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Euro/Dollar

  • #761
  • Jul 24, 2012 3:41am Jul 24, 2012 3:41am
Quoting Crassius
A week ago I agreed that the soft bottom in the Euro was not enough to put in a bottom that would hold and give a foundation for a corrective bounce of any tradable size for me to consider longs. I was looking for a dramatic sharp drop into the areas I put on the post a week ago.



The low yesterday was 1.2067 and completes for me a full move down that now warrants serious consideration of longs in the right conditions as I see a corrective wave to come off the 1.2067 low back toward 1.2320 to 1.2400.

So my bias has changed to neutral.... fundamentally...
That's damn good precision if you ask me
One thing I don't get it, so much doom & gloom since yesterday, spanish bonds, another greece tragedy to unfold yet again by september, PMI, indices and commodities droping and still euro playing ping pong with dollar. If not today's PMI's and spanish bonds what is need it to push as lower where we should be?
We have seen bigger moves on pure rumours and no reaction on actual number.
swing it!
  • #762
  • Jul 24, 2012 3:43am Jul 24, 2012 3:43am
Quoting FXMindset
Morning Gays,

Range area to watch in current 4H box 1.2090 - 1.2131
Supply area with double top @ 1.2131
Bull Pinbar on Smaller timeframe @ 1.2090

GL
Give us something hot euro,stop the pingpong game liao lah ~
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #763
  • Jul 24, 2012 3:54am Jul 24, 2012 3:54am
Quoting FXMindset
Give us something hot euro,stop the pingpong game liao lah ~

another
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #764
  • Jul 24, 2012 3:56am Jul 24, 2012 3:56am
Quoting Crassius
A week ago I agreed that the soft bottom in the Euro was not enough to put in a bottom that would hold and give a foundation for a corrective bounce of any tradable size for me to consider longs. I was looking for a dramatic sharp drop into the areas I put on the post a week ago.



The low yesterday was 1.2067 and completes for me a full move down that now warrants serious consideration of longs in the right conditions as I see a corrective wave to come off the 1.2067 low back toward 1.2320 to 1.2400.

So my bias has changed to neutral.......

I am with you on that looking at daily, whilst there is plenty of room to go down further, the current move is running out of steam and on the daily chart touched the far side of my primary target zone yesterday @ 1.2067.

It could of course move on down and I have a secondary zone 1.198x to 1.196x but we should also now be on the look out for a corrective move.

I am currently flat on EU long on Dax and FTSE short on Crude
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  • #765
  • Jul 24, 2012 3:58am Jul 24, 2012 3:58am
Quoting MaxDoom
This is some info for iNSIELD who was asking me if I saw a GBPJPY short to 119.00 put it on here then others can also make of it what they will

Firstly, everything does not keep going in one direction and I think that a lot of the markets, currencies, indicies etc. are all getting over-extended so I am starting to look for technical reasons to be flat or turn. IE: being conservative

Daily: there are two simple counts:
Chart 1: 1st the correction count of the move down 133.47 to 118.7x Mar-May'12 this has so far made almost 50% and...
very nice, one thing to remember with her is she is well named the "beast" add to this the possability boj is lurking, makes her even more dangerous, I believe japan is in huge bubble and underr extreme stress, the probability either bubble is burst or boj forced to make another pathetic attempt intervention.

If except this risk, can sell her with tight reins very tight, if skyrocket no when skyrocjket come, definitely dont want to be on the wrong side

I am not trying to declare or pick bottoms stuff, the 116 82 "is" a historical low, can it be broken, cause it can, old adage buy low sell high, is even more critical

normally bottoms take longer than tops to form, I dont believe this will be for geppy, this time, extreme lows, stretched bubble economically, is make for exciting times ahead, I have selled her for long time and done very nice of her, but these levels, I happy to stay sideline for awhile, lower I be happy, bounce, rejection whatever, I am dropping this girl like a hot rock, and leave her to the bulls
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #766
  • Jul 24, 2012 4:02am Jul 24, 2012 4:02am
Good morning
boring uh?
I'm short @2110 tp @2083, hope can reach it, I have my doubts.
  • #767
  • Jul 24, 2012 4:05am Jul 24, 2012 4:05am
Quoting FxCba
Good morning
boring uh?
I'm short @2110 tp @2083, hope can reach it, I have my doubts.
I'll leave it like it is with stops and go away from screens - the best thing I can do right now, good luck with your short mate and welcome in our thread
swing it!
  • #768
  • Jul 24, 2012 4:06am Jul 24, 2012 4:06am
Quoting KiwiTrada
very nice, one thing to remember with her is she is well named the "beast" add to this the possability boj is lurking, makes her even more dangerous, I believe japan is in huge bubble and underr extreme stress, the probability either bubble is burst or boj forced to make another pathetic attempt intervention.

