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  • #672,401
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:08pm Jul 26, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting Vachus
The disruption happens due to news or rummers that may effect the markets, forcing it to move in irrational way ... otherwise , trends will always go up or down without corrections. Can you please tell me, how on any rational level of logic a few words of the ECB president can move the Euro market 200 points up ? The guy didn't speak about machnism or even real solutions to get the Euro out of its crisis ..

i really wonder if he made this statement " In one Month, ECB will buy all EU countries in debt or bonds. All austrity measures are not needed...
there are some very fundamental misconceptions addressed here:

trend: what defines a trend? price went up as long as the trend(short term) prevailed until the opposing long term bearish trend becomes more attractive again and resumes. at some point there won't be any people left who want to sell so naturally price could only retrace.

this is also a matter of scale which brings us to fractals, elliott for example. are we in an up or down trend? this depends on the timeframe you are looking at and often you find opposing trends in alternating TFs

disruption: price action is not disrupted but on the contrary it is in equilibrium between supply and demand.

irrational: price simply follows market demand and supply and as such this is entirely rational. just because it does not make sense to you does not mean that it is what it seems.

I believe I know what you want to say and you are right that it often takes little to have great impact, but that is how it is. not many things in life are deterministic but usually fluctuating somwhere between dynamic to chaotic.
and again this is where harmonics come to play and the reference here would be fibonnacci.

take a little impulse with a bit of 'risk on' and add group behaviour and voila we have a mover. so what. there is no point opposing this logic nor to oppose PA. simply follow the flow(yes I know that is not easy), observe and make sense of what you see even if at first it doesn't - market always does.
  • #672,402
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:16pm Jul 26, 2012 5:16pm
Quoting 2046
there are some very fundamental misconceptions addressed here:

trend: what defines a trend? price went up as long as the trend(short term) prevailed until the opposing long term bearish trend becomes more attractive again and resumes. at some point there won't be any people left who want to sell so naturally price could only retrace.

this is also a matter of scale which brings us to fractals, elliott for example. are we in an up or down trend? this depends on the timeframe you are looking at and often you find opposing trends in alternating...
Markets don't follow anyone , in few years by now Fractals and EW will simply stop working ... as spot market is determined by individuals goals and emotions , the field of misconception and deception will also increase ! Just like evolution

Ps: i don't disagree with any of what you said , on any level BTW
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #672,403
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:21pm Jul 26, 2012 5:21pm
Quoting KillerWhale
The funny part of wave theories is that no one ever seems to know in what wave we are in.

there are always multiple counts but I make a living from it
  • #672,404
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:22pm Jul 26, 2012 5:22pm
Quoting Vachus
Markets don't follow anyone , in few years by now Fractals and EW will simply stop working ... as spot market is determined by individuals goals and emotions , the field of misconception and deception will also increase ! Just like evolution

Ps: i don't disagree with any of what you said , on any level BTW
forget about any emotions - act the way u r! rule n.2
  • #672,405
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:23pm Jul 26, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting Vachus
Markets don't follow anyone , in few years by now Fractals and EW will simply stop working ... as spot market is determined by individuals goals and emotions , the field of misconception and deception will also increase ! Just like evolution

Ps: i don't disagree with any of what you said , on any level BTW
I like some of what you say but the highlighted is rubbish...... unless you are saying each and every individual will be in complete agreement you will always get supply/demand points and therefore fractals and therefore waves........
  • #672,406
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:23pm Jul 26, 2012 5:23pm
For the ones that got the spike.....you may consider it.....

http://video.corriere.it/f12-berline...b-b1b271585285
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #672,407
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:43pm Jul 26, 2012 5:43pm
Quoting Vachus
Markets don't follow anyone , in few years by now Fractals and EW will simply stop working ... as spot market is determined by individuals goals and emotions , the field of misconception and deception will also increase ! Just like evolution

Ps: i don't disagree with any of what you said , on any level BTW
they follow everyone of which anyone is part of. I don't know the change in figures (cot report does not cover the amount of individual traders within the noncommercial positions) but assume that not much has changed in that individual traders hardly contribute to the volume compared to commercial entities, funds and institutions. still on institutional levels decisions are taken by individuals - altthough with collective influence. that is no different from decision making of individual traders who also are influenced by what they see, read and believe which again is of collective nature.

all trading decisions are subjective (to a certain extend also automated ones) and I doubt that emotional trading decisions contribute much to volumes and PA

I don't think harmonic patterns will ever not apply although admittedly - to some extent they are based on a self fulfilling phprophecy: they work because they work

it does seem however that markets are changing indeed - occasionally you can read of people who claim they have been successful throughout many years before suddenly losing their edge. would be interesting to learn more about that
  • #672,408
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:58pm Jul 26, 2012 5:58pm
Quoting MaxDoom
I like some of what you say but the highlighted is rubbish...... unless you are saying each and every individual will be in complete agreement you will always get supply/demand points and therefore fractals and therefore waves........
yes, but the ability to determine a fractals and count waves becomes more complicated and misconceived the more people using it. If you studied evolution , you know that living beings always adapt to mechanisms invented to defeat them Or exploit their weakness. Take for example any Anti Microbiotic , every few years they change the way they attack human bodies or some of them. They adapt to your knowledge of their behaviour and change that. If fractals for example is the symptoms of a disease , the dieses will sooner or later change its behavior or die and another microbiotic take its place and goes undetected till we find out.

