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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #43,801
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:57pm Jul 22, 2012 4:57pm
PT, do you know when do the Spaniards reroll next short term bonds?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,802
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:59pm Jul 22, 2012 4:59pm
Quoting PipTrapper
After
Tze Zeuro wird be available zoon.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,803
  • Edited 5:30pm Jul 22, 2012 5:05pm | Edited 5:30pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
PT, do you know when do the Spaniards reroll next short term bonds?

T
3 & 6 month bills will be auctioned on 24th July

2012 Calendar of Spanish Bond Auctions: http://www.tesoro.es/doc/EN/home/pub...sintrasera.pdf
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,804
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:10pm Jul 22, 2012 5:10pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Offers are "Sell Limit orders"
Bids are "Buy Limit orders"
Stops above the price are "Buys" or "Sell stop losses"
Stops below the price are "Sells" or "Buy stop losses"
7han35 PT
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #43,805
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:10pm Jul 22, 2012 5:10pm
Quoting PipTrapper
3 & 6 month bills will be auctioned on 27th July

http://www.tesoro.es/EN/subastas/cal...trasWeb%20.asp

they have 3-6 month bills? Wow.

You can speak spanish? Great link I would never evenr find this, thx.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,806
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:13pm Jul 22, 2012 5:13pm
Quoting Pip_Warrior
7han35 PT
w3lc0m3
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,807
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:17pm Jul 22, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
they have 3-6 month bills? Wow.

You can speak spanish? Great link I would never evenr find this, thx.
No, but my Google Chrome browser has a built in Google translator
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,808
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:18pm Jul 22, 2012 5:18pm
Man the first one seems clear, but this?

http://www.tesoro.es/EN/subastas/calendario_bonos.asp

I dont see expiration of the bonds. I will try google translator, but there is something coming on 23.7. Thats today.

Edit: n1 man

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,809
  • Edited 5:31pm Jul 22, 2012 5:20pm | Edited 5:31pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Man the first one seems clear, but this?

http://www.tesoro.es/EN/subastas/calendario_bonos.asp

I dont see expiration of the bonds. I will try google translator, but there is something coming on 23.7. Thats today.

Edit: n1 man

T
23/7 is the payment date of the 18/7 auction

ADD: Here is a better link >> http://www.tesoro.es/doc/EN/home/pub...sintrasera.pdf
Apparently the next one is on the 24th... Tomorrow 3 & 6 month
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,810
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:23pm Jul 22, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting PipTrapper
23/7 is the payment date of the 18/7 auction
Say liquidity squeeze? Ah I wish I had bloomberg with all the wonderfull data. I think I am going to tryout that chrome. This seems very handy.

edit: Ah, I get it. They are going to receive money for bonds they already sold on 18th. So squeeze is out of game, bad luck .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,811
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:34pm Jul 22, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting PipTrapper
A bankruptcy in Greece is pretty much already priced in. Most economists expect it to happen and I am also convinced it will.

Anyway, it's not Greece we should be worried about, but rather Spain and Italy.
Don't think we've really scratched the surface with Italy yet....plenty of fun & games there over the next month or so - let's wait & see what Italian 10 yr bond yields show in the next 1-2 weeks :-)

Happy hunting
  • #43,812
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:46pm Jul 22, 2012 5:46pm
Ok, so if I get it right, there is an auction of 3-6 months bonds tomorrow. I didnt know someone is actually issuing such a short term obligations, but so be it. Now the question is, how much do they need to raise? It seems they are currently rerolling all the short term debts every month. But now, market will be watching. And so will I.

Edit: Btw, that callendar is great.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,813
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:59pm Jul 22, 2012 5:59pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok, so if I get it right, there is an auction of 3-6 months bonds tomorrow. I didnt know someone is actually issuing such a short term obligations, but so be it. Now the question is, how much do they need to raise? It seems they are currently rerolling all the short term debts every month. But now, market will be watching. And so will I.

Edit: Btw, that callendar is great.
Tomorrow = Tuesday

As for 3 & 6 month debt, most countries issue them. In the US they are called T-Bills (as in Treasury Bills). Even Greece has them.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,814
  • Jul 22, 2012 6:03pm Jul 22, 2012 6:03pm
Okay. All my Euro short positions are happily and safely well into the green and I don't think that's going to change between now and the morning, so I'm off to bed. See you at London open.

http://th08.deviantart.net/fs4/PRE/i...er_Simpson.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,815
  • Jul 22, 2012 6:06pm Jul 22, 2012 6:06pm
That gap is just. Hmmm. Big. 2121 combo is kinda mumbo jumbo, the point is, we are in a zone of break somwhere here . Heavy heavy zone. I dont expect it to be breachend on first attempt and still see at least some try to retest fridays close or 2203. But as I keep on repeating. Panic levels.

edit: and as I want to see fresh panic on London open. Zzzzzz...

