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  • #2,381
  • Jul 6, 2012 11:28am Jul 6, 2012 11:28am
An example of a not so obvious buyers trap on EU this morning. This is the last time I'll be discussing these on here.
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  • #2,382
  • Jul 6, 2012 11:37am Jul 6, 2012 11:37am
Sold GN at 1.9432
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  • #2,383
  • Jul 6, 2012 12:52pm Jul 6, 2012 12:52pm
Quoting Balhana
Sold GN at 1.9432
Closed 2/3 at 1.9412 for +40 pips and moved SL to BE+1. My TP1 was 1.9400 level but it is late Friday.....
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  • #2,384
  • Jul 6, 2012 2:57pm Jul 6, 2012 2:57pm
Quoting xmzhang
Yes, there it is, sell PA is a 10m-PB, could also be a LTF bulltrap that triggered ............... lets see
Final update, as anticipated price dropped exactly to the base of the 1H flagpole (dotted blue line), closed both positions at the same time for about 120 pips. The optimal TF to enter would be the 2m-TF, here price generated a 2m-BEOB that closed below that minor PPZ, it would've given about 6 pips more of a profit Have a good weekend traders ................
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Pipcrawler
  • #2,385
  • Jul 6, 2012 2:58pm Jul 6, 2012 2:58pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Final update - SL hit on the last remaining position today, end result +25.7R
Beautifull trade, very good return, you only need one or two of these
Pipcrawler
  • #2,386
  • Jul 7, 2012 12:21am Jul 7, 2012 12:21am
Quoting Balhana
Closed 2/3 at 1.9412 for +40 pips and moved SL to BE+1. My TP1 was 1.9400 level but it is late Friday.....
Hit TP2 (1.9385) for +47 pips (+87 pips in total).
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  • #2,387
  • Jul 7, 2012 6:31pm Jul 7, 2012 6:31pm
Hi Mark

Long time. Just bought a flat that has no gas, water... worse still, no internet!

Anyway, I'm going over some background reading and re-evaluating some past trades.

I'm going through your old pasts as I'm sure you've written in a single entry key examples of a) FTB entries b) False breakouts and c) True breakouts. My interest lies in the latter. Attached is a chart I miserably LOST money on (but I won't go into that). What I would like to know is how you evaluate a TRUE breakout. To me this chart was showing pressure to the down side during its moment of consolidation around the 6,500 BRN. Once it broke, there was no looking back.

Is this pressure around a supply and demand zone all you look out for technically?

Thanks in advance

Tomek
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  • #2,388
  • Jul 8, 2012 5:15am Jul 8, 2012 5:15am
Quoting 5.25
Hi Mark

Long time. Just bought a flat that has no gas, water... worse still, no internet!

Anyway, I'm going over some background reading and re-evaluating some past trades.

I'm going through your old pasts as I'm sure you've written in a single entry key examples of a) FTB entries b) False breakouts and c) True breakouts. My interest lies in the latter. Attached is a chart I miserably LOST money on (but I won't go into that). What I would like to know is how you evaluate a TRUE breakout. To me this chart was showing pressure to the...
Hi Tomek,

Congrats on the flat purchase, I think it's a good time to be buying at the moment ... ha, yes internet is more important than gas and water lol!

This Dax chart is a great example of price pressure. As I'm sure you know trading breakouts by entering on the pure break of an SR etc can be rather risky if doing it 'blindly' as the chance of a false breakout is relatively high.

Hence we want to look at scenario's where the probability of the breakout being a 'true' one is relatively good and the main way I do this is to look for price pressure at an SR.

For me price pressure means an SR being hit multiple times in quick succession. If a wedge pattern also forms then this is additional confluence to the setup (like in the Dax example - lower highs formed by lower bounces from each touch of the SR - lower bounces means decreasing strength of the demand at the SR).

With the Dax setup price acted exactly like it should - the breakout 'rush' which then has follow through momentum without any material retracement.

Waiting for the FTB in such a scenario is pointless because the chance of an FTB happening any-time soon is low and the good probability setup is the pure breakout trade.

