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AUD/USD

  • #50,801
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:28am Jul 20, 2012 6:28am
Quoting stulic
It's done when it's done, the Aussie is just behaving as it should, stubborn and resilient, we saw it 2 years ago from 0.80 to 1.11, those 13,000 pips wiped a lot of accounts out. Before it even hit parity.

Don't try picking the absolute top on this one, you might get burned is the lesson.
Thanks...
  • #50,802
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:30am Jul 20, 2012 6:30am
Well said, I still remember the chorus of serial margin callers, shouting China will fall soon and it will drag Aussie with her. And look ... the AUD is still high and those account balances are still lower than a sea snake's bellybutton

AUD is in an uptrend, and that's it.
Quoting stulic
we saw it 2 years ago from 0.80 to 1.11, those 13,000 pips wiped a lot of accounts out. Before it even hit parity.

Don't try picking the absolute top on this one, you might get burned is the lesson.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #50,803
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:30am Jul 20, 2012 6:30am
Sorry it's around 3000 pips
5000 pips since LB collapse.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #50,804
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:35am Jul 20, 2012 6:35am
1.0400 is being challenged but it's defended strongly still, seeing equities in Europe and US futures down, I can't see 1.04 holding for much longer, gold is shedding heavily too...
We'll see what NY brings.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #50,805
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:38am Jul 20, 2012 6:38am
Hello everyone,

Trading yesterday was quiet to say the least. I foolishly thought the dollar was going to blow through 83 without a hitch and all risk would take off but I failed to factor in one aspect of this week. That we have had an amazing run in AU /ES and several commodities. As the weekend approaches on moves like this week people don't like to put in added positions and in fact like to lock in gains with the 'new marketplace'. When this happens and people offload their contracts and go back into cash first the market ebbs down but more importantly Dollar rises.

I have a target of 82.25 for technical reasons and I am a little concerned with three major things going into next week that would put a floor in at this level and cause Index futures, currencies, commodities to come back into lower ranges

1. Sunday/Monday/Tuesday their is a wall of reports coming out from China and Europe. And I am not certain this train or risk rally can blow through all those walls. Last week I was the biggest bear around on AUD because of Chinese numbers but they came in line. I found out later that the numbers were very questionable but I digress.

2. Headline Risk. More news items are making the rounds these last two days out of Europe and other nations,spreads are not coming down on the 10yr but have hit yet another record a few hours ago, there is talk now of a group working within Germany on how to control an orderly exit from euro and Other small periphery countries are starting to make their voices heard on shared liability and the urgency on immediate financing.

3. Technically: We have had an amazing run so far on commodities top performing currencies since the May31 bottom are JPY and AUD DX close behind. I have a target of /es 1385 and dollar lower but the mentality can turn on a dime as you all have seen like that

So I am (still) short the Dollar at this level because we are just fighting the 83 tape and of course there is going to be a war at these levels so i wont be fazed my false spikes 20up20down, If however we see closing above 83.55 then the trade is off and I failed to recognize that this was in fact a breather for the yearly trend dollar is experiencing and not a small correction

I am looking at AUD/USD short next week if we break the Confluence range just we just entered into
  • #50,806
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:41am Jul 20, 2012 6:41am
Euro another nose dive, fresh new low EUR/AUD 1.1725.

I closed all my shorts but I still think this one is heading towards 1.1550...
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #50,807
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:51am Jul 20, 2012 6:51am
Quoting jplazard
Hello everyone,

Trading yesterday was quiet to say the least. I foolishly thought the dollar was going to blow through 83 without a hitch and all risk would take off but I failed to factor in one aspect of this week. That we have had an amazing run in AU /ES and several commodities. As the weekend approaches on moves like this week people don't like to put in added positions and in fact like to lock in gains with the 'new marketplace'. When this happens and people offload their contracts and go back into cash first the market ebbs down...
You might wanna get ready for it tonight?

Nice risk offload before WS.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #50,808
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:57am Jul 20, 2012 6:57am
lol your telling me I am already looking at Options to cancel out some of the risk untill dollar comes back down to the 83.15 level. After putting that post up It took off lol.. Down 17K at the moment.
  • #50,809
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:59am Jul 20, 2012 6:59am
83.44 was the close on 7/13 we will if it rest at these levels.
  • #50,810
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:59am Jul 20, 2012 6:59am
Quoting stulic
Euro another nose dive, fresh new low EUR/AUD 1.1725.

I closed all my shorts but I still think this one is heading towards 1.1550...
You sell 1.1550 timeframe?
  • #50,811
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:01am Jul 20, 2012 7:01am
Quoting jplazard
lol your telling me I am already looking at Options to cancel out some of the risk untill dollar comes back down to the 83.15 level. After putting that post up It took off lol.. Down 17K at the moment.


