Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1832 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #36,621
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:46am Jul 26, 2012 7:46am
Quoting DharmaTrader
What's up 131,

Nice work on those longs! Way to keep that AU long overnight bro. Just woke up to see the huge Draghi sponsored move from a couple hours ago and had to come by to see how much you banked.

I'm still spending a bit of time in the school of hard knocks but learning every day, either about the markets or psychological lessons.

Keep up the good work.
Hey Dharma, good to hear from you! Yes, I banked a truckload of pips on these two longs- not bad whilst trying to entertain two young boys too..I could have taken more out of it, but was hoping to get in on a retrace- no chance- it's not stopping yet, though we're nearing resistance as I type. Anyway the boys are calling again so must go!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,622
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:02am Jul 26, 2012 8:02am
Yea ive also taken a few hard hits lately so im off the live account and back on the ForexTester2 simulator and demo trading for now, until i cement certain habits into my brain and only trade according to the game plan, thanks for the explanation 131, I see it was a confluence of supports in that area that had you looking for buys
  • #36,623
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:04am Jul 26, 2012 8:04am
Something ive noticed is when i step away from this thread the losses start coming in, i think posting my trades helps me really internalize the reasons for taking a certain trade, and keeps me from making thoughtless bad decisions
  • #36,624
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:14am Jul 26, 2012 8:14am
Hey Steep, sorry to hear that. When times are hard, and trading difficult, stepping back is always good thing. Also, only take trades based on HTF support/ resistance which should keep you out of trouble.

Taken a cheeky short on Euro and just covered 2/3rds at +12 pips, the 5ma/ support and moved SL to BE as it's like stepping in front of a juggernaut! The reason why is obvious on the HTF's, and we have our PA as a pin on the 15min. This is an extraordinary push by the longs, and GDP tomorrow will decide whether this move is genuine or not.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min1st tp.gif Size: 12 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,625
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:17am Jul 26, 2012 8:17am
Quoting SteeP7
Something ive noticed is when i step away from this thread the losses start coming in, i think posting my trades helps me really internalize the reasons for taking a certain trade, and keeps me from making thoughtless bad decisions
Yes, that really helped me. It stopped me from taking those stupid bonehead trades (well not completely!) without really considering things like R;R, is this a good location for a trade in that direction, do the other TF's agree, the dow and other correlations etc etc
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,626
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:19am Jul 26, 2012 8:19am
Sorry I've just seen that those last charts were a bit stupid with the scaling, but it was a long green run up!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,627
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:32am Jul 26, 2012 8:32am
Quoting Trader131
Sorry I've just seen that those last charts were a bit stupid with the scaling, but it was a long green run up!
haha dont worry were all looking at the same chart, we know what the missing part looks like
  • #36,628
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:36am Jul 26, 2012 8:36am
Stopped out BE, I know I moved my SL early, but it was a quick smash'n grab trade, so I'm happy with it. With these trades you just try and grab what you can without taking too much drawdown. Also notice that I took more than my usual half profit at the first TP because my SL would have given me less than 1;1 R:R on it, so I took 2/3rds out leaving 1/3 on. Hope that makes sense.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,629
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:41am Jul 26, 2012 8:41am
Anyway enough trading for me today, I must go attend to these boys- what a neglectful parent! My wife's gone to London, apparently stuck in traffic, and playing at the Proms tonight, so it's the boys home alone Catch you later!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,630
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:45am Jul 26, 2012 8:45am
Quoting Trader131
Stopped out BE, I know I moved my SL early, but it was a quick smash'n grab trade, so I'm happy with it. With these trades you just try and grab what you can without taking too much drawdown. Also notice that I took more than my usual half profit at the first TP because my SL would have given me less than 1;1 R:R on it, so I took 2/3rds out leaving 1/3 on. Hope that makes sense.
Makes perfect sense, have fun with the fam, you've had a hell of a pipage today
  • #36,631
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:59am Jul 26, 2012 8:59am
Quoting Trader131
Yes, that really helped me. It stopped me from taking those stupid bonehead trades (well not completely!) without really considering things like R;R, is this a good location for a trade in that direction, do the other TF's agree, the dow and other correlations etc etc
How do you use the dow and other correlations to help you trade fx?
thanks
  • #36,632
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:44am Jul 27, 2012 2:44am
Quoting Kasapreko
How do you use the dow and other correlations to help you trade fx?
thanks
Yes, sure, but I don't want to overcomplicate things as you don't need all this stuff- you can just trade the charts in isolation, if you just use price action at HTF S/R that's enough. You're going to regret asking me!

