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Trading Made Simple

  • #15,201
  • Jul 25, 2012 10:05am Jul 25, 2012 10:05am
absolute nonsense, its not like you could prove it stopped working for that very reason anyway. And I thought the point of a thread on ff is to understand the method, and share ideas, rather than take and stay quiet, but each to their own and I'm happy that its working for you at present, but I gurantee you wont be using it years down the line. Unless like I said earlier, the system is solid, theres just a few pieces missing and you have found those pieces, yet not willing to share.

I dont need to go on, I just for old times sake visited the thread again and read what was happening, and put my experienced opinion with the system out there. Good day
  • #15,202
  • Edited 11:21am Jul 25, 2012 11:07am | Edited 11:21am
Quoting chewz
absolute nonsense, its not like you could prove it stopped working for that very reason anyway. And I thought the point of a thread on ff is to understand the method, and share ideas, rather than take and stay quiet, but each to their own and I'm happy that its working for you at present, but I gurantee you wont be using it years down the line. Unless like I said earlier, the system is solid, theres just a few pieces missing and you have found those pieces, yet not willing to share.

I dont need to go on, I just for old times sake visited the...
You are right I cannot prove that is why it stopped working, but absolute nonsense? That is a bit extreme.Here is what I feel is nonsense....going on a forum and saying that " system stopped working for me so everyone else do not waste your time" If you have read any books on the Turtles or people associated with them you will see that many of them mention this as one of the reasons they feel it does not work anymore.....again ONE of the reasons.

Anyway the TMS system itself , at the fundamental level , is solid but it is how you use it that will make the difference. Perhaps the way you traded it needed to be changed. You mention the TDI line changing during a trade , yes it does but I do not use that as a SL or TP or exit by any means. I use PA to determine if the cross has relevance or not. Also earlier in the the thread it was mentioned that Big E does not believe in SL. Well that is one place where we differ right there. I use a SL. It is calculated based on previous PA and I also use ATR for moving up SL. My lot size is also calculated based on SL so I am always risking the same amount of money that I choose to. These trades need more room to run than normal. My average SL is about 25 -35 pips so when these trades go against me 15 pips I do not exit ......If I did then what is the point of having a SL if you are just going to exit anyway. I also have calculated Trailing stops that move up when a certain % of the position goes in profit. That way say the position goes 15 pips in my favor TS will kick in and then I am at least guaranteed BE an perhaps a small profit. Doing this has ensured that I do not have many losses . So far today and yesterday I have had 13 straight winning trades some of them are large wins and some are small..... BE is a win to me , 1 pip is a win . Do I have losses ? Yes but not even close to as many wins. Also I do not get sucked into the trap of when I do have a loss trying to figure out "why" what happened?" then trying to come up with new ways to avoid it. I just look at it and say " Ok guess this one didn't work , next....."
"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #15,203
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:39pm Jul 25, 2012 7:39pm
Hi Gekko,
I am agree with you and of course Eelfranz too, about the PA.
The consolidation area also need to be justified. Before this I entered when I saw TDI crossed only, a lot losses there sometime especially when traded after London closed. PA not much action. But started from this week, happy cause I got the rhythm. Best timing, nice crossed TDI, nice Stoch, good PA, then I entered, with set TP of 20-30pips..

Quoting Gekko78
You are right I cannot prove that is why it stopped working, but absolute nonsense? That is a bit extreme.Here is what I feel is nonsense....going on a forum and saying that " system stopped working for me so everyone else do not waste your time" If you have read any books on the Turtles or people associated with them you will see that many of them mention this as one of the reasons they feel it does not work anymore.....again ONE of the reasons.

Anyway the TMS system itself , at the fundamental level , is solid but it is how you...
  • #15,204
  • Jul 26, 2012 9:56am Jul 26, 2012 9:56am
So here is the EUR/USD 1 hr chart. If the move up today holds where I have it marked then the first opportunity I am looking for is the 23.6 level. usually that is a good benchmark to gauge if a reversal will happen or not. It if breaks through that and closes under it then I will be looking to go short which should coincide with a TDI cross. If not then bounce play.

Also notice the 23.6 is very close ( only 10 pips ) from the 78.6 level of the previous move. This also leads me to believe that there will be some pretty good activity in this area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_usd_1hr.gif Size: 40 KB
"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #15,205
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:04am Jul 26, 2012 10:04am
Looks like same thing with AUD/USD as well . 23.6 and 61.8 15 pips apart.

TDI crossing as of now but wait til candle closes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au_usd_1hr.gif Size: 44 KB
"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #15,206
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:25am Jul 26, 2012 11:25am
So sad that I missed the big bull on EU, GU, GJ, & EJ.. Was away to prepare for breaking fasting .. (18:00hr my time (+8GMT)).
It's ok just wait another trade..

