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Sonic R. System

  • #36,981
  • Jul 9, 2012 10:32am Jul 9, 2012 10:32am
Quoting Acroix70
Loving the system and have been using it with success, how about the higher time frames? School is a couple months away and time will be an issue with me.

Dude you are in school and into forex that young! I envy you. You will make a good trader with that pressision.

There is no spoon....
  • #36,982
  • Jul 9, 2012 10:39am Jul 9, 2012 10:39am
Quoting Acroix70
Loving the system and have been using it with success, how about the higher time frames? School is a couple months away and time will be an issue with me.
You have lots of time and age to learn and trade fx. You find and entered fx very early. I wish you a big success in your way. May i know how did you get in to fx.
  • #36,983
  • Jul 9, 2012 5:34pm Jul 9, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting GuruKrish
You have lots of time and age to learn and trade fx. You find and entered fx very early. I wish you a big success in your way. May i know how did you get in to fx.
I didn't feel like working for anyone and I enjoy a challenging adventure that stumps the smartest people of our society.
  • #36,984
  • Jul 9, 2012 5:38pm Jul 9, 2012 5:38pm
sl moved to BE
  • #36,985
  • Jul 9, 2012 6:03pm Jul 9, 2012 6:03pm
i've been reading this thread for the last two years, and i know how traderathome trades...I am thankful for his real time analysis of trades...


This thread is for Sonic R not Money management....it is about banking PIPS...if you have a margin call...maybe you're risking too much..ROI, R:R is important, but that is all personal preferences..

cheers
  • #36,986
  • Jul 9, 2012 6:35pm Jul 9, 2012 6:35pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi RT,

Yes, it is CT on sonic M15.
I see your TP 1.013 is good.
This is a gridder trade which I see on H4 and D, and I made the entry in the Tokyo morning session. Price swings will be good for me.

Let's see how it will play out.

Cheers!

Edit: I read you other post. Nice harmonics stuff and that TL.
Hi Emmanuel, It looks like you got your swing high, if price can push up to 1.0230/40, I will look to enter another short based on the continuing divergence which is now forming.

With you entering multiple lots I have attached an indi which automatically works out your BE level, if you don't have anything like this then you might find it useful.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ConPos_V1.mq4   4 KB | 532 downloads
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #36,987
  • Jul 9, 2012 10:38pm Jul 9, 2012 10:38pm
GU Commentary:

Been some talk about here about shorting this. Note the PA in the rectangle in the attachment. This is, for lack of better words, what I'll simply call an "accumulation swing". Here, the accumulation swing is almost 45 pips wide. The important thing is not the width of the swing, but the fact of the swing. BBs, SM, whatever you want to call them, first drive the price one way, then the next, to accumulate a position. The width of the swing is not important because they are accumulating throughout, and probably end up with an average price somewhere in the middle. The swings drives up and down are liquidity creation drives. They hit SLs and they trigger "wrong side" pending orders into the market, both actions creating liquidity for the BBs to get more of their "right side" orders filled. And when it is all overwith, the price is pretty much unchanged from before the "accumulation swing", but the BBs just accumulated a shit load of long positions without driving the price up on themselves while they did it!

How do we know the positions built were long positions? The only things we have to go on are:
1. The quick drive down. This followed the swing up, where longs were encouraged into the market. The quick drive down could well have been to hit the SLs on the longs (the immediate transfer of wealth and long positions to the BBs).
2. The highest trading levels are actually at the lowest prices, and the time at the lows exceeded the time at the highs. Both are further indications that the swing was carried out with buying intent, not selling intent.

In light of this, please exercise caution in taking any short position on this pair. And also, this all applies to EU as well. The current drifting down in prices during this asian session can be more BBs attempting to get the price low again so they too can add more longs. There is a GBP high impact release in under 5 hours. Price could shoot up afterwards, a bounce up off the whole number area.

All speculative, but based on yesterdays LS price action and volume. We can't be positive of anything. We can be alert.

-tah
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: july 2012 - 019.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #36,988
  • Jul 9, 2012 11:14pm Jul 9, 2012 11:14pm
Quoting traderathome
GU Commentary:

Been some talk about here about shorting this. Note the PA in the rectangle in the attachment. This is, for lack of better words, what I'll simply call an "accumulation swing". Here, the accumulation swing is almost 45 pips wide. The important thing is not the width of the swing, but the fact of the swing. BBs, SM, whatever you want to call them, first drive the price one way, then the next, to accumulate a position. The width of the swing is not important because they are accumulating throughout, and probably end up with...

