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AUD/USD

  • #49,041
  • Jul 11, 2012 6:06am Jul 11, 2012 6:06am
AUD has been trending up for a while on the daily chart...

on 4 hour there is a strong level of resistance which became support...
it test 190 area and got pushed away..tested again and got pushed further away, tested a 3rd time and couldnt go as low and is now EVEN further away...207 is a 38 fib 170 is a 50 fib.... 190 is m2 weekly, stochastics 4 hour is wayyyy oversold in the 190 area....

i think well see 400
  • #49,042
  • Jul 11, 2012 6:08am Jul 11, 2012 6:08am
Quoting Freshpips
You think we've reached as high as we're going to go for now?

You not see one more push towards 1.0330 before the fall? The USD is still very weak?
I hope not, I have my stops at 1.0292.
I thought that they will push up before the unemployment rate. But I have a fear that I won't be in the falling.
"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #49,043
  • Jul 11, 2012 6:11am Jul 11, 2012 6:11am
Quoting mab41487
AUD has been trending up for a while on the daily chart...

on 4 hour there is a strong level of resistance which became support...
it test 190 area and got pushed away..tested again and got pushed further away, tested a 3rd time and couldnt go as low and is now EVEN further away...207 is a 38 fib 170 is a 50 fib.... 190 is m2 weekly, stochastics 4 hour is wayyyy oversold in the 190 area....

i think well see 400
With the possibility of a bad unemployment rate, I dont think that it will reach 400 in the next few weeks. Cause a bad data, can predict further rate cuts.
"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #49,044
  • Jul 11, 2012 6:12am Jul 11, 2012 6:12am
i think we will see 1.0315 and then a retracement and then up to 1.0370
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  • #49,045
  • Jul 11, 2012 6:16am Jul 11, 2012 6:16am
Quoting littlemole
I hope not, I have my stops at 1.0292.
I thought that they will push up before the unemployment rate. But I have a fear that I won't be in the falling.

I hope not either my friend! Looking at my charts 1.0300 could get tested.

Which level are you targeting with current trade?
  • #49,046
  • Jul 11, 2012 6:18am Jul 11, 2012 6:18am
Everything is possible but remember everyone trade his own chart depends on his own MM and TF
GL All
  • #49,047
  • Jul 11, 2012 6:18am Jul 11, 2012 6:18am
Quoting littlemole
With the possibility of a bad unemployment rate, I dont think that it will reach 400 in the next few weeks. Cause a bad data, can predict further rate cuts.
I wouldn't count on any further rate cuts until September or so, inflation is in check, construction is picking up pace and retail can't complain either and unemployment numbers won't disappoint tomorrow, nothing to worry about fundamentally coming from Australia, the only thing weighing on the Aussie is China.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #49,048
  • Jul 11, 2012 6:21am Jul 11, 2012 6:21am
Quoting Freshpips
I hope not either my friend! Looking at my charts 1.0300 could get tested.

Which level are you targeting with current trade?
I have a short from 1.0260 and I am targeting 1.0205.
"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #49,049
  • Jul 11, 2012 6:22am Jul 11, 2012 6:22am
Quoting stulic
I wouldn't count on any further rate cuts until September or so, inflation is in check, construction is picking up pace and retail can't complain either and unemployment numbers won't disappoint tomorrow, nothing to worry about fundamentally coming from Australia, the only thing weighing on the Aussie is China.
Then I have to wait for Friday.
"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #49,050
  • Jul 11, 2012 7:07am Jul 11, 2012 7:07am
Quoting Freshpips
You think we've reached as high as we're going to go for now?

You not see one more push towards 1.0330 before the fall? The USD is still very weak?
Look to last 4 candle on 15min ,"I'm one of Big boys LOL"
  • #49,051
  • Jul 11, 2012 7:24am Jul 11, 2012 7:24am
Quoting egkid
Look to last 4 candle on 15min ,"I'm one of Big boys LOL"

Looks to be strong rejection from around the 1.280 level, this not just a minor retracement on the overall move higher up before start of true reversal?

May have trouble breaking back through 1.0244??
  • #49,052
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:33am Jul 11, 2012 8:33am
Quoting DaddyBear
The bull's balloon couldn't fly high enough because too many bears were still hanging around with the balloon, but ........... Story developing ..........

