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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #11,321
  • Jul 13, 2012 3:37pm Jul 13, 2012 3:37pm
Quoting Skynet
Market report:

Trending pairs on higher time frames.

8th of july, 2012.

EUR/GBP.

update chart below. made slighhtly above 1:2 r/r on it. trade completed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-13_16-30_OANDA.jpg Size: 72 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,322
  • Jul 13, 2012 3:48pm Jul 13, 2012 3:48pm
Quoting Skynet
Market report:

Trending pairs on higher time frames.

8th of july, 2012.

EUR/HKD.

SHORT POSITION INITIATED...risky...going into the weekend...it is was very small, very speculative position....

chart attached:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-13_16-45_OANDA.jpg Size: 64 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,323
  • Jul 13, 2012 4:07pm Jul 13, 2012 4:07pm
Quoting Skynet
Market report:

Trending pairs on higher time frames.

8th of july, 2012.

END OF WEEK: 13th of july, 2012.

All the pairs posted in the link presented trading opportunities 3sma style with the exception of XAG/CAD.

Only 1 resulted in B/E...that was EUR/TRY....which later turned around and went to price target anyways. punk!

the rest...this is how they did.

EUR/SGD....before and after....2x risk was the return
EUR/HKD...trade in progress..
EUR/GBP....before and after....2x risk was the return
USD/DKK...before and after...and after....7x risk was the return


AND MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...gbp/cad...before and after.....3.6x risk was the return.


HOPEFULLY, SEE YOU LADS THIS SUNDAY for another round of setups....

over and out,

-skynet
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,324
  • Jul 13, 2012 4:44pm Jul 13, 2012 4:44pm
gbp/usd and gbp/jpy moved against me. I have not been able to lock pips as price action did not make any level to hide stops behind. so closed half of both positions and see what will happen.

went long brent oil and shorted Japan 225.
other pairs look ok for now. so far no new signals but few pairs are close.

platform at maintenance. so cannot post the latest data till maintenance is over. will do.
but overall gbp/usd +50 , was 200+ and gbp/jpy +120 was 250. eur/usd 50-70 pips less but overall other pairs where they were. must be some gbp related news.
the latest oil and Japan 225 trades copied before market close:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trades futures.JPG Size: 41 KB


let's see what next week will bring
  • #11,325
  • Edited Jul 14, 2012 3:31pm Jul 13, 2012 6:46pm | Edited Jul 14, 2012 3:31pm
Quote
Originally Posted by Shomari

GOOGLE: " "COT charts and forex market", and the stuff from SKYNETS post.

THESE INDICATORS WILL GIVE YOU A "BIRDS EYE VIEW" MACRO VIEW OF THE FINACIAL WORLD, AND A GREAT BASIS FOR MAKING YOUR FOREX TRADES.


I remember I first heard of the COT report when I first started learning FX trading, but as a complete newbie much of the information went straight over my head. But when I heard it mentioned in this thread I did some research again of which you will find the links below if you think you will benefit from the info. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report which can be found here and instructions of how to access it here. One of the drawbacks of this data is that it is released every Friday by The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and gives statistical information on open positions in the futures market on the previous Tuesday. Thus it is not so valuable for the intraday trader, but its more important for the EOD or long term trader. However, it is a good tool for gauging currency and commodity futures market sentiment at a certain period in time and therefore by studying it could give you an indication of the present (3 days old!) or future marketplace bias. One report in itself is not much good you need to collect it on a weekly basis then you will be able to note the weekly and monthly change in sentiment.

It lists the open interest of three groups of traders, the Non-Commercial, Commercial and small traders. The main group of interest to FX traders is the Non-Commercial’s who are professional traders, the “trend followers” who are only in the market to make money. So if the trend changes they will close all their open positions (by stops hit or manually) and then re-enter the market in-line with the new trend. These guys and girls are wrong at times but as soon as they see their error they will close trades immediately to protect profits! Watching where the Non-Commercial's put there money is valuable information on how these professional speculators see the currency futures market.

