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  • #61
  • Mar 5, 2012 12:56am Mar 5, 2012 12:56am
My team does but I'm just offering up my thoughts on Euro at this time mainly as a way to record my thoughts. Most likely I will switch to AUD or JPY sometime this month as both offer a little more interesting views.

AUD due to it's dynamic with China and metals exporting. I'd be looking on identifying the beginning of the slide.

JPY as it's where the action is right now. Don't be fooled by it's current rate of weakness, Japan is rebuilding thus they need to borrow and import. Deficits will increase in the mid-term but once rebuilt a return to a current account surplus and consequent strength is what I predict.

Quoting Cerber.bf2
Thanks for mentioning about tickers. Also, nice insight. Do you just do Euro? I'd like to hear some thoughts on yen at the moment..

cheers
  • #62
  • Mar 5, 2012 9:58am Mar 5, 2012 9:58am
Quoting Verb
My team does but I'm just offering up my thoughts on Euro at this time mainly as a way to record my thoughts. Most likely I will switch to AUD or JPY sometime this month as both offer a little more interesting views.

AUD due to it's dynamic with China and metals exporting. I'd be looking on identifying the beginning of the slide.

JPY as it's where the action is right now. Don't be fooled by it's current rate of weakness, Japan is rebuilding thus they need to borrow and import. Deficits will increase in the mid-term but once rebuilt a return...
Go go Geppy...?
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #63
  • Mar 5, 2012 7:11pm Mar 5, 2012 7:11pm
I could look into GBP, might be interesting based on rumors of a rate hike.

Quoting 45Condor
Go go Geppy...?
  • #64
  • Mar 6, 2012 8:12pm Mar 6, 2012 8:12pm
Outcome:
Optimism rallies after good retail sales into the NY session, positive US news rallies for a short period leading to consolidation and perfect setup for short positioning.

Quoting Verb
03-05-2012 – EURUSD London to NY Session - #07

Market Analysis: Euro
Future Indices:
While the indices are pointing to a mixed picture, the market favors bearish sentiment. Equity levels are very high right now with the S&P and Dow at equally high levels will make it difficult to push higher. Dollar strength is up as well which I anticipate will continue this week but wont last as the presidential election looms and a strong dollar does not support high equity levels.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Indexes.jpg

Commodities...
  • #65
  • Mar 6, 2012 8:37pm Mar 6, 2012 8:37pm
03-07-2012 – EURUSD London to NY Session - #08

Market Analysis: Euro
Future Indices: futures are down across the board, expect to see continued bearish sentiment as investors are not comfortable with buying highs and are likely taking some profit off the table. Dollar strength is just starting to show signs of consolidation however and on the back of positive NFP news upcoming, we could see optimism come back.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Indexes.jpg

Commodities (Gold, Oil):
Gold up again slightly but its coming off of a tremendous slide from a stronger dollar. We're going to need to see some negative dollar news to drive Gold up convincingly to counteract Australia's weaker GDP numbers and China's reduced growth estimates. That should drive risk aversion with the effect of driving gold back up. Oil is in the same state but for mixed reasons, Iran could agree to nuclear inspections and on the other hand we have the threat of Israel and the US making united noise against Iran nuclear weapons. With gold and oil prices falling from last week, we are set for higher equity prices once risk-appetite is restored.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...omm-Metals.jpg

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...1-Comm-Oil.jpg

News:
It's NFP week of course and in anticipation, the ADP report comes out today and should shake the market in a direction leading to a leaning consolidation into the NFP. Germany's Factory Orders on the docket for the Euro and I think this is really important given Germany is seen as anchoring the Euro, this could shed light that the Germans are not doing quite as good as people hope. If it's positive, that should be enough to prop the currency.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...12-01-News.jpg

What Could Happen?
We should see more declines at the equities open as futures weigh down the Euro but we need to keep an eye on Germany's Factory Orders. If we get positive news that could be enough to trigger a rally to be sustained into NY where we will most likely see consolidation until the ADP report.

What Could We Do?
With so many conflicting signals, the sentiment is overall still bearish however with risk events like ADP and NFP, I'll be looking to tighten up stops on shorts other than get into new positions.
  • #66
  • Mar 7, 2012 9:53pm Mar 7, 2012 9:53pm
Outcome:
Lower than expected German factory orders and lower equity prices as expected drove the risk-off mentality through the London session and declines in the Euro. No consolidation but a snap back to optimism at the NY open as positive US news rallied the Euro but still not enough to get my long-term bias to bullish on Euro.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Outcome.jpg


Quoting Verb
03-07-2012 – EURUSD London to NY Session - #08

Market Analysis: Euro
Future Indices: futures are down across the board, expect to see continued bearish sentiment as investors are not comfortable with buying highs and are likely taking some profit off the table. Dollar strength is just starting to show signs of consolidation however and on the back of positive NFP news upcoming, we could see optimism come back.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Indexes.jpg

Commodities (Gold, Oil):
Gold...
  • #67
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:31pm Mar 7, 2012 10:31pm
03-08-2012 – EURUSD London to NY Session - #09

