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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #43,821
  • Jul 22, 2012 9:42pm Jul 22, 2012 9:42pm
Hi guys

I trust everyone had a great weekend.

I am not going to be actively trading tonight while I let the market establish its new range and then give a concise analysis on where I feel it will be going next and the trade reco's that will follow.

Until then I have a EU short on from 1.2269 that is a HOLD
I also have a GU Short on from 1.5698 that is also a HOLD.


Good luck everyone trading the next 24 hour session.

Wulf
  • #43,822
  • Jul 22, 2012 10:30pm Jul 22, 2012 10:30pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
See the line drawn above 82.80? That's a breakout of a range. Falling back into the range with a double top formed would be quite bearish. I think this may be why he chose 82.80.

Imagine if EURUSD fell but all other currencies rose vs USD (kind of like AUDUSD did during late June to present). That would be a huge sign of the continuation of the dollar bear, which has been "correcting" for over a year now. But I am not dollar bearish again until a shift in monetary policy. Such as QE3. Although I think a double top here would be the smart money...
Thanks for that.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #43,823
  • Jul 22, 2012 10:37pm Jul 22, 2012 10:37pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
See the line drawn above 82.80? That's a breakout of a range. Falling back into the range with a double top formed would be quite bearish. I think this may be why he chose 82.80.

Imagine if EURUSD fell but all other currencies rose vs USD (kind of like AUDUSD did during late June to present). That would be a huge sign of the continuation of the dollar bear, which has been "correcting" for over a year now. But I am not dollar bearish again until a shift in monetary policy. Such as QE3. Although I think a double top here would be the smart money...
Thanks for that.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #43,824
  • Jul 22, 2012 11:14pm Jul 22, 2012 11:14pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
See the line drawn above 82.80? That's a breakout of a range. Falling back into the range with a double top formed would be quite bearish. I think this may be why he chose 82.80.

Imagine if EURUSD fell but all other currencies rose vs USD (kind of like AUDUSD did during late June to present). That would be a huge sign of the continuation of the dollar bear, which has been "correcting" for over a year now. But I am not dollar bearish again until a shift in monetary policy. Such as QE3. Although I think a double top here would be the smart...
I think the chart he posted was from other website. The USDX closing on Friday was 83.49.

I was wondering what if EURUSD to hit parity wouldn't that set the USD sky high? Or is it the strong USD that pushes the EUR down or the other way around. What will be the global impact should USD to go that high.
  • #43,825
  • Jul 23, 2012 12:51am Jul 23, 2012 12:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
You mean like this one that was overpowered by the underlying fundamentals?

E/U H4 (Failed Bullish Butterfly, prev failed Bullish Gartley)
Attachment
Quoting Zyggy
In a way yes, they are the kites that will lift euro up, but they usually are known as Gartley patterns.
Make me remember... Tragedy - Bee Gees Song's

Hint... #103261
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #43,826
  • Jul 23, 2012 1:21am Jul 23, 2012 1:21am
Quoting rekon67
My Positions on E/U for W/E 20/7 and 27/7.
What I am thinking is closing my positions from 1.2320 and take profit @ 1.20 level. Not sure if I could take a buy position from here or 1.2020 level?
  • #43,827
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:03am Jul 23, 2012 2:03am
Hi buddy, i hope your ok. I saw your name and thought i would say hello.i caught a few pips shorting e/u and g/u and last night managed a few pips longing g/u (very few)lol. and now i am shorting e/g but lets see what happens. This might be beginning of a long process. Really i should stick to e/u g/u and dow. take care friend and others
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #43,828
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:07am Jul 23, 2012 2:07am
actually forget e/g i made a mistake lol.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #43,829
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:09am Jul 23, 2012 2:09am
Good morning everyone.

Now that we have reached my long awaited 1.2090 target, I have decided to take a bit of a break. I have a couple of projects that need my attention and since I expect a bit of a lull in the markets until next week's risk events, I will not be posting as actively as prior weeks.

I will still be around and occasionally commenting and/or posting my analysis.

My current E/U shorts and U/CAD longs are stil in place and overall I am well into the green. I expect it to stay that way for the rest of the week (barring any miracles) and probably look to take some more profits off the table near the end of the week or early next week. I still plan to add fresh E/U shorts on any new rallies.

