Meh,
Trade idea earlier good - execution F*ucked
Try again
Trade idea earlier good - execution F*ucked
Try again
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- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts
Gud night gays, 
Viva Technical Analysis
Viva Technical Analysis
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
- | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 13,260 Posts
Cable made a nice little bear flag. Looks like it's falling apart already.
maybe, but it is the least convincing of my setups and I have been starting to think about longs on Cable
edit: in fact I have closed it
maybe, but it is the least convincing of my setups and I have been starting to think about longs on Cable
- | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 13,260 Posts
Yeah, if you look at the daily it looks very range bound. It's also sitting right above a whole number right now. Very possible it could trade back into it's daily range. Move down could be the old frankie fakeout. This is why I never take trades until London opens
I keep looking at the daily, and it is still very corrective in nature with some nice upside potential to 1.59 just need it to turn before it takes 1.539x
- | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 13,260 Posts
This is some info for iNSIELD who was asking me if I saw a GBPJPY short to 119.00 put it on here then others can also make of it what they will 
Firstly, everything does not keep going in one direction and I think that a lot of the markets, currencies, indicies etc. are all getting over-extended so I am starting to look for technical reasons to be flat or turn. IE: being conservative
Daily: there are two simple counts:
Chart 1: 1st the correction count of the move down 133.47 to 118.7x Mar-May'12 this has so far made almost 50% and most corrections end in between 50% and 78% - with this in mind a long would be targeting 127.1x to 128.7x but you would first need to wait for the daily to make a new low point (2 bars to confirm ideally) so if yesterdays low holds that could be after tomorrow. See chart 1
Chart 2: 2nd: the move down from 133.4x could be a 5 wave trend count and this is possibly supported by the fact that it has exceeded 78% of the previous move up to 133.4x.
The problem with this count is the limited room between points w1 and w4 and that the action since w4 looks corrective whereas a wave 5 would normally have a bit more power. Also the targets are showing two zones, 1st would give a short wave 5 a possible 120.2x to 119.4x the second is way out there at 116.8x.
4 Hourly:
Chart 3 - zooming in to the H4 I would look for the status of the correction of the lastest run up from 118.7x to 125.8x and we can see that it is consolidating around the 61% zone which is in the 50-78 zone for a normal correction to end.
The primary target zone here ends at 121.2x which is current position.
Hourly:
Chart 4 - looking at just the latest move it appears that we have a 5 wave trend with targets from 120.9x to 120.0x but biased towards a number greater than 120.7x
Putting it all together yes until we see a new daily low - shorts play but I think 119 is a stretch but if you get in with enough headroom 120.7x looks possible anything below a bonus.
Obviously, price can go anywhere this is just a probabilty projection
Firstly, everything does not keep going in one direction and I think that a lot of the markets, currencies, indicies etc. are all getting over-extended so I am starting to look for technical reasons to be flat or turn. IE: being conservative
Daily: there are two simple counts:
Chart 1: 1st the correction count of the move down 133.47 to 118.7x Mar-May'12 this has so far made almost 50% and most corrections end in between 50% and 78% - with this in mind a long would be targeting 127.1x to 128.7x but you would first need to wait for the daily to make a new low point (2 bars to confirm ideally) so if yesterdays low holds that could be after tomorrow. See chart 1
Chart 2: 2nd: the move down from 133.4x could be a 5 wave trend count and this is possibly supported by the fact that it has exceeded 78% of the previous move up to 133.4x.
The problem with this count is the limited room between points w1 and w4 and that the action since w4 looks corrective whereas a wave 5 would normally have a bit more power. Also the targets are showing two zones, 1st would give a short wave 5 a possible 120.2x to 119.4x the second is way out there at 116.8x.
4 Hourly:
Chart 3 - zooming in to the H4 I would look for the status of the correction of the lastest run up from 118.7x to 125.8x and we can see that it is consolidating around the 61% zone which is in the 50-78 zone for a normal correction to end.
The primary target zone here ends at 121.2x which is current position.
Hourly:
Chart 4 - looking at just the latest move it appears that we have a 5 wave trend with targets from 120.9x to 120.0x but biased towards a number greater than 120.7x
Putting it all together yes until we see a new daily low - shorts play but I think 119 is a stretch but if you get in with enough headroom 120.7x looks possible anything below a bonus.
Obviously, price can go anywhere this is just a probabilty projection
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your