Market Analysis: Euro
Future Indices:
Futures are up as optimism builds from Greek bond holders agreeing to debt swap and positive US news. Risk-on tone as dollar weakens. Equity prices took their breather and there may be continuance in the equity bull market players.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Indexes.jpg

Commodities (Gold, Oil):
Gold and Oil both gaining while the USD index drops. Will need Oil to drop to continue risk appetite.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...omm-Metals.jpg

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...1-Comm-Oil.jpg

News:
Good US ADP report, Greek bond-holder agreements rising and a busy day of news coming should contribute to good volatility into the NFP report. My main risk events are the French, German production numbers and BOE rate statement. Good French data is key to continue the rally and flat numbers for Germany should be enough to continue a rally.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...12-01-News.jpg

What Could Happen?
Good USD news yesterday and Greek bond holder debt swap agreements rising is causing optimism and risk appetite at least in the short term. I'm anticipating a bullish rally at the London equities open consolidating until the BOE rate statement. I'm not expecting BOE to increase rates just yet, I think they will wait until Greek bond holder agreements meet the requirement. So risk-on in London to consolidation after BOE rate statement to risk-on again into NY open. USD Unemployment Claims is the big one to watch, I'm anticipating good numbers, so overall a bullish day with my long-term bias still being bearish.

What Could We Do?
You could play a long position off a demand level established by positive French news however if the news is negative then I would look to get long at the US Unemployment Claims if it's positive.
  • #68
  • Mar 8, 2012 7:41pm Mar 8, 2012 7:41pm
Outcome:
As expected a bullish day with positive news supporting optimism and risk on rally. Negative US Unemployment news caused a medium sized decline but wasn't enough to quash optimism. Longs were not wrong yesterday

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Outcome.jpg

Quoting Verb
03-08-2012 – EURUSD London to NY Session - #09

Market Analysis: Euro
Future Indices:
Futures are up as optimism builds from Greek bond holders agreeing to debt swap and positive US news. Risk-on tone as dollar weakens. Equity prices took their breather and there may be continuance in the equity bull market players.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Indexes.jpg

Commodities (Gold, Oil):
Gold and Oil both gaining while the USD index drops. Will need Oil to drop to continue risk appetite.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...omm-Metals.jpg

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...1-Comm-Oil.jpg

News:
Good...
  • #69
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:52am Mar 9, 2012 12:52am
Market Analysis: Euro
Future Indices:
Another day of higher futures equities, indicating bullishness.Dollar index is down as well.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Indexes.jpg

Commodities (Gold, Oil):
Gold and Oil rebounded while all markets rebounded versus the dollar.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...omm-Metals.jpg

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...1-Comm-Oil.jpg

News:
Only two things are going to really drive the market today. Continued optimism over the participation rate of Greek bond holder swaps and of course NFP.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...12-01-News.jpg


What Could Happen?
I'm expecting a range to consolidation until NFP and then volatility should enter as it normally does establishing a trend for the month. I'm anticipating positive NFP numbers which would be a green light for additional risk-appetite. If risk appetite increases this could be the beginning of a bullish bias for the next couple months.

What Could We Do?
I would trade NFP after a retrace in the direction of the impulse.
  • #70
  • Mar 11, 2012 10:17pm Mar 11, 2012 10:17pm
Outcome:
Positive NFP numbers did not translate to risk appetite, this was a case of buy the rumor, sell the fact. Euro gave back all it's gain from the previous day. Correlation did not hold up and served to expose the Euro's weakness. Admittedly I got caught up in the optimism even though I still maintain a bearish sentiment on the Euro.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Outcome.jpg



Quoting Verb
Market Analysis: Euro
Future Indices:
Another day of higher futures equities, indicating bullishness.Dollar index is down as well.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Indexes.jpg

Commodities (Gold, Oil):
Gold and Oil rebounded while all markets rebounded versus the dollar.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...omm-Metals.jpg

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...1-Comm-Oil.jpg

News:
Only two...
  • #71
  • Mar 11, 2012 10:51pm Mar 11, 2012 10:51pm
Market Analysis: Euro
Future Indices:
A mixed picture again as well as equities consolidating after all the optimism on Thursday going into NFP Friday. I'm not anticipating a bullish day for equities.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Indexes.jpg

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...02-Indexes.jpg

Commodities (Gold, Oil):
Gold strengthend after the NFP shock to close higher indicating risk aversion while Oil ranged and ended flat. Dollar index is up.


http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...omm-Metals.jpg

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...1-Comm-Oil.jpg

News:
Not much on the news docket today except for larger than normal trade deficit numbers out of china, bad news could leak into the Euro session.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...12-01-News.jpg


What Could Happen?
I'm expecting a widening range as bulls and bears find the equilibrium after the NFP results. Normally NFP positive numbers equates to risk on but with such a huge rally before NFP, it feels unlikely that the correlation will hold up into Monday's session without a catalyst.