Quoting Gekko78
So here is the EUR/USD 1 hr chart. If the move up today holds where I have it marked then the first opportunity I am looking for is the 23.6 level. usually that is a good benchmark to gauge if a reversal will happen or not. It if breaks through that and closes under it then I will be looking to go short which should coincide with a TDI cross. If not then bounce play.

Also notice the 23.6 is very close ( only 10 pips ) from the 78.6 level of the previous move. This also leads me to believe that there will be some pretty good activity in this area....
  • #15,207
  • Jul 26, 2012 12:36pm Jul 26, 2012 12:36pm
Here is why you cannot just rely on TDI crossing alone you must use something else to act as confirmation .....whatever you are comfortable with , preferably PA to gauge entries......all of these just generated signals.....after looking at these charts and seeing PA , would you take any of these? I know I would not and did not.

Like I said before fundamentally this system is very good and sound but it needs just some minor tweaks , at least for me , to be successful long term. If you just take every cross you will get eaten alive eventually.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au_usd_1hr_cross_begin.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_jpy_1hr_cross_begin.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_aud_1hr_cross_begin.gif Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_usd_1hr_cross_begin.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_usd_1hr_cross_begin.gif Size: 29 KB
"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #15,208
  • Jul 26, 2012 1:21pm Jul 26, 2012 1:21pm
Dear friends,

today at the London open, the S/R (violet in my graph) was broken in point "1" (always in my graph).

Is this a good entry, confirmed by TDI during this "London Open" candle?
Seeing now the two blue "big" candels is it only a coincidence with "good news" for my trend?

Always in point "1" is it instead the real "support" to enter in a trade the dark green line (Yesteday HI) at 1.21698?

Another idea, is it a 1-2-3 entry?


Thanks again

Best trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro-usd.png Size: 18 KB
  • #15,209
  • Jul 27, 2012 3:23am Jul 27, 2012 3:23am
Hi All,

Just entered SELL on AU at 1.0416... Set TP at 1.0380 (fav no).
See how it goes...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU Sell 270712.png Size: 23 KB
  • #15,210
  • Jul 27, 2012 7:35am Jul 27, 2012 7:35am
Quoting atuque1
Hi All,

Just entered SELL on AU at 1.0416... Set TP at 1.0380 (fav no).
See how it goes...
With such a strong previous uptrend I would have waited for a conformation candle which in this case looked like would have been a good idea. had I taken this trade I would have been stopped out.
"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #15,211
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:52am Aug 1, 2012 5:52am
Quoting atuque1
Hi All,

Just entered SELL on AU at 1.0416... Set TP at 1.0380 (fav no).
See how it goes...

When I enter a trade I always check higher time frame. If it is in the same direction I want to trade I enter. Couple of day I've got burned on AUD/USD because I entered SELL on daily, when weekly was in upper trend.

Just my oppinion.

Comments are welcome!
  • #15,212
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:55am Aug 1, 2012 5:55am
Hey did anybody notice reverse head and shoulders pattern forming (4h) on EUR/USD . Looks like it might reverse from its downtrend.

Anybody feels the same?
  • #15,213
  • Aug 1, 2012 6:19am Aug 1, 2012 6:19am
Quoting Gekko78
With such a strong previous uptrend I would have waited for a conformation candle which in this case looked like would have been a good idea. had I taken this trade I would have been stopped out.
Quoting Defiant
When I enter a trade I always check higher time frame. If it is in the same direction I want to trade I enter. Couple of day I've got burned on AUD/USD because I entered SELL on daily, when weekly was in upper trend.

Just my oppinion.

Comments are welcome!
Thanks Guys for the comments...
Forgot to update that the AU Sell was burnt!!
I should looked into the higher TF too.. Actually the price was at resistance level, but then still went up...
  • #15,214
  • Aug 1, 2012 8:01am Aug 1, 2012 8:01am
Quoting Gekko78
Chewz,

One thing that I think you forgot to mention in your post is that this method is no consistent FOR YOU. Just because it does not work for you does not mean it does not work. In fact , your statement is one of the reasons why it does work. If it worked 100% of the time , all the time then everyone would trade it therefore eliminating its success. But because people are skeptical when they read a post like yours some will move on to something else keeping the system in tact for the rest of us.

Now that being said I do not trade the exact...
It is working for me, and if all I have is another year of making money i am happy with that!!

Any one who follows a method and blindly takes the signals as they come is stupid. As Big E said at the beginning Price Action is king (more or less).

