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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #43,441
  • Jul 19, 2012 3:31am Jul 19, 2012 3:31am
http://a8.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphot...94094392_n.jpg
  • #43,442
  • Jul 19, 2012 3:33am Jul 19, 2012 3:33am
Quoting TraderChris
hehe... Cgb, get a new wife - The new broom sweepeth cleanest, no?
Moly Maid service is cheaper in the long run!
Attached Image
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #43,443
  • Jul 19, 2012 3:34am Jul 19, 2012 3:34am
Quoting Cgb

We've been posting higher lows and lower highs for the last few days, this is now forming a symmetrical triangle on the hourly chart. It initially looked like a bear flag, but we've been too long in the flag portion. Duration of a flag is typically 12-18 or 20 max candles on the hourly. We've been in there too long now.
Check out the daily chart
  • #43,444
  • Jul 19, 2012 3:38am Jul 19, 2012 3:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
I bet you're glad you took partial on that.
BINGO
and i toke another sell at 1.2315
this pair is going to range for along time, until major thing happens..
  • #43,445
  • Jul 19, 2012 3:40am Jul 19, 2012 3:40am
Quoting CurrencyMan
http://a8.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphot...94094392_n.jpg
A recent post of mine on a friend's FB page while talking about the economy...

The masses are content to watch the news, say how bad things are and go back to watching Jeopardy or debate amonts themselves who will win this season's "American Idol". I say; "Great people talk about ideas. Average people talk about things. Small people talk about other people.", Author: Unknown
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #43,446
  • Jul 19, 2012 3:45am Jul 19, 2012 3:45am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Check out the daily chart
Yes Gofer Pips, I see the bear flag on the daily. The potential high on it in the next few days is 1.2360-80. 1.2380 happens to be the next supply/demand zone on the hourly. A good place to put a sell limit, but that's still 100 pips from today's Daily Pivot. If you're a swing trader, that's nothing, if your a short term trader, that's decent profit.

You want to leave that on the table?
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #43,447
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:12am Jul 19, 2012 4:12am
Quoting Cgb
Yes Gofer Pips, I see the bear flag on the daily. The potential high on it in the next few days is 1.2360-80. 1.2380 happens to be the next supply/demand zone on the hourly. A good place to put a sell limit, but that's still 100 pips from today's Daily Pivot. If you're a swing trader, that's nothing, if your a short term trader, that's decent profit.

You want to leave that on the table?
I have had a sell limit @1.2360(38.2) since we broke that level July 6, as well as 1.2420(50)...and many more above that were realistic and now only a pipe dream.
Until I reconfigure accounts with new broker, I can only trade one way here in the US on any one pair, and since I have a short at 1.2282( 23.6), I will patiently wait for profit, or more shorts on this turd.

BTW-numbers in () are fib levels of move down from June 29 high of 1.26919.

This US regulatory crap is enough to make me seriously consider moving to another country to trade when I go to full-time!
PT, any room in Malta for another big hammer?
  • #43,448
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:15am Jul 19, 2012 4:15am
Ah, Money Management! How could I forget?
Quoting Cgb
Moly Maid service is cheaper in the long run!
  • #43,449
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:17am Jul 19, 2012 4:17am
Quoting Gofer Pips
I have had a sell limit @1.2360(38.2) since we broke that level July 6, as well as 1.2420(50)...and many more above that were realistic and now only a pipe dream.
Until I reconfigure accounts with new broker, I can only trade one way here in the US on any one pair, and since I have a short at 1.2282( 23.6), I will patiently wait for profit, or more shorts on this turd.

BTW-numbers in () are fib levels of move down from June 29 high of 1.26919.

This US regulatory crap is enough to make me seriously consider moving to another country to...
There's always room here for a bro. Just pack your bags and send me your flight number.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,450
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:19am Jul 19, 2012 4:19am

Nothing Really Changes

http://hosting.fyleio.com/17735/public/banksters_1.jpg





The market has been in a good upswing over the last two days that has also been a good trade. Let’s hope the good trade, regardless of the direction, continues. Although the market is moving, there hasn’t been a great deal of macro-economic news.

