You control how you trade; the market controls how and when you'll get paid
- #14,463
- Jul 11, 2012 11:45am Jul 11, 2012 11:45am
No we are not finish because wave 5 must equal wave 1 in length or count is invalid therefore a min. drop to 1.21500 is necessary to satisfy the Elliott count. Then we can look for reversal or extension of existing drop to 1.618 or 2.618 fib.
Evaluator.:nerd:
wave 1 (according to my counting) was about 130 pips. This mean 1,22 could be the potential target which is also 1,61 fib extension.
1,215 is 2,618 fib ext. and at this price wave 5 would be 170 pips more or less.
Having said that I need to say that this level could be attractive because it is an important old resistance.
Symphonie will lead my entries carefully
ciao
wiz
You control how you trade; the market controls how and when you'll get paid
- #14,464
- Jul 11, 2012 12:27pm Jul 11, 2012 12:27pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,972 Posts
Eval,
wave 1 (according to my counting) was about 130 pips. This mean 1,22 could be the potential target which is also 1,61 fib extension.
1,215 is 2,618 fib ext. and at this price wave 5 would be 170 pips more or less.
Having said that I need to say that this level could be attractive because it is an important old resistance.
Symphonie will lead my entries carefully
ciao
wiz
Evaluator.:nerd:
- #14,466
- Jul 11, 2012 2:05pm Jul 11, 2012 2:05pm
I think more down also
If 1,2200-1,215 doesn't support the PA ..... we are going to dive
Thank you eval
You control how you trade; the market controls how and when you'll get paid
- #14,471
- Edited 2:46am Jul 12, 2012 2:00am | Edited 2:46am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,972 Posts
One of the hardest things in Forex is knowing when it is a good time to execute an order based on areas of Support and Resistance. While Symphonie greatly helps the trader to optimize the best order price to enter the markt there are still problems such as in the times of heavy whipsaws or great markt indecision that has for 2012 been much of the time.
Here are a few methods that I use to determine if resistance and support has been broken and when you should and should not place an order.
When markts make large moves like in the drop of this screenshot from 1.22715 to 1.22090 it is a normal occurance for there be some form of pullback called retracement. However, in times of very strong markt forces this pullback is not always the case. But for the interest of discussion we will use this situation as a good example of move and retracement. As a rule of thumb I practice a ''50% Pullback Rule'' which is basically in any large markt movement I always watch for atleast a 50% retracement of the movement to detemine levels of support and resistance.
As you can see the markt did indeed pullback over 50% of the downward thrust and ususally this first stopping level (1.22505) will be the highest point of the retracement if the move is to continue in a downward path. No other rally should go higher than the first 50% retracement and that level one should immediately draw a resistance line. At this point the price action rallies should be capped by this level.
Yes, I know there are bear flags, acsending wedges and the like but they usually reach the 50% retracement at the end so I am talking about a normal everyday retracement level.
So, now the price action has pulled back 50% in retracement and we have drawn our resistance line....what is next??
We wait and watch....If the price action immediately drops below the bottom of the downward thrust to 1.22090 then the retracement is normally immediatlely broken and the downward movement will continue from that point because support is weak....
If we have a period of consolidation with small drops and rallies then once can determine we have reached a major support/resistance level and any break of this level should be large in scope...this is the ''line in the sand''.
Type 1 support line: As you can see the price action after retracement dropped to 1.22195 and immediately rallied. That bottom of the lowest point is your support line for this consolidation range. One should draw a horizontal line at that level as this is your support level. To determine if it is broken or a breakout is to take place then price action would need to break and the body of the candlstick must close below that level. At that point one should place a sell order at the lowest point of that breakout candlstick. Why at the bottom?? because once there is a breakout price action will normally reverse and touch the support line before heading down. Placing an order at the lowest point keeps you out of the whipsaw or a ''false break''.**(will discuss later)
Type 2 support line: The second way to determine a support level is in the case of drawing a line from the very bottom of the down bar to the lowest point of the consolidation again this drop must exceed 50% of the rally before it can be considered. Again, to determine if support is broken or a breakout is to take place then price action would need to break and the body of the candlstick must close below that level. At that point one should place a sell order at the lowest point of that breakout candlstick.
