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  • #667,061
  • Jul 9, 2012 7:16pm Jul 9, 2012 7:16pm
Hypothetical trading strategy,

Guys im fairly new to trading and would like to know what can potentially go wrong providing you have alot of money in your balance (say 100k) and you keep your trade lots low risking only a small amount. Surely the very high balance will allow you to hold onto losing trades long enough for a reversal?

I understand that the fact of having a losing position will mean you are not making anything whilst in them but once the price reverses you are back in the game.

Obviously trades would still be made sensibly when the market shows a clear entry.

Can someone advise me of the long term pitfalls of this?
Money never sleeps...
  • #667,062
  • Jul 9, 2012 7:52pm Jul 9, 2012 7:52pm
Quoting inpatient
Hypothetical trading strategy,

Guys im fairly new to trading and would like to know what can potentially go wrong providing you have alot of money in your balance (say 100k) and you keep your trade lots low risking only a small amount. Surely the very high balance will allow you to hold onto losing trades long enough for a reversal?

I understand that the fact of having a losing position will mean you are not making anything whilst in them but once the price reverses you are back in the game.

Obviously trades would still be made sensibly when...
Risk:Reward Ratio, it'll get you in the long run. Your plan will only work if you get in and out within a few months.

If it's anything longer, and you actually want to earn income or consistent returns, the problem is your risk reward ratio. It all comes back to that. This is stressed ALL The time, go look up "baby pips", we're done with this subject.
  • #667,063
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:02pm Jul 9, 2012 8:02pm
Let's see where this leads
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 15 min 07-09-12.gif Size: 44 KB
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #667,064
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:07pm Jul 9, 2012 8:07pm
Quoting inpatient
Hypothetical trading strategy,

Guys im fairly new to trading and would like to know what can potentially go wrong providing you have alot of money in your balance (say 100k) and you keep your trade lots low risking only a small amount. Surely the very high balance will allow you to hold onto losing trades long enough for a reversal?

I understand that the fact of having a losing position will mean you are not making anything whilst in them but once the price reverses you are back in the game.

Obviously trades would still be made sensibly when...
Here you go....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NoStop-EURUSD.png Size: 124 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NoStop-GBPUSD.png Size: 109 KB


Have you got enough money to cover > 7,000pips and more + negative roll overs?

  • #667,065
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:11pm Jul 9, 2012 8:11pm
Quoting inpatient
Hypothetical trading strategy,

Guys im fairly new to trading and would like to know what can potentially go wrong providing you have alot of money in your balance (say 100k) and you keep your trade lots low risking only a small amount. Surely the very high balance will allow you to hold onto losing trades long enough for a reversal?

I understand that the fact of having a losing position will mean you are not making anything whilst in them but once the price reverses you are back in the game.

Obviously trades would still be made sensibly when...
1. Take a chart and a calculator

2. Calculate how much you would lose if price goes against you 90% of the range (if your range is 1.0000 to 1.6000, that would be 6,000 pips and 90% of that would be 5,400 pips)

2. If you are planning to open one position every 1,000 pips, calculate your loss for each of the following:

a. 5,400 pips
b. 4,400 pips
c. 3,400 pips
d. 2,400 pips
e. 1,400 pips

Add them up to arrive at Total Loss from all these positions. Now calculate your r/r for each of the above positions. e will have much better r/r than c and a will have least r/r.

Be patient and play your game, if you think roi is good enough.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #667,066
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:11pm Jul 9, 2012 8:11pm
IMO.

If you are new then, trade demo or very small size till you are comfortable trading with live money and with size.

Trading is all about money management and psychology.

It's you against the market and more about knowing yourself.

Finding a trading method or style to fit the current market conditions, not over trading, keeping losers small, and letting winners run.

Trading is a journey and not a race.

FF will not teach you all you need to know but the market will.

Learn everything, but less on charts are better.

Start with weekly, daily, 4h, 1h, 30m, and 15m TFs. 5m can also be used for entry. Higher TFs show you the way.

Mark on charts good S/R levels, Pivots, 200 MA, 50MA, 20MA, and Fibos.

Learn all patterns but I like to look for M and W patterns mostly.

My 2 cent and a good place to start.

Happy Trading!
Cheers


Quoting inpatient
Hypothetical trading strategy,

Guys im fairly new to trading and would like to know what can potentially go wrong providing you have alot of money in your balance (say 100k) and you keep your trade lots low risking only a small amount. Surely the very high balance will allow you to hold onto losing trades long enough for a reversal?

I understand that the fact of having a losing position will mean you are not making anything whilst in them but once the price reverses you are back in the game.

Obviously trades would still be made sensibly when...
  • #667,067
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:17pm Jul 9, 2012 8:17pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Here you go....

Attachment
Attachment


Have you got enough money to cover > 7,000pips and more + negative roll overs?


