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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #43,941
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:17am Jul 24, 2012 5:17am
Sorry Guys.Missed 1 attachment
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  • #43,942
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:19am Jul 24, 2012 5:19am
Good morning,

I have overslept a bit, since I woke up @ start of London, saw we are still stuck in a range. so I went to sleep again. The top of this range is 21335. I have tried to short there yesterday, but chickend out and closed at BE. Bad luck. I have marked bottom of the range 2091. It is not precise, I know, since I am still looking for that compass and pergamen.

GL today,

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,943
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:19am Jul 24, 2012 5:19am
Quoting Tsar
How about GREECE ? I mean... the Last Report
Greece 10 Year Yield (Daily Chart)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,944
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:20am Jul 24, 2012 5:20am
i hope it will be helpful for you all !!!

http://www.global-view.com/setup/setupeu.html

http://www.tradingclinic.com/gvi/set...gvieurfri.html

good luck to you all
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #43,945
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:26am Jul 24, 2012 5:26am
The important point is, that this range is pretty small, dont you think? I mean, after we broke such an important support and Spain falling from the cliff. 50 pips? Whats that? Imho market is digesting new conditions and will fall pretty soon. But he doesnt need to digest it for long if you ask me. Conditions are pretty clear, so lets say he decides today. Very important catalyst will imo be Spanish short term debt reroll. I wonder what time will that be.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,946
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:34am Jul 24, 2012 5:34am
There were some important new developments in the stock market Monday, July 23rd. We got a Hindenburg Omen observation, the first of two necessary to have an official Hindenburg Omen on the clock. Once we get two within 31 days, it means there is a higher than random possibility of a stock market crash coming over the next four months.

There are four conditions required for a Hindenburg Omen observation. The primary requirement is that the lesser of both NYSE New 52 Week Highs and Lows must be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day. Well, the lesser was 2.99 percent. New highs cannot be more than twice new lows. That condition is met. The McClellan Oscillator must be negative. It was. The 50 day Moving Average must be rising. It was Rising very mildly over the past few weeks.


The other important development was we got new sell signals in our short-term key trend-finder indicators for the blue chips and the small caps, joining the tech stocks in a sell signal. The Secondary Trend Indicator remains on a sell signal. This suggests stocks are starting a declining trend that should produce lower prices over the coming weeks. The Elliott Wave scenario we show on page 25, a Rising Bearish Wedge, allows for a decline to around 11,500ish in the Industrials. Then, a final wave E-up rally would follow to new highs for 2012 to a major top late in 2012 or early 2013. This is the course we expect prices to take the remainder of 2012.

CurrencyMan:

As the Dow goes down we HAVE RISK OFF !!!

The money leaves the Dow and others, SP500, NASDAQ, FTSE, CAC, DAX and the MONEY goes into US Bonds.

It is that simple.

The Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds is .21% now and the 10 Year US Bonds are 1.44%.

If you learn this you have an EDGE !!!

All comments welcome on this topic.

Einstein said "Play The Game Better Than Everyone Else"
http://thinkexist.com/quotation/you_...en/253063.html


“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.”
  • #43,947
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:36am Jul 24, 2012 5:36am
Quoting balanced2012
i hope it will be helpful for you all !!!
Yo Balanced, dont you have book from Strauss and Howe - Generations - History of American Future in your e-book collection? I am just trying to find it. It is not at google books, I have already checked.

Thx,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,948
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:38am Jul 24, 2012 5:38am
Ok, so risk OFF money goes into bonds.
What does that mean for the EUR/USD?
Does it mean stronger USD so EUR/USD will fall? So put simply a correlation between DOW and EUR/USD?
  • #43,949
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:38am Jul 24, 2012 5:38am
it'll be carnage when 2090 is cleared
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #43,950
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:39am Jul 24, 2012 5:39am
Quoting andys0506
Ok, so risk OFF money goes into bonds.
What does that mean for the EUR/USD?
Does it mean stronger USD so EUR/USD will fall? So put simply a correlation between DOW and EUR/USD?
http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?rela...87086636090000
  • #43,951
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:40am Jul 24, 2012 5:40am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yo Balanced, dont you have book from Strauss and Howe - Generations - History of American Future in your e-book collection? I am just trying to find it. It is not at google books, I have already checked.

