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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #43,901
  • Jul 23, 2012 4:20pm Jul 23, 2012 4:20pm
haha indeed. I was surprised to see the ban on short selling in Spain and Italy

currently listening to: Andrea Bocelli duet Sarah Brightman - Time to say goodbye

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  • #43,902
  • Jul 23, 2012 4:25pm Jul 23, 2012 4:25pm
Say goodbye to what ? It's still a race to the bottom. And Euro is racing good.

Quoting neuron
haha indeed. I was surprised to see the ban on short selling in Spain and Italy

currently listening to: Andrea Bocelli duet Sarah Brightman - Time to say goodbye

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohXI3po8hK0
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #43,903
  • Jul 23, 2012 4:27pm Jul 23, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting Thijs
Say goodbye to what ? It's still a race to the bottom. And Euro is racing good.
to its value, although the goodbye was said a long time ago, guess my dedication is a little belated
  • #43,904
  • Jul 23, 2012 4:36pm Jul 23, 2012 4:36pm
On Greece: “Should Greece follow the path of Argentina? That would result in a horrendous drop in the standard of living and social benefits and if that were politically possible why not do it inside the euro?”
What’s to be done: “The necessary adjustment is clear to everyone and the successful model is the United States. The first is the creation of a unified banking system for Europe.”
Should the euro/dollar be managed? “The huge swings in the dollar-euro exchange rate — and between areas that have about the same rate of inflation — have aggravated the financial problems of every country in the world and are at the root of most of the crises.”
On the Fed: “The Fed fails to understand the significance for U.S. monetary policy of the creation of the euro.”
The full text of Terence Corcoran’s interview with Robert Mundell appears below.

FP COMMENT: What can or should be done now to save the euro? Or is it, as many commentators claim, at the end of its life?
MUNDELL: The euro is not the problem. The problem within the European Union and the European Monetary Union is government deficits and the debts of a few countries, mostly in Southern Europe. It is a failure of fiscal discipline that has threatened the solvency of the debt-ridden countries whose high deficits are due in large part to the current recession in Europe and more generally the slowdown of the world economy. The debts would only become a problem for the euro if these deficits led the European Central Bank (ECB) to create substantial inflation to try to bail out these countries.
It is curious how American and sometimes North American economists have tried to nail the deficit problem as a “euro” problem. If the Government of Canada or Newfoundland or Ontario ran up their public debts, and had big current deficits to boot, would that be a debt-deficit problem or a loonie problem? If California is on the verge of insolvency would that be a U.S. dollar problem or a debt-default problem for California?
Many prominent American economists hated the idea of the euro and predicted its collapse if it came into being. They now seem to be trying to validate their past predictions. But bygones are bygones and the euro — barring a political revolution in Europe — is here to stay.


http://opinion.financialpost.com/201...-here-to-stay/
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #43,905
  • Jul 23, 2012 4:45pm Jul 23, 2012 4:45pm
Quoting neuron
moody downgrade, probably coincidence..
Thats definitely not coincidence. Moodys always downgrade during correction and in timely manner to help me.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,906
  • Jul 23, 2012 5:12pm Jul 23, 2012 5:12pm
moody effected eur usd -20 pip. Well done Moodys. Volkswagen,BMW,mercedes,adidas,eon, bayer,metro,porche bla bla bla. If you downgrade Germany s outlook negative i am saying that its a proof how unqualified and incapacitated workings you have.

I just opened long position from 2114. Thank you very much Moodys. 1.20 will not break so easy (it will but not now).
Its not an advice and sorry for grammar.
  • #43,907
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:39pm Jul 23, 2012 8:39pm
Quoting drzakir123
my objective for coming to this thread is to learn fundamental analysis and long term trading through the prism of price action.it might have been lot helpful if i know how u come to the conclusion that price will reach 1.70.i wanted to know ur mental stance on longer time frame,to know what ur economic professor thought u.
Just look at the weekly charts - June 2010 the low was 1.1876 and the situation in the EZ is a whole lot worse now than then.

Quoting drzakir123
i am trying to understand why i am trying to be long when market is in down trend,what is it which is making me to tilt the wrong side,what is it inside me which is pushing me take smaller profit and keeping loses,depsite knowing everyting theoritically about it fundamentally and technically.there are no easy answer but once i got hold and discover the answer ,the answer specific to me then everything is easy.see i am still learning for past 5 yrs and markets not easy becos its emotional.i am of the view that ones one has suffer enuff pain practically...
drzakir, I read what you've written and I'll write what a mentor told me several years ago [Please note I'm repeating very similar advice I was told and at the time I felt it was a slap in my face; but it was true]

Your religous and personal views are influencing your "need" to see the USD sink to lows and in order for that to occur you 'hope' that EUR/USD will rise upward, when everything around tells you the opposite.

