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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #41,701
  • Jul 8, 2012 6:59am Jul 8, 2012 6:59am
Quoting catwoman
-Snip-
U / CAD

broke up 1,0150 confirming that daily sma200 held the price, at least for now.

to return to the long-term resistance, must finally break up 1,020 and then 1,030.
Why do you think the 1,020 and 1,030 levels are important for the rally? Thanks
  • #41,702
  • Jul 8, 2012 7:13am Jul 8, 2012 7:13am
Quoting Ken A
Why do you think the 1,020 and 1,030 levels are important for the rally? Thanks
1,020 level - maybe a short-term resistence, where is the H1 sma200

1,030 level - is the june high, another possible short-term resistence
  • #41,703
  • Edited 2:07pm Jul 8, 2012 7:21am | Edited 2:07pm
Quoting catwoman
1,020 level - maybe a short-term resistence, where is the H1 sma200

1,030 level - is the june high, another possible short-term resistence
Got it. Thanks

This pair is still unclear to me, though it has bounced off 100 points from SMA200 on last Friday and the Gold price is down at the moment.

Let's see what next week brings on the table.

PS.

Typo 1.2000 instead of 1.0200?

Edit;

You are right. My bad. The , and . confuse me a bit with unusual pink charts.

Need to catch some zzZZZ LOL Meowww (cat greetings).
  • #41,704
  • Jul 8, 2012 7:39am Jul 8, 2012 7:39am
  • #41,705
  • Jul 8, 2012 10:07am Jul 8, 2012 10:07am
Hi traider,

I don’t think goal of the article was to, as you say: „Suggest that printing will devalue as long as there is capacity for surplus.“ Thats nonscence ofc. I think the only goal of the article was to shout: „They are going to print a lot! Take cover!“
Anyway, printing will devalue currency. Thats just it. As you probably know, then comes the question of exporting and importing economy. And if you are exporter, currency may be shielded from devaluation if you also make surplus. I aint sure if I should write more here as this would be for a very long article.

I am glad you posted again and wish I could vouch for the second time. I like your views and mostly agree. Perhaps you could expand a bit in parts I especially like?
Quoting traider
The current situation is unique as the rapid development of the large pools of labour surplus in Asia coupled with the easy access to oil effectively firewalls the Western debt bubble in essence creating a space for the eventual neutralisation of the value disparity that exists (by the use of easing mechanisms).
I dont get this exactly. Do you suggest, that if Asia didn´t have such a surplus from exporting to Europe, they would do what? Dump bonds on the market? Sell EUR? Imo they would. But I dont think they got the most bonds, I think most of them are within ECB, banks across Europe, bond funds like Pimco, or in GS. What they could do, for example, is to dump USD or EUR on the market, but now it is not time for that. I would be glad if you expanded here.

Quoting traider
Not only will these services expand into Asia, they will continue to break new ground in the West as Western labour is increasingly applied to capitalism's services arm
I aint sure if I should agree with you here, this is tough long term call. Isn´t it possible that these services wont expand to Asia, but crash? Asia is strong and they could switch to economy of services without US or EU. And then they could be the ones who expands. I dont think this will happen though and tend to agree with you, as China is the main Asian exporter and I heavily underestimate communisms ability to raise intelligence. And the rest of the Asia is still a bit weaker if compared to EU or US.

Quoting traider
Debt is a necessary evil in a system where annual growth is a mantra.
Well, as I often say, Keynes is turning around in his grave.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #41,706
  • Jul 8, 2012 10:13am Jul 8, 2012 10:13am
Quoting catwoman
some of my thoughts...
Ouch, my eyes!
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #41,707
  • Jul 8, 2012 10:23am Jul 8, 2012 10:23am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ouch, my eyes!
violetful thinking
  • #41,708
  • Jul 8, 2012 11:00am Jul 8, 2012 11:00am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ouch, my eyes!
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #41,709
  • Edited 1:03pm Jul 8, 2012 12:52pm | Edited 1:03pm
Analysis, investment ideas and strategies to encourage dialogue about the global economy involving gold and silver, energy and monetary issues....





Historic Reports



Larry Myles Reports


The gold standard was the world standard of the age of capitalism, increasing welfare, liberty, and democracy, both political and economic.



Market Analysis and Commentary...


Historical Information


Defining the Gold Standard
In response to one of my most oft asked questions: "Can you define the gold standard and its various formats?"
In 1965, all major countries in the world participated in the worldwide gold standard system known as the Bretton Woods arrangement.