Supply and Demand invented and sold by ???????? whats his name??
Support and Resistance invented and sold by ?????? Oh!! it is free

A small study I did (a work in progress). The results speak for themselves
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Statistical Analysis.png Size: 18 KB
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #15,215
  • Aug 1, 2012 8:33am Aug 1, 2012 8:33am
Quoting dee50
It is working for me, and if all I have is another year of making money i am happy with that!!

Any one who follows a method and blindly takes the signals as they come is stupid. As Big E said at the beginning Price Action is king (more or less).

Supply and Demand invented and sold by ???????? whats his name??
Support and Resistance invented and sold by ?????? Oh!! it is free

A small study I did (a work in progress). The results speak for themselves


Could you tell us a little bit about your entries and exit.

Exit are the thing that I am particularliy interested. What is your timeframe, trailing stop, do you wait for a tdi to start hooking? etc..

I know big E has pointed out everything, but everyone has a small divergences from topic, so if you do not mind just could you write a breif description how you enter, exit and trail your profits.

Cheers!
  • #15,216
  • Edited 11:06am Aug 1, 2012 10:03am | Edited 11:06am
Quoting Defiant
Could you tell us a little bit about your entries and exit.

Exit are the thing that I am particularliy interested. What is your timeframe, trailing stop, do you wait for a tdi to start hooking? etc..

I know big E has pointed out everything, but everyone has a small divergences from topic, so if you do not mind just could you write a breif description how you enter, exit and trail your profits.

Cheers!
I have attached a screenshot of a weeks trading, itīs the first five entries on the spreadsheet, you will see that I have superimposed ordinary candles onto the HA ones, why? because HA candles are fantastic for keeping you in a trend but absolutely crap for getting you into one, I prefer to see the price action for the entry and for the exit, once in I click the button and just watch the HA. Maybe the chart will answer your questions.

Timeframe. 1 hr. check 15 min for entry. I do not trail my stop. Stop is moved to B/E + 2 once price reaches 15ish pips in profit and either my target is hit or I close the trade. I use Fiboīs, previous S/R (look left) to set target, I do not use R/R ratios to work out my target, ultimately Price Action dictates exit, or, it is time to go home so I close the trade. Sorry but that is as precise as I can get. Oh. The shaded boxes are my trading time. 09:00 - 18.00 GMT+1.
Hope it helps

PS.

If the signal is outside of my normal trading hours (3rd day on 1hr chart) I look to the 15 min chart for an entry see attached. In the same way I use the 15 min to see if I can get a better entry for my 1 hr signal (reduce risk)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HA + Candle outline.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 15m 18 07 2012.png Size: 89 KB
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #15,217
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:41am Aug 1, 2012 11:41am
Quoting dee50
I have attached a screenshot of a weeks trading, itīs the first five entries on the spreadsheet, you will see that I have superimposed ordinary candles onto the HA ones, why? because HA candles are fantastic for keeping you in a trend but absolutely crap for getting you into one, I prefer to see the price action for the entry and for the exit, once in I click the button and just watch the HA. Maybe the chart will answer your questions.

Timeframe. 1 hr. check 15 min for entry. I do not trail my stop. Stop is moved to B/E + 2 once price reaches 15ish...

Thank you for your time and sharing, you have explained it well!

Cheers!
  • #15,218
  • Aug 2, 2012 8:17am Aug 2, 2012 8:17am
I wonder...how many of you still using this system...seem like dead already....
  • #15,219
  • Edited 5:37am Aug 3, 2012 5:20am | Edited 5:37am
Quoting dee50
I have attached a screenshot of a weeks trading, itīs the first five entries on the spreadsheet, you will see that I have superimposed ordinary candles onto the HA ones, why? because HA candles are fantastic for keeping you in a trend but absolutely crap for getting you into one, I prefer to see the price action for the entry and for the exit, once in I click the button and just watch the HA. Maybe the chart will answer your questions.

Timeframe. 1 hr. check 15 min for entry. I do not trail my stop. Stop is moved to B/E + 2 once price reaches...
Thanks Dee, very good explanations on this method...
I am still learning the best way and timing to enter the trade/s.
Today I got good one with TP of 26 pips on EU.

**The earlier trade hit TP 34pips after next day (with thrills!!), which I should stop with +15pips on the same trading day. **
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Buy 030812.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Buy 030812 - TP.png Size: 28 KB
  • #15,220
  • Aug 3, 2012 6:54am Aug 3, 2012 6:54am
Quoting iso9002drx
I wonder...how many of you still using this system...seem like dead already....
The original advice was to read the thread essentially before asking questions already answered. The thread is well over 1000 pages - hard to scroll through let alone read everything. And it keeps growing! I've not used the method yet but studying replies, charts and setups. I hope to use it soon. Thanks to Big E and everyone who contributed - it only helps to understand.
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