What Could We Do?
Prudence dictates fading the range as it widens. I'll be looking to add shorts.
  • #72
  • Mar 12, 2012 3:17am Mar 12, 2012 3:17am
Quoting Verb
Market Analysis: Euro
Future Indices:
A mixed picture again as well as equities consolidating after all the optimism on Thursday going into NFP Friday. I'm not anticipating a bullish day for equities.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Indexes.jpg

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...02-Indexes.jpg

Commodities (Gold, Oil):
Gold strengthend after the NFP shock to close higher indicating risk aversion while Oil ranged and ended flat....
Thanks for input,
  • #73
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:42am Mar 13, 2012 1:42am
You're welcome. No analysis today guys, I'm busy with some other analysis.

Quoting Cerber.bf2
Thanks for input,
  • #74
  • Mar 18, 2012 9:08pm Mar 18, 2012 9:08pm
Market Analysis
Future Indices: futures are pointing north on optimism however I believe we are a bit overextended with of course amnesia over Greek and ancillary Euro debt.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...01-Indexes.jpg

Commodities: Gold rebounded towards the end of the week to balance the risk-on appetite. News indicates central banks have been buying Gold but this is really late news. Central banks have been diversifying treasuries for a LONG time and the recent dip in gold prices has allowed them to accumulate more thus putting their actions more in the spotlight. I anticipate we will see even more news regarding Gold buying as we march to $2000/oz price target.

Oil has made a move up which to me indicates that we will see a pullback in equities.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...omm-Metals.jpg

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...1-Comm-Oil.jpg

News: not much on the docket today except for earnings reports however FOMC has the potential to move the market. I'd look for rhetoric around pro-quantitative easing comments to drive rallies.

http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...12-01-News.jpg

What Could Happen?
We've seen a large rally in Euro on equities optimism unless we see a good retrace in the Asian session then I would expect a small rally at the London equities open leading to profit taking decline until good demand is found which could be all the way down somewhere around 1.31.

What Could We Do?
I'm looking to short the Euro on rally maintaining my bearish sentiment.
  • #75
  • Mar 18, 2012 9:17pm Mar 18, 2012 9:17pm
Outcome:
The range widened as expected with distribution leading to extended demand.
  • #76
  • Mar 20, 2012 11:13pm Mar 20, 2012 11:13pm
I have decided to close this thread as I'm working on the next version of Macro Economic Sentiment which applies a strength rating to a currency.

This next version is a study of current economics and their affect on short-term currency movements.

I will share my ratings later but here's a little taste of what it will look like:
http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...CAD-Week02.jpg

Cheers!
  • #77
  • Jul 12, 2012 9:13am Jul 12, 2012 9:13am
As promised, I have completed my project and will now be posting new material. I will start disclosing methods later but for now here's a trade I'm taking based on Market Sentiment.

Market sentiment: Overly Bullish
Signal: Sell Resistance
Pair: USDCAD
Reaction Level: 1.0255

http://i48.tinypic.com/fc1oa0.jpg

Be Brave.
  • #78
  • Edited 2:50am Jul 13, 2012 2:26am | Edited 2:50am
Outcome: market didn't hit my level but did drop as expected nicely for around 80.0 pips.

Quoting Verb
As promised, I have completed my project and will now be posting new material. I will start disclosing methods later but for now here's a trade I'm taking based on Market Sentiment.

Market sentiment: Overly Bullish
Signal: Sell Resistance
Pair: USDCAD
Reaction Level: 1.0255

http://i48.tinypic.com/fc1oa0.jpg

Be Brave.
  • #79
  • Edited 2:55am Jul 13, 2012 2:32am | Edited 2:55am
Market sentiment: Overly Bearish
Signal: Buy Support
Pair: GBPUSD
Reaction Level: 1.5387

Earlier this morning, China's GDP slowed more than expected to 7.6% yoy in Q2. That's the worst number in three years and compared with Q1's 8.1% yoy.

Looking ahead, Swiss combined PPI is expected to improve slightly to -2.2% yoy in June. US PPI is expected to dropped to -0.4% yoy in June. U of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected to improve slightly to 73.5 in July.

Watch for the current conditions component in today's consumer sentiment report. It offers a first read on July conditions.

Lots of bad news means good contrarian move opportunity.

http://i49.tinypic.com/ncq39.gif

Be Brave.
  • #80
  • Jul 13, 2012 7:15pm Jul 13, 2012 7:15pm
Outcome: again price rallied as expected for a +160.0 pip move. My limit didn't get taken in but there will be more trades next week. Risk appetite is improving due to earnings season but I suspect it will be ranging until it's over.

http://i49.tinypic.com/334utjr.gif

Be Brave.

Quoting Verb
Market sentiment: Overly Bearish
Signal: Buy Support
Pair: GBPUSD
Reaction Level: 1.5387

Earlier this morning, China's GDP slowed more than expected to 7.6% yoy in Q2. That's the worst number in three years and compared with Q1's 8.1% yoy.

Looking ahead, Swiss combined PPI is expected to improve slightly to -2.2% yoy in June. US PPI is expected to dropped to -0.4% yoy in June. U of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected to improve slightly to 73.5 in July.

Watch for the current conditions component in today's consumer sentiment report....
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