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  • #181
  • Edited 1:06am Jul 7, 2012 12:54am | Edited 1:06am
Quoting uncleti88
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-T...e%25202012.jpg

Have you tried the commitments of traders report and see what the correlation is to the NASDAQ 100 futures?

The COT can be used to gauge the long term direction although using the COT does not guarantee that you will enter the trade at exactly the top/bottom but it does confirm the trend.
Nq is the speculative market it tend to lead ES. DJ is not the USA economy are only 30 stocks and they can be manipulated. Es are 500 stocks it's quite hard to manipulate 500 stocks.
Yes Uncleti but i saw this video http://emini-watch.com/free-stuff/co...nt-of-traders/
I think and i'm in agree is better the Pit contract because 1 there are less false signals 2 the NQ (symbol ND )is the big contract. Nq mini contract you have also the intraday traders.
Why don't you start a thread about how to read the cot report. How it works when commercials producers hedge and when commercials consumers buy. I'm still confused about it Larry and upperman books are good but i prefer Upperman his book is more clear and makes sense to me.
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  • #182
  • Jul 8, 2012 4:51am Jul 8, 2012 4:51am
Quoting Manekineko
Nq is the speculative market it tend to lead ES. DJ is not the USA economy are only 30 stocks and they can be manipulated. Es are 500 stocks it's quite hard to manipulate 500 stocks.
Yes Uncleti but i saw this video http://emini-watch.com/free-stuff/co...nt-of-traders/
I think and i'm in agree is better the Pit contract because 1 there are less false signals 2 the NQ (symbol ND )is the big contract. Nq mini contract you have also the intraday traders.
Why don't you start a thread about how to read the cot report. How it works...
Thanks for your posts here Manekineko, however, it is important to point out a common misconception on the DJIA (the Dow Jones Index). It is NOT easy to manipulate, it has the 30 largest corporations in the USA which is the largest economy in the world. The only reason investors and traders alike prefer the SPX (S&P 500) to the DJIA is because it gives a better generalized view of the market as a whole, instead of focusing on the largest 30.
  • #183
  • Jul 8, 2012 9:24am Jul 8, 2012 9:24am
Heres one industry on fire, biotechnology. With these 2 stock in particular leading the industry ALXN being the rocket fuel behind the IBB engine.
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  • #184
  • Jul 9, 2012 11:19pm Jul 9, 2012 11:19pm
Today, I felt like posting something else, something different for a change. Usually I post bullish charts on stocks that out perform, the example below is of what happens when a company files for Chapter 11 (bankruptcy). All I can say is Ouch!!! I remember looking at it back when it was at $29.00 in 2011, as of yesterday the stock closed at $0.61.
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  • #185
  • Jul 13, 2012 6:15am Jul 13, 2012 6:15am
Quoting split_unit
Today, I felt like posting something else, something different for a change. Usually I post bullish charts on stocks that out perform, the example below is of what happens when a company files for Chapter 11 (bankruptcy). All I can say is Ouch!!! I remember looking at it back when it was at $29.00 in 2011, as of yesterday the stock closed at $0.61.
Here is something unique for the open minded. Distressed debt investing, a field in finance that not everyone understands. I have an MSc in Finance and I still find this stuff complicated, and by that being said, distressed debt is an excellent form of investment. Below is a good post on PCX by an expert in the field.

http://www.distressed-debt-investing...ankruptcy.html

http://www.distressed-debt-investing...den-value.html

As of invesopedia distressed debt is:

Definition of 'Distressed Securities'
A financial instrument in a company that is near or is currently going through bankruptcy. This usually results from a company's inability to meet its financial obligations. As a result, these financial instruments have suffered a substantial reduction in value. Distressed securities can include common and preferred shares, bank debt, trade claims (goods owed) and corporate bonds.

Investopedia explains 'Distressed Securities'
Due to their reduction in value, distressed securities often become attractive to investors who are looking for a bargain and are willing to accept a risk. Because most of the time these companies end up filing for Chapter 11 or 7, there are substantial risks involved in investing in them. As a result of bankruptcy, equity (common shares) is rendered worthless so those who invest depressed securities look at more senior instruments such as bank debt, trade claims and bonds.


