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Symphonie Trader System

  • #14,561
  • Jul 13, 2012 4:38am Jul 13, 2012 4:38am
Since I promised not to post new articles alittle bird informs me that USA Central Bank evaluations of EURUSD have come out....

The little bird (USA FED) said the true rate of return on the EURUSD should be 1.20...(FED True Markt valuation report)

Not much press on this but that should put additional pressure on the EURUSD to drop to the 1.21500 to 1.20500 range. My guess? This happens today.

Evaluator.:nerd:
  • #14,562
  • Jul 13, 2012 4:41am Jul 13, 2012 4:41am
Quoting jurn_e
EURUSD

1.2150 still looks yummy.
Hope so. In off the latest 5min signal...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU1M130712.GIF Size: 18 KB
  • #14,563
  • Jul 13, 2012 4:45am Jul 13, 2012 4:45am
Quoting Evaluator
This is an excellent reason why I like to post news events and talk about external events that have influence in the markt. Today is Italian bond auction...if it goes well....as it appears to have from all news reports there will be a temporary rise in the EURUSD. Why? Simple. Then governments sell bonds they remove Euros from the markt and therefore less Euros in the markt means less supply and less supply a means a high price will be paid for Euros...so you will have a temporary bounce.

So, Italy sells 2015 bonds at a lower interest rate...

if you were thinking of stopping your analysis and inputs... i don't think you should... i understood where some of the others were coming from about how elliott and you patterns may confuse some new members in here...

but i think overall if you really went through the pages and observe all the styles of how symphonie is used to compliment the different traders in here you would know to ignore or take your analysis into consideration...

so if you can definitely keep posting your take on the market... it really is helping me overall in understand the market.. after all the market makers trade a certain way as well and if you can get as close as you can to moving when they move using symphonie to capitalize then more pips ....
  • #14,564
  • Jul 13, 2012 4:55am Jul 13, 2012 4:55am
Quoting roobii
hey eval are you watching this pattern setting up.... the upward channel within the snr zone i have marked in blue....

what's your overall take with what you are seeing??
That's a bear channel (the red rising channel at the bottom of a downtrend) and it gives 2 possible trade options later on:

1) play short when the price gets near the top of the red channel, especially when we near the long term trendline (red line) around 1.2220 if/when you get a Symphonie short signal (but be careful because by then, M15/M30 could be set up for a Long, so wait until M15 at least goes short and enter on the following M5 signal if you want need extra confirmation). If this trade works out, then you have the possibility of many more pips if/when the price breaks down through to base of the red channel.

2) be ready to cover your shorts and go long if we Close above the long term red trendline on H1. The best strategy would be to wait for a re-test of the trendline+channel after the break up and take the next M5 signal Long.

Also keep in mind the bullish divergence on the longer timeframe (H4) highlighted by RJ earlier on (this could help the Long setup).

Oli
  • #14,565
  • Jul 13, 2012 5:07am Jul 13, 2012 5:07am
Quoting Evaluator
Since I promised not to post new articles alittle bird informs me that USA Central Bank evaluations of EURUSD have come out....

The little bird (USA FED) said the true rate of return on the EURUSD should be 1.20...(FED True Markt valuation report)

Not much press on this but that should put additional pressure on the EURUSD to drop to the 1.21500 to 1.20500 range. My guess? This happens today.

Evaluator.:nerd:
It's your thread really (at least as the originator) so please post whatever you like, I say...

Oli
  • #14,566
  • Jul 13, 2012 5:08am Jul 13, 2012 5:08am
Quoting olivierforex
That's a bear channel (the red rising channel at the bottom of a downtrend) and it gives 2 possible trade options later on:

1) play short when the price gets near the top of the red channel, especially when we near the long term trendline (red line) around 1.2220 if/when you get a Symphonie short signal (but be careful because by then, M15/M30 could be set up for a Long, so wait until M15 at least goes short and enter on the following M5 signal if you want need extra confirmation). If this trade works out, then you have the possibility...

Yes the EURUSD is most definitely in a bearisch decent. As to pattern recognition....remember post #14506?? Look at the corrective wave chart and then compare it to the 60 min EURUSD chart....What do you see?

I see a nice Bearisch Expand Triangle (bottom right) on the chart because this wave structure is most definitely corrective. That tells me the Italian bond auction sugar rush was the ''e'' wave and now I look to take the next Symphonie Sell signal at that point.

As I said before.....Pattern Recognition and Symphonie are a deadly combination.

Yes...I know RealJumper there are lots and lots of pattern but knowing the basics and being able to see them is most helpful....(atleast to me)

Evaluator.:nerd:
  • #14,567
  • Jul 13, 2012 5:09am Jul 13, 2012 5:09am
Quoting olivierforex
It's your thread really (at least as the originator) so please post whatever you like, I say...

Oli

True.... but I have great respect for Olivia and many others and I will respect their wishes.
  • #14,568
  • Jul 13, 2012 5:26am Jul 13, 2012 5:26am
I sold....did you???? (very small order because below 1.2200) I could not help myself...I am Greedy....

Evaluator.:nerd:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Symphonie Screenshot 328.jpg Size: 131 KB
  • #14,569
  • Jul 13, 2012 5:33am Jul 13, 2012 5:33am
Quoting sidefx
Hope so. In off the latest 5min signal...
Not enough momentum so exited for b/e. Rubbish decision to enter right into the congestion zone
  • #14,570
  • Jul 13, 2012 5:34am Jul 13, 2012 5:34am
Will trade the bounce if this doesnt drop.
Looking at M15 sym
Pivot Boss in the making~
  • #14,571
  • Jul 13, 2012 5:35am Jul 13, 2012 5:35am
Quoting Evaluator
I sold....did you???? (very small order because below 1.2200) I could not help myself...I am Greedy....

