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EURUSD

  • #668,281
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:52am Jul 13, 2012 9:52am
woke up -5
it went below 2180 and that voided my trade risk.. the pair always has memory of where it wanted to go. 2249 was hit after the -50% area of the original move acted as support. the target for 2136 and 2126 still remain (2333 will void them). 2132 may be a big support. that could put 25xx/2624 in play. the indicated move to 2136 usually touches 2284 more times then not before 2136.. i still would like to short at/near 2328.5.. w/o going above 2333.. sos from earlier in the week.

atm i do have a s signal, but i will not take it
Friday and shit happens Attached Thumbnails http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1342190190
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #668,282
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:52am Jul 13, 2012 9:52am
Quoting KillerWhale
Reason is that this up swing was long expected and overdue. It might go higher.
But we're in a down trend and a trend is very difficult to break.
We've seen lower lows several times this week, that tells you we're not done with the down trend.
The ideal end of this down trend is a double bottom and a retest but I don't see that happen at the moment.
I do believe we will see support @ 1.18xx and maybe 1.16xx.

Let's see where is goes.

Either way is good, down market is good for my trading but bad for my 401K.
Up market is good for my 401K and I can adjust my trading to make it good.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #668,283
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:56am Jul 13, 2012 9:56am
Quoting gatorinla
woke up -5
it went below 2180 and that voided my trade risk.. the pair always has memory of where it wanted to go. 2249 was hit after the -50% area of the original move acted as support. the target for 2136 and 2126 still remain (2333 will void them). 2132 may be a big support. that could put 25xx/2624 in play. the indicated move to 2136 usually touches 2284 more times then not before 2136.. i still would like to short at/near 2328.5.. w/o going above 2333.. sos from earlier in the week.

atm i do have a s signal, but...
dont worry I took that one..

and I agree with your targets
  • #668,284
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:00am Jul 13, 2012 10:00am
Quoting KillerWhale
The ideal end of this down trend is a double bottom and a retest but I don't see that happen at the moment.
I do believe we will see support @ 1.18xx and maybe 1.16xx.

Let's see where is goes.

Either way is good, down market is good for my trading but bad for my 401K.
Up market is good for my 401K and I can adjust my trading to make it good.
A simple question:

Let's assume that it will go 1,18 and it will make a double bottom there. The question is now where to take the short positions to get some profits. Do you think that taking shorts whenever it reaches certain resistance points without closing any other shorts is a good idea? I mean adding up till let say 1,28 (I have just made up the number).
  • #668,285
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:00am Jul 13, 2012 10:00am
looking for a quick short if things stay below the red line @ 12255-ish on the hourly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #668,286
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:08am Jul 13, 2012 10:08am
Quoting gatorinla
woke up -5
it went below 2180 and that voided my trade risk.. the pair always has memory of where it wanted to go. 2249 was hit after the -50% area of the original move acted as support. the target for 2136 and 2126 still remain (2333 will void them). 2132 may be a big support. that could put 25xx/2624 in play. the indicated move to 2136 usually touches 2284 more times then not before 2136.. i still would like to short at/near 2328.5.. w/o going above 2333.. sos from earlier in the week.

atm i do have a s signal, but i...
the trend is down.. that signal is usually good for 40 pips min.. from the high that's 2213.. but its Friday.. shit happens..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #668,287
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:10am Jul 13, 2012 10:10am
Quoting KillerWhale
The ideal end of this down trend is a double bottom and a retest but I don't see that happen at the moment.
I do believe we will see support @ 1.18xx and maybe 1.16xx.

Let's see where is goes.

Either way is good, down market is good for my trading but bad for my 401K.
Up market is good for my 401K and I can adjust my trading to make it good.
Like your thinking, looking at the charts the same way. This looks like it will go lower next week IMO. No really good news out of Europe except the Italian bond auction (which wasnt really that good anyways), and dont see the politicians getting anything done by next Friday. Lower we go.
  • #668,288
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:27am Jul 13, 2012 10:27am
Quoting Petiedawgs
Like your thinking, looking at the charts the same way. This looks like it will go lower next week IMO. No really good news out of Europe except the Italian bond auction (which wasnt really that good anyways), and dont see the politicians getting anything done by next Friday. Lower we go.
you may be right.. go look at you charts and find .8227? on the eu chart. then find the high.. whats is the middle. when we get to the middle, what happens more times then not?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #668,289
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:29am Jul 13, 2012 10:29am
Quoting gatorinla
the trend is down.. that signal is usually good for 40 pips min.. from the high that's 2213.. but its Friday.. shit happens..
For as long as those spikes are triggered by stops or some opportunistic positions the trend is down.

Now when the rallies start to be more consistent than we may have a trend change.

