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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #11,341
  • Jul 15, 2012 1:48pm Jul 15, 2012 1:48pm
I read and consider COT every week, unlike COT analysis i won't see EURUSD rising during this week, may some Up-Trend on Monday and Tuesday but i can't find any good reason to support EURO Zone. On the other hand,
Safest Currency Heaven are AUD, NZD
USDCHF
Still i am waiting breaking important R-level 0.9905 for Up-Trend or 0.9550 for Down-Trend(Although i said before the trend will be bounce back from 0.9910 now it's time to break it, regarding bouncing back 0.9878 on Friday, and now finding good momentum to break that level instead of going down )
CPI reports in different markets are good force to move pairs.
Have a nice week for all
Kami
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,342
  • Jul 15, 2012 2:10pm Jul 15, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting Custos
how long are you already trading? You think a first year medicine student won't be overwhelmed as well by all the information about the body, all different medical devices?

It takes years to be able to make sense of all this on a regular basis - like in any other profession.

No idea why people always think that they can trade within a couple of months or even years like a god.
Been around for some time Custos. Not a few months.
However it is not my style to rely on news. is it yours?
  • #11,343
  • Jul 15, 2012 2:10pm Jul 15, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting vladutz112
Guys, do you know how to setup the indicator to show me when the direction of the 3 ma's are going down or up cuz Hector indicator has some sort of setup that i don't understand i mean look now at eur/usd on daily shows red but on h4 doesn't show ..but the ma's are still down...or if u know another indicator ...thx
Hi
There are many experienced and sure better traders than i , but i share my experience with you may it will be helpful.
i think,First of all, traders must consider their Time Frame for trading and then indicators
Second, if you are Technical Trader you have to find sth shows the changing trend (probability) better than others according to TF (such as Volume, Momentum, Power,..), referring to my experience, Moving Average can help traders in long run and i have found them useless for short term
And so many other things ....
Kami
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,344
  • Jul 15, 2012 2:12pm Jul 15, 2012 2:12pm
Considering what i already know to make sense from all this data and then make pips from it is highly unlikely. Ok, I am technical trader so do not take my words seriously. I believe that price in the now includes all I need to know.
I am not being aggressive here. i am just asking question cause I cannot trade from fundamental data.
  • #11,345
  • Jul 15, 2012 3:26pm Jul 15, 2012 3:26pm
Quoting Holy Cow
Been around for some time Custos. Not a few months.
However it is not my style to rely on news. is it yours?
not mine either. But just reaching the conclusion that fundies are irrelevant cause we don't understand them and price is the only consideration is just wrong.
  • #11,346
  • Jul 15, 2012 3:34pm Jul 15, 2012 3:34pm
Quoting Holy Cow
Guys , is anyone making some pips based on all this fundamental data? I just cannot get my head all over this stuff.
it seems to me that price is the only thing that matters. it includes everything. IMHO this amount of information can simply paralyze trader's decision taking ability.

i honestly dont understand your question: we have two people here, shomari and I; we obviously use fundamental analysis in our trading decision...and we are obviously doing well. So, why are you asking if people make money using fundamental analysis? Here is piptrapper's performance, he is a solid fundamental trader.

How does fundie paralyzes a trader decision making? frankly, i used to find technical analysis far more subjective and confusing with all the million of ways to draw patterns and soo many different time frames all saying 10,000 different things in a 5,000 different ways.

FUNDIE is nearly straight forward: Economy of country A is bad. Economy of country B is good...economy of country C is inbetween by this much. That is it.

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS: COT shows you extreme sentiment...put/call option ratios shows you extreme sentiment...index shows you relative performance:how country x is performing against every body else. How complicated is that? what is confusing about that?

That, to me, seems much more straightforward than...is that triangle? or head-and-shoulder? or butterfly? or rectangle? or wave 5 or gann's fan lines...etc...all saying 20 different things...we have not even get started on the gazillion of oscillators and indicators etc.

At the end of the day, it is whatever works for you. To me, the picture is absolutely not complete without fundamentals. Others may disagree,that is their cup of tea.

-skynet
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,347
  • Jul 15, 2012 4:01pm Jul 15, 2012 4:01pm
mr. kamifx, i cannot say i disagree with you. However, here is good case for some temp euro bulls. How LONG will it last? i dont honestly know.