Hey man hope we could speak, sent you a PM
  • #36,989
  • Edited Jul 10, 2012 12:01am Jul 9, 2012 11:51pm | Edited Jul 10, 2012 12:01am
Quoting traderathome
GU Commentary:

Been some talk about here about shorting this. Note the PA in the rectangle in the attachment. This is, for lack of better words, what I'll simply call an "accumulation swing". Here, the accumulation swing is almost 45 pips wide. The important thing is not the width of the swing, but the fact of the swing. BBs, SM, whatever you want to call them, first drive the price one way, then the next, to accumulate a position. The width of the swing is not important because they are accumulating throughout, and probably end up with...
Well I agree with you TAH. My reason is slightly different with you.
the middle circle is show us that the price is slightly break up ( it maybe fake break) but the third circle shows that it is still higher thatn the first circle. For me it is confirmation that the price gonna go up. if you say that's a little speculations then so be it. Forex is full of speculations rite? but when you know the rule then the probability of winning is higher that loosing. therefore i bought it in there roughly in near the third circle.

In asia sessions is just like TAH said. It make BB to go long with the cheaper prices.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 27 KB
Money Management and Patience is the Key
  • #36,990
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:02am Jul 10, 2012 12:02am
Quoting traderathome
GU Commentary:

Been some talk about here about shorting this. Note the PA in the rectangle in the attachment. This is, for lack of better words, what I'll simply call an "accumulation swing". Here, the accumulation swing is almost 45 pips wide. The important thing is not the width of the swing, but the fact of the swing. BBs, SM, whatever you want to call them, first drive the price one way, then the next, to accumulate a position. The width of the swing is not important because they are accumulating throughout, and probably end up...
Interesting how you gleamed all that information from that one 15M candle, so I thought I would give you my take on what the 4H chart is telling me. First the PA is in a down trend with price just testing the 20 MA of the BB for the first time resulting in a inv. hammer followed by an engulfing. The MACD is showing convergence and the RSI is below 50 and pointing down, the Stoc is also in the overbought area pointing down. I am short on this pair with 4 open positions and 2 TP targets TP1 1.54 TP2 1.535, if I can find any Sonic R trend following setups on the 15M chart I will look to take them. I am bearish for this pair, but will watch the bottom BB band at around 1.5450, if price fights this area and there is bullish divergence on the H1 or 15M then I may close and look to get back in at an higher level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD H4.jpg Size: 200 KB
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #36,991
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:11am Jul 10, 2012 12:11am
I took short on GU 1.55025
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  • #36,992
  • Edited 12:37am Jul 10, 2012 12:20am | Edited 12:37am
Quoting Robot Trader
Interesting how you gleamed all that information from that one 15M candle, so I thought I would give you my take on what the 4H chart is telling me. First the PA is in a down trend with price just testing the 20 MA of the BB for the first time resulting in a inv. hammer followed by an engulfing. The MACD is showing convergence and the RSI is below 50 and pointing down, the Stoc is also in the overbought area pointing down. I am short on this pair with 4 open positions and 2 TP targets TP1 1.54 TP2 1.535, if I can find any Sonic R trend following...
I believe there is more than a single M15 candle within the rectangle I referred to as the basis for the price/volume study. Furthermore, it is prudent to view the price/volume relationships on M5 and even M1 TFs for specific M15 candles to see how the trading activity stacks up within the spread of a M15 candle. There is a lot more to this than meets your eye.

Anyway, I can be no more certain when price is going up based on the Sonic R. System, than you can be when the price is going down based on all those lagging technical indicators that are definately not a part of the Sonic R. System. The BBs will determine that, as they always do.

Best wishes to you on your short trade.
-tah
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: july 2012 - 019.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #36,993
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:41am Jul 10, 2012 12:41am
Quoting traderathome
I believe there is more than a single M15 candle within the rectangle I referred to as the basis for the price/volume study. Furthermore, it is prudent to view the price/volume relationships on M5 and even M1 TFs for specific M15 candles to see how the trading activity stacks up within the spread of a M15 candle. There is a lot more to this than meets your eye. Anyway, best wishes to you on your short trade.

