EurAnalysis

Good job C. I'm staying out of crude unless we get up to 93, down to 84.50 or all hell breaks loose in Middle East.

If crude goes to $93, we will be very underwater on our E/U shorts. I'm hoping for $84 and will play for PA as it moves down.

I like that close. Bad luck I missed 23288. What a nasty day.

Edit: Btw, while I forgot to delete numbers of trades, is it trackable or what? I dont even know why I am doing it, just a bit paranoid someone may find me.

T

4 hour closing within the original t/l of the channel,time for short or wait for daily closing, what do you think guys?

H&S looks promising...pull back to 86 short down to 50/40 level..lets see

Depends on how we get to 93.00. If it's because of middle east then you will see flight to safety with the dollar IMO. Correlation will be broken. No way E/U shoots up if that happens.

I'm with you on 84. I'm only looking to buying on dips with crude, in case WWIII breaks out.

That's why I don't post charts. IMO, If you're going to post charts, post from demo MT4 account. Protect yourself, and don't open up can of worms!

You suggesting the tentions in the middle east will increase by buying the dips?

They seem to be easing right now...

Hey guys. Just took some time to review the last 24 hours and put together some thoughts and analysis:

Please take the time to read it if you would like

Current Market Conditions Analysis

The E/U opened at 1.2156 went to LOW of 1.2118 and High of 1.2331
For a 213 pips run this session.
The E/U is not done with down ward move. In fact, on just as recently as my last post I discussed the channel top for swing players( 1.2324)



Upon review of what the pair has done the previous 5 sessions, 10 sessions, 15 sessions, and last month now we have this HUGE breakout after I had got use to trading bounces and plucking pips. lol



Some days we MUST anticipate in markets and read tea leaves on risk sentiment or to use an old poker saying – Know when to hold them or know when to fold them.
The E/U has seen a consistent overall trend down and range bound. As noted arlier this morning, Risk was given a strong boost today by simple, yet bold comments from ECB president Draghi.
Draghi simply put it straight that “ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro” and he urged the markets to believe him “it will be enough”.
The E/U and Euro crosses showed strength in the Currency Trend Tracker and New highs were breached in EUR/USD as pair broke 2200 and then 2300

There was a forewarning – the previous session… the EUR/USD moved 119 pips overall and +100 pips for session – A UP session to close at 1.2156
This was after 6 straight Red sessions. Then we have aberration today with Super Marios statements.


There are two choices when this happens
1. You have become experienced enough to ride the counter trend (I didnt and dont claim to be a CTT trader)



2. You have less experience(Im speaking for myself here) and have NO CLUE why the the markets are moving like a freight train UP – when it has been bouncing previous sessions. So you shut down trading “LIVE” until you fully grasp and understand what is happening and practice patience.


Gain experience from what is hapening using your own trading analysis and understanding of market dynamics, and waiting for next session and aberration to calm down.


Recent examples of this type of aberration was Greece elections, Spain requesting help, and profit taking of traders at end of week before weekend to have new positions when overall trend continues.


Note that EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD rebound strongly following Draghi’s comment which suggest that Euro is getting some solid buying, instead of just following risk rally.
RBNZ left the official cash rate unchanged at 2.50% today as widely expected.



E/U tech analysis




EUR/USD top range noted was 1.2324 — please just look back the last few posts I had to see this


High of this session in EUR/USD at time of writing is 1.2331
The number given in previous reports as range HIGH is 1.2324 or 7 pips below today’s high after massive move.


Since the end of the London Session, Review the DOW, OIL, and Gold for major changes. DOW went up 170 points, Gold little over $3 and Oil spiked higher as well. I did not participate because of my day job but an easy trade could of just been to SELL the 1.2324 with a realistic 20-50 pip TP. This could of worked for the following reasons:
Due to timing: London Close
Major Move: 213 pips
Retracement is due after major move, even if pair continues with Euro strength
Retracement to around at least 2295 /2285 — If pair holds above 2300, then another push up is possible.


Current range is 2331 to 2275 or 56 pips for rest of day…the 1.2364 should cap the day in case of an overshoot as it is the mathematical resistance point of strong contention.



I personally will stay flat due to other obligations but i will add a short at any overshoot.




Be back during early asia for the plan for the next 24 hours


Thanks for reading guys


Good luck


Wulf

Because crude is extremely volatile, I'm going to play it safe by buying dips when opportunity presents itself. I don't want to get caught with my shorts down, if all hell breaks loose. If that happens, you can get underwater pretty quick and would make E/U rallies, look like a day at the park... Just my opinion bro.

Only thing keeping oil prices down right now is Obummer's deal with the Saudis until after election.

hi buddy, hows the bike,Big question.the crude you trade on can you explain it a bit, i am totally ignorant of it ie is it usa light crude brent crude etc. thanks

It's USA light, not Brent.

Been raining here last 2 days (on and off) so not getting out much on the bike

What an interesting day.
My s/l was triggered on eur/usd at 1.2184...which hurt a bit but 'tis all part of learning.
Managed to recover some on longs up to 1.23. Thank you Mr Draghi, but it just shows how fickle market sentiment is - (I'm learning it isn't like equities AT ALL!!!)
Now short again with s/l at 1.2340...let's see!
It certainly makes a nice contrast to the day job (Bariatric surgery)
I thought this was a good summary of Euro-woes, and the full article is a good read ....link at bottom of text

"In today's Washington Post, columnist Anne Applebaum has a nicely succinct (and depressing) summary of the ongoing Euro zone crack-up:

Though no one recognized it at the time, joining the euro was like adopting the gold standard: It meant that individual governments couldn’t inflate their way out of trouble anymore nor pass on to the next generation the bill for today’s expenditures — as they still can in the United States and Britain. All along, it has been a mistake to describe the euro zone’s difficulties as a “currency crisis.” In fact, it’s a political crisis, caused by an addiction to debt, and it requires a political solution. Electorates have learned the truth: They are bankrupt. Whatever decisions the European Union now makes, future recovery depends on how much of the plain facts ordinary people can bear to absorb.

And what are the "plain facts" that Europeans must understand:

Europeans are being forced to face up to decades’ worth of fundamentally dishonest politics. Since the 1970s, one government after the next has spent, borrowed and then inflated its way out of the subsequent debt. Then they recovered — only to spend, borrow and inflate once again...

Now they can’t."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...y9W_story.html

Finally I am so grateful for all the expertise and comment on this thread - and other threads in this forum, it's a great help to a novice - thank you all.

Hey Tom....

Grrrr. . Wtf do I know?

I think you will like this one .

is this the light crude, we have had glorious weather here in uk, so i been in the boat most of the time. take care

Yup, that's it.

Hey Billy. What settings you use on ur ADX? Also, do u use default MT4 ADX indicator?