AUD/USD | Page 2542 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #50,821
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:25am Jul 20, 2012 8:25am
Quoting jplazard
I know what your saying you could lose the premium and still have open losses why not just get out.. The problem on Friday's especially volume is lower than normal on ICE and I still believe that we trade back to 83.15-20 level where I will start off loading my shorts to reduce risk into the weekend. This position was built in anticipation for an 82 level and I am willing to risk a premium if I can get a payout to offset my open losses.

People normally buy/sell the same pair to hedge at times I like the various options strategies offered because...
No perfectly fine Man and a plan on a mission like it should be. No matter if it works out or not.


That's why i wanted you to post your hedge so that people can see what a real hedge looks like not the same currency / pay double comm/spread for _no use at all_ kind of things people do
  • #50,822
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:29am Jul 20, 2012 8:29am
Quoting jplazard
Sure on my exposure at the moment on Dollar future I am short 45contracts which you can see the specs on contract here https://www.theice.com/productguide/...B4C?specId=194
Now per tick it’s $5*45= $225/tick




I have averaged lower as the market went my way since last Friday and now I have a basis of 83.217. So in order to hedge a currency position most corporate or non commercials will call up a separate bank and ask to set up which is called a ‘Double No touch option’...
I admire traders like you, you remind me on Andy, so technical and full of numbers that make me dizzy.
I always ask him why he doesn't keep it simple and neat, but that's the way he trades... Stocks and options only tho, way out of my area these days, I prefer it with 4 charts on 2 screens max, the less numbers the better...

Plenty of instruments to fit on those two screens tho.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #50,823
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:35am Jul 20, 2012 8:35am
Quoting stulic
I admire traders like you, you remind me on Andy, so technical and full of numbers that make me dizzy.
I always ask him why he doesn't keep it simple and neat, but that's the way he trades... Stocks and options only tho, way out of my area these days, I prefer it with 4 charts on 2 screens max, the less numbers the better...

Plenty of instruments to fit on those two screens tho.
Daddy Bear is suspended from posting at the moment
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #50,824
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:43am Jul 20, 2012 8:43am
Quoting jplazard
lol your telling me I am already looking at Options to cancel out some of the risk untill dollar comes back down to the 83.15 level. After putting that post up It took off lol.. Down 17K at the moment.
I knw a lot of people believe in naked charts..but I've noticed I am more careful when I have macd on a H4 chart..its really useful..may not always work,but it has more wins than not. Just my 2cents.
It is possible to make large sums trading, small losses, large wins
  • #50,825
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:46am Jul 20, 2012 8:46am
Stulic,

Lol I Am with you on this one I initially wanted to keep this position light until we closed and traded around 82.80 but yesterday I ended up fighting with other bears to suppress the price ceiling trading in and out at 83.20 and ended up with -45C. I agree though simplicity is the key to trading and not over complicating things. I will be near a quiet lake this weekend really thinking about the position and ask my self does this position make sense funemental/Technical wise the same as it did when you put this on? If I think not and believe the EUROPE CHINA data coming out Monday/Tuesday will take markets down/Safe havens back up I will be offloading and take the loss. then forget it ever happened and focus on the AUD short story again.
  • #50,826
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:50am Jul 20, 2012 8:50am
Quoting jplazard
Stulic,

Lol I Am with you on this one I initially wanted to keep this position light until we closed and traded around 82.80 but yesterday I ended up fighting with other bears to suppress the price ceiling trading in and out at 83.20 and ended up with -45C. I agree though simplicity is the key to trading and not over complicating things. I will be near a quiet lake this weekend really thinking about the position and ask my self does this position make sense funemental/Technical wise the same as it did when you put this on? If I think not and...
That's the thing, you're not the only one, obviously things that are going through your head are already being priced in. Not easy to get ahead of the market as you know. You might miss the train even on a Friday.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #50,827
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:57am Jul 20, 2012 8:57am
Omadivi

I hear what you’re saying I have been looking at Daily and H4 and never really liked these last couple days wicks. Their so thin on open and close and I never like this kind of pattern because it is a case of accumulation at the lower range only to get a critical level (83) and go in with major size causing coattail effect and shorts covering.


This week will probably go down as one of the bigger mistakes I made when judging the markets. We had a massive run these last couple and to think people believed this is the bull market we were waiting for is crazy. I spoke to guys I used to work with that work at new banks and they are telling me their weekend exposure is down so much since 08 ‘Any profit we can grab without having to hold for more than a weekend we will take it and get out’ is what one friend said.
  • #50,828
  • Jul 20, 2012 9:02am Jul 20, 2012 9:02am
Right normally When I trade it's two ideas one is technical swing play say (40/50ticks) everyday then there is a position build that takes a few days to a week to complete where the majority of gains are made. I will say I made an error this week on Yesterdays close just looking at the chart this looks like gradual buying then we come in and hit the market hard at 83.. My short bias clouded the PA and I can only gradually get out of my shorts for a loss and a lesson which is 'when in doubt cut in half'
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-20-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 128 KB
  • #50,829
  • Jul 20, 2012 9:05am Jul 20, 2012 9:05am
Hit my short TP, I didnt trust myself enough to believe it'd fall further but oh well, profit is profit.