Quoting kamifx
I read and consider COT every week, unlike COT analysis i won't see EURUSD rising during this week, may some Up-Trend on Monday and Tuesday but i can't find any good reason to support EURO Zone. On the other hand,
Safest Currency Heaven are AUD, NZD
USDCHF
Still i am waiting breaking important R-level 0.9905 for Up-Trend or 0.9550 for Down-Trend(Although i said before the trend will be bounce back from 0.9910 now it's time to break it, regarding bouncing back 0.9878 on Friday, and now finding...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,348
  • Jul 15, 2012 4:06pm Jul 15, 2012 4:06pm
Quoting Skynet
EUR/HKD.

SHORT POSITION INITIATED...risky...going into the weekend...it is was very small, very speculative position....

chart attached:
CLOSED this position for a small loss...the EUR bulllishness is kicking the stronger HKD.

oh well, you cant win them all.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,349
  • Jul 15, 2012 4:27pm Jul 15, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting Custos
not mine either. But just reaching the conclusion that fundies are irrelevant cause we don't understand them and price is the only consideration is just wrong.
if you see my last round of trades where I went short it was clear why I did. I am not interested in news but rather how markets reacts in certain situations. in this case favorable eur news failed to make new highs. but still, it is just a price reaction.
  • #11,350
  • Jul 15, 2012 4:28pm Jul 15, 2012 4:28pm
Quoting Skynet
i honestly dont understand your question: we have two people here, shomari and I; we obviously use fundamental analysis in our trading decision...and we are obviously doing well. So, why are you asking if people make money using fundamental analysis? Here is piptrapper's performance, he is a solid fundamental trader.

How does fundie paralyzes a trader decision making? frankly, i used to find technical analysis far more subjective and confusing with all the million...
ok, just was asking.
  • #11,351
  • Edited 6:20pm Jul 15, 2012 6:08pm | Edited 6:20pm
When you research COT report analysis on the net 9/10 commentators will tell you that the group of traders to focus on and follow keenly are the large speculators, the non-commercial traders, as these are the trend followers. This group will be often wrong at the top and bottom of the market when the trend changes, however, the non-comms. always have big gains as they get the meat of the trend. And on the face of it, it seems to make complete sense to see whether they are net long or short and if possible exploit the same trends that they following.

However, I have found someone from the 1/10 camp who clearly states if you want to use the COT report to the optimum and make the seriously big pips you must follow the commercials traders, as it is this group who make the trends and then bring them to an end. In fact the Inner circle trader gives the best COT report analysis I have seen which you can listen to here . As you will see although the non-comms are good at identifying the middle of a trend, the commercials with the deep pockets and teams of fundamental analysts are the ones who will flag up for you the change of trend virtually every time. ICT also quotes a couple of really excellent books which also state the commercial money is the smart money to look at. You can find the links here to download the Commitment of Traders Bible and Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders.

Please let the thread know what you think of ICT analysis.

Persistence overcomes resistance!
Attached Images
  • #11,352
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:50am Jul 16, 2012 12:50am
I had a buy in eurusd and sell in usdchf. for both target is 30 pips each


http://spartan-trader.blogspot.in
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.JPG Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf 4hrs.JPG Size: 60 KB
  • #11,353
  • Jul 16, 2012 3:21am Jul 16, 2012 3:21am
Quoting Skynet
EUR/HKD.

SHORT POSITION INITIATED...risky...going into the weekend...it is was very small, very speculative position....

chart attached:

Quoting Skynet
CLOSED this position for a small loss...the EUR bulllishness is kicking the stronger HKD.

oh well, you cant win them all.
After that initial loss, a new SHORT POSITION RE-OPENED. this one with the proper lot size. going well so far...still very far from the TP point...(as you can see on the chart)...if every thing goes as planned...r/r = 1:3.3 . obviously this trade is fundamentally sound HKD beats EUR.

chart with annotations attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-16_03-53_Are you using Tor.jpg Size: 81 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,354
  • Jul 16, 2012 3:40am Jul 16, 2012 3:40am
Quoting kumarr81
I had a buy in eurusd and sell in usdchf. for both target is 30 pips each


http://spartan-trader.blogspot.in
GOING Long euro is risky. giving the fundamentals...if you have to go long...buying at 1.2208 to 1.2200 will be better. Of course, if price goes below the low of friday...that trade is invalidated.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,355
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:05am Jul 16, 2012 4:05am
Quoting Skynet
After that initial loss, a new SHORT POSITION RE-OPENED. this one with the proper lot size. going well so far...still very far from the TP point...(as you can see on the chart)...if every thing goes as planned...r/r = 1:3.3 . obviously this trade is fundamentally sound HKD beats EUR.

chart with annotations attached.

