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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #44,421
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:43am Jul 26, 2012 5:43am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Hi guys. I had a personal family situation sprung up on me, and had to disappear to tend to. I won't have as much time to post regularly as I wish, but will try what I can. Hope everyone is doing well, and making green pips. I know you guys probably didn't even realize I was missing. Trade safe guys and kitty cat.
Hey Swiss, hope everything is alright and you get your family situation under control. I hope it's nothing too serious. We did miss you here.

Cheers!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #44,422
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:47am Jul 26, 2012 5:47am
Today is not a good day Woke up to -90 pips on my short at 1.2130 and not a happy camper. I can see this thing keep going to about 1.2280 as we've already passed the Daily R1 and the weekly pivot. I think I'll go back to bed now
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #44,423
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:53am Jul 26, 2012 5:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
From a technical perspective, I see more upside correction. Yesterday we got a daily bullish engulf and managed to close the weekend "gap". However, even that much of a move north has failed to show a decent correction on the daily chart as we have not even reached the 8 day smma yet which comes in at 1.2212 area right now. Also, the 61.8% fibo of the move down from last week's high (1.2323 - 1.2041) comes in at 1.2215 on the dot. Another argument for more upside correction is a possible slightly malformed inverse H/S pattern forming on H1/H4. If that pattern plays out to its full potential, we could see 1.2300... All this points north, yet on my H4 chart, the MacD indicator is screaming Bearish Hidden Divergence. Hmmm
So it seems we have reached my first possible target and now the H4 MacD is screaming louder. So is this the end of it, or will be making a move to 1.2300 area to complete the inverse H/S?

As always, time will tell. NY will either take us there, or wake up to the reality that the ECB is talking out of its a$$
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,424
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:54am Jul 26, 2012 5:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
Recap of what Draghi said...
■Euro zone has power to defeat market speculation
So why I am still not convinced?
I still think it is a good area to SHORT, watching PRICE ACTION closely and ready to jump in on first bearish signal...
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #44,425
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:58am Jul 26, 2012 5:58am
I think it is clear now, he said with a lot of blabla:

ECB will do everything it can possible do to help devaluate the Euro.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #44,426
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:00am Jul 26, 2012 6:00am
Quoting halkins
So why I am still not convinced?
I still think it is a good area to SHORT, watching PRICE ACTION closely and ready to jump in on first bearish signal...
Because his comments were only convincing to the idiots... which apparently is the majority of the market

By the way... 1.2280/1.2300 and possibly even 1.2360 are quite possible before all this is over. However, I don't trust the market to keep believing in it. At any time, some official or semi-official bank is going to see the Euro at an excellent price to sell... Like whoever is acting on behalf of the SNB. (as an example)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,427
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:02am Jul 26, 2012 6:02am
I have 1.2215 to 2242 as my next resistance zone - the top of that zone has the 1.618 expansion of yesterdays range and today's R 2 pivot level.

Above that we have the last swing low off the daily chart at 1.2288.....its looking like both will get hit....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #44,428
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:05am Jul 26, 2012 6:05am
Half position closed on g/u for 120 Pips
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Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #44,429
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:06am Jul 26, 2012 6:06am
Quoting drzakir123
hi goferpips,how ru.how r ur positions, i hope ur still with ur positions.and thank u for the voucher and i am humbled, hope i wont be a disappointment to u for ur confidence in me.
You are most welcome. All longs are in profit with 20 pip trailing stop
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  • #44,430
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:07am Jul 26, 2012 6:07am
Well I left last night with shorts in EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY in the green having opening them on Sunday night and now they're all closed at BE, except for a 50pip profit in GBP/JPY.

I looked at the calender and didn't see ANYTHING worthy of a market jump so the first thing I did was look here and thanks to PipTrappers very concise interpretation of Draghi's talk it makes sense.

Now the dilema, to re-enter the shorts now or wait until the Hopium wears off and the markets tell Draghi that he has no clothes.....

BTW PT - Thank you for this thread, your thoughts and take on the E/U.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #44,431
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:07am Jul 26, 2012 6:07am
Euro has just had a nice satifying colonic irrigation.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #44,432
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:07am Jul 26, 2012 6:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning everyone,

What an awesome short covering rally we had yesterday. If was like a fireworks display that went off all at once. The intro, the main show and the grande finale all in one go. Price shot up 120 pips almost in one go and then fizzled out into a range for the rest of the day. No major retrace and no follow through either. So, do we get either one of those today? The chances of more up or further down are now pretty much a coin toss. Which way it goes will depend mostly on how the sentiment changes based on any news that may...
Very nice analysis
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #44,433
  • Edited 7:40am Jul 26, 2012 6:09am | Edited 7:40am
Closed half long on e/j for 25 Pips
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Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #44,434
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:15am Jul 26, 2012 6:15am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Closed half long on e/j for 25 Pips
Wow Harpy. You're really cleaning up today. Congrats my friend

The same goes to all of you who were long the Euro. Very well done indeed. If I wasn't so averse to trading counter trend, I certainly would have joined you.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,435
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:16am Jul 26, 2012 6:16am
Quoting cgldsmth
Euro has just had a nice satifying colonic irrigation.
Good one
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,436
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:17am Jul 26, 2012 6:17am
Quoting luSan
Very nice analysis
Thank you luSan. Did you manage to hitch a ride on the hopium train?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,437
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:18am Jul 26, 2012 6:18am
This one is doing pretty well also.
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  • #44,438
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:19am Jul 26, 2012 6:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
Wow Harpy. You're really cleaning up today. Congrats my friend

The same goes to all of you who were long the Euro. Very well done indeed. If I wasn't so averse to trading counter trend, I certainly would have joined you.
Thanks to ALLAH (GOD) and then its all because of you
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #44,439
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:21am Jul 26, 2012 6:21am
Quoting fxsport
Well I left last night with shorts in EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY in the green having opening them on Sunday night and now they're all closed at BE, except for a 50pip profit in GBP/JPY.

I looked at the calender and didn't see ANYTHING worthy of a market jump so the first thing I did was look here and thanks to PipTrappers very concise interpretation of Draghi's talk it makes sense.

Now the dilema, to re-enter the shorts now or wait until the Hopium wears off and the markets tell Draghi that he has no clothes.....

BTW PT - Thank you...
Don't worry about your stop out now. That's water under the bridge. Marrying a losing trade is bad, but marrying a trade that is already closed and behind you is much worse.

Obviously it's too late to jump in long with a good RR, but at least now you have an opportunity to sell at a much higher price... once the dust settles.

Remember tomorrow is the last Friday of July and next week we have month end flows, the FED statement, ECB statement and the NFP. So there will be many more opportunities to cash in large.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,440
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:22am Jul 26, 2012 6:22am
Quoting Gofer Pips
You are most welcome. All longs are in profit with 20 pip trailing stop
Quoting Gofer Pips
This one is doing pretty well also.
Awesome trading Dad
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
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