EurAnalysis

Hey guys. Just stoppin by to post up the trade recos and a bit of a review on the market.





DOW – down 104.14 points to close at 12,617.32
Oil – up $0.09 to close at $88.23 – next level of support is $85.44
Gold – up $2.20 to close at $1,579.80 – Next level of support at $1,574
Dollar index 84.000 – 52 week range is Low: 73.421 – High: 84.100


The Dow logged its third-consecutive triple-digit loss, pressured by ongoing worries in the euro zone.




Current Market Conditions and trade recos

E/U – current 1.2076 – Pair has moved 96, 78, 140, 97 and 92 pips overall last 5 sessions. Not exactly major moves(summer volume like we have discussed, but pretty profitable as the ranges have been predictable enough for those selling the rallies. 10 of last 13 sessions have been below 100 pips overall in movement.


Last 5 sessions: Pair has closed -57, -5, -117, -5, and -11 pips – High last 3 sessions is 1.2137, 1.2144 and 1.2282(all LH's) ( downward trend is still intact) watching range of 2324 to 2041 = 283 pips




Need to close below 1.2019/1.2000 area before next move to 1.1833 and 1.1649






Trade Plan for E/U -Let pair move past 1.2095/1.2105 area and reverse – Place a SELL STOP at 1.2081 looking for the 1.2050 area for Tp and monitoring for a push for pips.


Secondary entry is SELL at 1.2038- this is a breakout trade so I will watch the for momentum and the critical 1.2000/1.2019 level



G/U trade plan

1.5508 – 3 straight Down sessions after previous 5 straight positive sessions. Only moved 67 pips overall last session.

SELL STOP has been placed at 1.5483 will look for 20-50 pips monitoring market factors and timing.


Alternative strategy- Let pair move to 1.5530 / 1.5540 area and reverse. Place a SELL STOPat 1.5519 with a TP range of 20-40 pips


A/U – current 1.0236 – Last 3 sessions are negative – SELL STOP triggered at 1.0199 .. stops placed at 1.0267 and TP is at the strong 1.0031 Channel bottom.





Wulf

http://www.hindecapital.com/attachme...Repression.pdf

E/U Daily

Low from 2010 comes in very near this weekly channel bottom. A great area of double support. Then I can see a bounce from there back up at least 300 pips, maybe to retest 1.2287 again.

The bunch of MAs looks like Golden Tail, but not sure about the lower channel support.

This time support is not working as a spring bed rather quicksand.

Good morning all. Was up late last night working on non-trading related projects... Need coffee.

gd morning pt... i thought your a retiree...

Nope. Way too young for that. lol

good plan... PA trading on the daily candle?

Spanish 10 yr bonds now 7.743 & accelerating - looks like will shoot over 8% today - pace of Euro collapse seems to accelerate today?
Need to watch 1.20 tho'

SNB?

Noooo!! I just closed my long position for 6 pips right before london opening viagra candle..

look on the bright side. a whole new bunch of sell orders might have gotten hit

That ECB Nowotny interview could be read as "nothing we can do now, let them default"

What happened? My sell trigger at 1.2115 got almost activated. Some news or .... ?

"Spanish government officials says the report that Germany is urging a Spanish bailout is untrue"

Good morning everyone.

Have any of you noticed how much noise there is out there from political leaders, economists and renowned investors? Everyone has something different to say about where this market and the economies are heading. What the CBs are going to do and how this is all going to play out. Meanwhile Mr. Market is not listening to any of it.

The QE3 band wagon is starting to beat the drums rather hard. I say those who make the most noise (as is historically evident) end up being the ones who are most disappointed in the end.

Obviously the media is not helping. All I've seen lately is a whole bunch of highly sensationalized speculative BS. Obviously things are slow and they are attempting to boost advertising revenues. Sensationalism is one of the tools they use. It's all about money. Those of you who believe it is about good reporting and serving the public need to have a naivety check.

Anyway, putting all the media hype and the verbal diarrhea from political leaders/officials aside, one only needs to look at the data and the charts to realize where we are heading. It's summer time and nobody is in the mood for risk. Nothing positive is likely to happen until the next round of CB meetings next week, and even then, I don't expect much. So for this week, we only need to look at the technicals and the current prevailing fundamental drivers / investor & trader sentiment.

The E/U is fast approaching the all important psychological level at 1.2000... There is a large confluence of technical and psychological support at that price. However, there is no catalyst to cause a reversal from that level. Therefore while I do expect a bounce from there, I'm not too hopeful that it will be any more than a short covering in combination with a retail trader hopium bull. In other words, a bull trap. For the smart trader, it will be an opportunity to load up on fresh short positions before the bearish resumption to areas below 1.2000. Until then, we can only play the intraday moves o0r nurse our higher priced existing shorts.

Until that crunch time comes along, I'm just sitting pretty waiting for something significant to happen.

As I type, I see a 57 pip spike which was probably caused by ECB's Nowotny claiming that he sees some arguments for possibly giving the ESM a banking license (Over Merkel's dead body). I expect this pop to be faded fast. This is the sort of thing we can expect until next week. Loads of speculation, but no meat and potatoes.

Good luck and lots of green pips to everyone.

E/U Daily

just the numbers... looking for a confirmed rejection of a strong area of resistance and then a channel break to enter.. Im currently short per the plan. My stop is 30 pips above the high... We will see

I was just thinking about that and writing down some of my thoughts about this:
Lot of ppl were expecting deep pullbacks on EUR journey to the south... and it didnt happend, because of bad "funda". And now every day bad news, than bad news, than even worse news. What will ignite a short covering rally for getting a deeper pullback? Only some big bazooka from politicians, IMO. And it will be short lived. Until then, IMO, only sideways and down. Funda is bad. For bigger upmove - big bazooka, OR pair falls to the rock bottom, and the trend changes.

Something I learned few years ago from one trader/instructor from Saxo bank - Trend very often end with a bang. Meaning that the last leg up or down is the biggest one. I dont see a bang here yet. EUR was bellow 1.18 allready before, so this price now is on familiar teritory.

It is summer, maybe lower liquidity - bigger volatility, so I personally will trade with smaller lots and bigger SLs. Nothing is more frustrating than got stopped just because your SL was 5 pips smaller than it should, and yet you were right about direction.

What a beautiful morning it is here in uk,and to make it even better look how the markets opened e/u g/u a/u and e/g all beautiful movers up and now i will set triggers for any nice little drops and compound theem to death lol. Take care happy trading . i used simple directional cross overs to trade .