get it done this weekend my friend

Looks to me like much of this move is just establishing the range until the senior traders and major players come back in september. Structurally and fundamentally the EZ is still doomed. Even Draghis strong words cannot stop the debt crises as they are absolutely limited and in fact have already been heavily monetizing debt in the secondary markets for some time now.

On the USD front it is obviously the lemmings are getting restless about QE3. The fed has been unwilling to launch more easing because they are on record saying that the consequences of more easing still outweigh the benefits at this time. Fact is even with poor GDP we have had More than half a year with consistent positive growth. In perspective with the rest of the world this is MUCH better than the norm. I expect US treasuries and the USD to continue strengthening from these levels.

I still favor fresh shorts and to stick with selling rallies.

Ill review the entirety of the markets

+6% this week. I am very thankful and remain humble for what I have been able to get out of these markets.

Enjoy your weekend everybody

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
– Ludwig von Mises
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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/bo...pagewanted=all

From the opening of this latest book on the government’s (mis)handling of the 2008-9 financial crisis, Neil Barofsky establishes his populist narrative from his two-plus years as the “TARP cop” overseeing the $700 billion big-bank bailout officially known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Enlarge This Image
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Patricia Wall/The New York Times



BAILOUT


An Inside Account of How Washington Abandoned Main Street While Rescuing Wall Street


By Neil Barofsky
270 pages. Free Press. $26.





Multimedia


http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...-thumbWide.jpg
Neil Barofsky Talks TARP and Ever After

 

1. Fair Game: Into the Bailout Buzz Saw(July 22, 2012)

Neil Barofsky at a hearing of the Senate Finance Committee in 2010.


Mr. Barofsky, a former Manhattan prosecutor, is the idealistic alien sent in an emergency to Planet Washington, where he does battle with the self-important, self-serving powers entrenched there or simply taking a spin through its revolving door to Wall Street. He is SIGTARP (in Washington-speak, the Special Inspector General for TARP). But ultimately he is outmatched, and evil triumphs over good.

In the preface to “Bailout: An Inside Account of How Washington Abandoned Main Street While Rescuing Wall Street,” it is April 2010, and after more than a year on the job, Mr. Barofsky is meeting for a clear-the-air drink with one of his nemeses, Herbert Allison, the former head of the financial giants Merrill Lynch, TIAA-CREF and Fannie Mae, who came out of retirement to run the bank-rescue program for the Treasury Department. Mr. Barofsky, wearing an unseasonal wool suit at odds with a “Washington-appropriate wardrobe,” is poised to let the hostess seat them at a front table of her choosing, but Mr. Allison insists on a private table in the rear. Then he gets down to business.

“Have you thought at all about what you’ll be doing next?” Mr. Allison asks Mr. Barofsky, soon adding, “Out there in the market, there are consequences for some of the things that you’re saying and the way that you’re saying them.”

“Allison was essentially threatening me with lifelong unemployment,” Mr. Barofsky concludes, and alternatively suggesting a plum government appointment some day if Mr. Barofsky would simply “change your tone.”

Wow.. What happened while I was gone? Friggin hurricane passed through here by the looks of it.

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My 1.2360 sell limit got triggered so now I have 3 shorts in very good green, 1 at BE, 1 very slightly underwater and 2 moderately underwater. However, I'm still in the high green on average and there's still a long way to go to BE (around 1.32xx or somewhere around there). I haven't calculated it to the pip yet.

I hope nobody got their fingers burned today. As long as you were all using sound risk management, then you'll all live to hammer the crap out of this pair once Benny and Draghi disappoint the hopium parade next week.

Hope you all have a nice restful weekend.

Good night.

Looking forward to it

Don't worry. I bought myself a nice 10" Android tablet today and I plan on taking it with me whenever I leave my desk from now on.

https://lh6.ggpht.com/FZrXSQOV1-3WwO...er2Liy0qI2JSeM https://lh6.ggpht.com/byeLFKw4dU41dO...u2R_2OqIVpM_EQ