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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #44,261
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:25am Jul 25, 2012 6:25am
Quoting Islander
As requested by a senior thread member - the AllAverages indy - 14 different MAs that change colour.....just take your pick - also the ribbon MA
Thanks for posting these! I love the visual of your chart!
  • #44,262
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:25am Jul 25, 2012 6:25am
Quoting Fudomyo
.. My bias is to go to the beach.
I certainly agree cycle is about to get one last correction before the end of the year. I also agree the correction could be nasty. The question is, when will the correction start? I think (partially because of Wulf and PT here) the correction will start later, than sooner. Reasons for this are a) next FOMC meeting will not produce QE3, because NFP numbers come out after the meeting. And they said they will move in if job situation starts to worsen. b) QE3 will come after election if OhBummer wins.

That beeing said, I see 1,19 zone ahead pretty close and then the correction shouldnt (yes, shouldnt. it really can go anywhere and I have no clue ) go higher than 1,22. If it goes to 1,267 zone as you are suggesting it would need some liquidity boost. For example from ECB. I will be watching these guys very very closely. Draghi is coming up in press conference next week.

Btw, that post with Oanda was more of a conspirational joke. But imagine if they had live feeds from all retailers, combined it and hunted stops. Possible?

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #44,263
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:31am Jul 25, 2012 6:31am
Good morning guys. Just a quick update


Quoting Wulfgar

Need to close below 1.2019/1.2000 area before next move to 1.1833 and 1.1649
This is still our major level of support

[quote=Wulfgar;5873322]Trade Plan for E/U -Let pair move past 1.2095/1.2105 area and reverse – Place a SELL STOP at 1.2081 looking for the 1.2050 area for Tp and monitoring for a push for pips.
[quote]

trade was triggered with a SL @ 1.2140. I was stopped out for -59 pips


Quoting Wulfgar
G/U trade plan
SELL STOP has been placed at 1.5483 will look for 20-50 pips monitoring market factors and timing.

Alternative strategy- Let pair move to 1.5530 / 1.5540 area and reverse. Place a SELL STOPat 1.5519 with a TP range...
Both trades were triggered and CLOSED at 1.5473/1.5499 for +9 and +20 pips respectively

Quoting Wulfgar
A/U – current 1.0236 – Last 3 sessions are negative – SELL STOP triggered at 1.0199 .. stops placed at 1.0267 and TP is at the strong 1.0031 Channel bottom.

Trade was triggered and stopped out for -68 pips



I am currently FLAT with a total P/L of -98 pips on the session(or just under 5% of my accnt which is my daily drawdown limit)




Im omw to work guys just wanted to post a brief update to what I awoke to. I will bbl to take a closer look and learn from my trading session.

E/U current range to watch is still 2324 to 2041 = 283 pips with immediate resistance at the 1.2183



Wulf
  • #44,264
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:42am Jul 25, 2012 6:42am
m15 still cant make it through fridays close. This can be pretty interesting m15 candle.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #44,265
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:46am Jul 25, 2012 6:46am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Thanks for posting these! I love the visual of your chart!
You're welcome - that's what this thread is all about - sharing different approaches etc.....

For those who think that trading off the 5 min chart is about sitting in front of the screen all day, I actually spend much of my time outside, by my pool with various alerts set on my laptop, which I normally monitor every quarter of an hour......sure as hell beats being in an office - or like I was earlier, in a rather warm engine room on a 22 meter motor yacht....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #44,266
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:51am Jul 25, 2012 6:51am
Quoting Islander
You're welcome - that's what this thread is all about - sharing different approaches etc.....

For those who think that trading off the 5 min chart is about sitting in front of the screen all day, I actually spend much of my time outside, by my pool with various alerts set on my laptop, which I normally monitor every quarter of an hour......sure as hell beats being in an office - or like I was earlier, in a rather warm engine room on a 22 meter motor yacht....
I bet it was hot and loud in there. Hmmm just the way I like wifey. Hot and loud
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,267
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:53am Jul 25, 2012 6:53am
US New Home Sales report in just under 10 minutes (14:00 GMT)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,268
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:05am Jul 25, 2012 7:05am
Another higher vol harami, this time as a higher low, so I exited 2 positions as the New Homes data was due soon and intra-day pips a slippery blighters.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #44,269
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:05am Jul 25, 2012 7:05am
Quoting PipTrapper
US New Home Sales report in just under 10 minutes (14:00 GMT)

Lower than expected at 350K vs 372K expected but last report was adjusted upward to 382K from 369K
Still somewhat disappointing and will probably lead to a risk-off trade for the rest of the day. No more news today
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,270
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:06am Jul 25, 2012 7:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
I bet it was hot and loud in there. Hmmm just the way I like wifey. Hot and loud
.....well I had to put up with 2 Hot Cats.....of the 1050 hp type......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #44,271
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:08am Jul 25, 2012 7:08am
Quoting Islander
.....well I had to put up with 2 Hot Cats.....of the 1050 hp type......
Hey that's cool. I didn't know Caterpiller made marine engines. I thought that was an industry monopolized by Cummins, Volvo and Mercury.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,272
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:12am Jul 25, 2012 7:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
US New Home Sales report in just under 10 minutes (14:00 GMT)
Soooo... report is in, 350k = below expectations.

