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AUD/USD

  • #48,741
  • Jul 6, 2012 12:35am Jul 6, 2012 12:35am
Quoting HeavenBlade
On the surface it's easy to see why AUD is going down long term, but there is no easy explanation and this idea may very well be wrong. The past 2 years shows that AUD has been doing well above parity to USD. Is this an overvaluation, or is the global market really changing? It'd be great if anyone with in depth knowledge in this aspect is willing to share.
Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. --- Sir John Templeton


while we have bear member in this thread, i assume its still save to accumulate AUD and other risk asset.

i will careful if all member become bull. i hope i can remember this quote when that time come.
  • #48,742
  • Jul 6, 2012 1:08am Jul 6, 2012 1:08am
Quoting redbox
Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. --- Sir John Templeton


while we have bear member in this thread, i assume its still save to accumulate AUD and other risk asset.

i will careful if all member become bull. i hope i can remember this quote when that time come.
When will you know whtn the time comes?
I think Templeton further said, Bull markets creep up when you least expect them.
Some people think we are already in a Bull Market.
If you read the AAII sentiment index, its very bearish.
Is that maximum pessismsm
Interesting times indeed hehe
  • #48,743
  • Jul 6, 2012 1:11am Jul 6, 2012 1:11am
Good Morning!
I see that 1.0243 works as a great resistance (it was a D1 resistance and now works as a support). I will trade to a bigger correction from the following levels:1,0285 and 1,0295 Stp: 1,0330 Tgt: 1,0205 and 1,0155
Good Luck!
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"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #48,744
  • Jul 6, 2012 2:34am Jul 6, 2012 2:34am
Quoting DaddyBear
Water is always flowing to the lower spots. Currently I am holding some short positions from this morning's crazy move. Will unload all of them before Aussie moves side way tonight. I will get ready for tomorrow's NFP.
I've been shorting this pair for the last couple of days each time it pops up, but not letting them stayed for too long. Closed them by the time I think I have enough pips for the day or by the time I needed to leave the house.
  • #48,745
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:00am Jul 6, 2012 3:00am
Quoting HeavenBlade
It's difficult to know exactly when it will move due to my current lack of knowledge, but from what I know, these are the major points of contention.

The daily chart displays 2 candles, the big bullish candle and the smaller but very obvious bearish candle that just closed. It seems that the next short term target point will be 1.018. If that level breaks, it could drop down to 1.016, the battlefield may change from there.

If enough support comes up from 1.018, we could be looking at a rebound to 1.031. If it breaks, an upshot to 1.045 is possible.

If...
AUD will follow Gold and gold will sink in long run "big move correction"
i watch and concern about 1.180 AUD
  • #48,746
  • Edited 5:04am Jul 6, 2012 3:22am | Edited 5:04am
See double TOP on 4h frame, and the MACD is pointing downward.
Is it going down?
Put sell from 1.02624
Let's see what happen next...

"very looong consolidation to go down..."
Combination of Edge, Pivot Zone, ADR and magic of PA is A+ Probability
  • #48,747
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:24am Jul 6, 2012 3:24am
Quoting egkid
AUD will follow Gold and gold will sink in long run "big move correction"
i watch and concern about 1.180 AUD
What makes you beleive it will sink?
I dont think it will pump up to high values in a while and think it will be rangebound with support around 1500.

I dont see AUD getting to 1.18 at all, not unless USD becomes severely weakened.
  • #48,748
  • Jul 6, 2012 5:06am Jul 6, 2012 5:06am
Quoting Zac
What makes you beleive it will sink?
I dont think it will pump up to high values in a while and think it will be rangebound with support around 1500.

I dont see AUD getting to 1.18 at all, not unless USD becomes severely weakened.
U can say i got the map of each move
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  • #48,749
  • Jul 6, 2012 5:23am Jul 6, 2012 5:23am
I know this is an AUD/USD thread, but I am sure some of you have traded other Aussie pairs. In regards to AUD/JPY, I heard that funds, among other traders, use this as an indicator on what the market will do. For instance, AUD/JPY is down so will the markets. I believe it was due to the Aussie dollar being a "risk" currency and the interest rates between the two currencies.

Has anyone heard anything on this?
  • #48,750
  • Jul 6, 2012 5:37am Jul 6, 2012 5:37am
My (stupid) guess:

1- down, to 180 (around 9-10 July) <- reason: bullish trend is there
2- up, to 400+ (maybe 500)
3- oh, my god
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #48,751
  • Jul 6, 2012 6:21am Jul 6, 2012 6:21am
Quoting irfandbl
D1 chart is showing me divergence

Attachment

1.0370 is also the 61.8 fib from the daily high of the 29th of February 2012. So I'm guessing it would be a good short opportunity. IF it gets there.
After looking at the daily chart many times, now I believe the high possibility of hitting 1.0370 in coming sessions.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,752
  • Jul 6, 2012 6:26am Jul 6, 2012 6:26am
Quoting DaddyBear
After looking at the daily chart many times, now I believe the high possibility of hitting 1.0370 in coming sessions.
But, before that happens, Aussie has to come down a little bit.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,753
  • Jul 6, 2012 7:03am Jul 6, 2012 7:03am
Quoting DaddyBear
After looking at the daily chart many times, now I believe the high possibility of hitting 1.0370 in coming sessions.
OR 1.0170
  • #48,754
  • Jul 6, 2012 7:18am Jul 6, 2012 7:18am
Quoting egkid
OR 1.0170
I'd say going to the direction of 1.0170 first.

Job number could be bad, so it goes down first.
After people realize the possibility of QE3, it goes up. -IMHO-
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,755
  • Jul 6, 2012 7:19am Jul 6, 2012 7:19am
we will see in 10 min time
up or down first
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  • #48,756
  • Jul 6, 2012 7:35am Jul 6, 2012 7:35am
Quoting DaddyBear
I'd say going to the direction of 1.0170 first.

Job number could be bad, so it goes down first.
After people realize the possibility of QE3, it goes up. -IMHO-
HERE WE GO!
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,757
  • Jul 6, 2012 7:41am Jul 6, 2012 7:41am
Quoting DaddyBear
After looking at the daily chart many times, now I believe the high possibility of hitting 1.0370 in coming sessions.
OR 1.0170
Possible i think both point need to b touch depends on my 1H
let's watch
  • #48,758
  • Jul 6, 2012 7:43am Jul 6, 2012 7:43am

Fack
  • #48,759
  • Jul 6, 2012 7:49am Jul 6, 2012 7:49am
Quoting egkid
OR 1.0170
Possible i think both point need to b touch depends on my 1H
let's watch
Bulls shall be able to defend 1.0170, otherwise .....
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,760
  • Jul 6, 2012 7:53am Jul 6, 2012 7:53am
Quoting DaddyBear
Bull shall be able to defend 1.0170.
I'm no big timer but I've added a small "emotional support" for the bulls.
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