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USD/JPY Discussion

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  • Post #31,181
  • Quote
  • Jul 22, 2012 10:55pm Jul 22, 2012 10:55pm
  •  CNTrader
  • Joined Jul 2012 | Status: "Winners knowl"!! | 2,171 Posts
Bullish butt combined with the potential of BOJ activity. Worth a shot at a long to me. Low risk trade vs reward w options for targets and stops depending on your risk tolerance.
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Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
 
 
  • Post #31,182
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  • Jul 22, 2012 11:02pm Jul 22, 2012 11:02pm
  •  fxtyrant
  • Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Member | 10,226 Posts
Actually id like to pose this question....
With risk aversion leading to strong YEN... why would people be buying YEN if the Japanese economy slips into recession due to lack of exports may i ask??
Yes indeed the yen strength is from risk aversion from other country... but whats the use of holding YEN if the Japanese economy is faltering ever since 1980?
Sooner or later the YEN will weaken, but we'll see significant moves when that happens....
for now... short on pullback with tight SL is the strategy to play...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
 
 
  • Post #31,183
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  • Jul 22, 2012 11:16pm Jul 22, 2012 11:16pm
  •  CNTrader
  • Joined Jul 2012 | Status: "Winners knowl"!! | 2,171 Posts
Quoting bguguen
Disliked
Actually id like to pose this question....
With risk aversion leading to strong YEN... why would people be buying YEN if the Japanese economy slips into recession due to lack of exports may i ask??
Yes indeed the yen strength is from risk aversion from other country... but whats the use of holding YEN if the Japanese economy is faltering ever since 1980?
Sooner or later the YEN will weaken, but we'll see significant moves when that happens....
for now... short on pullback with tight SL is the strategy to play...
Ignored
You make a great point!! And you are most likely gonna be right!! In the meantime I'm long until I hit targets or get stopped out or have another reason why I should be short that is stronger then the reasons Im long. LOL. For me nice Harmonic pattern at good structure and good RVR IMVHO with the BOJ sitting quietly incognito at these levels. But what the hell do I know? Read my signature lol
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
 
 
  • Post #31,184
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  • Jul 22, 2012 11:31pm Jul 22, 2012 11:31pm
  •  CNTrader
  • Joined Jul 2012 | Status: "Winners knowl"!! | 2,171 Posts
Quoting bguguen
Disliked
Actually id like to pose this question....
With risk aversion leading to strong YEN... why would people be buying YEN if the Japanese economy slips into recession due to lack of exports may i ask??
Yes indeed the yen strength is from risk aversion from other country... but whats the use of holding YEN if the Japanese economy is faltering ever since 1980?
Sooner or later the YEN will weaken, but we'll see significant moves when that happens....
for now... short on pullback with tight SL is the strategy to play...
Ignored

BTW if this is truly your thoughts on Usd/Jpy shouldnt you change your sentiment to bearish instead of bullish with conviction? Just sayin. Doesnt really matter to me lol. Im just a blind squirrell trying to find a nut.
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
 
 
  • Post #31,185
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  • Jul 22, 2012 11:39pm Jul 22, 2012 11:39pm
  •  fxtyrant
  • Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Member | 10,226 Posts
Quoting CNTrader
Disliked
BTW if this is truly your thoughts on Usd/Jpy shouldnt you change your sentiment to bearish instead of bullish with conviction? Just sayin. Doesnt really matter to me lol. Im just a blind squirrell trying to find a nut.
Ignored
to be honest with you im a bit confused why azumi or BOJ is allowing the YEN to go so strong... dont say they are broke or they dont have money...
we have seen time and time again how the Americans are printing money and getting themselves into debt and yet their economy survives...
BOJ can print money.... but i am really wondering why they are not doing anything yet....

NEVER EVER think that a National Bank can run out of money....
problem with the japanese economy is because of its early boom in 1980s, the economy has been in decline ever since and the YEN is deflating.... while demand for YEN is up.... even if they printed money, they will just owe people EVEN MORE money.... but its better than to see its economy by which they are export oriented, to completely die... THEN they will suffer big time on cost push inflation while their money's been deflating....

UPDATE: Latest figure of BOJ's Current Account Balance.... they got 22,200 Billion Yen... thats 22 Trillion Yen to flood the market if they please....
http://twitter.com/DailyFXTeam/statu...94662367154176

once again dont ever ever say the Japs are broke... yes their Debt to GDP ratio is without a doubt unsustainable BUT... their Debt are to their own people and Japanese are patriotic to their country
Japs are people who are like "Till death do us part" type.... they are unlikely to give up on their own country.... so no fear of widespread Demand for National debt payback.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
 
 
  • Post #31,186
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  • Jul 23, 2012 1:53am Jul 23, 2012 1:53am
  •  realjumper
  • Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
Quoting bguguen
Disliked
to be honest with you im a bit confused why azumi or BOJ is allowing the YEN to go so strong...
Ignored
Because intervention will incur the wrath of Uncle Sam, and because even Azumi knows that intervention will not work because the Euro crisis is fueling the Yen. hu hu hu
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
 