The logic behind this investment is that the company's situation is not as bad as the market believes it to be and either the company will survive or there will be enough money upon liquidation to cover the original investment.
  • #186
  • Jul 13, 2012 7:20am Jul 13, 2012 7:20am
Quoting split_unit
Today, I felt like posting something else, something different for a change. Usually I post bullish charts on stocks that out perform, the example below is of what happens when a company files for Chapter 11 (bankruptcy). All I can say is Ouch!!! I remember looking at it back when it was at $29.00 in 2011, as of yesterday the stock closed at $0.61.
one more proof for the importance of stops ...
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #187
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:13am Jul 13, 2012 9:13am
Quoting aserbfx
one more proof for the importance of stops ...
Yes Sir, your spot on. Without stops you would have been wiped out trading PCX. Thanks for passing by.
  • #188
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:49am Jul 13, 2012 10:49am
nice breakout on ip
also check the pullback after the breakout on M5. good place for an entry.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #189
  • Jul 13, 2012 3:02pm Jul 13, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting aserbfx
nice breakout on ip
also check the pullback after the breakout on M5. good place for an entry.
Your move in IP was a text book breakout Sir, and for several reasons which made the breakout an excellent day trading opportunity. Here are some of the reasons why:

(Daily chart)

1- Notice the daily chart, resistance was tested 6 times. Anything over 2 times tested is alot for equities. Things usually break after a third try.

2- Volume was building up prior to the breakout for two days where bulls were in full control, especially on yesterdays price action where the stock opened way below the day before yesterdays high to close above it. Some serious buying took place.

3- I like it when resistance is at clear round numbers 00,.25,.50 and this resistance was at 30.25 (blue line).

(2 minute chart)

1- The pause, pullback, consolidation, bull flag or what ever you want to call it was right above the key 30.25 level where it held at previous resistance to become support.

2- The pull back retraced almost 50% of the opening move which is a good sign, anything over 50% retracement isn't too bullish in my books.

3- The higher low before the breakout was a very good indication that things would blow right past the 30.60 level if tested for the third time.

4- if time and sales (the tape) was watch in conjunction with the 2 minutes, it would have given huge clues to who was in control of the bids and offers which is an invaluable skill when trading patterns like these.

And there you have it, my 2 cents.
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  • #190
  • Edited Jul 14, 2012 2:29am Jul 13, 2012 3:23pm | Edited Jul 14, 2012 2:29am
Here is one stock I have been watching for a while fundamentally and technically. Fundamentally, PSX is a special situation stock. It is a spinoff off the mighty COP (ConocoPhillips). Which spun off PSX to show its real value, I wont get into the thick details here, you can check them out for yourself here while finding PSX's fundamentals here. Anyways, back to technicals, price is finally back at resistance after making several higher lows and is about to breakout into new higher territory. Order flow is tailwind in this stock which means that its bullish. a breakout above 35.00 in the coming days could prove to be a nice swing trade.
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  • #191
  • Jul 14, 2012 1:52am Jul 14, 2012 1:52am
Looks like it is breaking , yet coming up on resistance,
I would be very interested to see a view / chart - of FXCM stock since the IPO!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #192
  • Jul 14, 2012 1:55am Jul 14, 2012 1:55am
If it looks good - technically based I might buy on pullback expecing a break of resistance.

Once the resistance is capped I would let it ride!

But I don't know much about individual stocks....

Quoting split_unit
Here is one stock I have been watching for a while fundamentally and technically. Fundamentally, PSX is a special situation stock. It is a spinoff off the might COP (ConocoPhillips). Which spun off PSX to show its real value, I wont get into the thick details here, you can check them out for yourself here while finding PSX's fundamentals here....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #193
  • Jul 14, 2012 2:52am Jul 14, 2012 2:52am
Quoting XTrade
If it looks good - technically based I might buy on pullback expecing a break of resistance.

Once the resistance is capped I would let it ride!

But I don't know much about individual stocks....
Your play would most probably work. There's nothing to individual stocks that is difficult, and especially not to experienced traders. You only have to keep an eye on catalysts (I can leave these for a different post) and they are very tradeable and yield superb returns. There is always something moving in the individual stock arena and its usually not hard identify.The Stock market for investors is almost never right (inefficient) there is always a mis-pricing somewhere and once identified, amazing things can happen.

I would full heartedly advice anyone to trade stocks in the NYSE and NASDAQ (about 7000 stocks) given the proper foundation of how stocks trade in that realm. It is not as difficult as most people think. If you never try you will never understand, and that's why I am here to encourage people to explore other un-tapped riches. I also only traded the FX market exclusively prior to being mentored on equities which I now trade exclusively.

I don't advice to day-trade stocks through a broker that doesn't offer direct access to the exchanges for several reasons:

1- You don't get to read the tape (time and sales) which is an art that needs screen time. Try esignal for their free 1 month subscription and check out what time and sales looks like for a liquid stock in the S&P 500. If people were interested, I would write another post on how to read the tape.