Evaluator.:nerd:
No -

I only would if the H1 TVI was red, and it was not.
I can wait, patience pays more often than not.
  • #14,572
  • Jul 13, 2012 5:39am Jul 13, 2012 5:39am
Quoting roobii
if you were thinking of stopping your analysis and inputs... i don't think you should... i understood where some of the others were coming from about how elliott and you patterns may confuse some new members in here...

but i think overall if you really went through the pages and observe all the styles of how symphonie is used to compliment the different traders in here you would know to ignore or take your analysis into consideration...

so if you can definitely keep posting your take on the market... it really is helping me overall in understand...
The interesting thing about fundamental analysis is that a great many professional analysts who have sources of information that NO ONE on FF has access to, all present compelling sounding analysis to support their *bias* of what's going to happen next. For every analyst that says we are on the brink of the cliff and we are headed down big time, I'll find you another who can present a case equally compelling as to why a reversal is imminent. It's all bollocks.

What you see on your chart is REAL........trade it.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #14,573
  • Edited 6:22am Jul 13, 2012 5:41am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting CandleStar
No -

I only would if the H1 TVI was red, and it was not.
I can wait, patience pays more often than not.




UPDATE; 15 pips so far as EURUSD seems to be breaking down.....
  • #14,574
  • Jul 13, 2012 5:50am Jul 13, 2012 5:50am
Per the rules, I went short after seeing the Symphony Matrix display line up with all four reds.

I then exited at the close of three extreme blues in a row.
  • #14,575
  • Edited 6:10am Jul 13, 2012 5:56am | Edited 6:10am
I would like to make one observation to the group concerning Symphonie Matrix.

I have been testing the indikators and after a month of observation I have come to the same conclusion on TVI as I have for the old Cycle Indikator (i.e. Symphonie Extreme)

This is not about repaint it is about the change in the Extreme value. Over the past month I have played with different exit conditions for extreme of exit on the first extreme change versus the 4 bar of extreme change.

I have come to the conclusion that the new Extreme Indikator and Old Extreme Indikator one has the potential to increase their pips per trade if one waits until the 4 bar of extreme change versus exit at the first bar.

Why? because the amount of change between the first bar of extreme change and the 4th over 50 trade was a average difference of 2 pips. However, waiting on the 4th bar of extreme change versus exit on 1st increases a longer time an order stays in a trade and on average increased your per pip profit by an additional 12 pips per order versus exit and reentry on a return to direktion.

Therefore, it is my recommendation that when you execute an order using Symphonie.... exit on the close of the 4th bar of extreme change per Exit Strategy 1&2 versus exiting on the 1st bar of extreme change. I think you will find that you stay in a trade longer making more pips and you do not have to go though additional stress of order reentry.

Happy Pipping....

Evaluator.:nerd:
  • #14,576
  • Jul 13, 2012 6:12am Jul 13, 2012 6:12am
... and now I was short like you Eval.

H1 TVI was red and I had a classic bearish divergence.

Made my 10 pips on each account for today.
Does not sound much but they are mine -
  • #14,577
  • Jul 13, 2012 6:13am Jul 13, 2012 6:13am
Quoting realjumper
What you see on your chart is REAL........trade it.
Hey RJ,
You're right: for every 'fundamental' situations I can usually find as many reasons why any piece of news should be long or short and I can find as many commentators/pundits/experts on both sides of the argument so I generally dismiss most of it. For a new trader, incorporating news events/data releases in your trading will only confuse you more every time you're about to pull the trigger to enter a trade.

Also, most of these commentators/experts/pundits can have a 'hidden' agenda: let's say that you are Long Euro (or your wife/friend) and you're offered a 5 minutes slot on cnbc/bloomberg where you can discuss the Euro situation....well, you would be a fool not to talk about all the positives that you see in the current situation and you would dismiss all the bad stuff (and if enough people listen to your 'wisdom', they buy bthe euro, euro goes up, you can sell your position at a nice profit , job done).

Yes by all means, via FF calendar keep an eye on forthcoming data releases that might whipsaw you out of position but my view is that, excluding big 'game-changer' news, all the data is already in the charts .(I am talking about longer term time frames than Symphonie here - H4, Daily..)
  • #14,578
  • Jul 13, 2012 6:24am Jul 13, 2012 6:24am
Quoting CandleStar
... and now I was short like you Eval.

H1 TVI was red and I had a classic bearish divergence.

Made my 10 pips on each account for today.
Does not sound much but they are mine -

Excellent Candlestar!!!

10 pips a day consistantly is all one needs to make it ....it is the low stress way to success....

Evaluator.:nerd:
  • #14,579
  • Jul 13, 2012 6:28am Jul 13, 2012 6:28am
Quoting olivierforex
Hey RJ,
You're right: for every 'fundamental' situations I can usually find as many reasons why any piece of news should be long or short and I can find as many commentators/pundits/experts on both sides of the argument so I generally dismiss most of it. For a new trader, incorporating news events/data releases in your trading will only confuse you more every time you're about to pull the trigger to enter a trade.

Also, most of these commentators/experts/pundits can have a 'hidden' agenda: let's say that you are Long Euro (or your wife/friend)...
Dead right Oli.....apart from the big news releases, everything is in the charts. Even the news releases sometimes find their way onto the charts 10 minutes before the news!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #14,580
  • Jul 13, 2012 6:29am Jul 13, 2012 6:29am
Evaluator

On which time frame should we wait for 4th bar to change, say we use 60-5, will it be bar 4 on 5m or 1h.

I am sorry you are not posting news any more, just like with trading you have much more experience as what to look for in news events. Also fundamentals are the drivers of the market, sadly silly politicians etc make us lose unexpectingly.
Vandag is die dag.....
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