Survive Hyperinflation - Common Sense Suggestions (Update #2)
Hyperinflation:When associated with depressions, hyperinflation often occurs when there is a large increase in the money supply not supported by gross domestic product (GDP) growth, resulting in an imbalance in the supply and demand for the money. Left unchecked this causes prices to increase, as the currency loses its value.


The Business of Gold Explained….Reality-Based Investing
....guaranteeing your current and future financial security through the personal ownership of physical gold and silver
If we are prepared to look and listen, we can always count on history to give us guidance. All we have to bring to the table is a willingness to learn from those who have preceded us. And when it comes to recognizing a genuine storehouse of value, even the vile revisionists would have a tough time glossing over this absolute: Throughout history, every government that has created its own brand of state sponsored, faith-backed fiat currency has watched as that brand of paper money devalues and disappears.


The Emergence of Intelligent Gold
The business of gold investment standard model at work...
As my subscriber base continues to expand, and the investment standard outlined in 'the business of gold' continues to gain attention, it is time to respond to the many queries of how effective my standard has been to date. We will concentrate on fact and historical evidence while avoiding anything that smacks of the affected, pedantic and the vain.Inflation and the Fall of the Roman Empire
....Is history going to repeat, Pax Americus?Two centuries ago, in 1776, there were two books published in England, both of which are read avidly today. One of them was Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations and the other was Edward Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Gibbon's multivolume work is the tale of a state that survived for twelve centuries in the West and for another thousand years in the East, at Constantinople.


Money the Root of All Evil?
....have you ever asked yourself, What is the Root of Money?"So you think that money is the root of all evil?" said Francisco d'Anconia. "Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can't exist unless there are goods produced and men able to produce them.



Larry Myles






"The major flaw in the economic structure of western civilization - the slavish belief in the failed Keynesian Economic Theory. - Milton Strauss (Berlin School of Economic Planning)





Larry Myles is neither a geologist nor a financial analyst. I do not purport to offer personal investment advice nor recommendations. While all statements of fact are derived from reliable sources, an d are believed to be accurate, I make no warrant that they are so. You must do your own research and check statements of fact for yourself. My opinions are precisely that, my opinions. I do not accept any responsibility for any gains or losses you may experience resulting from actions taken based on my opinions. If not otherwise qualified, you should consult with your own personal financial advisor before engaging in any investment activities. Larry Myles Reports does not provide individual investment advice, act as an investment advisor, or individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. Larry Myles may actively trade in the investments discussed in this publication. Larry Myles may have a substantial position in the securities recommended and may increase or decrease such positions without notice. I do not know your personal financial circumstances. I am not your personal financial advisor. You must do your own due diligence. By entering this web site, or reading LMR reports, you acknowledge and accept the foregoing.




[email protected]



Larry Myles Reports




The gold standard did not collapse. Governments abolished it in order to pave the way for inflation. The whole grim apparatus of oppression and coercion, policemen, customs guards, penal courts, prisons, in some countries even executioners, had to be put into action in order to destroy the gold standard.


July, 2012


The Keynesian War on Reality
…could retro economics trump post-modern drivel?

June has been an interesting month with many of you offering points of view on the sad state of the American economy. Heading into July, the majority agree that America remains mired in an economic downturn. A few stubborn pro-Keynesian readers continue to insist that America has turned the corner and the country is in spitting distance of a modest recovery.

My position remains crystal; I am not without a lurking suspicion that America is nowhere near recovery and remains in recession (albeit not by strict definition), and the downturn will become more pronounced during the fourth quarter of 2012. Not wishing to be drawn into the distraction of semantics, I am heartened that we all agree on much of what is meant by “double-dip recession” is intuitively clear: it is what occurs when a suspect recovery is so enfeebled and flabby, that the economy falls back into contraction.

When it comes to semantics and the non-adherence to strict definitions, imagine my surprise when Joe Biden commented that millions of Americans are now living in a depression. Shortly after Biden’s blurt, the faux-darling of American liberals trumped the “foot-in-mouth” Vice President by proclaiming that America has been wallowing in a depression for the last few years. Now of course, both loons went on to say that to fix this depression, an increase of government involvement (intervention) was the only option if America wanted to lower the number of unemployed and enjoy a healthy economy. Impelled by strong conviction, I beg to differ.

Facing a Depression Head On
….and winning

I am certainly not talking about how Franklin Delano Roosevelt mishandled America’s Great Depression. When I think of successfully fighting a depression and swapping out suffering for prosperity, I harken back to the days of Warren G. Harding and how he solved the Depression of 1920-21.