The COT report is important for the FX market because, there is not a similar report which is FX specific, and the futures market actually acts like a leading indicator for FX. Most foreign currency futures are quoted directly against the US Dollar futures, in that if the EUR futures rise in value in comparison to the USD futures the EURUSD pair will rise. It moves similarly with the weakness and strength of other currencies futures in relation to USD futures. So in this respect both markets seem to move in a collective fashion. There is a good description and examples of this relationship between the two markets in 7 Winning Strategiesfor Trading Forex in Chap 5. You can see some of the many ways traders use the report here also. Like most indicators the COT report should be used in conjunction with price action, fundamentals and other indicators, before you apply your entry and exit strategies. There are also a number of live explanations on youtube from TransactionalTrading, Informedtrades.com and the Moneyshow.com

Persistence overcomes resistance!
  • #11,326
  • Jul 14, 2012 5:07am Jul 14, 2012 5:07am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trades.JPG Size: 52 KB
  • #11,327
  • Jul 14, 2012 5:22am Jul 14, 2012 5:22am
Quoting Holy Cow
Attachment
HOLY BULL

nice
No place for mistakes
  • #11,328
  • Jul 14, 2012 6:06am Jul 14, 2012 6:06am
Quoting Soldier
HOLY BULL

nice


I am not there yet. Need more pips.
  • #11,329
  • Jul 14, 2012 5:32pm Jul 14, 2012 5:32pm
Guys, do you know how to setup the indicator to show me when the direction of the 3 ma's are going down or up cuz Hector indicator has some sort of setup that i don't understand i mean look now at eur/usd on daily shows red but on h4 doesn't show ..but the ma's are still down...or if u know another indicator ...thx
  • #11,330
  • Jul 14, 2012 5:59pm Jul 14, 2012 5:59pm
Quoting vladutz112
Guys, do you know how to setup the indicator to show me when the direction of the 3 ma's are going down or up cuz Hector indicator has some sort of setup that i don't understand i mean look now at eur/usd on daily shows red but on h4 doesn't show ..but the ma's are still down...or if u know another indicator ...thx

Vlad, Hector's set up is actually very simple. 3 ema's cross in one direction they start spreading wider as trend develops.
once the high of the move made you set Fibs, check swings highs/ lows , round numbers, draw trend line when it develops and wait. you need no indicator those where ema's are going. Just your eyes.
  • #11,331
  • Jul 14, 2012 7:07pm Jul 14, 2012 7:07pm
Quoting Holy Cow
Vlad, Hector's set up is actually very simple. 3 ema's cross in one direction they start spreading wider as trend develops.
once the high of the move made you set Fibs, check swings highs/ lows , round numbers, draw trend line when it develops and wait. you need no indicator those where ema's are going. Just your eyes.
yes i know but it would easy for me looking at 1 time frame
  • #11,332
  • Jul 14, 2012 7:17pm Jul 14, 2012 7:17pm
Quoting vladutz112
yes i know but it would easy for me looking at 1 time frame

but what time frame you are trading from? the main one not the trigger.
  • #11,333
  • Jul 14, 2012 7:37pm Jul 14, 2012 7:37pm
i look on h4 for trend then on m30 i wait a fractal trendline break and i'm in!
  • #11,334
  • Jul 14, 2012 8:02pm Jul 14, 2012 8:02pm
You will see below the 2 most recent COT Reports 3 & 7 July 2012 for the EURO FX Futures contracts. The focus here is on two main areas 1. The Non-commercial's (large speculators) long or short contract numbers, 2. The Open interest for EURO Futures. To find out if they are overall net long or short in the EURO futures market, we have to subtract the short positions from the long positions. If we get a negative number the non-comms are net short overall and a positive number means they are net long.

On both reports non-comms are holding overall short positions on the EURO futures. And by comparing the numbers in each report the non-comms are increasing their short holdings which shows the bearish positions are being added to. By running a similar analysis on the open interest for EURO futures and comparing the numbers from the 2 reports again there is an increase in bearish market participation. So clearly the market sentiment amongst these non-comms in the EUR futures market is bearish, which is hardly anything new as a cursory glance at price action on the EURUSD chart also gives us the same sentiment.