Above all we need to remember to view SR's as clusters of supply / demand and thus with each hit (in this case of the support and thus demand within the support zone) price is CONSUMING demand within the support zone - if this happens in relatively quick succession then the demand is being quickly consumed and the lack of a bounce indicates the strength of the supply sitting above...this happens until we get to the point where the remaining demand is so weak that price just smashes through and doesn't look back.
  • #2,389
  • Jul 8, 2012 6:05am Jul 8, 2012 6:05am
Quoting lovejoy80
Hi Tomek,

Congrats on the flat purchase, I think it's a good time to be buying at the moment ... ha, yes internet is more important than gas and water lol!

This Dax chart is a great example of price pressure. As I'm sure you know trading breakouts by entering on the pure break of an SR etc can be rather risky if doing it 'blindly' as the chance of a false breakout is relatively high.
Thanks for the detailed explanation. Funnily enough I'm going through one of your videos that goes through the order flow behind it.

I've always been more inclined to play the retest or of course the false breakout, I found the true breakout more a 50/50 setup. I'm sure that's down to my own experience though and realise how effective it can if you understand the PA behind it.

The flat is in the last remaining undiscovered Victorian suburbs of London. Great views of the city from my living room (If I ever get to move in!) Bit of a project and investment. No different to trading I think, only without the DIY.
  • #2,390
  • Jul 9, 2012 2:56pm Jul 9, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting 5.25
Thanks for the detailed explanation. Funnily enough I'm going through one of your videos that goes through the order flow behind it.

I've always been more inclined to play the retest or of course the false breakout, I found the true breakout more a 50/50 setup. I'm sure that's down to my own experience though and realise how effective it can if you understand the PA behind it.

The flat is in the last remaining undiscovered Victorian suburbs of London. Great views of the city from my living room (If I ever get to move in!) Bit of a project...
Yes, trading pure breakouts is riskier because a lot of pure breakouts will end up as false breaks of some sort. I would agree that trading them blindly is more like 50/50 (dependant on trade management etc).

But in certain situations a pure breakout becomes a good probability trade. I categorise these into a) price pressure of an SR zone and b) price patterns which in themselves indicate a specific breakout direction (i.e. the price action within the pattern is telling us which direction price is likely to head) - an example being the bull / bear flag.
  • #2,391
  • Jul 9, 2012 5:49pm Jul 9, 2012 5:49pm
Running a tight stop on this one. Clear breakout, looking to re-enter on the FTB of daily swing low close at 98.856 (2012.06.28 bar). SL 99.123, target 98.027.

Keen to hear your thoughts Mark.
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  • #2,392
  • Jul 10, 2012 2:55am Jul 10, 2012 2:55am
Quoting 5.25
Running a tight stop on this one. Clear breakout, looking to re-enter on the FTB of daily swing low close at 98.856 (2012.06.28 bar). SL 99.123, target 98.027.

Keen to hear your thoughts Mark.
I've got the same setup on my watchlist, but I'll be playing it more from a H1 perspective and looking for the supply zone marked to hold.

So I'll be looking for an entry within the 98.70-80 range.
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  • #2,393
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:39am Jul 10, 2012 4:39am
Bought GJ at 123.20
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  • #2,394
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:55am Jul 10, 2012 4:55am
Quoting Balhana
Bought GJ at 123.20
Closed 1/2 at 123.43 for +23 pips.
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  • #2,395
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:55am Jul 10, 2012 4:55am
Sold ozzie @ 6H-supply,
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Pipcrawler
  • #2,396
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:25am Jul 10, 2012 5:25am
I didn't take the GJ long or AU short, didn't perceive there to be enough value to the FLR/S.

There were definitely some nice traps this morning on the Yens if you could have gotten in early.

I'm currently long UCHF - based on chart below (15min close above the SR)...I'm sure you all know why by now.

Same setup on EU of course and USDx 'spiked' it's demand zone too.
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  • #2,397
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:50am Jul 10, 2012 5:50am
Quoting xmzhang
Sold ozzie @ 6H-supply,
@#%^& closed @ BE
Pipcrawler
  • #2,398
  • Jul 10, 2012 6:27am Jul 10, 2012 6:27am
Bought GU at 1.5525
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  • #2,399
  • Jul 10, 2012 6:34am Jul 10, 2012 6:34am
Bought E/J - beartrap setup
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Pipcrawler
  • #2,400
  • Jul 10, 2012 6:36am Jul 10, 2012 6:36am
Quoting xmzhang
@#%^& closed @ BE
Low volume/participation probably until Wednesday Fed news and Thursday Ozzie.....

Thanks for all the great charts !

Michael
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Be like water.
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