I still see down pressure but nothing goes in a straight line. right.
  • #668,290
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:37am Jul 13, 2012 10:37am
Quoting QuadrupleX
For as long as those spikes are triggered by stops or some opportunistic positions the trend is down.

Now when the rallies start to be more consistent than we may have a trend change.

I still see down pressure but nothing goes in a straight line. right.
I read more on technical analysis so I'm not an expert on fundamentals but I think the Euro may have gone from focusing on "will the Fed do quantitative easing" to "risk on, risk off" mode. I'm inclined to think positive U.S. bank results may have triggered the huge S&P500 spike which may have in turn led to the spike in the Euro (i.e., selling the "safe-haven U.S. dollar" and investing in the risky Euro).
  • #668,291
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:37am Jul 13, 2012 10:37am
Quoting gatorinla
you may be right.. go look at you charts and find .8227? on the eu chart. then find the high.. whats is the middle. when we get to the middle, what happens more times then not?


Goes up 1/2 the distance to the Top.


Nice one Gator - I like posts that make you think!
  • #668,292
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:38am Jul 13, 2012 10:38am
Quoting QuadrupleX
For as long as those spikes are triggered by stops or some opportunistic positions the trend is down.

Now when the rallies start to be more consistent than we may have a trend change.

I still see down pressure but nothing goes in a straight line. right.
the trend is down. and a target 0.8xx w/o the euro dissolving. much lower before, if they do break up. so i would buy near the middle. these mids have power even 100 plus pips away. and look to have a holding short from higher. i had one i closed last week. going to 25xx or 2624 is nothing in the bigger scheme. i will still short with tight stops where pa indicates i can like 2328.5/2632
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #668,293
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:49am Jul 13, 2012 10:49am
ausm week, made some brilliant trades and i am very happy wwith the results, cant wait for next week, but any ways now its time for refreshment, see you on monday.
No place for mistakes
  • #668,294
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:49am Jul 13, 2012 10:49am
Quoting almo
Goes up 1/2 the distance to the Top.


Nice one Gator - I like posts that make you think!
it dont hurt to cut these charts up and look for something that happens after something else happens. if you can find something like that works 50% of the time, bottle it. then add a candle formation or a indi or something else to tweak it. you have a good system then to build on. listening to others here including me, will get you broke. you have to find what works for you. just believing we are going lower alone will get you broke unless your ridding one down from long ago.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #668,295
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:52am Jul 13, 2012 10:52am
This looks like a retracement and it could first go to 1.2290, 1.2320 (not necessary today).
  • #668,296
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:57am Jul 13, 2012 10:57am
Quoting gatorinla
woke up -5
it went below 2180 and that voided my trade risk.. the pair always has memory of where it wanted to go. 2249 was hit after the -50% area of the original move acted as support. the target for 2136 and 2126 still remain (2333 will void them). 2132 may be a big support. that could put 25xx/2624 in play. the indicated move to 2136 usually touches 2284 more times then not before 2136.. i still would like to short at/near 2328.5.. w/o going above 2333.. sos from earlier in the week.

atm i do have a s signal, but i...



Hey Gator, could you please share your MOFU indicator ?

THX.
  • #668,297
  • Jul 13, 2012 11:15am Jul 13, 2012 11:15am
Quoting mercy seat
UPDATE:



Quick-Tips in a TABLE SURVEY for the EUR/USD:

1.)

On a daily basis:

2012-07-13_00h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rollover _ W-28 # AZ1 (Text EN)

This is based on latest Rollover-Open ...

23h00 CET Aufdatung ...











;-|

Highest been aprox. 1.2257 until now ...

Represents our Res2 on Écart row basis ...

Lowest been aprox. 1.2163 until now ...

Represents our Sup1 on Pivotal row basis ..





;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #668,298
  • Jul 13, 2012 11:32am Jul 13, 2012 11:32am
Quoting Petiedawgs
Like your thinking, looking at the charts the same way. This looks like it will go lower next week IMO. No really good news out of Europe except the Italian bond auction (which wasnt really that good anyways), and dont see the politicians getting anything done by next Friday. Lower we go.
I'm looking closely at the stock market because I want to sell a bunch of ADP stock. All bought with company discount between $35 and $37 per share.
I don't think it will go much higher at this moment and I will invest the proceeds in FX.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #668,299
  • Jul 13, 2012 11:49am Jul 13, 2012 11:49am
Last time I saw this type of configuration the spike retraced 50% 22081 around the hourly 14 EMA and the top of those highs we just smashed out of. And then it try to retrace up to 68% of the whole down move from the 29th. The retrace I been trying to catch since Monday!
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #668,300
  • Jul 13, 2012 12:02pm Jul 13, 2012 12:02pm
I'm out for the day cought that move up and did a profit of 18% so I'm very happy
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