 
  • Post #31,187
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  • Jul 23, 2012 2:01am Jul 23, 2012 2:01am
  •  fxtyrant
  • Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Member | 10,226 Posts
Quoting realjumper
Disliked
Because intervention will incur the wrath of Uncle Sam, and because even Azumi knows that intervention will not work because the Euro crisis is fueling the Yen. hu hu hu
Ignored
likewise likewise...
good god save the world.... what we need is a volcanic eruption near Europe and Gold minerals get blasted out, then Europe can claim it to save itself....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
 
 
  • Post #31,188
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  • Jul 23, 2012 6:05am Jul 23, 2012 6:05am
  •  torkay77
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Member | 887 Posts
approaching critical demand level again...lots of stops below 77.6 which could be soon taken out.... a clear break below 78.6 fib level should also lead to further downside momentum but i don't expect a new all time low as i think BOJ will try to avoid it
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  • Post #31,189
  • Quote
  • Jul 23, 2012 6:56am Jul 23, 2012 6:56am
  •  Mr.Kruger
  • | Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 359 Posts
another short @ 78.175
 
 
  • Post #31,190
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  • Jul 23, 2012 7:08am Jul 23, 2012 7:08am
  •  Mpt
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 2,582 Posts
Quoting Mr.Kruger
Disliked
another short @ 78.175
Ignored
Yet another superb dicitation. A thoroughly thought provoking analysis, all backed up with an excellent chart. Well done!
 
 
  • Post #31,191
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  • Jul 23, 2012 8:28am Jul 23, 2012 8:28am
  •  infinitus
  • Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts
Quoting bguguen
Disliked
likewise likewise...
good god save the world.... what we need is a volcanic eruption near Europe and Gold minerals get blasted out, then Europe can claim it to save itself....
Ignored
Best I ever read about Euro
 
 
  • Post #31,192
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  • Jul 23, 2012 9:50am Jul 23, 2012 9:50am
  •  RUN-pips-RUN
  • | Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Member | 14 Posts
it seems that the UJ is nearing the end of its rally on the H1. ~78.28 looks to be a swing high with the pair struggling to go higher than the current ~78.20. It does not appear as though it can go much higher than the current swing high. Any other views?
 
 
  • Post #31,193
  • Quote
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:09am Jul 26, 2012 11:09am
  •  CNTrader
  • Joined Jul 2012 | Status: "Winners knowl"!! | 2,171 Posts
Attention starting to be turned to buying this pair.
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Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
 
 
  • Post #31,194
  • Quote
  • Jul 26, 2012 3:49pm Jul 26, 2012 3:49pm
  •  leveraged
  • | Joined May 2011 | Status: Member | 161 Posts
Quoting CNTrader
Disliked
Attention starting to be turned to buying this pair.
Ignored

I actually am long UJ @ 78.22 expecting 77.90-78.00 to hold. There has been very good volume on the 4hr charts to expect a good bounce from here.
 
 
  • Post #31,195
  • Quote
  • Jul 27, 2012 11:02am Jul 27, 2012 11:02am
  •  CNTrader
  • Joined Jul 2012 | Status: "Winners knowl"!! | 2,171 Posts
Quoting CNTrader
Disliked
Attention starting to be turned to buying this pair.
Ignored

Target 1 attained banked 30 pips stops rolled to BE
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Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
 
 
  • Post #31,196
  • Quote
  • Jul 27, 2012 11:26am Jul 27, 2012 11:26am
  •  leveraged
  • | Joined May 2011 | Status: Member | 161 Posts
Quoting CNTrader
Disliked
Target 1 attained banked 30 pips stops rolled to BE
Ignored

How much did you scale back on your 1st target?

I'm letting this one run, expecting to get out of 1st half of trade at around 79.00 letting the 2nd half run.
 
 
  • Post #31,197
  • Quote
  • Jul 27, 2012 12:02pm Jul 27, 2012 12:02pm
  •  torkay77
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Member | 887 Posts
this 4h candle is huge...doesn't look like a fake move, we might see 80.50 in august again
 
 
  • Post #31,198
  • Quote
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:58pm Jul 27, 2012 2:58pm
  •  CNTrader
  • Joined Jul 2012 | Status: "Winners knowl"!! | 2,171 Posts
Quoting leveraged
Disliked
How much did you scale back on your 1st target?

I'm letting this one run, expecting to get out of 1st half of trade at around 79.00 letting the 2nd half run.
Ignored

I took 25% off you will notice I have 4 targets thats how much ill be taking off along the way till i reach T4. After that i will roll stops up as far as she lets me. Looking for a Bat pattern completion at 83.43. A lot can happen between now and then though and Im sure price action will give me more opportunities to add to a winning trade. patiently!
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
 
 
  • Post #31,199
  • Quote
  • Jul 30, 2012 2:26pm Jul 30, 2012 2:26pm
  •  heraclitus
  • | Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Member | 76 Posts
take long @ 78.20, target 78.50 sl 77.95, eur/jpy long also
 
 
  • Post #31,200
  • Quote
  • Jul 30, 2012 6:23pm Jul 30, 2012 6:23pm
  •  Mr.Kruger
  • | Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 359 Posts
why are you boys so bullish?
 
 
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