This might be a stupid question, but is it possible that no matter what the figure would be it is a win-win for the euro bears? If the reading would be better than expected => dollar goes up. If the reading would be lower than expected, meaning economy in not so good condition, and money go to safer assets => dollar goes up?
  • #44,273
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:15am Jul 25, 2012 7:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey that's cool. I didn't know Caterpiller made marine engines. I thought that was an industry monopolized by Cummins, Volvo and Mercury.
Caterpillar are big players in Marine Engines - both in pleasure craft and commercial, ocean going vessels.

The 2 other majors - pleasure craft-wise -are MAN and MTU - for the 20 meter to 100 meter range...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #44,274
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:16am Jul 25, 2012 7:16am
Quoting New Pip
Soooo... report is in, 350k = below expectations.

This might be a stupid question, but is it possible that no matter what the figure would be it is a win-win for the euro bears? If the reading would be better than expected => dollar goes up. If the reading would be lower than expected, meaning economy in not so good condition, and money go to safer assets => dollar goes up?
Yes, except that if the figure was dismal (which it wasn't), then the USD would lose over hopes/fears of QE3. The opposite is also true. If the figure was much much better than expected, some of the safe haven trade would unwind and the USD will fall... but only until a nice E/U resistance level was reached at which point Euros would be sold on behalf of the SNB in very large quantities.

So yeah, as long as it's not a USD bash fest, it's a win/win for the euro bears.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,275
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:19am Jul 25, 2012 7:19am
Quoting Islander
Caterpillar are big players in Marine Engines - both in pleasure craft and commercial, ocean going vessels.

The 2 other majors - pleasure craft-wise -are MAN and MTU - for the 20 meter to 100 meter range...
Yeah well my experience in marine engines is limited to the below 20 meter pleasure craft market... much below

The largest I owned was a 12 meter with two mercruiser 7.4 Liter with Bravo II outdrives. (375HP each). They almost bankrupt me every time I started the engines... and that was at Canadian fuel prices in 2005. Just imagine if I had to fill them up in Malta in 2012. LOL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,276
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:22am Jul 25, 2012 7:22am
Quoting Fudomyo
I think the real pullback will be later as well. We should see a back to school numbers boost in September which will probably kick the can on QE3, but a pre-election stimulus isn't out of the question. A false recovery is more in Obama's favor than limping into November on bad numbers.
Nice post man. I especially like quoted part. I also think Obama will try some pre-election stimulus. But as I was looking at this issue so far, his biggest weapon was FED, with either QE, or with some purchase program (Like MBS). Now, it is not problem of a single market (like when housing was collapsing) but more of a problem of whole banking sector, highly leveraged and exposed to EU meltdown.

Please keep in mind I am not from US, so I dont get everything what is going on in there, although I am doing my best. He already made Health Care reform, which was a huge fiscal stimulus. Where can he invest to boost economy? Infrastructure? Schools? Because I think he can not use FED before elections, due to Wall Street protest etc, so it is fiscal stimulus we are talking about.

Regarding this topic, on Dec 2011, there was some committee (I dont know the precise name) which was about to cut US budget deficit. It was total failure and they couldnt agree on anything and therefore, automatic budget cuts are about to start biting. People in US are more and more aware of US deficit trouble. I mean, they know US doesnt have money. Each fiscal stimulus which wont be very well defended could make american citizens even more angry. Apart from one. The most huge fiscal stimulus possible. Tax cut. Do you think it is possible Obama will cut taxes before elections?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #44,277
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:23am Jul 25, 2012 7:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes, except that if the figure was dismal (which it wasn't), then the USD would lose over hopes/fears of QE3. The opposite is also true. If the figure was much much better than expected, some of the safe haven trade would unwind and the USD will fall... but only until a nice E/U resistance level was reached at which point Euros would be sold on behalf of the SNB in very large quantities.

So yeah, as long as it's not a USD bash fest, it's a win/win for the euro bears.
Thanks PT, learning every day by reading this thread
  • #44,278
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:26am Jul 25, 2012 7:26am
Quoting New Pip
Thanks PT, learning every day by reading this thread
That's great. I have some news for you. You will never stop learning. That's the beauty of this business.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #44,279
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:29am Jul 25, 2012 7:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yeah well my experience in marine engines is limited to the below 20 meter pleasure craft market... much below

The largest I owned was a 12 meter with two mercruiser 7.4 Liter with Bravo II outdrives. (375HP each). They almost bankrupt me every time I started the engines... and that was at Canadian fuel prices in 2005. Just imagine if I had to fill them up in Malta in 2012. LOL
Been keeping quiet last few days as these are levels (extremes) I don't like to trade.

But couldn't resist this post!
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #44,280
  • Jul 25, 2012 7:30am Jul 25, 2012 7:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
That's great. I have some news for you. You will never stop learning. That's the beauty of this business.
Hehehe...
That's the curse of the business.
It's like going to school, learning everyday and never been promoted to the higher grade
--
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