EurAnalysis | Page 2156 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #43,101
  • Edited 3:37am Jul 17, 2012 3:05am | Edited 3:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
Today's option expiries at 1400 GMT for the Euro

1.2400
1.2300
1.2250
1.2200
1.2190
1.2100

Important to keep in mind that Bernanke testifies at 14:00 GMT today (same time as option expiries) so I don't expect these expiries to have much influence on price.

Multi Levels need to Watch...

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PUPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

And... Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU in H1 Chart - Level.jpg Size: 309 KB
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #43,102
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:08am Jul 17, 2012 3:08am
It's a good chance to catch some pips before Bernanke speak, we always have a ranging day before his speak
  • #43,103
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:19am Jul 17, 2012 3:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
120 pips up from current levels will take us to 1.2410 area
That would require a break of the falling channel resistance which currently comes in around 1.2390, so I would say 1.2390 is a more likely maximum. However, as we all know, trend lines and channels are not the holy grail.

E/U H4
Attachment
Ofcourse there are much more of resistances in upper direction than supports in downward, but it would not be so illogical to go up as someone always have an extra trillion to move this turd in order to wipe out honest people
69
  • #43,104
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:35am Jul 17, 2012 3:35am
Quoting Likerty
Ofcourse there are much more of resistances in upper direction than supports in downward, but it would not be so illogical to go up as someone always have an extra trillion to move this turd in order to wipe out honest people
hehe., What honest people? This business is not about honesty or dishonesty. It is about domination and submission. Forex is a zero sum game. In order for someone to gain, someone else has to lose.

So, if you gain, someone loses. Does that make you dishonest? Nope. It makes you dominant

http://www.publicdomainpictures.net/...156850ss7a.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,105
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:39am Jul 17, 2012 3:39am
To me the PA is showing all the signs of a move up.
Is this the trick they play to sucker all the longs in before Benny speaks and then they drop it?
  • #43,106
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:39am Jul 17, 2012 3:39am
Quoting Likerty
Ofcourse there are much more of resistances in upper direction than supports in downward, but it would not be so illogical to go up as someone always have an extra trillion to move this turd in order to wipe out honest people
Special when 2 days ago, everyone was shotning the pair! It's a great time to catch all the stop losses!
I decided to hedge my short positions until i a clear sign of reversal appers, i can wait until the theme Spain, Italy and Greece comes back again to the main stories...
  • #43,107
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:39am Jul 17, 2012 3:39am
Quoting Tsar
Multi Levels need to Watch...

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PUPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

And... Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels.
Excellent layout. Thanks Tsar
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,108
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:42am Jul 17, 2012 3:42am
Quoting andys0506
To me the PA is showing all the signs of a move up.
Is this the trick they play to sucker all the longs in before Benny speaks and then they drop it?
IMO it's all covering of USD longs in fear/hope of QE3. Once Benny disappoints the market, the USD bulls will be back in full force. If he hints that something may be done at the next meeting to provide the market with more liquidity, then we probably see another short squeeze on the E/U pair and then the downtrend will resume... but slowly. Read my 17 July Market Update for details.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,109
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:45am Jul 17, 2012 3:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
Excellent layout. Thanks Tsar
Your Welcome Bro...

Help for Catch IMAGE from your EXPLAINT Levels to Another Traders :nerd:
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #43,110
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:45am Jul 17, 2012 3:45am
Quoting nunonuk
Special when 2 days ago, everyone was shotning the pair! It's a great time to catch all the stop losses!
I decided to hedge my short positions until i a clear sign of reversal appers, i can wait until the theme Spain, Italy and Greece comes back again to the main stories...
Good move but don't forget to set stop @ BE for the long hedge coz as soon as Benny disappoints, you may not have enough time to react.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,111
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:46am Jul 17, 2012 3:46am
Quoting Tsar
Your Welcome Bro...

Help for Catch IMAGE from your EXPLAINT Levels to Another Traders :nerd:
Yes it does. Thanks again
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,112
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:48am Jul 17, 2012 3:48am
Quoting Evanescence
It's a good chance to catch some pips before Bernanke speak, we always have a ranging day before his speak
True but this time may have a bullish bias because the market is very net short (Or I should say long the USD)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,113
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:53am Jul 17, 2012 3:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good move but don't forget to set stop @ BE for the long hedge coz as soon as Benny disappoints, you may not have enough time to react.
I forgot to set stop loss, ups. Thanks for the tip
  • #43,114
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:54am Jul 17, 2012 3:54am
BACK TO BEN

17/07/12 @ 07:35 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

The dollar has softened over the past 24 hours in the hope that the US Federal Reserve chairman is once again going to save the day and hint at further quantitative easing to come. There are two immediate issues with this. First, it’s pretty clear from the recent minutes and other communications that the Fed has made further easing measures conditional on a further deterioration of the economy and principally the labour market, which has been the ongoing area of disappointment. The latest jobs numbers, both on payrolls and claims have not been sufficient to elicit such a hint in our view. But there’s also the question of just what the Fed can deliver and its effectiveness. This was evident in comments from one of the Fed governors yesterday (known ‘hawk’ Lacker), who stated “The thing I worry about is that expectations for what the Federal Reserve… has become over-inflated”. We wait to see what Bernanke delivers at his half-yearly testimony today, but those expecting a stronger hint of more monetary stimulus to come are likely to be disappointed.