Breaking resistance level: The same principle applies to a Buy if the resistance level is broken and there is a close of a candlstick above that level one should consider a buy order at that time because the resistance level has been broken and price action should rise after that level is broken.
''False Breaks'': False breaks are just what they are called the price action breaks a level but instead of continuing it immediately move back inside or possiblely reverses as it moves back through the resistance/support level. Therefore to keep one from being caught be a false break you should use the bottom of a support break candle or the top of a resistance break candle as your level of entry into the markt.
I hope this helps keep you out of bad trades and in profit.
Evaluator.:nerd:
P.S. ALWAYS uses a Stoploss!
Here are a few methods that I use to determine if resistance and support has been broken and when you should and should not place an order.
When markts make large moves like in the drop of this screenshot from 1.22715 to 1.22090 it is a normal occurance for there be some form of pullback called retracement. However, in times of very strong markt forces this pullback is not always the case. But for the interest of discussion we will use this situation as a good example of move and retracement. As a rule of thumb I practice a ''50% Pullback Rule'' which is basically in any large markt movement I always watch for atleast a 50% retracement of the movement to detemine levels of support and resistance.
As you can see the markt did indeed pullback over 50% of the downward thrust and ususally this first stopping level (1.22505) will be the highest point of the retracement if the move is to continue in a downward path. No other rally should go higher than the first 50% retracement and that level one should immediately draw a resistance line. At this point the price action rallies should be capped by this level.
Yes, I know there are bear flags, acsending wedges and the like but they usually reach the 50% retracement at the end so I am talking about a normal everyday retracement level.
So, now the price action has pulled back 50% in retracement and we have drawn our resistance line....what is next??
We wait and watch....If the price action immediately drops below the bottom of the downward thrust to 1.22090 then the retracement is normally immediatlely broken and the downward movement will continue from that point because support is weak....
If we have a period of consolidation with small drops and rallies then once can determine we have reached a major support/resistance level and any break of this level should be large in scope...this is the ''line in the sand''.
Type 1 support line: As you can see the price action after retracement dropped to 1.22195 and immediately rallied. That bottom of the lowest point is your support line for this consolidation range. One should draw a horizontal line at that level as this is your support level. To determine if it is broken or a breakout is to take place then price action would need to break and the body of the candlstick must close below that level. At that point one should place a sell order at the lowest point of that breakout candlstick. Why at the bottom?? because once there is a breakout price action will normally reverse and touch the support line before heading down. Placing an order at the lowest point keeps you out of the whipsaw or a ''false break''.**(will discuss later)
Type 2 support line: The second way to determine a support level is in the case of drawing a line from the very bottom of the down bar to the lowest point of the consolidation again this drop must exceed 50% of the rally before it can be considered. Again, to determine if support is broken or a breakout is to take place then price action would need to break and the body of the candlstick must close below that level. At that point one should place a sell order at the lowest point of that breakout candlstick.
Breaking resistance level: The same principle applies to a Buy if the resistance level is broken and there is a close of a candlstick above that level one should consider a buy order at that time because the resistance level has been broken and price action should rise after that level is broken.
''False Breaks'': False breaks are just what they are called the price action breaks a level but instead of continuing it immediately move back inside or possiblely reverses as it moves back through the resistance/support level. Therefore to keep one from being caught be a false break you should use the bottom of a support break candle or the top of a resistance break candle as your level of entry into the markt.
I hope this helps keep you out of bad trades and in profit.
Evaluator.:nerd:
P.S. ALWAYS uses a Stoploss!
- #14,475
- Jul 12, 2012 2:20am Jul 12, 2012 2:20am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,972 Posts
out of EU for 10pips.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
am i out too early? lost of patient?
That is fine
....because by the Symphonie 5% growth Strategy plan you have meet your daily goal. 
To get excel spreadsheet see post#1
Evaluator.:nerd:
- #14,476
- Jul 12, 2012 2:27am Jul 12, 2012 2:27am
That is fine
To get excel spreadsheet see post#1
Evaluator.:nerd:
thanks
patient....
- #14,478
- Jul 12, 2012 2:46am Jul 12, 2012 2:46am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
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