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AUD/USD

  • #49,061
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:14am Jul 11, 2012 8:14am
Quoting mattheweston
I'm long at 1.0181. I think I'm going to stay put. =)
So, you are a buy-and hold long guy/lady in the Forex market.
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,062
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:17am Jul 11, 2012 8:17am
If the bears are strong enough, they might take us to 1.0126 soon
  • #49,063
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:24am Jul 11, 2012 8:24am
Quoting jplazard
The balloon will be popped Thursday night sending the AUD by Sunday to parity; from there it will trend towards 98-96 level for reassessment.
China GDP will slaughter those long on this pair thinking were headed back to 105 or 106 you won't see that print for the next few months.
[color=black][font=Verdana]There is only one chart people need to look at and that is /DX the dollar index is strong, RSI is a bit overbought but the PA is setting up for a new YTD...
Whether or not the balloon will be popped is remained to be seen at this point. You might not know how good Chinese Communist Party can fake the data. Regardless of what happens in the short-term, The intermediate-term navigation plan of the balloon will be intact. -IMHO-
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,064
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:30am Jul 11, 2012 8:30am
The USD strength is the only thing halting the AUD/USD pair from flying to the moon as DaddyBear would put it.

No matter how bad Chinese numbers are the AUD won't be hit too badly. You tech guys only see the price charts and think it is sufficient so you ignore the fundamental reason why the USD is gaining strength and even more importantly why the AUD is not losing strength against the USD by much in this risk off economic environment.

If the AUD/USD goes anywhere near parity, I will be snapping it up again in a flash because I know that it is not the AUD weakness but the USD strength.

On a side note, I have a couple of carry trades going on involving a certain currency(AUD) that everyone is so bearish about and that have brought in a huge chunk of cash that I'll probably be using to stimulate my local economy.
  • #49,065
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:30am Jul 11, 2012 8:30am
Quoting irfandbl
If the bears are strong enough, they might take us to 1.0126 soon
You forgot your 1.037 target not long ago? You will need an army of bears to bring the balloon back to the Earth. The power of the nature is much stronger then all bears combined. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,066
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:39am Jul 11, 2012 8:39am
Added another long here. I think this resistance level will be finally broken, which has been building up for a couple weeks now. It broke outside of the daily range earlier, but is now back inside it. A move back above 260 would be a strong bullish signal IMO.
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  • #49,067
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:40am Jul 11, 2012 8:40am
I agree the Chinese have a habit of massaging the numbers but I don't think they are going to be coming out with better than expected by any means if they do then I really don't see a case to be short anything and will go long across the board on ES, Commodities for a new move upward into the election.
If we take all fundamental’s out the window and just look at charts oil, copper, base metals, are in a downtrend this last week, ES is having trouble breaking out and FOMC hopes of QE play is just laughable at this point. The Bernanke put starts kicking in at 12,000 on the DOW If we did not come in after May then we won't come in before elections.
The dollar just traded (did not close) at a new YTD high I expect it to come down once Ben comes out but 83 holds you could very well see 84 by Friday’s trading
  • #49,068
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:45am Jul 11, 2012 8:45am
Quoting jplazard
I agree the Chinese have a habit of massaging the numbers but I don't think they are going to be coming out with better than expected by any means if they do then I really don't see a case to be short anything and will go long across the board on ES, Commodities for a new move upward into the election.
[color=black][font=Verdana]If we take all fundamental’s out the window and just look at charts oil, copper, base metals, are in a downtrend this last week, ES is having trouble breaking out and FOMC hopes...
Do you forget the looming "QE3"?
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,069
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:54am Jul 11, 2012 8:54am
Quoting jplazard
I agree the Chinese have a habit of massaging the numbers but I don't think they are going to be coming out with better than expected by any means if they do then I really don't see a case to be short anything and will go long across the board on ES, Commodities for a new move upward into the election.
[color=black][font=Verdana]If we take all fundamental’s out the window and just look at charts oil, copper, base metals, are in a downtrend this last week, ES is having trouble breaking out and FOMC...
And the markets won't move at all.
  • #49,070
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:55am Jul 11, 2012 8:55am
QE3 talk is great and just like last Friday in the last 2hrs of trading the ES rallied on MBS buying talk from the fed but that trade was faded quickly... It's one thing to discuss rumblings of a stimulus plan it's another to have a formal draft outlining structure, time frame of operations, Interest pay pack schedule ect... The EU summit 2weeks ago laid out a plan to have direct funding to Spanish banks EUR shot up but if you ask any trader on a desk or Institutional investor if he can send over a draft they will say its not on paper yet. EUR falls..... What I am getting at is the market on QE3 is not anticipating anything from the fed as they have been burned twice before setting positions earlier this year.. The market is not going to rally 5%-8% on just talk anymore. April/May was a massive deterioration on asset values and more importantly credit so If the fed did not come in w/ operations in June they will not touch this market for awhile.
  • #49,071
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:55am Jul 11, 2012 8:55am
Quoting DaddyBear
So, you are a buy-and hold long guy/lady in the Forex market.
I got burned too many times by jumping out and opening too many trades. I tend to buy/sell and hold for awhile. I may miss some opportunities, but I have a tendency to not lose as much with this approach.
  • #49,072
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:56am Jul 11, 2012 8:56am
Quoting jplazard
The balloon will be popped Thursday night sending the AUD by Sunday to parity; from there it will trend towards 98-96 level for reassessment.
China GDP will slaughter those long on this pair thinking were headed back to 105 or 106 you won't see that print for the next few months.
[color=black][font=Verdana]There is only one chart people need to look at and that is /DX the dollar index is strong, RSI is a bit overbought but the PA is setting up for a new YTD high...
interesting read.....the aud index is forming a double top,i guess the Chinese data could be the ingredient needed to cause the required drop...this bullish moves may just be the market pricing in that reaction....we still have to wait for the FOMC...time will tell....
It is possible to make large sums trading, small losses, large wins
  • #49,073
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:57am Jul 11, 2012 8:57am
Quoting Esssex
The USD strength is the only thing halting the AUD/USD pair from flying to the moon as DaddyBear would put it.