Attention:
DaddyBear's cartoons are not indicators. Please do not apply them to your charts because they won't fit anyway.
News this week may just fly over and cut that rope.
  • #49,053
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:40am Jul 11, 2012 8:40am
Quoting Esssex
News this week may just fly over and cut that rope.
Esssex, unlike one super trader, who could not even understand one cartoon at all but kept saying it was silly and ridiculous, you are indeed a wise man. You even foresee what my next cartoon is going to be. It's so wonderful to know someone who can read my mind. Thanks! -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,054
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:56am Jul 11, 2012 8:56am
Quoting DaddyBear
Esssex, unlike one super trader, who could not even understand one cartoon at all but kept saying it was silly and ridiculous, you are indeed a wise man. You even foresee what my next cartoon is going to be. It's so wonderful to know someone who can read my mind. Thanks! -DB-
Hey Papa How's it going today....well all I can say it's been a rough 5 days for me.... remember how I was stuck in a losing trade from 1.0250...well finally got out of it today at 1.0275...a lot of pain for 25pips but I guess a win is a win...I think I'm just going sit back and see if we can get back to the 1.03 area for a short..if it doesn't get there will pull the trigger back at the 1.0250 area...happy hunting to ya...
  • #49,055
  • Edited 9:44am Jul 11, 2012 9:18am | Edited 9:44am
Quoting petehnm
Hey Papa How's it going today....well all I can say it's been a rough 5 days for me.... remember how I was stuck in a losing trade from 1.0250...well finally got out of it today at 1.0275...a lot of pain for 25pips but I guess a win is a win...I think I'm just going sit back and see if we can get back to the 1.03 area for a short..if it doesn't get there will pull the trigger back at the 1.0250 area...happy hunting to ya...
Hey petehnm, finally you are out of the hole. Great! I am on the short side this morning and doing very well. When the south wind blows, I will jump to the balloon gondola to hang around with Ms. Bull. Have a nice trading day! -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,056
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:30am Jul 11, 2012 9:30am
Quoting DaddyBear
Hey petehnm, finally you are out of the hole. Great! I am on the short side this morning and doing very well. When the north wind blows, I will jump to the balloon gondola to hang around with Ms. Bull. Have a nice trading day! -DB-

would like to join ya on that ride north ..any interesting points you may be looking at to jump in.... I like 1.0234 or 1.0220...any thoughts....
  • #49,057
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:41am Jul 11, 2012 9:41am
I'm long at 1.0181. I think I'm going to stay put. =)
  • #49,058
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:47am Jul 11, 2012 9:47am
Quoting petehnm
would like to join ya on that ride north ..any interesting points you may be looking at to jump in.... I like 1.0234 or 1.0220...any thoughts....
Actually, north wind should be south wind. It was a typo. I don't have a particular number in my mind. When the rope is broken then the balloon will fly away and away.......
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,059
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:51am Jul 11, 2012 9:51am
Quoting DaddyBear
Actually, north wind should be south wind. It was a typo. I don't have a particular number in my mind. When the rope is broken then the balloon will fly away and away.......

gotcha thanks...I'm gonna ride it down from here 1.0250..keeping my stops tight after I leave to go the JOB...
  • #49,060
  • Jul 11, 2012 10:08am Jul 11, 2012 10:08am
The balloon will be popped Thursday night sending the AUD by Sunday to parity; from there it will trend towards 98-96 level for reassessment.
China GDP will slaughter those long on this pair thinking were headed back to 105 or 106 you won't see that print for the next few months.
There is only one chart people need to look at and that is /DX the dollar index is strong, RSI is a bit overbought but the PA is setting up for a new YTD high by Friday. We could see a dollar sell off to 83 levels (FOMC today) which would set it up nicely for a spike to new YTD high sending commodities lower and EUR to 1.20 even.
I have been building this position for a little over a week now and am now short /6A -16 contracts (54K) at $10 per tick .0001 so believe me if GDP comes out better I will be hurting to cover.


Cheers to all and watch the 1.02 fakeouts as you should look at Copper, Oil, Palladium, Platinum all in a downward channel waiting tofor China numbers to sell off or break to the upside
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