Technically there is nothing showing support for the EUR. Fundamentally the EUR shouldn't even exist. The ONLY reason that the EZ can stay together is if the members find a common enemy. A common cause is nice but when people find a common enemy they put aside their differences in order to 'defeat' the enemy.

Trading in Forex means you have to check your personal and cultural beliefs at the door. It's wonderful to have pride in your country but that will not support that countries price. Once you get over your own personal likes/dislikes of other cultures and look at the NUMBERS and CHARTS it is so much easier to make money.

When you find that your position is negative but you 'know' the market is being 'manipulated' DO NOT DOUBLE DOWN because...[insert your own excuse here]. The markets don't care about your feelings. The markets don't care if you are sensitive. The markets don't care if you worship Mohammed, Jesus, Budda, etc., and the markets don't answer prayers.

If you keep taking smaller profits that means you're trading scared and it's time to stop trading and re-visit your trading plan. How much are you willing to risk for that gain and if you're cutting that gain shorter and shorter you're selling yourself short, you're not sticking to your plan or your plan is wrong. Stop and get over it.

Ask yourself this important questions: Do you want to be right and 'win' and argument or make money?
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #43,908
  • Edited 9:26pm Jul 23, 2012 9:13pm | Edited 9:26pm
Quoting fxsport
Just look at the weekly charts - June 2010 the low was 1.1876 and the situation in the EZ is a whole lot worse now than then.

...

Ask yourself this important questions: Do you want to be right and 'win' and argument or make money?
^^ This.

Trading should BE independent from everything else. Gods has no dictation on how the markets work.

It is the mental game that messes one up from trading. If a trade goes against one, then whats left? Higher power that's blinding one from the signals of trades? I been nearly 1/3 down this year, then i had to discover myself. Look around, read different things and KEPT AN OPEN MIND. The past will only hinder you and ego. Its human nature to 'debate' and 'refute' a statement, but if you bet money on it and lose on your 'right answer,' then your mind isnt open (been there many times heh).

Now, i am at BE (well up 1X% on my account) and since i joined this thread had three straight positive months. But hey, who am i to say, religion and trading could go hand and hand. I mean, as a buddhist/athiest/daoist (wrap that around your head ), there has to be a greedy doctrine on making $$$$ hehe.

Here are some good books:

Adventures of a Currency Trader: A Fable about Trading, Courage, and Doing the Right Thing

I read that book at a low point this year. Changed my style and how i trade.

And:

Bridgewater: Principles.

I can provide the last ebook, not sure if i'm allowed to. The Adventures book, you have to buy on paperback. That i can not provide, my funds are limited to myself only
  • #43,909
  • Jul 23, 2012 9:32pm Jul 23, 2012 9:32pm
what's your opinion on u/p?
i'm seeing a short position to continue from current retracement.
short 78.22 tp 77.57 that's about dm1.
trading u.p until i see a cleaner eu charts

thanks and green pips to everyone

G
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #43,910
  • Jul 23, 2012 10:23pm Jul 23, 2012 10:23pm
Hey guys

I just wanted to copy over my trade recos.. I apologize they are a bit late. One of them is already triggered

This next 24 hour period I will be focused on the EU only for live trading with a close eye on Swissy/Cable/ and Aussie as correlating pairs.
Fundamentally NOTHING has changed but the ranges are still smallish due to low summer volume. Although our downtrend is intact.


EUR/USD – current 1.2122 Let pair move to 1.2140/1.2150 area and reverse – Place SELL STOP 1.2128(triggered currently since price went to 1.2140) with a 20-40 pip TP target but monitoring momentum and news wires for a push.


SECONDARY entry 1.2099 Pair may bounce the first time so I will be looking to close my entire position here at 1.2080 unless we get a hard push to the 1.2000/1.2019 level


good luck everyone


Wulf
  • #43,911
  • Jul 24, 2012 12:33am Jul 24, 2012 12:33am
Quoting oundar
moody effected eur usd -20 pip. Well done Moodys. Volkswagen,BMW,mercedes,adidas,eon, bayer,metro,porche bla bla bla. If you downgrade Germany s outlook negative i am saying that its a proof how unqualified and incapacitated workings you have.

I just opened long position from 2114. Thank you very much Moodys. 1.20 will not break so easy (it will but not now).
Yea man. They will sell cars and other things all the time. Even if no one got money to buy them. Wait... oh right. Then they will not sell...
Got it?
  • #43,912
  • Jul 24, 2012 12:48am Jul 24, 2012 12:48am
Quoting hunter101
^^ This.

Trading should BE independent from everything else. Gods has no dictation on how the markets work.