In the meantime, I hope you enjoy the following from Bill Bonner “A Crisis Veiled in Public Spectacle” that covers several of the recent bank-scandal headlines
athttp://dailyreckoning.com/a-crisis-veiled-in-public-spectacle/

07/18/12 Madrid, Spain – You can’t help but feel sorry for the bankers. Yesterday, one of them was so upset and humiliated he tended his resignation — at a Senate hearing.

One after another the bankers mount the scaffold. Goldman, JP Morgan, Barclays…and now HSBC. One loses money. Another rigs LIBOR rates.

One fiddles an entire nation’s books. And another helps terrorists, drug dealers and money launderers with their banking needs.

Who will lose? The rich? Or the rest?

We’ve given you our answer many times: let Mr. Market sort it out. He’s completely impartial. He’s honest. He’s fast. And he works cheap.

In a flash, back in September-December of ’08, he probably would have wiped up the floor with the bankers. In a real crash, few of the big banks would have remained standing. Investors and lenders who had put their money in them…and who had invested in the things their phony credits supported…would have lost trillions. The rich wouldn’t be so rich anymore. And we’d now be in some phase of real recovery with many new financial institutions.

But we’re not in a position to impose our will on the world. And the politicians are. So, they’ve decided to do it another way. Instead of allowing Mr. Market to do his work they make their own choices…generally trying to direct the losses towards groups of people who don’t make campaign contributions…and don’t know what is going on. That is, towards the masses…and the unborn…

The idea has been to kick the can as far down the road as possible…borrowing and printing trillions more dollars to prop up the financial system…while also parading a few bankers through the streets with nooses around their necks. The press insults them. The mob spits upon them. The public spectacle continues…

…and nothing really changes.


Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia.
  • #43,451
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:29am Jul 19, 2012 4:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
There's always room here for a bro. Just pack your bags and send me your flight number.
Thanks bro', but I'm coming by boat and need a place to park my van!
Attached Image
  • #43,452
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:33am Jul 19, 2012 4:33am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Thanks bro', but I'm coming by boat and need a place to park my van!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,453
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:36am Jul 19, 2012 4:36am
So we have Risk On as We Can See. Then Why Is EUR/USD going down ?

The answer is clear. USD/JPY has got stroner and is now at 78.56

Look at a chart please. So as a RESULT EUR/JPY gets weaker. Look at a chart please. Then that brings EUR/USD down with it even though we have Risk On.

It is not always this clear as there is other factors at play. Oil and Gold are UP yet EUR/USD is heading down for the moment.

If my comments create new questions than just post them and I will do my best to answer.

Watch the Yields on the 2 Year Bonds now at .21%
  • #43,454
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:44am Jul 19, 2012 4:44am
Quoting CurrencyMan
So we have Risk On as We Can See. Then Why Is EUR/USD going down ?

The answer is clear. USD/JPY has got stroner and is now at 78.56

Look at a chart please. So as a RESULT EUR/JPY gets weaker. Look at a chart please. Then that brings EUR/USD down with it even though we have Risk On.

It is not always this clear as there is other factors at play. Oil and Gold are UP yet EUR/USD is heading down for the moment.

If my comments create new questions than just post them and I will do my best to answer.

Watch the Yields on the 2 Year Bonds now at...
So if I understand correctly, you have no idea where it's going.

Glad we got that straight.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #43,455
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:48am Jul 19, 2012 4:48am
Does anyone here think a downwards break is likely this week?
seems to be a lot of bullish pressure, though I noted Spanish 10 yr bond yields comfortably over the dreaded 7% - looks nasty for eurozone.
Maybe the risk on feel will bounce the euro thru 1.2235?
  • #43,456
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:49am Jul 19, 2012 4:49am
Quoting Cgb
So if I understand correctly, you have no idea where it's going.

Glad we got that straight.
I know what is happening and why. I trade somewhat like PipTrapper however I scalp and do well. I short at the Top and I know when things change direction.

You can do your thing and I do mine. My results satisfy me and I a sure yours satisfy you.

