EurAnalysis

I think so.

also, the retracements are of poor quality.

also, on higher time frames the line goes from the top left of the screen to the bottom right!

I'm shorting euro mainly through EURAUD though - a major trend and good swap.

225 typo perhaps? Could you attach chart please?

T

yes typo, meant 2250

tks

Bounce or break?

Well, imo for sure. Market is in panic mode since last June or something. You need to imagine those investors behind those charts. Those huge sums of money. Look at sovereign bond yields, look at PIIGS debt/GDP ratio. They are totally unable to pay it, and as yields are climbing up, banks all across Europe are experiencing heavy liquidity squeeze. The problem is too much leverage. Markets are working on razorsharp capital and even little moves of the price will give margin calls to lots of people. Banks are loosing their assets, it is all crumbling in front of their eyes. Every little sign of further slowdown of economy spikes us down, since panic mode returns. Then they need to invest gigantic sums of money and time to get price back up, because if they dont, they are going to get bankrupt.

EU is totally out of money, they have hard time only to reroll their short term debts. Thats why it is essential to watch money injection news, which come mostly from Bubbles, Draghi or BoE lately. Really this is panic mode and officials are trying to do their best to prevent markets from crumbling into oblivion.

T

Wow sounds depressing. But hey don't we traders make money whether the markets rise or fall

Well I think Frau is pretty depressed right now . I am happy saviour of European community, because while shorting Euro, I am helping European export to wake up, so we can make enough GDP to pay our debts. Imo the best way out of crisis is massive devaluation of Euro. Yea, thats me, Saviour Tom.

Edit: Ah I forgot the second part of the "best way". Austerity. People in Europe are lazy and got used to artificial high living standard thanks to the debt. This has to end as well. Lazy lazy bastards. Like me.

Ok here's an update on my beloved AP with the 55 ema. The question I'm asking myself now is will it run down to the median line again and get support? As the main trend is down if it does get down there I feel it's going lower, much lower.

Break but have to wait for hour close to confirm.
Closed those two small longs anyway for lunchmoney.

Tom, like your view. Good expression of what is going on atm.
Me lazy European guy is going to have some coffee in the city now

I'm English - not European anyway. BIG difference lol

usdollar trying to reverse for some downwards movement in H1..

Can you elaborate more on this? I am kinda stumped reading and looking at your chart.

I dont use this pattern since I am unable to draw trendlines (I hate they are straight ) but I believe bear flag is something like this. There will be some rules for the pattern to valid ofc, which I dont know. You can try google in the meanwhile when PT is not here.

T

Oh dear, I was looking at the MS1 / 50% retrace whereas it actually went to the S1 / .786 area, so I banked my morning's trade a little early http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

Now a 50% bounce of this mornings drop would be back to the DP level.....

Hmm, very interesting point. Chop chop, chopy chop. But we may spike even higher. The market really is stuck in this Bearish flag. I think we have maximally one last correction within current channel and then it breaks. If we bounce, imo it may be one of the last chances to get in. Btw, I dont think we will make it there and ,22393 (this weeks open) holds.

T

Interesting, price on the 15min looks as if its just having a nice little breather waiting for the ma's to catch up before it makes its move.

so many noise so little PA. we made a range on the hourly...

my charts:

Apart from the fact that weekly open holds 15 min chart so far, MACD (12,24) will soon enter bearish territory.

T

Trading Forex is first a business where parties purchase currencies for business reasons. This includes Governments and large Corporations.

The other part of the business of the Retail Brokers is to take away money from retail traders. You are part of the game.

Each day at 2:00 AM EST in Montreal I see the retail traders push the Euro up or sometimes down. Then Frankfurt opens at 2:00 AM EST and the Fishermen or Fisherwomen have their breakfast. Guess who the breakfast is. They are very hungry so they eat quickly and then we await the open of Europe at 3:00 AM EST in Montreal when the CAC and the DAX and the FTSE comes on board. The movement of the Equities causes the money flow between Asset Classes and the value of EUR/USD changes.

It also changes based on the Dow Futures being up or down. Call this CORRELATION although it is not always 100% because of other very serious issues in Europe such as Greece and Spain and Italy.

Then news comes out in Europe like the ZEW and that changes perceptions and values change.

Now we move forward to 7:00 AM EST in Montreal and one hour and 30 minutes from US DATA at 8:30 AM EST and then North American Equities start trading at 9:30 AM and of course Monday to Friday we have Option Expiry at 10:00 AM.

Europe goes home at 11:30 AM EST in Montreal so there is less volume in the Forex Markets.

The movement of the Dow from NOON EST in Montreal until 4:00 PM affects the values as money FLOWS between US Bonds with Risk ON or Risk Off. Then at 5:00 PM EST in Montreal we have the Daily Rollover.

This repeats 5 days a week. Wednesday the Rollovers are calculated for Wednesday to Friday so you have three days in one.

Now we come to the moment and I will try to show you what might happen REGARDLESS of what the Charts show at the moment.

Is everyone following along ? Are there any questions ?

Right now at 8:22 AM EST in Montreal I want to SET the Goalposts for myself.

Dow Futures are down 34 while Europe is slightly in the Green.

Geithner speaks in 6 minutes LIVE and Benny answers questions or avoids questions at 10:00 AM EST in Montreal.

Risk On or Risk Off Now ?

Then I decide we are NEUTRAL for the moment.

2 Year US Bonds at .23% and 10 Year US Bonds at 1.48%.

Gold is Down and Oil is Down.

EUR/USD at 1.2233 with EUR/JPY at 96.61 and USD/JPY at 78.97

There is usually CORRELATION between EUR/USD and EUR/JPY as they both move usually in the same direction with usually EUR/JPY moving FIRST depending on USD/JPY.

When Risk is OFF money usually FLOWS to the US Dollar as US Bonds are purchased for safety and Yield. The other safe PARKING currency is USD/JPY and as that moves it causes EUR/JPY to move UP or Down and in turn this moves EUR/USD.

I hope this is all clear and if not I am availble to answer your questions if you have any.

Have a great trading day as Housing Starts are PLUS 6.9% so RISK is ON and the Dow Futures should get Better and EUR/USD might rise before the Equities Markets open at 8:30 AM.

EUR/USD is at 1.2228 and Gold is at $1574 US

Dow Futures down 36 now so we are awaiting Geithner and Bernake now.

P.S. Now the Talking Heads on CNBC start to SPIN the GREAT Housing Starts NUMBER !!!

Dow Futures down 38 at the moment so we have a little Risk Off and I keep watching the Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds to see which WAY the MONEY is FLOWING !!!

Here is Geithner now being questioned by Larry Kudlow of CNBC.

One Word from his mouth can MOVE MARKETS charts or no charts. I am watching LIVE now on CNBC.