It is the mental game that messes one up from trading. If a trade goes against one, then whats left? Higher power that's blinding one from the signals of trades? I been nearly 1/3 down this year, then i had to discover myself. Look around, read different things and KEPT AN OPEN MIND. The past will only hinder you and ego. Its human nature to 'debate' and 'refute' a statement, but if you bet money on it and lose on your 'right answer,'...
Excellent Hunt! Will try reading the books
  • #43,913
  • Jul 24, 2012 12:55am Jul 24, 2012 12:55am
I'm getting a funny feeling about August. Gold is compressing into this inner triangle, feel like we are approaching some sort of SHTF moment like last August (when gold exploded). I can see a very data filled week for the start of August, might be a catalyst for something. This year has tracked last year pretty closely for ups and downs and nothing is fixed and everything is probably worse... Sinister music.

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"Don't Panic..."
  • #43,914
  • Jul 24, 2012 1:37am Jul 24, 2012 1:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
Nice calendar for tomorrow. It's PMI day for China, EuroZone and USA.
That should make for a very bearish day, unless the economy in Europe starts to show promise. (Yeah right... )
The item of concern overnight is the HSBC China PMI. Keep a close watch on that one.

Events calendar for tomorrow (Times in GMT+0)
Attachment
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?day=jul24.2012

Good morning all.

Looks like the HSBC China Mfg PMI figure came in slightly better than expected and the highest number since February... yet the Euro doesn't care. Imagine if it was worse than expected.

Anyway today the focus will be on EZ PMI figures. First up is France at London open (07:00 GMT) followed by Germany at 07:30 and the whole EZ at 08:00

At around 08:30-08:45 we get the results of the Spanish 3 and 6 month bill auctions. This is the one to watch very very closely. The Bid to Cover will be the most important indicator of the bond market sentiment, but obviously then yield will determine the impact on Spain.

I suspect we may see some risk asset divergence today with equities flat to bullish and the Euro tanking down hard... but that's just a suspicion

Trade safe all.

E/U Daily
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E/U H4
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,915
  • Jul 24, 2012 1:49am Jul 24, 2012 1:49am
I guess that AEP wont be on Frau Merkel's Christmas Card list

GM PT - what's your take on this?......more than a grain of truth?

Who will hold the Troika to account for asphyxiating Greece?

Love him or loathe him, latest from AEP at The Telegraph.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #43,916
  • Edited 2:20am Jul 24, 2012 2:07am | Edited 2:20am
Quoting Islander
I guess that AEP wont be on Frau Merkel's Christmas Card list

GM PT - what's your take on this?......more than a grain of truth?

Who will hold the Troika to account for asphyxiating Greece?

Love him or loathe him, latest from AEP at The Telegraph.
AEP will never be on Merkel's anything list other than maybe the black list.

I don't read AEP's rants any more as they tend to be based on non-objective reasoning and high speculation based on fantasy.

Here is AEP's method of reporting..
1. Take a small piece of truth
2. Wrap it up in highly biased speculative BS
3. Present it as fact.
4. Write a subsequent article using the previous one as a source of the perceived facts.

I will read it, but I'm sure I will only conclude that it fits the above mentioned profile

ADD:

I just read it. So in a previous article AEP quotes Phillipp Reosler as saying...
"Unfortunately it is likely that Greece will not be able to fulfil (the troika's) requirements. And I say quite clearly, if Greece fails to comply with the requirements that there should be no more payments to Greece." and AEP concludes from that statement that Greece will leave the Eurozone. Then in this last article quoted by you, he uses that perceived and fictitious fact to state that "Germany has clearly taken the decision to expel Greece from the euro, whatever the new Greek government does"

So, in essence he has taken the speculation of an appointed bureaucrat and turned it around to make it seem like the wish of a country's people via a ratified decision in the Bundestag. Typical AEP.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,917
  • Jul 24, 2012 2:31am Jul 24, 2012 2:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
AEP will never be on Merkel's anything list other than maybe the black list.

I don't read AEP's rants any more as they tend to be based on non-objective reasoning and high speculation based on fantasy.

Here is AEP's method of reporting..
1. Take a small piece of truth
2. Wrap it up in highly biased speculative BS
3. Present it as fact.
4. Write a subsequent article using the previous one as a source of the perceived facts.

I will read it, but I'm sure I will only conclude that it fits the above mentioned profile

ADD:...
Thanks for taking the time to read and give your usual perceptive analysis - I needed a dose of objectivity to understand his biased approach....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon3.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #43,918
  • Jul 24, 2012 2:38am Jul 24, 2012 2:38am
Good Morning,

Quoting PipTrapper
So, in essence he has taken the speculation of an appointed bureaucrat and turned it around to make it seem like the wish of a country's people via a ratified decision in the Bundestag. Typical AEP.
Also nobody cares what Roesler says because his FDP is around 5% in elections over last years.
  • #43,919
  • Jul 24, 2012 3:04am Jul 24, 2012 3:04am
The PMI figures are now all out.

Nothing impressive but pretty much in the area of expectation so as not to be earth shattering.

Now it boils down to the Spanish bill auction results in 30 to 40 minutes from now.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,920
  • Jul 24, 2012 3:10am Jul 24, 2012 3:10am
Spain 10Y
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Italy 10Y
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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