entry: 1.04375
TP: 1.03830

52 pips

Will wait til next week before going long again
  • #50,830
  • Jul 20, 2012 9:07am Jul 20, 2012 9:07am
Quoting jplazard
Sure on my exposure at the moment on Dollar future I am short 45contracts which you can see the specs on contract here https://www.theice.com/productguide/...B4C?specId=194
Now per tick it’s $5*45= $225/tick




I have averaged lower as the market went my way since last Friday and now I have a basis of 83.217. So in order to hedge a currency position most corporate or non commercials will call up a separate bank and ask to set up which is called a ‘Double No touch option’...
Hey jplazard, a very interesting explanation..the dollar index hit 83.61..how does that affect you?..I also believe we will soon see a major dollar drop,with qe rumors and all..but I dnt think it gona happen just yet..
It is possible to make large sums trading, small losses, large wins
  • #50,831
  • Jul 20, 2012 9:07am Jul 20, 2012 9:07am
Have a great weekend all I am going to be on the phone most of the day will see you guys Sunday opening.
  • #50,832
  • Jul 20, 2012 9:11am Jul 20, 2012 9:11am
Quoting HotBiscuits
Hit my short TP, I didnt trust myself enough to believe it'd fall further but oh well, profit is profit.

entry: 1.04375
TP: 1.03830

52 pips

Will wait til next week before going long again
congrats. shut off the screen, go enjoy . i have a few as well.
  • #50,833
  • Jul 20, 2012 9:40am Jul 20, 2012 9:40am
Quoting KillerWhale
I don't see reversal but if trend line channel is respected we could see a big pull-back in the up trend.
And that pull -back could bring us back next week more than 200 pips down.

It all depend on what happens in the short rest of the week.

See the red trend channel and decide for yourself.
Well, so far I was right was my chart that told us to go short
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #50,834
  • Jul 20, 2012 9:46am Jul 20, 2012 9:46am
Quoting CNTrader
Aud/Usd tends to gravitate to the 707 and 1414 retrace and extensions. If we do see that then there is good ratio confluence there in the daily chart at 0480ish zone. However if today is the day for a decent retrace then 0350-0360 zone very do-able and 0277 possible as well. If that were to happen it would be quite funny to me as the MM's will have wiped away the last 2 days and taken out the breakout traders from the 0250-0280 area who are most likely at BE with stops. If the structure in that area holds then we could see a move to the 0580 to...
0360 target hit banked some profit and rolled stops to BE on remaining. Looking for 0277 area next.
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #50,835
  • Jul 20, 2012 9:49am Jul 20, 2012 9:49am
Quoting KillerWhale
Well, so far I was right was my chart that told us to go short
Naaaah pretty sure it wasn't your chart that did this

Either way, I'm turning my attention to GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD who might be trying to find a bottom soon, it might need a fundamental catalyst to turn them around but then you're longing a gold mine...
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #50,836
  • Jul 20, 2012 9:54am Jul 20, 2012 9:54am
Quoting CNTrader
0360 target hit banked some profit and rolled stops to BE on remaining. Looking for 0277 area next.
I'm with you on that. Currently looking for 0330 for some profit.
  • #50,837
  • Jul 20, 2012 10:01am Jul 20, 2012 10:01am
Quoting stulic
Naaaah pretty sure it wasn't your chart that did this

Either way, I'm turning my attention to GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD who might be trying to find a bottom soon, it might need a fundamental catalyst to turn them around but then you're longing a gold mine...

i am also eying on GBP/AUD , swap is the killer , what level your eying ? @ 30 or 12/00


Edit :

Is AU going to for 420 ?
Mohan
  • #50,838
  • Jul 20, 2012 10:11am Jul 20, 2012 10:11am
Little buy from H4 decision point
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: acegazette au.jpg Size: 85 KB
  • #50,839
  • Jul 20, 2012 10:16am Jul 20, 2012 10:16am
Quoting mohan76
i am also eying on GBP/AUD , swap is the killer , what level your eying ? @ 30 or 12/00


Edit :

Is AU going to for 420 ?
Swap doesn't matter once you're in from near the bottom, unless price keeps ranging for weeks then all you've got is paying swap.

If you look at the monthly or weekly you'll see this area around and below 1.50 fought before in September and October last year.
I'd like to start buying right now and keep adding with stops below 4840. Small posies of course one at the time.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #50,840
  • Jul 20, 2012 10:22am Jul 20, 2012 10:22am
Looks like it's gonna make a new low tonight too, inside demand where it bounced up from yesterday.

GBP/AUD I mean, looks like heading towards 5020 again
Don't get mad, get even!
44 traders viewing now