So, at a certain point , the amount of irregularities in the BW or fractals simply will increase or the indicator will provide more errors than correctiveness. forcing us to go back and study everything till we find the new pattern or indicator that represent the new and evolved indicator !

Iron and swords replaced muscles naked power, and gun power replaced all of them. Then , came dynamits with MR Nobel. Now we hear about genetic engineered weapons that will be able to eliminate only the original residents of a country.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #672,409
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:59pm Jul 26, 2012 6:59pm
Quoting Vachus
@Drox : What do you think about that :

1- Wave 3 has not yet completed , due to the huge spike that pushed the price right to the 19 of July area. And we may see an ABC correction towards the highest closing price to penterate any price above 1.23600 and trying to crack the nearest resistance over there ?

2- Wave 2 and wave 4 will appear together maybe as retracement at 1.23240

The question is : Can this spike take a huge drop , combine with Wave four and 2 that will be at least 50 pips ! In a counter spike, buyers tend to be more worried...
Good argumentation ...

And very often we can see this in this forum ... that many of our members come in here after a major move has been done and start to change their mind a little bit late ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #672,410
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:14pm Jul 26, 2012 7:14pm
Quoting 853efx
r u interested to learn to trade 4 free? i'm about to blog some - first of all: "there r no shortcuts in life" hehe
URL? ye, fractal is delayed indicator thought it showed the candlestick wick/pin bar, price can be fundamentally affected by trading hours, emotions, liquidity and news, anyway breakout don't make sense at times too, just either u follow the trend or get eaten along the way if you fight to go for retrace. Take yesterday for example, it shoot up 200 pips, that's the few occasions that's its a one line up.

Now i have to mark draghi's comment as high IMPACT lol....
  • #672,411
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:16pm Jul 26, 2012 7:16pm
Quoting MaxDoom
there are always multiple counts but I make a living from it
If it works for you, sure go for it.
I read so many comments about the waves where people are lost .......... hence my comment.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #672,412
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:22pm Jul 26, 2012 7:22pm
Finally we broke 1.22775!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #672,413
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:27pm Jul 26, 2012 7:27pm
We have to admit that us traders tend very much to compare each other "nose", "mine is bigger than yours" and so on.....

At the psychological level whom constantly compare may feel insecure about their "size".
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #672,414
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:35pm Jul 26, 2012 7:35pm
I got the feeling that today (Friday) the only way to make money is not to trade more the the 5m TF.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #672,415
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:37pm Jul 26, 2012 7:37pm
Quoting dbutton1990
Finally we broke 1.22775!
Not really, to say that we need at least an hourly close below that.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #672,416
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:43pm Jul 26, 2012 7:43pm
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...454533806.html
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #672,417
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:46pm Jul 26, 2012 7:46pm
When it comes to figuring out this trading stuff, here's a couple of hints.

"There is nothing new under the sun"

"All is vanity"

Was off this scene for 3 months, always surprising how the names at the bottom of the screen disappear and are replaced with new ones.
  • #672,418
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:46pm Jul 26, 2012 7:46pm
trading is about finding the right area to go for short or long trades and no one knows for sure if his count is right . if this count is right and wave 4 has started from the lows 1.2040 then we need to know whats the shape of wave 4 and where it might end and how long it will take . wave 4 will be shallow cause wave2 was a zigzag and usually it will go to the top of wave 4 of a lesser degree so it could go all the way to 1.2740 and it will be of a complex type and takes at least 12 days so traders could take shorts when first leg of wave 4 finished wavea or they could take longs at the end of second leg wave b to get wavec . by looking at smaller time frame the first leg is not finished yet if we count it as an impulse as we r in wave 4 to go higher to 1.2350 area then it will go down to form wave b which could go all the way down .
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  • #672,419
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:58pm Jul 26, 2012 7:58pm
Quoting SerpentDove
When it comes to figuring out this trading stuff, here's a couple of hints.

"There is nothing new under the sun"

"All is vanity"

Was off this scene for 3 months, always surprising how the names at the bottom of the screen disappear and are replaced with new ones.
Yes, because this is a "f@cking" difficult job.

We need to deal with ourself and more deep we go more shiite we find, specially when we increase our stake.

Traders by nature are very proud and ambitious people and that per se is an obstacle in trading, I think......
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #672,420
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:08pm Jul 26, 2012 8:08pm
It seems that Asia crossed the 23.6% fib (taken from ydays low-high) to the downside in a "decisive manner". I´m eyeing the DPP-zone as the next target.
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