Enlighten us on your option hedges from time to time. Something for a change
  • #50,812
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:03am Jul 20, 2012 7:03am
Quoting jplazard
lol your telling me I am already looking at Options to cancel out some of the risk untill dollar comes back down to the 83.15 level. After putting that post up It took off lol.. Down 17K at the moment.
Nope, I was saying there was some nice risky assets offload before WS happening then, hence the big drop or a spike in your DX
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #50,813
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:05am Jul 20, 2012 7:05am
Quoting Resuisse
You sell 1.1550 timeframe?
Not sure what you mean but I meant to say EUR/AUD, sorry bout that. Yeah I think that cross is heading towards 1.1550
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #50,814
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:07am Jul 20, 2012 7:07am
Quoting stulic
Not sure what you mean but I meant to say EUR/AUD, sorry bout that. Yeah I think that cross is heading towards 1.1550
Thanks... I am selling this pair too...
  • #50,815
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:11am Jul 20, 2012 7:11am
Quoting Resuisse
Thanks... I am selling this pair too...
I closed all my shorts again, I was selling since 1.4800, even with minilots would've been laughing now if held alive, but that's how it works.
I keep scalping pullbacks after every new historic low because they're the most certain pattern one can scalp, difficulty is judging by how much it's going to make a new low by.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #50,816
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:13am Jul 20, 2012 8:13am
In H8, it could be the idea. I think that it fits with the H4 chart posted by killerwhale, earlier. But I'm worst than worst in trading this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H8 AUD.gif Size: 12 KB
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #50,817
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:13am Jul 20, 2012 8:13am
Sure on my exposure at the moment on Dollar future I am short 45contracts which you can see the specs on contract here https://www.theice.com/productguide/...B4C?specId=194
Now per tick it’s $5*45= $225/tick




I have averaged lower as the market went my way since last Friday and now I have a basis of 83.217. So in order to hedge a currency position most corporate or non commercials will call up a separate bank and ask to set up which is called a ‘Double No touch option’ or DNT. My former career before going full time I worked a lot with Lloyd’s or HSBC desk and they are always willing to take on the risk if the option terms are attractive to them. Normally they deal with 10MM minimum for these types of options and they payout is generally 4:1 or 5:1 under longer term contracts but if it is a short option they don’t mind taking on the short term Vol risk and it does not hurt to know former colleagues either.




Right now I am down about $18,800 So I call them up and set up a DNT where I tell them in this case I want to initiate a barrier at 82.70 and 83.80, Expiration EOD, I will put up a premium of 65k for a payout of 24k (best they can do at the volume right now). Here is where the hedge comes in to offset most of the risk to the upside on dollar today.

Dollar level potential today and losses unrealized W/ 45contracts:
8345: $21,150 received would reduce +2850
8360: $27,900 premium received would reduce to -3900
8380: $36,900 premium received would reduce to -12,900




I think the market will not break 83 today and I am willing to bet that we don’t break 83.65 but we will see. If we touch either of these barriers I lose my premium and the exposure is wide open again. I would be happy To trade right at the current range or lower because my losses are still low 18,800 and if we close near this level I will reduced the loss to an Unrealized PnL of $5,200
  • #50,818
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:13am Jul 20, 2012 8:13am
DaddyBear, the greatest fool we have in Aud trading.
He now has his own cartoon Aud thread and blocks everyone with a decent opinion.
I'm sure he will be a great success in trading if he thinks that trading is all about cartoons.
But don't question him in his thread, you will be blocked immediately.


WAY TO GO
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #50,819
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:18am Jul 20, 2012 8:18am
Thanks


Quoting jplazard
Sure on my exposure at the moment on Dollar future I am short 45contracts which you can see the specs on contract here https://www.theice.com/productguide/...B4C?specId=194
Now per tick it’s $5*45= $225/tick




I have averaged lower as the market went my way since last Friday and now I have a basis of 83.217. So in order to hedge a currency position most corporate or non commercials will call up a separate bank and ask to set up which is called a ‘Double No touch option’ or DNT....
  • #50,820
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:19am Jul 20, 2012 8:19am
I know what your saying you could lose the premium and still have open losses why not just get out.. The problem on Friday's especially volume is lower than normal on ICE and I still believe that we trade back to 83.15-20 level where I will start off loading my shorts to reduce risk into the weekend. This position was built in anticipation for an 82 level and I am willing to risk a premium if I can get a payout to offset my open losses.

People normally buy/sell the same pair to hedge at times I like the various options strategies offered because they allow for different protection or reduction in delta risk
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