-tah
I can see that your study resulted in a 60+ pip up move, but I am not sure how that group of candles can still tell you the PA remains bullish. For me your study found the bottom of a short correction and gave a spot on entry level, but why would it still have any influence on PA now?
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #36,994
  • Edited 12:59am Jul 10, 2012 12:45am | Edited 12:59am
Quoting Robot Trader
I can see that your study resulted in a 60+ pip up move, but I am not sure how that group of candles can still tell you the PA remains bullish. For me your study found the bottom of a short correction and gave a spot on entry level, but why would it still have any influence on PA now?
Do you really think that the huge trading outfits all load up for a run during a single London session? And when they have all finished loading up, do you not think they will eventually get around to driving the price far, so that all their loaded positions become nicely profitable?

Ok, some more speculation. GU PA has been down here in an almost 100 pips range for almost three days now. What do you think the BBs have been doing down here? Well, after the run down and into this range, it might be the BBs have been offloading their profitable shorts. They need buyers to do that, don't they? So, this would take some time. Then, if they anticipate a move up, they'd likely start building a long position. They need sellers to do that, don't they. So, this too would take some time. And actually, all the up and down in the range has likely been do to both of these tasks. And, when they are finished taking profit on their shorts and loading up on longs, then they'll get around to another drive to make profits on their new positions.

And I don't enjoy speculating with certainty, because it is a fool's endeavor. Anything can happen, and at any time. So, we wait and see.
  • #36,995
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:52am Jul 10, 2012 12:52am
Quoting Robot Trader
Hi Emmanuel, It looks like you got your swing high, if price can push up to 1.0230/40, I will look to enter another short based on the continuing divergence which is now forming.

With you entering multiple lots I have attached an indi which automatically works out your BE level, if you don't have anything like this then you might find it useful.
Hi RT,

Thank you for the BE level indy. It works great and save me the hassle in manually calculating the levels and prices.

You are very thoughtful and generous in sharing and very kind too.

Thank you and Kind regards,
EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #36,996
  • Edited 11:31pm Jul 10, 2012 12:58am | Edited 11:31pm
Dr. Van Tharp is famous for saying,

"Traders do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets".
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #36,997
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:59am Jul 10, 2012 12:59am
Quoting traderathome
Do you really think that the huge trading outfits all load up for a run during a single London session? And when they have all finished loading up, do you not think they will eventually get around to driving the price far, so that all their loaded positions become nicely profitable?
Well based on your study it was not even a single LS where they loaded up, but a rectangle showing a cluster of about 5 15M candles. So if they are going to load again, why would they not let the price drop lower to get a better fill?

BTW. The Sonic R System uses a 34 MA which you have called the Dragon and this seems to be a fundamental part of the system, but is this not a lagging indicator
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #36,998
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:04am Jul 10, 2012 1:04am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi RT,

Thank you for the BE level indy. It works great and save me the hassle in manually calculating the levels and prices.

You are very thoughtful and generous in sharing and very kind too.

Thank you and Kind regards,
EMMANUEL
You are most welcome
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #36,999
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:12am Jul 10, 2012 1:12am
Quoting Robot Trader
Well based on your study it was not even a single LS where they loaded up, but a rectangle showing a cluster of about 5 15M candles. So if they are going to load again, why would they not let the price drop lower to get a better fill?

BTW. The Sonic R System uses a 34 MA which you have called the Dragon and this seems to be a fundamental part of the system, but is this not a lagging indicator
Why would they not drop the price again to get a better fill? What do you think the asian traders have been doing for these past hours, twiddling their thumbs?

Yes, the Dragon is the 34 EMA, and yes, it is a lagging indicator. We use the width of it, and only together with price itself, to determine a reasonable EP zone, per the Sonic R. rules of engagement. You sound like you are not yet very familiar with the Sonic R. System.

-tah
  • #37,000
  • Edited 2:06am Jul 10, 2012 1:16am | Edited 2:06am
The GU is at a cross roads. I believe both Tah and Robot are right in their analysis. The higher time frames are showing a potential move down. There is a key support line on the weekly that if broken the GU will accelerate down. I also believe there is more evidence for the support line to fail as the pair has not been able to make higher highs in the higher time frames. If the GU breaks down first resistance is 153.41 on the daily TF. I have entered the GU short @ 1.5516.

Since price is under the previous months close that is a bearish bias. I will have to entertain the short position until a daily or 4hr closes above the previous months close.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Weekly Setup.jpg Size: 235 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr TF.jpg Size: 253 KB
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