- #666,004
- Jul 5, 2012 10:58pm Jul 5, 2012 10:58pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
- #666,005
- Jul 5, 2012 11:00pm Jul 5, 2012 11:00pm
- | Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,823 Posts
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
- #666,007
- Jul 5, 2012 11:05pm Jul 5, 2012 11:05pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
- #666,008
- Jul 5, 2012 11:06pm Jul 5, 2012 11:06pm
- | Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,823 Posts
It's not worth it now before NFP, and NFP itself is a gamble.
15 pip sl with AU won't do it, that's a definite loss at this place.
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
- #666,010
- Jul 5, 2012 11:12pm Jul 5, 2012 11:12pm
- | Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,823 Posts
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
- #666,011
- Jul 5, 2012 11:17pm Jul 5, 2012 11:17pm
- | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Charting the trades ... | 919 Posts
You should read this if you've never traded a NFP before. 
! Another set of fireworks could be coming your way when the U.S. releases its employment report on Friday. After all, the U.S. jobs market is expected to get back on its feet after hitting a "soft patch" in May. For that month, the non-farm payrolls report posted a disappointing 54,000 increase in hiring then, much less than the expected 161,000 figure.
This time around, the NFP report could print an estimated 87,000 increase in employment for June. Recall that the bleak jobs figure in the earlier month was blamed on the supply chain disruptions caused by the earthquake in Japan. At that time, slower production in Japan forced U.S. manufacturers, particularly those in the automobile industry, to lay off workers.
Now that Japan's industrial production seems to be back on its feet with a 5.7% month-over-month rebound, the damage on the U.S. economy may have been erased. With that, a positive spillover on the U.S. jobs market could take place as automakers hire back more workers.
Still, the unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 9.1%. In fact, the U.S. would need an additional 200,000 jobs in order to bring their jobless rate down a notch to 9.0%. That sounds highly unlikely but I'd like to be prepared with a game plan in any case...
How to trade the NFP
If the NFP manages to beat forecasts, then EUR/USD's price action could mimic the release in May 6. The NFP came in with a 244,000 gain, significantly higher than the 185,000 increase initially expected. As a result, EUR/USD experienced a huge 200-pip drop in a span of six hours.
On the other hand, in the event of a weak NFP, then we could expect a reaction similar to last month's release. The NFP report showed a 54,000 figure, which was roughly just a third of the forecast. A look at EUR/USD's chart will show that price rose by 175 pips over a four-hour period.
Looking at the previous two releases, we can conclude that price action had a POSITIVE CORRELATION with results - a better-than-expected result lead to a dollar rally, while a worse-than-expected figure was followed by a sell-off.
One important thing you should also take note of when trading the NFP report is the way price actually moves right after the release. Typically, EUR/USD fakes one direction first THEN reverses and rallies in the opposite direction. In the last two releases, this is exactly what happened.
The source is babypips.com, you should check out the link and understand the behaviour of PA during the NFP.
Read more: http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipono...#ixzz1zow0IplA
! Another set of fireworks could be coming your way when the U.S. releases its employment report on Friday. After all, the U.S. jobs market is expected to get back on its feet after hitting a "soft patch" in May. For that month, the non-farm payrolls report posted a disappointing 54,000 increase in hiring then, much less than the expected 161,000 figure.This time around, the NFP report could print an estimated 87,000 increase in employment for June. Recall that the bleak jobs figure in the earlier month was blamed on the supply chain disruptions caused by the earthquake in Japan. At that time, slower production in Japan forced U.S. manufacturers, particularly those in the automobile industry, to lay off workers.
Now that Japan's industrial production seems to be back on its feet with a 5.7% month-over-month rebound, the damage on the U.S. economy may have been erased. With that, a positive spillover on the U.S. jobs market could take place as automakers hire back more workers.
Still, the unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 9.1%. In fact, the U.S. would need an additional 200,000 jobs in order to bring their jobless rate down a notch to 9.0%. That sounds highly unlikely but I'd like to be prepared with a game plan in any case...
How to trade the NFP
If the NFP manages to beat forecasts, then EUR/USD's price action could mimic the release in May 6. The NFP came in with a 244,000 gain, significantly higher than the 185,000 increase initially expected. As a result, EUR/USD experienced a huge 200-pip drop in a span of six hours.
On the other hand, in the event of a weak NFP, then we could expect a reaction similar to last month's release. The NFP report showed a 54,000 figure, which was roughly just a third of the forecast. A look at EUR/USD's chart will show that price rose by 175 pips over a four-hour period.
Looking at the previous two releases, we can conclude that price action had a POSITIVE CORRELATION with results - a better-than-expected result lead to a dollar rally, while a worse-than-expected figure was followed by a sell-off.
One important thing you should also take note of when trading the NFP report is the way price actually moves right after the release. Typically, EUR/USD fakes one direction first THEN reverses and rallies in the opposite direction. In the last two releases, this is exactly what happened.
The source is babypips.com, you should check out the link and understand the behaviour of PA during the NFP.
Read more: http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipono...#ixzz1zow0IplA
Please, just slap me around if I'm being silly ...
- #666,012
- Jul 5, 2012 11:17pm Jul 5, 2012 11:17pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
what about AU mate? i have pending sell @ 1.0266,sl 15 pips tp 15pips
"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
- #666,014
- Jul 5, 2012 11:23pm Jul 5, 2012 11:23pm
- | Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,823 Posts
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
- #666,015
- Jul 5, 2012 11:26pm Jul 5, 2012 11:26pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
deleted
If I decide next week to short AU, my target would be 1.0125 or so, that also makes a safer sl possible.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
- #666,018
- Jul 5, 2012 11:28pm Jul 5, 2012 11:28pm
- | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Everyone Breaks Even. | 2,296 Posts
- #666,019
- Jul 5, 2012 11:29pm Jul 5, 2012 11:29pm
- | Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,823 Posts
good morning all
looks like not much happened since NY session
probably another interesting day ahead. not as easy money as yesterday i belive. nfp often makes three swings. i think little depends on actual numbers. my expectation is to see some swing down to yday low, up to around 440 area and than down again towards 280. but that is just guessing. in any way im staying short while below 460
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..