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  • #441
  • Jul 10, 2012 11:27pm Jul 10, 2012 11:27pm
There 3 ways to look aussie how you see in the chart. Breaking 1.0150 confirm the bear trend. Breaking 1.0325 confirm bull trend. Between that there is the twilight zone.

I am contemplating the idea that first the market should go higher without break 1.0325 and then go down breaking the trendline. That is because the RSI trendline was broke and now the market is trying to retested.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie4h.png Size: 58 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #442
  • Jul 10, 2012 11:48pm Jul 10, 2012 11:48pm
3 ways I see dollar. Breaking 10190 confirm bulls!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dollar1h.png Size: 55 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #443
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:16am Jul 11, 2012 12:16am
Nice price to watch is 1.2285 50% fib level to determinate that we go up or down. Breaking 1.234 confirm a 1.240 target. Breaking 1.2235 confirm bears, at least if this consolidation is wave 4, so breaking 1.2235 no confirm bears, just finish wave 5 and then higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro4h.png Size: 47 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #444
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:31am Jul 11, 2012 12:31am
when I mark brent crude wave then I watched the area 97.70 very carefully and put my selling order below 20 pips of that linee . But it hold and spike of 100 pip move was there look at the chart I posted above..................I am still confirms that it will break through and if it hold then how long it would take it to hold But this is a strong area and test of high is still valid..............Let see what happens today because of currencies are not as volatile as it were in the previous week. So must watch scenario today and tommorrow there are lot of pips to be taken.


Thanks and regards
Aman





Quoting aman4forex
thats perfect thinking I am staying out aussie looking for aussie to break below 1.0125 or 1.0220 then there is possibility the picture is not clear.................though kiwi has one possibility h1 chart would be posted soon

here I am posting my brent crude update chart on h4 earlier i short usd crude oil from 87.00 area and now I am looking for brent to breach 97.80 ...............here is the chart

Take a look ............expanded flat or whatever you people called but I dont pay much attention to them my analysis are purely based...
  • #445
  • Jul 11, 2012 7:18am Jul 11, 2012 7:18am
Hi Carlos - just want to thank you for opening this thread and for your great posts.

Thanks to your AUD/USD count I made yesterda some nice pips ... on EU . I discovered that AU's count was somehow clearer.

Based on your previous post , what you think about current count - are we developing wave 4 of C/Y ??

We breached 1.2285 on EU so I'm little bit confused (you wrote that it will determine which way it will go)

http://i45.servimg.com/u/f45/11/65/36/33/129.gif
  • #446
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:59am Jul 11, 2012 8:59am
Quoting PolishTrader
Hi Carlos - just want to thank you for opening this thread and for your great posts.

Thanks to your AUD/USD count I made yesterda some nice pips ... on EU . I discovered that AU's count was somehow clearer.

Based on your previous post , what you think about current count - are we developing wave 4 of C/Y ??

We breached 1.2285 on EU so I'm little bit confused (you wrote that it will determine which way it will go)

http://i45.servimg.com/u/f45/11/65/36/33/129.gif
You made a good job with that count, should go higher.

1.2285 was a perfect retracement but it doesnt mean that it could not go higher for a retracement

You must concentrate in this levels:
Breaking 1.234 confirm a 1.240 target. Breaking 1.2235 confirm bears
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #447
  • Jul 11, 2012 3:12pm Jul 11, 2012 3:12pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
How everybody knows the SPX500 is very correlative with the aussie dollar. So SPX500 still does not confirm the downtrend. How you see in the chart with need to break 1346 first and if you want perfect confirmation you need to break 1333.
SPX did not breal 1333. Risk on still alive.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #448
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:44pm Jul 11, 2012 9:44pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
There 3 ways to look aussie how you see in the chart. Breaking 1.0150 confirm the bear trend. Breaking 1.0325 confirm bull trend. Between that there is the twilight zone.

I am contemplating the idea that first the market should go higher without break 1.0325 and then go down breaking the trendline. That is because the RSI trendline was broke and now the market is trying to retested.
The trendline was tested with the bad job number. The RSI trendline was tested and rejected, but we still need to break 1.0150 to a perfect confirmation to short the market. A good entry should be 1.0230 or 1.0240 fib levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie4h2.png Size: 49 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #449
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:44pm Jul 11, 2012 9:44pm
Hi Luis,
Excellent thread on EW.
I have been trying to trade with EW for sometime now using Robert Miner's method. But so far the winning rate is very low, not able to make money with it.