Commentary

The drowning euro. It’s the euro crosses that are really catching the attention. Against each of the Aussie, Canadian dollar and the Kiwi, the euro has recently recorded new record lows this month, while vs. the Japanese yen the single currency is once again threatening to break the early June low of 95.60. Especially unsettling on Monday were the various reports that the ECB is now prepared to allow senior unsecured note-holders of Spanish banks to be subjected to significant capital losses. In late New York and Asia trade, the single currency has made back some ground, helped by the weaker dollar in anticipation of Bernanke’s testimony later today. But we expect there is going to be some disappointment with Bernanke’s message, which could see the dollar retrace some of the overnight weakness.

Sterling stronger ahead of CPI data. Today’s inflation numbers are expected to show the headline rate steady at 2.8% in June, but with more QE now delivered, sterling should be more relaxed about the outcome. We’ve highlighted before the resilience of sterling and this was again evident in Monday’s session, with EUR/GBP pushing the lows both into midday and also the European close. The 0.80 level on EUR/GBP proved to be a key area of resistance back in 2008, with the cross moving higher on the escalation of the financial crisis towards the end of that year and although the cross moved below 0.80 in May of this year, the moves proved to be fleeting. This time around, the downside momentum has been stronger. Of course, it’s not all been about sterling, with the euro having a fairly difficult month so far. We’ve seen interest rate differentials move modestly in favour of sterling during this time, eurozone 2yr rates moving down faster than their sterling equivalent. As we’ve discussed before, the UK currency has benefitted from diversification flows during the first half of the year as investors looked to bypass the euro area. From a domestic perspective however, sterling’s strength vs. its main trading partner naturally creates fresh challenges and undermines the long-term desire of the Bank of England to see a rebalancing of the UK economy towards greater reliance on net exports and also investment. So, whilst some may see the Bank’s latest extension of its quantitative easing program as a means of lowering sterling and helping to achieve this rebalancing aim (although naturally the Bank is not going to state it this way), any such desires are likely meet with disappointment, with this latest down-move on EUR/GBP looking likely to be sustained in the second half of the year.

China hopes remain strong. The visit of premier Wen Jiabao to the Sichuan province earlier this week was timely, given that this area has led China’s growth transformation. He was more candid out the outlook, stating “It should be clearly understood that the momentum for a stable rebound in the economy has not yet been established”. For the leader of one of the world’s largest economies, the directness of Wen’s warning is unusual and should be commended. Furthermore, Wen vowed that policy-makers would step up their fine-tuning efforts. The State Council is due to meet tomorrow, so it is possible that further measures could be announced very soon thereafter. Last week, the PBOC claimed that the world situation was extremely complicated and that weak global demand would scupper China’s recovery prospects. Meanwhile, the currency continues to weaken against the dollar and the stock-market continues to swoon. The Shanghai Composite has dropped by more than 12% since early May; it remains one of the world’s worst performing bourses in Asia for the year-to-date.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,115
  • Jul 17, 2012 3:57am Jul 17, 2012 3:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
hehe., What honest people? This business is not about honesty or dishonesty. It is about domination and submission. Forex is a zero sum game. In order for someone to gain, someone else has to lose.
Well...I meant the last one - this looks pretty honest isnt it?
Attached Image
69
  • #43,116
  • Jul 17, 2012 4:00am Jul 17, 2012 4:00am
Quoting nunonuk
I forgot to set stop loss, ups. Thanks for the tip
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #43,117
  • Jul 17, 2012 4:08am Jul 17, 2012 4:08am
Quoting Likerty
Well...I meant the last one - this looks pretty honest isnt it?
  • #43,118
  • Jul 17, 2012 4:39am Jul 17, 2012 4:39am
Hi,

someone tried or knows the broker called rexfo (www.rexfo.com)?

Thank you!

forexBOOM
  • #43,119
  • Jul 17, 2012 4:50am Jul 17, 2012 4:50am
Good Morning Everybody...
What's your plans for today?

Today I am slighly bearish , but what I am afraid of is Mr. Bernanke.
It happened many times before, that during his speech we will get a huge spike up (taking all SL) only to see it all drops like hell 15-30 minutes later.
I am just wondering if this might happen today...
Therefore I stay out, watching charts as we will probably crawl sideways until Ben Bernanke...
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #43,120
  • Jul 17, 2012 4:59am Jul 17, 2012 4:59am
Quoting Halifax
You are probably right, I haven't seen any reason why people would be Euro bullish, however I am trying to never underestimate hopium power.

With that in mind, and Bernanke testifying on Wednesday and Thursday next week isn't it possible for some hopium to be on the cards? By all means shorts don't need to cover and can probably add, but I am open to the possibility that we have a little squeeze.

Now positioning wise, there may be no fundamental reason for a Euro rally, but we have had 2 weeks of drops and steady grinding lower without...
Had a think about this for a while and ended up putting a pending long at 1.2170, but I guess my aim was a bit off because it didn't get hit. In the end I decided that:

Important News > Technicals > Fundamentals.... roughly, and nothing too bad came out so I wanted to listen to the technicals and ignore the fundies.

Where we are now is sort of no mans land for me. I feel as if there isn't meaningful supply until quite a bit higher, so unless a fresh supply is formed somewhere around here I can only see blueish sky up to 2500. That said, I'm not keen to long here as I missed the boat at the lower levels and don't like to chase it. My plan is wait for US to sell the highs at 2500 on hopium news or wait for fresh levels to form.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hmms.jpg Size: 66 KB
"Don't Panic..."
26 traders viewing now