I offer only cold hard facts and note that during the reign of the FDR administration, unemployment averaged 17 percent throughout the “New Deal” years (1933-1940). Inspired by a vaglue malevolence toward capitalism, FDR tripled taxes, forced prices above market levels, encouraged the promotion of cartels and monopolies, signed laws that added to the costs of employers to hire labor and authorized the destruction of food as people were lining up at food kitchens! In addition, he launched expensive pyramid-building schemes such as the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) that negatively impacted states receiving TVA subsidized hydro-electric power. Sadly in the end, the only way out of failed and lax theories and corresponding practices and of course stubborn high unemployment was the forced conscription of over 11 million men into the armed forces during World War II.

For those who echo the whine that President Obama inherited a historic shattered economy, let us compare the legacy left to Warren G. Harding. Thanks to habits of unintelligent routine and the progressive interventionist policies of the first three presidents of the 20th century (Teddy Roosevelt, William Taft and Woodrow Wilson), America was economically spent. When Harding became president in 1921, he faced a far worse economic picture than Barack Obama. The data does not lie. From January 1921 to summer’s end of 1922, America’s GDP fell by over 23 percent and the unemployment rate rose from 5 percent to nearly 12 percent.

How did Warren Harding (quickly) turn America from Depression to Prosperity?

By first appointing the extremely competent Andrew Mellon as his Treasury Secretary, Harding and Mellon were able to work with Congress and initiate large scale reductions in both taxes and spending. In other words, he removed the obstacles of government; got out of the way of the American people and let them solve the economy.

Now fast-forward to 2012 with me, and many within the investment community wait with bated breath for a few words of wisdom (?) from Ben Bernanke. In 1921 the Federal Reserve uttered not a peep. Harding, with a few deft and daring moves made his presence felt, by simply getting government out of the way. His plan to cut taxes, slash government waste and remove government interference (regulations) from the private sector was decisive, delivered rapid and positive results.

Reviewing the speeches and reports from the Harding Administration, the president spoke with sledgehammer directness. I could not help but notice the complete absence of business-bashing bleats that were to become so prevalent during the FDR administration, and has now become almost second nature by the current administration.

It is quite clear, the most noted comparison between the prosperous 1920’s and depression-tainted 1930’s, was the massive interventionist policies of the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations! They included obscene meddling by government through massive spending and even more massive budget deficits. Worth noting that two years after John Maynard Keynes sanctioned these government policies, FDR’s Treasury Secretary (Henry Morganthau) wrote in his diary…”We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. After eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started and an enormous debt.”

Comparing notes with three of my (more?) educated pro-Keynesian readers, none of them could readily explain how Harding’s policies could have worked, and worked so quickly to boot! When asked if Harding’s methods could work in current day America, the question was dismissed out of hand with statements like, “we live in a different world” (useless comment) and “not really, as after all, America is no longer on the gold standard”. Nowthat was an illuminating statement.

DISCLAIMER: CurrencyMan

The information posted here at no cost is most valuable. However I am not recommending anyone subscribe as the link is commercial.

The more we know the less we can be set on the wrong road. Have a great FX trading week as we approach 3:00 PM EST and the start of trading in Wellington, New Zealand.

All feedback is welcome before the markets open. Then we focus on making money while trading forex.
  • #41,710
  • Jul 8, 2012 1:31pm Jul 8, 2012 1:31pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
Analysis, investment ideas and strategies to encourage dialogue about the global economy involving gold and silver, energy and monetary issues....
Well, what can I add? Just that I totally agree. You know, when it comes to political orientation, I usually say I am ultraright. By saying so, I mean I am 100% pro, to take everything from government. Unfortunately, you cant do that, I know. I have a friend, who is a historician, and a bit leftist. We always sit in a pub and argue what can and cannot be removed from the state.

My current stance is that state must have only this: Ministry of Infrastructure (free flow of work force, goods and capital), of Defence, of Forreign affairs(free flow abroad), of School (Education, Culture), of Finance.

Right now, we are arguing about Social services, which is tough subject. My friend insists that social network will help to the ones who do want to work but have obstacles. I say that untill we live in democracy you cant have surplus running social system since people are idiots and will simply vote for the guy who sets the line lower for the lazy ones. This, combined with aging population creates enormous pressure on public finances.

Moreover, I think the state could even run without central bank and be lending on a secondary market. CB mandate to watch inflation and employment could be forwarded to Ministry of Finance.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #41,711
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:03pm Jul 8, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
The gold standard did not collapse. Governments abolished it in order to pave the way for inflation. The whole grim apparatus of oppression and coercion, policemen, customs guards, penal courts, prisons, in some countries even executioners, had to be put into action in order to destroy the gold standard.
Ah I forgot the important part. Although I find the article educational and nice, the headline is a bit misleading.