No but this a very extreme example from the very bottom to the very top of what was essentially a fairly new currency with little long term statistical info telling us what is 'normal conditions' as time has moved forward and from where we are now can you see the pair going anywhere near these historic levels again?
Money never sleeps...
  • #667,068
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:18pm Jul 9, 2012 8:18pm
Quoting disegnosys
IMO.

If you are new then, trade demo or very small size till you are comfortable trading with live money and with size.

Trading is all about money management and psychology.

It's you against the market and more about knowing yourself.

Finding a trading method or style to fit the current market conditions, not over trading, keeping losers small, and letting winners run.

Trading is a journey and not a race.

FF will not teach you all you need to know but the market will.

Learn everything, but less on charts are better.

Start with...

thanks for this advice,
Money never sleeps...
  • #667,069
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:20pm Jul 9, 2012 8:20pm
Quoting inpatient
Hypothetical trading strategy,

Guys im fairly new to trading and would like to know what can potentially go wrong providing you have alot of money in your balance (say 100k) and you keep your trade lots low risking only a small amount. Surely the very high balance will allow you to hold onto losing trades long enough for a reversal?

I understand that the fact of having a losing position will mean you are not making anything whilst in them but once the price reverses you are back in the game.

Can someone advise me of the long term pitfalls...
It's easy long term, let's say you took a small long (no leverage or 1:1) months ago @ 1.45. EU went short and it never looked back.
On a $100K account you would have a pending loss now of $22,000.
That's not fun is it?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #667,070
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:27pm Jul 9, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting inpatient
No but this a very extreme example from the very bottom to the very top of what was essentially a fairly new currency with little long term statistical info telling us what is 'normal conditions' as time has moved forward and from where we are now can you see the pair going anywhere near these historic levels again?
EU is hard on it's way to historic levels
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #667,071
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:36pm Jul 9, 2012 8:36pm
One more thing and you can look at it this way when learning to trade.

Why start trading with 100K.

Protecting capital is the number one rule. So, when ready to trade live take $500.00 and open an account. If you can double your account to $1000. Then you may be ready to trade more. Increase account size slowly.

Trading is a game, all BS, it's all about the money, market makers just move the market wherever to cause the most pain to the traders who don't know how to trade.

Cheers

Quoting inpatient
thanks for this advice,
  • #667,072
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:42pm Jul 9, 2012 8:42pm
Quoting KillerWhale
EU is hard on it's way to historic levels
Underlying conditions and this chart. Rest is guess work. Where would be the next lower low?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #667,073
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:43pm Jul 9, 2012 8:43pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Let's see where this leads
Rejection at the trendline.
(was to be expected.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 15 min 07-09-12-2.gif Size: 34 KB
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #667,074
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:44pm Jul 9, 2012 8:44pm
We're approaching friday's close at 2284 and this is usually a good place for a bounce.

We might miss it and jump at 2287.

There is usually minor consolidation around these levels.

3208 is also an important number --> It was the high before the markets opened/dived on Sunday.

Hint:
For the NEWBIES Pay attention to the Friday Close ALWAYS. --> Check your charts to look at how PA behaves at last week's (Friday's) close and make your own observations to see whether or not this is true.
  • #667,075
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:49pm Jul 9, 2012 8:49pm
my account is frozen what the hell
  • #667,076
  • Jul 9, 2012 9:03pm Jul 9, 2012 9:03pm
Try rebooting your PC and log in your account again. It may help or is just your broker.

Cheers

Quoting acacia357
my account is frozen what the hell
  • #667,077
  • Jul 9, 2012 9:06pm Jul 9, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting GreatNorth
We're approaching friday's close at 2284 and this is usually a good place for a bounce.

We might miss it and jump at 2287.

There is usually minor consolidation around these levels.
Could be, but it will take something to get it back in the channel
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #667,078
  • Jul 9, 2012 9:08pm Jul 9, 2012 9:08pm
Quoting acacia357
my account is frozen what the hell
Check your MT4 version, too. If that's what you're using. Might have to install latest built.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #667,079
  • Jul 9, 2012 9:09pm Jul 9, 2012 9:09pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Could be, but it will take something to get it back in the channel
And the last 4 hr bar took out the last 5 hour bars before it.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #667,080
  • Jul 9, 2012 9:14pm Jul 9, 2012 9:14pm
Hey everyone,

Mostly for the newbies out there (or for the older traders to add some tools to their toolbox) I thought I'd share some information on how I read a chart and you may also learn from it. The big boys aren't here to help anyone.

Chart attached, if you have any questions I can try to help you guys out and vice versa.

My broker is Oanda and they use to provide us with weekend data, but now I don't have access to it so Mercy helped us out with letting us know that 2309/08 was the high on Sunday.

Currently, we're bouncing around the weekly close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart101.jpg Size: 558 KB
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