If except this risk, can sell her with tight reins very tight, if skyrocket no when skyrocjket come, definitely dont want to be on the wrong side

I am not trying to declare or pick bottoms stuff, the 116 82 "is" a historical...

thanks for the feedback. It is not a pair I trade normally, I did the analysis for someone else. but having done it I will be keeping an eye out for that possible turn and confirmation as the upside is good.
  • #769
  • Jul 24, 2012 4:12am Jul 24, 2012 4:12am
Quoting tomspin
... go away from screens...
this is the hardest part

Quote
and welcome in our thread
Thank you
  • #770
  • Jul 24, 2012 4:18am Jul 24, 2012 4:18am
Quoting MaxDoom
I am with you on that looking at daily, whilst there is plenty of room to go down further, the current move is running out of steam and on the daily chart touched the far side of my primary target zone yesterday @ 1.2067.

It could of course move on down and I have a secondary zone 1.198x to 1.196x but we should also now be on the look out for a corrective move.

I am currently flat on EU long on Dax and FTSE short on Crude
I use the analysis I post here only to determine my bias.. from longer, usually daily time frame..... I am changing to neutral not bullish....

I hear you about 1.1980ish, and agree its a possible target.... and I wont be surprised to see lower from here..... I just have opened up the possibility to take longs if my entry signal forms for a long entry.... I have been exclusively short biased and have been ignoring my long signals of late....

Any up side will likely be choppy, but it does have some room to move.
  • #771
  • Jul 24, 2012 4:18am Jul 24, 2012 4:18am
hourly
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #772
  • Jul 24, 2012 4:25am Jul 24, 2012 4:25am
Quoting tomspin
That's damn good precision if you ask me
One thing I don't get it, so much doom & gloom since yesterday, spanish bonds, another greece tragedy to unfold yet again by september, PMI, indices and commodities droping and still euro playing ping pong with dollar. If not today's PMI's and spanish bonds what is need it to push as lower where we should be?
We have seen bigger moves on pure rumours and no reaction on actual number.

I wrote an answer to this that got lost when the server jammed up busy.... too long to recreate...

Short version... longer term players will see a lot of confluences of support areas, and technical pictures that will have them buying dips here... their price action has the potential to form a bottom that is broad enough to warrant a corrective wave higher.... They will play with stops that are hundreds of pips wide.... so they are building positions from this level... they will keep buying and slowing momentum down....

I a lot of scary stuff is already in the price.... more scary stuff on the way... this is a slow train wreck....

I am only changing from bias Bear to bias neutral....
  • #773
  • Jul 24, 2012 4:30am Jul 24, 2012 4:30am
Quoting FXMindset
hourly
hourly ascending tested
today might continues down again
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #774
  • Jul 24, 2012 4:42am Jul 24, 2012 4:42am
short trade on crude - target 87.8x to 87.9x
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  • #775
  • Edited 5:46am Jul 24, 2012 5:35am | Edited 5:46am
Quoting MaxDoom
short trade on crude - target 87.8x to 87.9x

target zone touched SL to BE

50% off rest on a trail
  • #776
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:43am Jul 24, 2012 5:43am
Aussie & Sterling breaking away
targets

1,0132
1,5300

http://s15.postimage.org/67jnuvz3v/aussie.gif

http://s15.postimage.org/3rhuh1h17/gbp.gif


upload picture
swing it!
  • #777
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:45am Jul 24, 2012 5:45am
Crassius thanks for explanation mate, that make sense to me know
swing it!
  • #778
  • Jul 24, 2012 6:15am Jul 24, 2012 6:15am
Quoting tomspin
Aussie & Sterling breaking away
targets

1,0132
1,5300
I have just taken a small long position on cable based on:

1) hourly double bottom
2) back above 1.55
3) looking for correction of move down from 1.573x
4) Possible start of larger correction (on wave C) on daily - that wil be a bonus if I catch the start
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  • #779
  • Jul 24, 2012 6:30am Jul 24, 2012 6:30am
Good day to you,

Entered long scalp - current counter trend trade. Not sure what will be offered . Indicator based trade.

Regards
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  • #780
  • Jul 24, 2012 6:51am Jul 24, 2012 6:51am
Quoting MaxDoom
short trade on crude - target 87.8x to 87.9x
full target reached $0.68 trade closed
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