CHART UPDATE: nice, strong drop suddenly hits. sweet! New chart update attached...with annotations:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-16_05-02_OANDA.jpg Size: 83 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,356
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:23am Jul 16, 2012 4:23am
Quoting Skynet
After that initial loss, a new SHORT POSITION RE-OPENED. this one with the proper lot size. going well so far...still very far from the TP point...(as you can see on the chart)...if every thing goes as planned...r/r = 1:3.3 . obviously this trade is fundamentally sound HKD beats EUR.

chart with annotations attached.

EUR/HKD is kicking arse like a boss!

update again! sweet drop continues....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-16_05-18_OANDA.jpg Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-16_05-20_OANDA.jpg Size: 75 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,357
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:52am Jul 16, 2012 4:52am
Quoting Skynet
EUR/HKD is kicking arse like a boss!

update again! sweet drop continues....

1ST TP REACHED:

nothing much to say except that i offloaded some here...the trade is already over 1:3....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-16_05-48_OANDA.jpg Size: 79 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,358
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:50am Jul 16, 2012 5:50am
Quoting Skynet
UPDATE ON long usd/dkk.....it is now up by 7R....that is 7times return on risk. chart update attached below:

check chart below...i miss this trade on USD/DKK...it would have been sweet:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-16_06-44_OANDA.jpg Size: 70 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,359
  • Jul 16, 2012 9:40am Jul 16, 2012 9:40am
Quoting Skynet
EUR/GBP.
update chart below. made slighhtly above 1:2 r/r on it. trade completed.
on the chart(in the above post i made a note stating that i will keep the remaining 15% till EUR/GBP reach weekly support....well, it has gotten to 0.7833. the weekly support. offloading the remaining 15% for 1:4= 4R.

of course, when price breaks that support and try to retest from the downside...i will short again....the EUR fundamentals sucks more than GBP fundamentals. This news hit today...we will see how true it is.

PREVIOUS CHART IS HERE.

chart update attached:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-16_10-18_OANDA.jpg Size: 68 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,360
  • Edited 4:32pm Jul 16, 2012 3:49pm | Edited 4:32pm
Quoting Skynet
4 rexx..excellent breakdown of COT report. nicely done.

--skynet.
.
thanks for the support sky, I work in education and one strategy to motivate someone to learn a topic is to allow them teach someone else it, as this will make them do their homework! I like to do research to gain a good understanding of things and if it can help others that's even better. The many contributors and readers of this thread are all at different levels of experience, understanding and confidence, and the techs and fundies expressed in this thread i'm sure helps traders of all abilities, to grow in those three areas.

Quote
Originally Posted by Holy Cow http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Guys , is anyone making some pips based on all this fundamental data? I just cannot get my head all over this stuff.
it seems to me that price is the only thing that matters. it includes everything. IMHO this amount of information can simply paralyze trader's decision taking ability.

Holy Cow i agree that too much analysis can bring paralysis, and i'm still learning how to use fundies to better effect. Fundies are just about the bigger picture so that you are aware of what the market is looking at and thus how they can give you a heads-up of weak or strong economies, where investors are moving there money from and to, and therefore which currency could or should be appreciating or depreciating.

If you like you could think of fundies as another aspect of confluence. When you carry out your tech analysis; old s&r level, fib level, round number, t/line, etc, if the fundies are also on your side as well it just makes it an even higher probabillity trade thats all. Sometimes fundies are more important than other times. You were in a trade for a couple of months and thus a adverse fundamental new release will only be a blip in that long term strong trend, but more painful if you were trying to bag some intraday pips. There are some people who say they trade on fundamentals alone and there is a FF thread on this, but even a fundies centred trader must use tech analysis to know when and how to enter a trade and also where to set their stops, so IMHO everyone uses both maybe 50/50, 90/10 etc, etc, as sky says its what works for you. The one time I hit a one day home run on 4 simultaneus trades was on fundie news and of course price action. it was during the shockwaves from the faltering eurozone. I shorted eurusd, dow jones, s & P,and the nasdaq and I bagged about 750 pips. You could call it fundies or common sense or luck but it worked.

Persistence overcomes resistance!
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