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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #43,961
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:50am Jul 24, 2012 5:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
..
I think that's enough to set the overall sentiment to wildly bearish. Don't you?
.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,962
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:52am Jul 24, 2012 5:52am
...what he said

Quoting PipTrapper
It is enough that as long as the market believes it will be carnage when 2090 is cleared, then you can take that to the bank as the perception quickly becomes reality when the markets starts shorting the Euro based on said perception. A self fulfilling prophecy.

As for the underlying fundamental factors, we are facing a possible strain on the EZ purse with a much needed bailout for Spain (unless they exit the Euro, which will be worse) and then Italy to follow... Not to mention that Greece is on the verge of an apocalypse.

I think that's enough...
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #43,963
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:52am Jul 24, 2012 5:52am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Better huh? Do you know how much they raised? I mean, I have totally no clue of how much debt Spain holds in such a short term bonds, so it could be from 3Bn up to 10Bn.
Spain sold 1.63 Bln in 3 month bills and 1.42 Bln in 6 month bills

3-month yield 2.434% vs 2.362% last. Bid to cover ratio 2.9 vs 2.6 last

6-month yield 3.691% vs 3.237% last. Bid to cover ratio 3.0 vs 2.8 last
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,964
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:57am Jul 24, 2012 5:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
Spain sold 1.63 Bln in 3 month bills and 1.42 Bln in 6 month bills
Hail to the databank . Thx a lot mate. Well, I thought this will have way way bigger impact. But market is probably not watching short term debt rerolls. Why could that be? Maybe because Spain has enough short term cash? Remember 30Bn at GSM which still havent been used. Where is the money, where, sniff, where?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,965
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:58am Jul 24, 2012 5:58am
They change as the day goes on however by marking them down at 7:00 this morning we can see where they started from.

First we start with EUR/USD - 1.2087

Then EUR/JPY which is a leading indicator. EUR/JPY - 94.45

Then USD/JPY which for the moment is a place where the MONEY goes partly with Risk Off along with the US Dollar.

USD/JPY - 78.15

Dow Futures - Down 20 now.

Oil is at $87.95 and Gold is at $1572 US.

Now The KEY NUMBERS for the MONEY FLOW is the 2 Year US Bonds at .22% at the moment and the 10 Year US Bonds are at 1.44% with the SPREAD 122 Basis Points.

As NEW FUNDAMENTAL INFORMATION becomes known all these numbers above change.

The movement of the DOW UP or DOWN is a FUNDAMENTAL FACT and without upsetting any technical traders here such as my Buddy the Charts change as the momentum and numbers change.

I am just the Messenger so please do not shoot me. Thanks !!!
  • #43,966
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:59am Jul 24, 2012 5:59am
Quoting andys0506
Oh I agree entirely that the Euro is screwed. I myself am only trading short for the foreseeable. I was more questioning why the line in the sand of 2090 had been drawn.
The daily chart should help clarify things. Look at the 161.8% fibo line. That's very significant. If it clears the 161.8 fibo, the next major one is 261.8%

E/U Daily
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,967
  • Jul 24, 2012 6:00am Jul 24, 2012 6:00am
Quoting CurrencyMan
There were some important new developments in the stock market Monday, July 23rd. We got a Hindenburg Omen observation, the first of two necessary to have an official Hindenburg Omen on the clock. Once we get two within 31 days, it means there is a higher than random possibility of a stock market crash coming over the next four months.

[font=Microsoft Sans Serif]There are four conditions required for a Hindenburg Omen observation. The primary requirement is that the lesser of both NYSE New 52 Week Highs...
mmm - are you a follower of Eric Hadik and his Weekly Re-Lay - he's a good source of the Hindenburg and similar triggers......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #43,968
  • Jul 24, 2012 6:02am Jul 24, 2012 6:02am
Quoting andys0506
Firstly please excuse my ignorance I am trying to learn

So money has moved out of US stocks, and into the Yen and Kiwi as they are seen as safer bets at present?
You are not ignorant since you want to learn. Your head is not in the sand.

My best skill is that I know what I do not know and I learn from others better than myself. PipTrapper has skills I do not have on the Technical side and I learn from him and others.

Once you think you know it all than you know nothing.
  • #43,969
  • Jul 24, 2012 6:05am Jul 24, 2012 6:05am
Quoting CurrencyMan
You are not ignorant since you want to learn. Your head is not in the sand.

My best skill is that I know what I do not know and I learn from others better than myself. PipTrapper has skills I do not have on the Technical side and I learn from him and others.