I think the importance of these reports is when we see the sentiment (money) change position whether it is gradually or hastily. What is EURUSD price action doing? Is price reacting to major support? Are the non-comms right in their analysis (herd mentality) or are they incorrect? Is a change in trend coming? Or is it just uncertainty before the trend continues? However, what is guaranteed is that when price reaches an extreme position it has to change direction. Keep on surveying those reports!

Persistence overcome resistance!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cot report analysis.gif Size: 88 KB
  • #11,335
  • Jul 14, 2012 8:54pm Jul 14, 2012 8:54pm
Quoting vladutz112
i look on h4 for trend then on m30 i wait a fractal trendline break and i'm in!
ok, according to Hector it should be 4H and 1H, but ok. open 2 windows. one at 4H and another 30M and you can see on both whether 3 ema's are up or down. I wonder why is that people need indicator for everything
  • #11,336
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:32am Jul 15, 2012 8:32am
SHOMARI,

i read your the links you posted...from the NYT..to the zerohedge and barrons on CHINA...very good stuff.....one other indicator i took from those articles that i never thought of was to try and track the movement of high chinese officials investment out of china...or news of increasing frequency of high chinese officials taking a holiday. that will be a tell.

there are many argument to and fro on the chinese economy...will it crash or not? If it crashes, the effect will be insane...jim chanos thinks this will happen sooner...bloomberg consensus expects to be around 2015 or so....jim rogers think that is nonsense....anyways... jim chanos vs jim rogers...hmmm.... Here is a good article that suitably summarizes both position. China 2012: The Year of the Bull (Rogers) or the Bear (Chanos)? .

anyways, here is Chanos Crash: Timing China’s Financial Meltdown

--skynet



Quoting shomari
T.......
Check it out guys. let me pose a question, but first, let's start with some background. In 2007 the housing bubble in the US market, began to show signs of weakness, after that, we have the EU financial crisis (fueled , of course, by the bad US assets), andgoing strong. W had the gobal "tach bubble" burst, and all o fit's ramifications, NOW Gentlemen... the question I pose to you is ......

What if China, not a slice of it, not just a sector in the country, but what if CHINA ITSELF, is one BIG BUBBLE ??!!!!

Do you get me...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,337
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:38am Jul 15, 2012 8:38am
4 rexx..excellent breakdown of COT report. nicely done.

you've dropped some nice knowledge at this thread...from correlation analysis to COT report interpretation...you will get a vouch from me.

keep up the good work, sir.

--skynet.
.



Quoting 4rexx
You will see below the 2 most recent COT Reports 3 & 7 July 2012 for the EURO FX Futures contracts. The focus here is on two main areas 1. The Non-commercial's (large speculators) long or short contract numbers, 2. The Open interest for EURO Futures. To find out if they are overall net long or short in the EURO futures market, we have to subtract the short positions from the long positions. If we get a negative number the non-comms are net short overall and a positive number means they are net long.

On both reports non-comms are holding overall...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,338
  • Jul 15, 2012 10:30am Jul 15, 2012 10:30am
GBPCHF looks interesting to me. Here's what my chart looks like.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7.15.12 GBPCHF Weekly Outlook.png Size: 27 KB
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #11,339
  • Jul 15, 2012 1:35pm Jul 15, 2012 1:35pm
Guys , is anyone making some pips based on all this fundamental data? I just cannot get my head all over this stuff.
it seems to me that price is the only thing that matters. it includes everything. IMHO this amount of information can simply paralyze trader's decision taking ability.
  • #11,340
  • Jul 15, 2012 1:42pm Jul 15, 2012 1:42pm
Quoting Holy Cow
Guys , is anyone making some pips based on all this fundamental data? I just cannot get my head all over this stuff.
it seems to me that price is the only thing that matters. it includes everything. IMHO this amount of information can simply paralyze trader's decision taking ability.
how long are you already trading? You think a first year medicine student won't be overwhelmed as well by all the information about the body, all different medical devices?

It takes years to be able to make sense of all this on a regular basis - like in any other profession.

No idea why people always think that they can trade within a couple of months or even years like a god.
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