From your experience, which wave or which pattern setup gives the highest probability of winning?
  • #450
  • Jul 11, 2012 10:06pm Jul 11, 2012 10:06pm
I have two views with the pound dollar. First go to 1.5535 and then break the trendline or go to @1.56 and then break the trendline
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #451
  • Jul 11, 2012 10:26pm Jul 11, 2012 10:26pm
Quoting lithium1
Hi Luis,
Excellent thread on EW.
I have been trying to trade with EW for sometime now using Robert Miner's method. But so far the winning rate is very low, not able to make money with it.

From your experience, which wave or which pattern setup gives the highest probability of winning?
Hi Lithium, nice to know about you. I dont know the Robert Miners method.

I thing the best method is finding W or M in charts using 15min timeframes for trades at least 1 or 2 weeks. and using 1h timeframe for trades at least 1 or 2 months..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: patterns2.png Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu%2015min.PNG Size: 83 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #452
  • Jul 11, 2012 10:38pm Jul 11, 2012 10:38pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Hi Lithium, nice to know about you. I dont know the Robert Miners method.

I thing the best method is finding W or M in charts using 15min timeframes for trades at least 1 or 2 weeks. and using 1h timeframe for trades at least 1 or 2 months..
LooK oil 15 min good opportunity to a drop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil.15min.png Size: 45 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #453
  • Jul 12, 2012 12:07am Jul 12, 2012 12:07am
Quoting Luis Carlos
LooK oil 15 min good opportunity to a drop.
you must confirm the down trend breaking the low of the W. You can enter before but put the stop up the W.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #454
  • Jul 12, 2012 3:15am Jul 12, 2012 3:15am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Hi Lithium, nice to know about you. I dont know the Robert Miners method.

I thing the best method is finding W or M in charts using 15min timeframes for trades at least 1 or 2 weeks. and using 1h timeframe for trades at least 1 or 2 months..
Thanks Luis, so the entry for the first diagram is B, stop loss at 2, target a wave 3 fibo projection.

Entry for second diagram is 4 or a, stop loss at 5, target a corrective wave abc

So far what are the % of winning for this pattern? Thanks again, I will try it out
  • #455
  • Jul 12, 2012 9:49am Jul 12, 2012 9:49am
Quoting lithium1
Thanks Luis, so the entry for the first diagram is B, stop loss at 2, target a wave 3 fibo projection.

Entry for second diagram is 4 or a, stop loss at 5, target a corrective wave abc

So far what are the % of winning for this pattern? Thanks again, I will try it out
I will just try the 1-2 first. no the 4-5 because 5 could be ending diagonal or something and you will lose.

The entry should be b stop above 1, but you can enter at 2 looking for 50 or 61.8 fib retracement and then stop in 1. This often works the targets change because if you entered and there was no 1-2 there is pips but, no to much and you could lose with that thinking that wave 3 is coming.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #456
  • Jul 12, 2012 9:51am Jul 12, 2012 9:51am
This is how a see euro dollar. Support 1.2140.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 4h.png Size: 38 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #457
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:33pm Jul 12, 2012 1:33pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
This is how a see euro dollar. Support 1.2140.
Just a thought!

I think is clear that the market is finishing this cycle in a ending diagonal. WE should bounce at 1.2140 to 1.2285 then 1.20 and then higher again but with a big area @1.23/1.27 to resume the downtrends.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #458
  • Jul 13, 2012 12:39pm Jul 13, 2012 12:39pm
Keep an eye at C or Y levels this could be a bear trap
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jul13aussie4h.png Size: 58 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #459
  • Edited 5:30pm Jul 13, 2012 1:09pm | Edited 5:30pm
Here we are making a nice W. To confirm the bear we need to break 1.0098. In the other hand we have the problem that market could go to @1.0430.

What to do?

1. Wait until break 1.0098 to get short.
2. Long now 1.0220 stop 1.0098 tp 1.0430. You could lose 120 pips.
3. Go short now 1.0220. Stop 1.0332 tp open. You could lose 113,2 pips.
4. Wait until 1.043/5 and short there.

happy trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jul13aussie4h.png Size: 65 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #460
  • Jul 14, 2012 5:50pm Jul 14, 2012 5:50pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
This is how a see euro dollar. Support 1.2140.

If this is indeed the ending of wave 3 of 5 then I look for a min. retracement to the 23.6fib (1.22400) or 38fib (1.23800).

I think the 38 is the most common so I am looking for a high of 1.23800 to 1.2400 before any further downside.

Best regards,

Evaluator.:nerd:
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