Trade safe all.

E/U Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-d1.gif Size: 56 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,830
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:10am Jul 23, 2012 2:10am
Quoting billytt
Hi buddy, i hope your ok. I saw your name and thought i would say hello.i caught a few pips shorting e/u and g/u and last night managed a few pips longing g/u (very few)lol. and now i am shorting e/g but lets see what happens. This might be beginning of a long process. Really i should stick to e/u g/u and dow. take care friend and others
Hi Bill ..good morning =)
Attached Image
  • #43,831
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:19am Jul 23, 2012 2:19am
Spanish 10yr bonds over 7.5%
  • #43,832
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:25am Jul 23, 2012 2:25am
Here is this week's "Things that make you go Hmmm"

Enjoy

.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Hmmm Jul 22 2012.pdf   2.5 MB | 297 downloads
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,833
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:56am Jul 23, 2012 2:56am
Here's a quick projection.

As I stated in a post last night, I believe price is heading to 1.2000/20 area where I would expect a bounce (albeit a weak one)

The rationale is that the area has a confluence of support as follows:
1. The falling channel (FC-3) support.
2. 161.8% fibo of the 1.2246-1.2287 move up
3. 1.2000 psychological (and probably option) barrier.

From there we will most likely get a bounce back up to the underside of the falling trend line (FTL-1) support turned resistance and that is where I would re-enter a nice short position for the next leg down. Currently FTL-1 is priced at 1.2136 but will be at 1.2120 by the end of the week. If FTL-1 fails to hold price as resistance, then we will most likely see an attempt to close the weekend gap at 1.2160 and possibly re-test the 123.6% fibo at 1.2180

Of course this is strictly technical. We may in fact test 1.2160/80 today during NY, but the probabilities are more biased towards a sustained drop towards 1.2000

E/U H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h4.gif Size: 58 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,834
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:58am Jul 23, 2012 2:58am
!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 11 KB
  • #43,835
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:02am Jul 23, 2012 3:02am
Quoting rekon67
!
Casper the ghost and his friends

http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__.../7f/Casper.gif
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,836
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:08am Jul 23, 2012 3:08am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
... I have not done the calculation to the pip yet, but the 50 fib of EURUSDs life time is very close. Not sure if we have passed it yet or not. Since I don't trust the accuracy of the fibo lines (alltime low to alltime high) on a monthly chart, I'm going to take the all time low, add to the all time high, and divide by 2. Anyone already done this to save me some time? .
2121. Thats why I call it mumbo jumbo. It is somwhere here. Lurking behind the corner.
I took data from daily close from ecb:
http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eu...ph-usd.en.html

I also saw some guys at RUT doing simmilar calculations, but you can count it many ways. Every OTC market has a bit different price. It is somwhere here, hidden, and it is comming for you . As with all these fibo crystall ball, you need to use very very thick lines to draw support.

And welcome to Euranalysis, I hope you will enjoy your stay.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,837
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:16am Jul 23, 2012 3:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
Casper the ghost and his friends
:}
Attached Image
  • #43,838
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:21am Jul 23, 2012 3:21am
But unsure what to do now

Been hanging on for a retrace

Everybody talking 11800 etc

What pair would you hedge against EUR/US

I have longs in

Still reckon it can't go down for ever
  • #43,839
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:27am Jul 23, 2012 3:27am
Quoting New Pip
Spanish 10yr bonds over 7.5%
Y, poor guys. I hope they will somehow come out of this mess.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND/chart
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,840
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:32am Jul 23, 2012 3:32am
Quoting eliteincome
But unsure what to do now

Been hanging on for a retrace

Everybody talking 11800 etc

What pair would you hedge against EUR/US

I have longs in

Still reckon it can't go down for ever
Of course it cannot go on forever, but 1.2000/20 is a very clear and achievable target area before we see a bounce.

Best pair to hedge against E/U longs has traditionally been A/U shorts. However, since A/U has been taking on a limited role of safe haven status, I'm not sure that's a very good idea anymore. The Euro is pretty well a lone duck now... actually more like an ugly duckling.

http://susanzheng.files.wordpress.co...only-large.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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