Once you think you know it all than you know nothing.
Amen
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,970
  • Jul 24, 2012 6:05am Jul 24, 2012 6:05am
Daily Forex BriefLondon: Tuesday 24th July 2012It just gets worse and worseRisk assets and currencies were walloped on the first day of the new week, not helped by the deteriorating situation in Spain, Italy and Greece (see below). Moody's contributed to the pervasive pessimism by announcing that the outlook for the Aaa credit rating of Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg had been lowered to negative, citing risks that Greece might exit the euro and the potential financial burden of supporting the likes of Spain and Italy. By the end of the current quarter, Moody's will also have made a decision on the Aaa rating of both France and Austria; both were placed on negative watch back in February. Most major European bourses were down by over 2%; in Spain, stocks declined 12% in less than two days before the authorities decided to follow Italy's lead and put a ban on short-selling shares for three months. In currency markets, high-beta currencies such as the Aussie fell by more than 1%, and the euro fell below 1.21 to a new 2yr low. Both the dollar and the Japanese yen prospered, with the dollar index reaching a 2yr high. Commodities fell sharply, copper down more than 2%, oil prices more than 3% lower at one stage and gold down almost USD 20 from its high for the day. G4 government bond yields continued to fall to new depths, while yields in both Spain and Italy soared. Overnight, the mood has stabilised slightly after a preliminary reading for HSBC's China manufacturing PMI for July came out stronger than expected.
http://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/fxpro-newDB.gifhttp://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/daily-briefDB.gifhttp://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/marketnewsDB.gifhttp://www.fxpro.com/sites/default/f...perf%2024h.png
  • #43,971
  • Jul 24, 2012 6:06am Jul 24, 2012 6:06am
Amen.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,972
  • Jul 24, 2012 6:46am Jul 24, 2012 6:46am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
This is it precisely: "Generations - History of America's Future"
Authors: Strauss and Howe

Thx for looking,

T

Sorry Mate !! i havent got that book as i really dont know nothing about futures and never been interested in them , anyway i found a review of that book on amazon the below link i hope it will help

http://www.amazon.com/Generations-Hi.../dp/0688119123

sorry again !!!
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #43,973
  • Jul 24, 2012 7:08am Jul 24, 2012 7:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
Amen
how dare CM say we dont know anything,we even know that we dont know nothing,bruce ur an embarassment to whole Euroanalysis community u should understand we here are little masters of universelol j/k
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #43,974
  • Jul 24, 2012 7:12am Jul 24, 2012 7:12am
Quoting balanced2012
Sorry Mate !! i havent got that book..
Why do you sorry man? You are sorry for looking for a book for me?

Thanks a lot you had a look, I appreciate that. Btw, it is not about futures, but about social cycles. Strauss and Howe are trying to identify cycles of mankind social models. They have discovered, that since 18th century (or so) human race moves in approximately 45 year long cycles where idea binding mankind together is either material or theological. It is kinda hard to describe it, since I still didnt read that book, but my point of reading it is hunger for historical data. "Historia es magistra vitae" is my second favourite statemet.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,975
  • Jul 24, 2012 7:13am Jul 24, 2012 7:13am
Italian 10-year bond yield climbs to 6.5%, first time since January.
  • #43,976
  • Jul 24, 2012 7:40am Jul 24, 2012 7:40am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Why do you sorry man? You are sorry for looking for a book for me?

Thanks a lot you had a look, I appreciate that. Btw, it is not about futures, but about social cycles. Strauss and Howe are trying to identify cycles of mankind social models. They have discovered, that since 18th century (or so) human race moves in approximately 45 year long cycles where idea binding mankind together is either material or theological. It is kinda hard to describe it, since I still didnt read that book, but my point of reading it is hunger for historical...
one has to know the past to see the future clearly
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #43,977
  • Jul 24, 2012 7:41am Jul 24, 2012 7:41am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Why do you sorry man? You are sorry for looking for a book for me?

Thanks a lot you had a look, I appreciate that. Btw, it is not about futures, but about social cycles. Strauss and Howe are trying to identify cycles of mankind social models. They have discovered, that since 18th century (or so) human race moves in approximately 45 year long cycles where idea binding mankind together is either material or theological. It is kinda hard to describe it, since I still didnt read that book, but my point of reading it is hunger for historical...
trading forum , futures and options ? lol i thought its trading related man !!
im just sorry coz i couldnt help thats all by the way its more than 2000 pages good luck with that
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #43,978
  • Jul 24, 2012 7:42am Jul 24, 2012 7:42am
Let buy Euro @ 1.2077 from those who want to sell atleast for decent correction.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #43,979
  • Jul 24, 2012 7:43am Jul 24, 2012 7:43am
Quoting balanced2012
trading forum , futures and options ? lol i thought its trading related man !!
It is 100% trading related . It is just a small part of my lifetime journey.

Edit: Btw, its 544 pages, thats a few.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,980
  • Jul 24, 2012 7:48am Jul 24, 2012 7:48am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
It is 100% trading related . It is just a small part of my lifetime journey.

T

yes Now it is sure it is !!!!
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
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