The Dow is very important- EO talked about it often. Generally speaking, when the dow moves, risk is on, the dollar falls and Eurusd/cable/aususd rise with it. I look at the HTF's on the dow to see possible turning points in the markets. If the dow is near resistance, then it would be another confluence if I were looking to short euro, cable or aussie. If there is a major breakout on the dow, there's no point trying to trade against it.

Whilst talking of correlations, personally I also have crude oil and gold on my screens, that I treat in the same way as the dow. Sometimes they can also be "the leader", but more recently it's been the dow. I suppose I should really have the UK100 up as the market mover during the London open before the US wakes up too, but I'd need another screen.

It's also worth having some kind of USD index to use as a negative correlation with our 3 dollar pairs- I can't get that on my platform, so have USDNOK and USDCAD next to each other to give me an overview of what the dollar strength is, without giving me information I already know from the GBP, EUR and AUD side of things. They again show me possible turning points at S/R.

And finally, as I trade euro, cable and aussie, I also have their crosses- well, EURGBP and EURAUD anyway. This helps define which are the stronger and weaker of the three pairs I trade, so for example if eurgbp is rising, then obviously eur is stronger than gbp, so if I'm looking to go long then eurusd would be the better option. That is unless EURGBP is nearing resistance, where it might turn south, in which case cable might be the better long.

As you see, it can get quite complicated and there are many more ways to use these correlations, but I think I've probably said enough on the subject. Can't see the wood for the trees and all that! All I can say is that after a lot of screen time it becomes a lot more intuitive.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,633
  • Jul 27, 2012 4:59am Jul 27, 2012 4:59am
I just took a very similar trade on Aussie to the quadruple tweezers on cable yesterday- not as textbook, with exact matching lows likethe cable was yesterday, but near enough. Trading is rarely an exact science! When price stalls for a few candles above support, it will often reverse. I drew a support line after the entry to make things clearer, as my automatic software missed it.

Taken 27pips profit on half in one fast candle-I love it when it works out like that! My SL at -5pips just below the wicks
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie15min.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie15min1st tp.gif Size: 26 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,634
  • Jul 27, 2012 5:03am Jul 27, 2012 5:03am
Euro was the pretty similar too- Stalling at the daily pivot. Didn't take it though
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min.gif Size: 21 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,635
  • Jul 27, 2012 8:23am Jul 27, 2012 8:23am
Another one I just took in the same style on Euro- stalling at support and Weekly R1 pivot- it's so simple sometimes!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro15min1st tp.gif Size: 29 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,636
  • Jul 29, 2012 8:38pm Jul 29, 2012 8:38pm
hey 131 i finally watched Sam seidens videos on S & D and it was definitely something i needed to do thanks for the recommendation. i can understand why you recommended it, it is a must! i also read Kenneth Lee's BS trading pdf and its basically the same thing he just goes into detail about supply and demand a bit more than the videos.
  • #36,637
  • Jul 30, 2012 1:09pm Jul 30, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting SteeP7
hey 131 i finally watched Sam seidens videos on S & D and it was definitely something i needed to do thanks for the recommendation. i can understand why you recommended it, it is a must! i also read Kenneth Lee's BS trading pdf and its basically the same thing he just goes into detail about supply and demand a bit more than the videos.
Glad you liked it, Steep! I'll look at Ken Lee's pdf when I get a moment, as I liked his posts in this thread
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,638
  • Jul 31, 2012 2:24am Jul 31, 2012 2:24am
Quoting SteeP7
hey 131 i finally watched Sam seidens videos on S & D and it was definitely something i needed to do thanks for the recommendation. i can understand why you recommended it, it is a must! i also read Kenneth Lee's BS trading pdf and its basically the same thing he just goes into detail about supply and demand a bit more than the videos.
Eo was using S+D all the time, he just used it in a different way. He would often simply buy at an area, mid candle, if he saw it clearly being rejected where there had been a sharp move away previously. It's definitely something to always keep in mind.
  • #36,639
  • Jul 31, 2012 4:10pm Jul 31, 2012 4:10pm
interesting stuff ive been practicing on the simulator trying to find the S & D zones and trading them, something ive also been researching is options and how they affect price action, dont know if you guys have ever read into it but it might help to determine strong areas of S & D, heres a great article explaining it http://www.investopedia.com/walkthro...#axzz21ea9WBkz
  • #36,640
  • Aug 1, 2012 9:23am Aug 1, 2012 9:23am
Quoting SteeP7
interesting stuff ive been practicing on the simulator trying to find the S & D zones and trading them, something ive also been researching is options and how they affect price action, dont know if you guys have ever read into it but it might help to determine strong areas of S & D, heres a great article explaining it http://www.investopedia.com/walkthro...#axzz21ea9WBkz
Thanks for posting it, Steep, but it's not for me. My eyes glazed over after the 2nd paragraph! But if it works for you then great- Sorry!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
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