Thx,

T

let me check and get back to you but could you please confirm the name ?
Generations - History of American Future is that right as i didn't read it
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #43,952
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:40am Jul 24, 2012 5:40am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
The important point is, that this range is pretty small, dont you think? I mean, after we broke such an important support and Spain falling from the cliff. 50 pips? Whats that? Imho market is digesting new conditions and will fall pretty soon. But he doesnt need to digest it for long if you ask me. Conditions are pretty clear, so lets say he decides today. Very important catalyst will imo be Spanish short term debt reroll. I wonder what time will that be.
You missed it. It was at 8:40am GMT. The bid to cover was better than last time with almost full take up but obviously yields were higher. Since it come out as expected, it did not move the market too much. Let's see what NY thinks.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,953
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:42am Jul 24, 2012 5:42am
Quoting cgldsmth
it'll be carnage when 2090 is cleared
Why, can you substantiate?
  • #43,954
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:44am Jul 24, 2012 5:44am
Could happen ?
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  • #43,955
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:44am Jul 24, 2012 5:44am
Quoting CurrencyMan
http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?rela...87086636090000
Firstly please excuse my ignorance I am trying to learn

So money has moved out of US stocks, and into the Yen and Kiwi as they are seen as safer bets at present?
  • #43,956
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:46am Jul 24, 2012 5:46am
Quoting balanced2012
let me check and get back to you but could you please confirm the name ?
Generations - History of American Future is that right as i didn't read it
This is it precisely: "Generations - History of America's Future"
Authors: Strauss and Howe

Thx for looking,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,957
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:46am Jul 24, 2012 5:46am
Quoting andys0506
Why, can you substantiate?
It is enough that as long as the market believes it will be carnage when 2090 is cleared, then you can take that to the bank as the perception quickly becomes reality when the markets starts shorting the Euro based on said perception. A self fulfilling prophecy.

As for the underlying fundamental factors, we are facing a possible strain on the EZ purse with a much needed bailout for Spain (unless they exit the Euro, which will be worse) and then Italy to follow... Not to mention that Greece is on the verge of an apocalypse.

I think that's enough to set the overall sentiment to wildly bearish. Don't you?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,958
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:47am Jul 24, 2012 5:47am
When the USA lost it's Triple AAA status last year the US Dollar went up.

Why was this. It is because the US Dollar is still for the moment the Reserve Currency of the World.

This is only because Bernake has an electronic printing press.

War in Syria and the cost will be One Trillion well No Problem. Print up One Trillion by selling US Bonds to the Treasury. That causes Monetary Inflation as more MONEY creates less value and other Asset Classes such as Gold and Food go up in value to compensate for the loss in value of the US Dollar.

Since there is SO MUCH US DOLLARS around when holders of currencies other than the US Dollar want safety and some small yield they convert to US Dollars and the the US Dollars are PARKED in the 2 Year, 5 Year, 10 Year and 30 Year US Bonds so as the US Bonds go up the Yield goes down.

ONE DAY in the Future the US Bond BUBBLE will collapse and the Yields will be over 7%.

Just like in Spain now.

I will answer any follow up questions posted on our thread.
  • #43,959
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:48am Jul 24, 2012 5:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
You missed it. It was at 8:40am GMT. The bid to cover was better than last time...
Better huh? Do you know how much they raised? I mean, I have totally no clue of how much debt Spain holds in such a short term bonds, so it could be from 3Bn up to 10Bn.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,960
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:49am Jul 24, 2012 5:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
It is enough that as long as the market believes it will be carnage when 2090 is cleared, then you can take that to the bank as the perception quickly becomes reality when the markets starts shorting the Euro based on said perception. A self fulfilling prophecy.

As for the underlying fundamental factors, we are facing a possible strain on the EZ purse with a much needed bailout for Spain (unless they exit the Euro, which will be worse) and then Italy to follow... Not to mention that Greece is on the verge of an apocalypse.

I think that's enough...
Oh I agree entirely that the Euro is screwed. I myself am only trading short for the foreseeable. I was more questioning why the line in the sand of 2090 had been drawn.
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