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AUD/USD

  • #48,721
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:11pm Jul 5, 2012 7:11pm
I mean literally all time low this is my first since i have been forex trading
  • #48,722
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:22pm Jul 5, 2012 7:22pm
Quoting Davit
Its a pity you missed my point.
You forgot to compare same stats to eu or others.Try Spain's,Greece,Italy,Portugal,Irland,Australia and Japans unemployment numbers!!!!It may wake you up!


even Japan in "recession", their unemployment is very low.
  • #48,723
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:52pm Jul 5, 2012 7:52pm
Quoting redbox


even Japan in "recession", their unemployment is very low.
Pagi bro, any ideas where this pair might go for today? You're good on fundies, maybe you could give us some heads up
  • #48,724
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:57pm Jul 5, 2012 7:57pm
Quoting Silencer
i think australia has a lower unemployment rate then usa...
Aussie unemployment rate 5.1%
  • #48,725
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:11pm Jul 5, 2012 8:11pm
Big move down possible. NFP and China news next week could really start the bearish slide. Let's see.....
  • #48,726
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:17pm Jul 5, 2012 8:17pm
Quoting irfandbl
Pagi bro, any ideas where this pair might go for today? You're good on fundies, maybe you could give us some heads up
Sorry to butt in. irfandbl, Just follow the water.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,727
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:21pm Jul 5, 2012 8:21pm
Aud at approx support @02510 here, break lower may expose 1.0123
  • #48,728
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:35pm Jul 5, 2012 8:35pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Sorry to butt in. irfandbl, Just follow the water.
Thanks Papa, the thing is according to my yesterday's calculation the water is flowing north, but the D1 divergence scares the hell out of me. And some says that nothing goes up in a straight line...would it be wise to open new position(s) before the NFP data show up today?
  • #48,729
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:36pm Jul 5, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting irfandbl
Pagi bro, any ideas where this pair might go for today? You're good on fundies, maybe you could give us some heads up
i'm not adding more position with central banks stimulus.
i'm afraid with incoming china data will be very bad.

i think QE3 is not coming before election and fiscal cliff being canceled.
  • #48,730
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:38pm Jul 5, 2012 8:38pm
Quoting redbox
i'm not adding more position with central banks stimulus.
i'm afraid with incoming china data will be very bad.

i think QE3 is not coming before election and fiscal cliff being canceled.
Would a good NFP data indicate QE3 is off the table?
  • #48,731
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:50pm Jul 5, 2012 8:50pm
Quoting redbox
i'm not adding more position with central banks stimulus.
i'm afraid with incoming china data will be very bad.

i think QE3 is not coming before election and fiscal cliff being canceled.
What is your TF and target for AUD/USD if I may ask?

I have been buying the dips upon retracement to parity from the drop in May.

Personally feel the AUD has a strong position in relation to the global economic climate and would like some input from other fundies.
  • #48,732
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:52pm Jul 5, 2012 8:52pm
http://www.forexcrunch.com/nfp-previ...r-3-scenarios/
  • #48,733
  • Jul 5, 2012 9:06pm Jul 5, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting redbox
i'm not adding more position with central banks stimulus.
i'm afraid with incoming china data will be very bad.

i think QE3 is not coming before election and fiscal cliff being canceled.
Not if they continue cooking.
just speculating
  • #48,734
  • Jul 5, 2012 9:24pm Jul 5, 2012 9:24pm
Quoting irfandbl
Thanks Papa, the thing is according to my yesterday's calculation the water is flowing north, but the D1 divergence scares the hell out of me. And some says that nothing goes up in a straight line...would it be wise to open new position(s) before the NFP data show up today?
Water is always flowing to the lower spots. Currently I am holding some short positions from this morning's crazy move. Will unload all of them before Aussie moves side way tonight. I will get ready for tomorrow's NFP.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,735
  • Jul 5, 2012 9:33pm Jul 5, 2012 9:33pm
going long from here 1.0250 going to ride it up to 1.0315 ....pa's been repeating itself to much this week to not do it one more time tonight and/or tomorrow....most reactions to news and economic figures have almost all been called or expected....nfp is no exception......but I'm looking to get back short after the spike up anywhere above my tp point...good luck everyone...happy huntng....
  • #48,736
  • Jul 5, 2012 9:49pm Jul 5, 2012 9:49pm
Quoting Esssex
What is your TF and target for AUD/USD if I may ask?
about TF, i will hold as long as possible. if condition getting better, i will add more and more. if i able to lock a position, i will looking to open another position since the first is assume risk-free.

no target limit.

i will close all position if something "really" bad happens like a big bank collapse, or GDP falls sharp. i don't see any threat now.

Quote
I have been buying the dips upon retracement to parity from the drop in May.
nice position then.

Quote
Personally feel the AUD has a strong position in relation to the global economic climate and would like some input from other fundies.

agree, all risk asset have positive correlation, while have negative correlation with safer asset like US bonds.
  • #48,737
  • Jul 5, 2012 10:01pm Jul 5, 2012 10:01pm
Quoting rozario173
Big move down possible. NFP and China news next week could really start the bearish slide. Let's see.....
Agree. Hope we don't get slapped like we did with the Jan NFP...
  • #48,738
  • Jul 5, 2012 10:02pm Jul 5, 2012 10:02pm
Quoting eauyong
Not if they continue cooking.
they can't cooking forever.
  • #48,739
  • Jul 5, 2012 10:08pm Jul 5, 2012 10:08pm
It's difficult to know exactly when it will move due to my current lack of knowledge, but from what I know, these are the major points of contention.

The daily chart displays 2 candles, the big bullish candle and the smaller but very obvious bearish candle that just closed. It seems that the next short term target point will be 1.018. If that level breaks, it could drop down to 1.016, the battlefield may change from there.

If enough support comes up from 1.018, we could be looking at a rebound to 1.031. If it breaks, an upshot to 1.045 is possible.

If it doesn't break, we may be looking at some sideways volley back and forth between 1.031, 1.018, and back again. You can refer to the late Mar/ Apr statistics on the left-most side of the attached chart where price tested 1.045 3 times, only to break all the way down.

The annual forecast for global economy may very well be risk off due to the US/China slow down and the Eurozone crisis. On the surface it's easy to see why AUD is going down long term, but there is no easy explanation and this idea may very well be wrong. The past 2 years shows that AUD has been doing well above parity to USD. Is this an overvaluation, or is the global market really changing? It'd be great if anyone with in depth knowledge in this aspect is willing to share.
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  • #48,740
  • Jul 5, 2012 10:33pm Jul 5, 2012 10:33pm
Quoting petehnm
going long from here 1.0250 going to ride it up to 1.0315 ....pa's been repeating itself to much this week to not do it one more time tonight and/or tomorrow....most reactions to news and economic figures have almost all been called or expected....nfp is no exception......but I'm looking to get back short after the spike up anywhere above my tp point...good luck everyone...happy huntng....

changing up my trade a bit....long from 1.0250 now with tp at 1.0334 and a sell order at 1.0347.....this is why... was looking at the past two months nfp and adp numbers and they were both bad and it move 100+ up and down...looking at all the green data this week including adp we should get the same kind of move to the up side tomorrow plus from what I've seen 1.0350-60 is a nice resistence point....anyway crazy trade for a crazy day....goodnight see ya in the morning...
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