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,816
  • Jul 22, 2012 6:19pm Jul 22, 2012 6:19pm
Hello all. I am new to ForexFactory and decided to say hello and post and discuss my views as well as discuss others views.

We just bounced of the 138.2 extension (to the pip) of 2287 to 2745 (June correction). We also have quite a bit of support coming into play below these levels as well. Such as the weekly bear channel from May 4th highs near 1.50 last year. This comes into play near 1.1970. I have not done the calculation to the pip yet, but the 50 fib of EURUSDs life time is very close. Not sure if we have passed it yet or not. Since I don't trust the accuracy of the fibo lines (alltime low to alltime high) on a monthly chart, I'm going to take the all time low, add to the all time high, and divide by 2. Anyone already done this to save me some time?

I will post multiple charts later with different TFs, to see if I am on the same page with you all.

As for now, I'm going to enjoy this nice summer weather.

Can't wait to meet you all and good luck.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #43,817
  • Jul 22, 2012 7:12pm Jul 22, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Hello all. I am new to ForexFactory and decided to say hello and post and discuss my views as well as discuss others views.

We just bounced of the 138.2 extension (to the pip) of 2287 to 2745 (June correction). We also have quite a bit of support coming into play below these levels as well. Such as the weekly bear channel from May 4th highs near 1.50 last year. This comes into play near 1.1970. I have not done the calculation to the pip yet, but the 50 fib of EURUSDs life time is very close. Not sure if we have passed it yet or not. Since I don't...
let me welcome u ragtoriches.i think pt went off to sleep so may i suggest go though page 1 of this thread for rules and purpose of this thread
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #43,818
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:32pm Jul 22, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sf...d_momentum.gif

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sf...d_momentum.gif
Is there something about the candles at 82.80 that has you choosing that level? Thanks.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #43,819
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:57pm Jul 22, 2012 8:57pm
Quoting traider
Is there something about the candles at 82.80 that has you choosing that level? Thanks.
See the line drawn above 82.80? That's a breakout of a range. Falling back into the range with a double top formed would be quite bearish. I think this may be why he chose 82.80.

Imagine if EURUSD fell but all other currencies rose vs USD (kind of like AUDUSD did during late June to present). That would be a huge sign of the continuation of the dollar bear, which has been "correcting" for over a year now. But I am not dollar bearish again until a shift in monetary policy. Such as QE3. Although I think a double top here would be the smart money front running the FED and getting the best entry for QE3 (kind of like in June when QE3 was a very small possibility).

IMO. We will see a time when EURUSD and USD fall in tandem intraday because all currencies besides euro sky rocket vs USD (like AUDUSD). Or if not that, we will see very small Euro gains next to massive gains for stronger currencies vs USD.

Essentially what I am trying to say is, when the dollar bear finally continues, Euro won't be the preferred long by any means. What this means is that Euros will FLOCK to gold like never before. To see another 1.50 or even 1.40 even from QE or LTRO... just doesn't seem possible from a fundamental perspective (although of course anything is). Even from a technical perspective however, the monthly bear channel comes into play at 1.43 currently. It seems more likely to achieve a significant rally from QE3 in Euro, we would have to hit the monthly bear trend at 1.06-1.07.

Then we would probably go back to retest 1.185 from QE3, and never break above it.

Just my opinion! EURAUD will see parity one day before the bear trend from 2008 finally ends (if it ever does!)

Discuss!
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #43,820
  • Jul 22, 2012 9:25pm Jul 22, 2012 9:25pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
See the line drawn above 82.80? That's a breakout of a range. Falling back into the range with a double top formed would be quite bearish. I think this may be why he chose 82.80.

Imagine if EURUSD fell but all other currencies rose vs USD (kind of like AUDUSD did during late June to present). That would be a huge sign of the continuation of the dollar bear, which has been "correcting" for over a year now. But I am not dollar bearish again until a shift in monetary policy. Such as QE3. Although I think a double top here would be the smart...
You are very welcome here. I am a fundamental forex trader using technicals for entry and exit.

Thanks for your input on the chart that I posted earlier today.

I look forward to your contributions on the best forex thread in Forex Factory.

Our Leader PipTrapper is resting now and I welcome you on his behalf.
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