2- Rebates, through being passive by offering to sell shares and bidding to buy shares you offer liquidity and earn a rebate for your efforts which significantly cuts costs.

3- Routing to the correct liquidity destinations also helps you get in and for a discount.

Non-direct access brokers route your orders to the destinations that are convenient to them, destinations that they make a profit from instead of you, and above that they charge you a commission for getting you in. Its their bread and butter at the end of the day.
  • #194
  • Jul 14, 2012 2:57am Jul 14, 2012 2:57am
Quoting XTrade
...

But I don't know much about individual stocks....
well, the question is: do we have to know anything about stocks, fx, commodities and so on?
or do we have to know about psychology? the key in trading... imho
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #195
  • Jul 14, 2012 3:07am Jul 14, 2012 3:07am
Quoting aserbfx
well, the question is: do we have to know anything about stocks, fx, commodities and so on?
or do we have to know about psychology? the key in trading... imho
You are right, however, trading without knowing the key fundamental drivers of any of those instruments is dangerous. A catalyst that has the potential to blow stocks out of the water are earnings. Not knowing when they are due, could severally hurt your account. You have to know what the big boys investors are doing, and their decisions are mostly based on fundamentals. You have to be aware of them to trade properly.
  • #196
  • Jul 14, 2012 3:28am Jul 14, 2012 3:28am
Quoting split_unit
Here is one stock I have been watching for a while fundamentally and technically. Fundamentally, PSX is a special situation stock. It is a spinoff off the mighty COP (ConocoPhillips). Which spun off PSX to show its real value, I wont get into the thick details here, you can check them out for yourself here while finding PSX's fundamentals here....
Berkshire Hathaway Buys Phillips 66 (PSX) Shares July 13 2012 (17 hours ago)

Warren Buffett this morning on Bloomberg TV said that his Berkshire Hathaway has invested in Phillips 66 (PSX).

PSX was spun-off from ConocoPhillips (COP) on May 1st and Buffett said one of his portfolio managers (either Todd Combs or Ted Weschler) have reduced holdings in COP and bought into the refining operations ~ PSX.

Owners of COP shares received 1 share of PSX for every 2 shares of COP owned as of April 16th. Berkshire owned just over 29 million COP shares as of March 31st (before the spin-off). Assuming that number, that would mean they received just over 14.5 million shares of PSX in the spin.

But it sounds like they've gone a step further by selling some of their post-spin COP shares and adding to their PSX stake.

Incredible coincidence lol, Buffet also seems to interested in the same stock
  • #197
  • Jul 14, 2012 4:28am Jul 14, 2012 4:28am
Quoting split_unit
Berkshire Hathaway Buys Phillips 66 (PSX) Shares July 13 2012 (17 hours ago)

[i]Warren Buffett this morning on Bloomberg TV said that his Berkshire Hathaway has invested in Phillips 66 (PSX).

PSX was spun-off from ConocoPhillips (COP) on May 1st and Buffett said one of his portfolio managers (either Todd Combs or Ted Weschler) have reduced holdings in COP and bought into the refining operations ~ PSX.

Owners of COP shares received 1 share of PSX for every 2 shares of COP owned as of April 16th. Berkshire owned just over 29 million COP...
If I may add, the article above is a catalyst, PSX should break above its key level and head north now.
  • #198
  • Jul 16, 2012 10:25am Jul 16, 2012 10:25am
Quoting split_unit
If I may add, the article above is a catalyst, PSX should break above its key level and head north now.
As mentioned above, PSX has now broken out.
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  • #199
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:26am Jul 16, 2012 11:26am
Hey Split, you have a really nice thread here!! I am learning a lot of good things from you!!

Soon I will post some questions I have when I finish reading the whole thread.

Greg.
  • #200
  • Jul 16, 2012 1:18pm Jul 16, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting gregofx
Hey Split, you have a really nice thread here!! I am learning a lot of good things from you!!

Soon I will post some questions I have when I finish reading the whole thread.

Greg.
Hi Greg,

Welcome back to the thread, feel free to ask me any questions whether here or through a pm. My thread isn't the easiest thread on FF to read and especially to traders who are unfamiliar with equities and who aren't strong in TA. My TA concepts haven't changed, but if you move forward through the thread, you will notice that I started to incorporate FA along with TA. I also intend on including my latest work on quantitative analysis on equities going forward. It's pretty cool stuff.
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