No matter how bad Chinese numbers are the AUD won't be hit too badly. You tech guys only see the price charts and think it is sufficient so you ignore the fundamental reason why the USD is gaining strength and even more importantly why the AUD is not losing strength against the USD by much in this risk off economic environment.

If the AUD/USD goes anywhere near parity, I will be snapping it up again in a flash because I know that it...

Fundamentally, Australia can't support itself, it'll still be one of the first hit if the Chinese numbers are bad, and it'll be frequent, remember they are all relative to each other, QE3 is a joke.....the upside has been tested and tried, I'm not really expecting much up there yet.
  • #49,074
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:03am Jul 11, 2012 9:03am
If you truly think markets trade based solely off fundamentals than how is it housing prices or commodity prices shot up so high over perceived 'fundamental value'. If fundamentals were the main driver of charts than every stock would trade at book value always... The name of the game is can I get a bigger fool to offload my contracts before we top out or will I be left holding the bag. Bubbles occur solely based on overshooting fundamental values the market participants perceived bias comes in and reinforces the bubble until you have expectations and underlying at a massive divergence causing a crash
  • #49,075
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:05am Jul 11, 2012 9:05am
Quoting lolygagv2
Fundamentally, Australia can't support itself, it'll still be one of the first hit if the Chinese numbers are bad, and it'll be frequent, remember they are all relative to each other, QE3 is a joke.....the upside has been tested and tried, I'm not really expecting much up there yet.
Don't look at the Aussie just as the Aussie itself. Look at the Aussie as part of the world economy and compare the Aussie with the other economies as well as the prevailing economic climate.

See if you see what I am seeing. Sure, Australia will be hit but everyone is being hit so hard it's a matter of who isn't wounded til the brink of death.

My bets will be on the Australian dollar but then again I am on a TF of weeks to even months and beyond.
  • #49,076
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:06am Jul 11, 2012 9:06am
Quoting DaddyBear
You forgot your 1.037 target not long ago? You will need an army of bears to bring the balloon back to the Earth. The power of the nature is much stronger then all bears combined. -DB-
Will bookmark this post
  • #49,077
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:07am Jul 11, 2012 9:07am
Quoting jplazard
[color=black][font=Verdana]If you truly think markets trade based solely off fundamentals than how is it housing prices or commodity prices shot up so high over perceived 'fundamental value'. If fundamentals were the main driver of charts than every stock would trade at book value always... The name of the game is can I get a bigger fool to offload my contracts before we top out or will I be left holding the bag. Bubbles occur solely based on overshooting fundamental values the market participants perceived bias comes in and reinforces the bubble...
Contradictory post.

I hope you see it. If not then it is ok, your life won't be destroyed by not seeing it anyway.
  • #49,078
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:07am Jul 11, 2012 9:07am
Quoting Esssex
The USD strength is the only thing halting the AUD/USD pair from flying to the moon as DaddyBear would put it.

No matter how bad Chinese numbers are the AUD won't be hit too badly. You tech guys only see the price charts and think it is sufficient so you ignore the fundamental reason why the USD is gaining strength and even more importantly why the AUD is not losing strength against the USD by much in this risk off economic environment.

If the AUD/USD goes anywhere near parity, I will be snapping it up again in a flash because I know that it...
i think understanding the fundamentals is the key for any AUD bear...when the drop begins,it will be too obvious,i cant say the aud is due for any correction, because in its climb it has done some dips...right now,am staying clear...maybe till the china data is due,depending on how high it climbs..but i have to agree that fundamentally the AUD looks very good..
It is possible to make large sums trading, small losses, large wins
  • #49,079
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:09am Jul 11, 2012 9:09am
Quoting jplazard
[color=black][font=Verdana]If you truly think markets trade based solely off fundamentals than how is it housing prices or commodity prices shot up so high over perceived 'fundamental value'. If fundamentals were the main driver of charts than every stock would trade at book value always... The name of the game is can I get a bigger fool to offload my contracts before we top out or will I be left holding the bag. Bubbles occur solely based on overshooting fundamental values the market participants perceived bias comes in and reinforces the bubble...

Trading has nothing to do with fundamentals or bars charts....is not even about the money. And if you think is about the money, how could it be about the money if you never know how much? It is about the POTENTIAL. That is what drives the markets.
  • #49,080
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:13am Jul 11, 2012 9:13am
Quoting DaddyBear
You forgot your 1.037 target not long ago? You will need an army of bears to bring the balloon back to the Earth. The power of the nature is much stronger then all bears combined. -DB-
I know, but it would be great to go long from 1.0126
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