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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #43,621
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:47am Jul 20, 2012 7:47am
You know I cant draw trendlines, but this m5 is going to go puff soon.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,622
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:52am Jul 20, 2012 7:52am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
What was the rule with not selling lows again? Cant remember it. Ah, it was "Dont sell lows" in every trading book. But what if the low is in fact middle?

T
Tom, be extra careful .... if PA maintained the daily range it might make correction during NY afternoon . Somebody take advantages of thin market and low volume ...... pse correct me if I'm wrong.


ADD : IMO .... from past observations.
  • #43,623
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:52am Jul 20, 2012 7:52am
Cmon, screw stop hunt big boys. 2162 low is waiting for test.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,624
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:53am Jul 20, 2012 7:53am
Quoting AlwaysLost
Tom, be extra careful ...
Berserk mode is on mate. I cant be carefull. I just need balls and coffee.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,625
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:53am Jul 20, 2012 7:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
For those of you who are long the U/CAD like me (or thinking about it), the Canadian CPI figure just came out at -0.4% Way below expectations of -0.1

WooHoo. Up up and away


Reprint from a previous post...

[indent][i]I'm still bullish medium to long term on U/CAD

The BOC today stated that they don't expect to raise rates until 2014. That's too far off into the future to be concerned about right now.

Also...
1. Toronto has a housing bubble which is about to burst = CAD negative
2. A strong CAD is hurting the Canadian...
and the cadjpy has just broken the rising wedge
  • #43,626
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:56am Jul 20, 2012 7:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
For those of you who are long the U/CAD like me (or thinking about it), the Canadian CPI figure just came out at -0.4% Way below expectations of -0.1

WooHoo. Up up and away


Reprint from a previous post...
[indent][i]I'm still bullish medium to long term on U/CAD

The BOC today stated that they don't expect to raise rates until 2014. That's too far off into the future to be concerned about right now.

Also...
1. Toronto has a housing bubble which is about to burst = CAD negative
2. A strong CAD is hurting the Canadian manufacturing...
Thanx for the reply with this! Had to wait for a good barrier to enter long. God i wish i had your knowledge.. One day i will, just keep reading and taking notes!!
  • #43,627
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:58am Jul 20, 2012 7:58am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Berserk mode is on mate. I cant be carefull. I just need balls and coffee.
And boy do I need some this morning!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #43,628
  • Jul 20, 2012 7:59am Jul 20, 2012 7:59am
For christ sake, dont give me doji on h1. gimme pinbar.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,629
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:01am Jul 20, 2012 8:01am
Quoting mka_78
and the cadjpy has just broken the rising wedge
Yep

CAD/JPY Daily
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,630
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:02am Jul 20, 2012 8:02am
Doji after "almostmarubozu". Hmm. Seems it wont be that easy. Well, it never is.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,631
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:04am Jul 20, 2012 8:04am
Quoting hunter101
Thanx for the reply with this! Had to wait for a good barrier to enter long. God i wish i had your knowledge.. One day i will, just keep reading and taking notes!!
Your wait was worth it by the looks of it. Now we just need to exercise patience. This pair has never been much of a rocket... more like a hot air balloon.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,632
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:04am Jul 20, 2012 8:04am
Hey guys

Sorry I havent been around to post up my daily analysis. Been a bit busy with my day job and other responsibilities.

Lookin back over yesterday

DOW – up 34.66 points to close at 12,943.36
Oil – up $2.79 to close at $92.66 – next level of support is $90.17
Gold – up $9.60 to close at $1,580.40 – Next level of support at $1,574
Dollar index 82.888 – 52 week range is Low: 73.421 – High: 83.829


EUR/USD – current 1.2190 – Pair moved above 1.2300 to High of 1.2324 and reversed (for 4th time) again dropping to 1.2229

Last 6 sessions the EU has closed -11, +23, +3, +40, -37 pips and -9 – High last 3 sessions is 1.2306, 1.2316 and 1.2324 (still playing range of 2324 to 2187)
Need to close below 1.2200 for next move to 1.2019/1.2000 area as we stalled 4 times and reversed after breaking 1.2200 — Lowest close is 1.2202.

The Labor Department said applications for unemployment benefits rose by 34,000 to 386,000, the biggest jump since April 2011.


Fundamentally nothing has seriously changed. I layered in a few E/U shorts at the 1.2269 watching for a push to close sub 1.2200. (*note: I have taken partial profit at the 1.2187 channel bottom) The rest of the trade is a HOLD. European markets are trading firmly in risk off mode and Euro Bond yields are firmly in Bailout territory.


Techincally the 1.2329 Key resistance has hed very firmly on several tests. Downtrend remains firmly intact despite the smallish daily ranges due to thin volume.



I am also currently SHORT G/U from the Weekly channel number of 1.5695 and will HOLD this as a swing trade targeting the 1.5400 area. Stops are at 1.5770.




take care guys Ill be back next week to participate more in the thread.



Decent week overall.


Good luck everyone


Wulf
  • #43,633
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:05am Jul 20, 2012 8:05am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Doji after "almostmarubozu". Hmm. Seems it wont be that easy. Well, it never is.
You spoke too soon. Down she goes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,634
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:05am Jul 20, 2012 8:05am
Wooooo. Heheheheee. Muachachachachaa.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,635
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:06am Jul 20, 2012 8:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
You spoke too soon. Down she goes.
4,1:1
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #43,636
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:07am Jul 20, 2012 8:07am
Quoting Wulfgar
Hey guys

Sorry I havent been around to post up my daily analysis. Been a bit busy with my day job and other responsibilities.

Lookin back over yesterday

DOW – up 34.66 points to close at 12,943.36
Oil – up $2.79 to close at $92.66 – next level of support is $90.17
Gold – up $9.60 to close at $1,580.40 – Next level of support at $1,574
Dollar index 82.888 – 52 week range is Low: 73.421 – High: 83.829


EUR/USD – current 1.2190 – Pair moved above 1.2300 to High of 1.2324 and reversed (for 4th time) again dropping to 1.2229

Last...
Thanks for the update Wulf. Always appreciated. Many green pips to you my friend
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,637
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:08am Jul 20, 2012 8:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
Your wait was worth it by the looks of it. Now we just need to exercise patience. This pair has never been much of a rocket... more like a hot air balloon.
Aww the P word.. Yea, still working on that heh. Exited my EU short (entered at .2270) at .2235. Wish i kept it, but the ranged was killing me softly. Now the UCad, its not as translucent as EU, plan to keep this sucker for a little longer
  • #43,638
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:09am Jul 20, 2012 8:09am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
4,1:1
Including my U/CAD longs, I am at 4.5:1 (E/U is 2:1, U/C is 2.5:1)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,639
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:09am Jul 20, 2012 8:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
Thanks for the update Wulf. Always appreciated. Many green pips to you my friend


Itll be a nice weekend at the beaches here... I sprained my ankle pretty bad last night playin basketball. Im lookin rest it off by layin at the beach drinkin my pain away and catching some sun. lol
  • #43,640
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:15am Jul 20, 2012 8:15am
Quoting Wulfgar


Itll be a nice weekend at the beaches here... I sprained my ankle pretty bad last night playin basketball. Im lookin rest it off by layin at the beach drinkin my pain away and catching some sun. lol
No better way to spend a weekend (apart from the pain)... enjoy

http://www.colourbox.com/preview/210...g-cocktail.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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