Governments abolished... It sounds like there was an option to stay on gold standard. There was not. Since bimetalism has fallen (Since local goverments could easily davalue by adding worse metals in coins) gold was gaining value. This lead to deflation and in times of globalization, you´d better be standing on the exporters side.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #41,712
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:23pm Jul 8, 2012 2:23pm
Eu at 1.2230 probable AB=CD buy, tgt at 1.24.

forexBOOM
  • #41,713
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:24pm Jul 8, 2012 2:24pm
Quoting Ken A
I have gold closed at 1,582.90 - Is it moving on the weekend?
no, you are correct. My data feed I got on the market close was inaccurate. I apologize for the misinformation
  • #41,714
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:33pm Jul 8, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting forexboom
On 1D chart a bearish bat is forming. I'm entering now long with a sl below 1.2291 and a tp of 1.3170. This is just my trade idea.

forexBOOM
Quoting forexboom
Eu at 1.2230 probable AB=CD buy, tgt at 1.24.

forexBOOM
Maybe you should start looking at taking a few shorts. You might be more successful...
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #41,715
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:37pm Jul 8, 2012 2:37pm
Hope everyone had a nice weekend.

Looking at Oanda and XE, looks like we have a gap down of around 30+ pips so far. Would like to see continuation from Friday's move, but hopefully we can close gap first in order to have an opportunity to enter another short position to start the week. GL

FYI - If anyone is interested there is a potential trade setup on AUD/CAD. It is extremely overbought and also near the 61.8% fib retrace on the daily Feb-May H/L. Worth taking a look and monitoring.
  • #41,716
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:40pm Jul 8, 2012 2:40pm
Quoting Cgb
Maybe you should start looking at taking a few shorts. You might be more successful...
Actually for once I fully agree with Boomer.
Remember my H4 target of 1.2225/35? Well we've reached it. So, from a technical perspective, I am now expecting an ABC correction. I have not yet calculated where that would take us but 1.24 seems reasonable. I will post charts and analysis on this later as I am heading out for the evening.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #41,717
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:44pm Jul 8, 2012 2:44pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Actually for once I fully agree with Boomer.
Remember my H4 target of 1.2225/35? Well we've reached it. So, from a technical perspective, I am now expecting an ABC correction. I have not yet calculated where that would take us but 1.24 seems reasonable. I will post charts and analysis on this later as I am heading out for the evening.
Ive been screaming about the 1.2219-1.2250 area for some time as well

Low end is 1.2184 with an overshoot. A break and close below there opens up the 1.2033

I said recently I believe our summer channel will be 1.2200-1.2700

Im still sticking to that so I willbe a buyer against the prevailing trend with confirmed rejections of these areas and play this channel

Details and trade specifics to come
  • #41,718
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:46pm Jul 8, 2012 2:46pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Ive been screaming about the 1.2219-1.2250 area for some time as well

Low end is 1.2184 with an overshoot. A break and close below there opens up the 1.2033

I said recently I believe our summer channel will be 1.2200-1.2700

Im still sticking to that so I willbe a buyer against the prevailing trend with confirmed rejections of these areas and play this channel

Details and trade specifics to come
Hi Wulfgar. Can you post your chart showing the channel if you get a chance? TY.
  • #41,719
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:50pm Jul 8, 2012 2:50pm
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Hi Wulfgar. Can you post your chart showing the channel if you get a chance? TY.

I actually dont get my channels off of charts

Its a data mining feed comprised of sort of a stew of mathematical computations/fibs/indies

I really dont actually use charts to set my trades up, only numbers

Havent opened a chart in months to be honest.

sorry my friend, watching candles open and close just makes me crazy and gives me anxiety and I make bad trades using them.
  • #41,720
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:53pm Jul 8, 2012 2:53pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
Analysis, investment ideas and strategies to encourage dialogue about the global economy involving gold and silver, energy and monetary issues....


I offer only cold hard facts and note that during the reign of the FDR administration, unemployment averaged 17 percent throughout the “New Deal” years (1933-1940). .
I tend to be wary of blogs that offer "ony cold hard facts" and then in the very same sentence offer instead an outright falsehood and a massaged piece of data to bolster an argument. The New Deal years ran from 1933 to 1938 and using an averaged unemployment rate over the years the blogger chooses fails to admit the size of the hole FDR inherited upon entering office. The policies enacted during FDR's first 100 days reversed both the unemployment rate and the decline in GDP.

There are valid arguments for various points of view on the Great Depression. Using massaged data and falsehoods to try and make points offers nothing to advance the discussion.
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
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