I trade currencies full time and my knowledge allows me to understand. Just for the record one more time I use Fundamentals - 25% and Technicals - 25% and Risk Management - 25% and the MOST IMPORTANT 25% is control of my Greed, Fears and EGO !!!

Trade well and have a Trade Plan

Have a great day fellow Trader. I will be in Toronto on Friday. I am coming in my car. Hogs make me nervous as I prefer 4 wheels and 2 blonds by my side. (That was my sense of humor) Take care Cgb
  • #43,457
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:52am Jul 19, 2012 4:52am
Quoting Cgb
So if I understand correctly, you have no idea where it's going.

Glad we got that straight.
This is the USD/JPY hourly chart. Can you tell me how this is getting stronger??? Try turning it upside down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Jul19_0747.gif Size: 129 KB
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #43,458
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:58am Jul 19, 2012 4:58am
Quoting Cgb
This is the USD/JPY hourly chart. Can you tell me how this is getting stronger??? Try turning it upside down
That means INTERVENTION by Japan.

As USD/JPY goes down it gets expensive for Exporters. Money is being parked into the Yen as in USD/JPY.

Perhaps PipTrapper can explain it to you as it appears you do not take me serious and that is fine as your opinion does not change anything about me as my opinion of you does not change you.

You are a very clever person and clearly a great FX Trader and you ride Hogs better than I ever will as explained in my last post.

Take care my Friend.

Have A Look And I Call It MONEY FLOW...

http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?rela...82815733005000
  • #43,459
  • Jul 19, 2012 5:12am Jul 19, 2012 5:12am
Quoting CurrencyMan
I know what is happening and why. I trade somewhat like PipTrapper however I scalp and do well. I short at the Top and I know when things change direction.

You can do your thing and I do mine. My results satisfy me and I a sure yours satisfy you.

I trade currencies full time and my knowledge allows me to understand. Just for the record one more time I use Fundamentals - 25% and Technicals - 25% and Risk Management - 25% and the MOST IMPORTANT 25% is control of my Greed, Fears and EGO !!!

Trade well and have a Trade Plan

Have a great...
Now that is a bit arrogant. I consider myself a pretty damn good technical analyst but to say the USD/JPY pair is getting stronger is pretty far fetched.

To say you know what is happening is rediculous. PT who I consider to have a pretty profound understanding of the economics behind trading can't make that claim, nor will he from how I read him. In all your post you have yet to say if your long or short, you just advise us to look at the charts, which is contradicting your other post where you state that you follow the money flow (how we don't know yet) and that the charts are nothing but a lagging indicator reflecting that you know is happening.

Please, for those who actually know and use technicals, I find your posts offensive.

Well, I've done my rant for the day, time to get off my soap box and continue licking my wounds from that trigger happy short I took this morning
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #43,460
  • Jul 19, 2012 5:18am Jul 19, 2012 5:18am
Quoting CurrencyMan
That means INTERVENTION by Japan.

As USD/JPY goes down it gets expensive for Exporters. Money is being parked into the Yen as in USD/JPY.

Perhaps PipTrapper can explain it to you as it appears you do not take me serious and that is fine as your opinion does not change anything about me as my opinion of you does not change you.

You are a very clever person and clearly a great FX Trader and you ride Hogs better than I ever will as explained in my last post.

Take care my Friend.

Have A Look And I Call It MONEY FLOW...

http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?rela...82815733005000...
Risk on or risk off matters not in the case of the Euro alone. The moves we are seeing in the E/U pair are because of the USD being bashed on the head over hopes/fears of QE3... which will not happen.

The reason the the E/U pair is choppy is because the Euro is very bearish. Look at it against all other major crosses (GBP, CAD, AUD, JPY). Against those pairs it is on a sustained trend to hell.

So, in a risk on environment, the E/U pair will chop and in a risk-off environment, the E/U pair will tank.

Any positional or swing trader will be looking to short any rallies from here forward. Intraday and scalpers can play it both ways but will also be able to try holding on to some shorts for a long run once the QE3 fear/hope is exhausted... possibly as soon as today's US jobless claims report in just over 10 minutes.

Play safe.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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