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  • #665,961
  • Jul 5, 2012 10:35pm Jul 5, 2012 10:35pm
Quoting Chicky
What man proposes, God disposes.
but still this is very likely how the market will react. Ive been trading the NFP for about 2 year. What I have learned is that the EUR/USD is not simple to predict, this is why I decided to put more attention to Gold and oil who are more easy to predict.

Since you are one of the most experienced member of this forum, what are your thoughts on the NFP
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #665,962
  • Jul 5, 2012 10:37pm Jul 5, 2012 10:37pm
Quoting mohan76
it's happens due to no communication , next time make a proper communication with your god
yes. don't try to google chat, nor skype.
  • #665,963
  • Jul 5, 2012 10:52pm Jul 5, 2012 10:52pm
Quoting -Melo-
but still this is very likely how the market will react. Ive been trading the NFP for about 2 year. What I have learned is that the EUR/USD is not simple to predict, this is why I decided to put more attention to Gold and oil who are more easy to predict.

Since you are one of the most experience member of thins forum, what are your thoughts on the NFP
Nothing is simple to predict in a short run.

One good way to trade NFP is to either 1) stay away from NFP, or,2) wait until pa hits the nearest long-term support/resistance, set sl just behind that support/resistance and look for at least 1:3 r/r. Be careful with sudden spread widening and platform freezes.

I am longer-term short with no stoploss or takeprofit. Tomorrow's NFP will be just an event for me. A couple of hundred pips up or down won't bring much joy or pain.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #665,964
  • Jul 5, 2012 10:56pm Jul 5, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting mohan76
it's happens due to no communication , next time make a proper communication with your god
I try to establish communication with everybody's God................ but don't have the right WiFi.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #665,965
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:04pm Jul 5, 2012 11:04pm
Quoting Chicky
Nothing is simple to predict in a short run.

One good way to trade NFP is to either 1) stay away from NFP, or,2) wait until pa hits the nearest long-term support/resistance, set sl just behind that support/resistance and look for at least 1:3 r/r. Be careful with sudden spread widening and platform freezes.

I am longer-term short with no stoploss or takeprofit. Tomorrow's NFP will be just an event for me. A couple of hundred pips up or down won't bring much joy or pain.
I use to prefer trading for long term. But for the past month, trading for long term was not profitable. im still waiting for sign where I can go long term, either short or long.

What Im doing right now is improving my scalping skills. being able to trade both long term and short term is my goal.

about your short, I have noticed that people usually change their mind week after week. We may be extremely bullish next week
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #665,966
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:08pm Jul 5, 2012 11:08pm
Quoting -Melo-

Action for the NFP



If positive :

1) I will long Nymex crude oil

2) I will short EUR/CAD. why, simply because oil price are likely to go up and if oil price go up, the CAD will also go up. But since its a good US news, the CAD will be more efficient against the EUR or GBP than USD

3) I will short gold. Gold will go down big time in this scenario

If negative :

1)...
Market talk is that QE3 is still weighing on some BB trader's minds(When will they realized there won't be QE3).

So I'd still proceed with caution with the chance that the mindset "good news is good news and bad news is good news." still lingering.

I'll probably play the USD/JPY for NFP and build my position trades.

One risk on your EUR/CAD trade though, is contrary to what we think, the EUR correlation with oil is pretty damn strong if you backtest the data. Just something to keep on your mind.
  • #665,967
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:12pm Jul 5, 2012 11:12pm
Quoting Chicky
I try to establish communication with everybody's God................ but don't have the right WiFi.
try this

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FZyQKk-nUm...arp_750pix.jpg
Mohan
  • #665,968
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:14pm Jul 5, 2012 11:14pm
Quoting Chicky
..........wait until pa hits the nearest long-term support/resistance,.....
I have these three levels of resistances:

1. This yellow horizontal line at 1.2430

2. 1.2512 which is lower boundary of a strong resistance

3. 1.2596 which is top of the current downward channel
Attached Image
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #665,969
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:16pm Jul 5, 2012 11:16pm
Quoting Esssex
Market talk is that QE3 is still weighing on some BB trader's minds(When will they realized there won't be QE3).

So I'd still proceed with caution with the chance that the mindset "good news is good news and bad news is good news." still lingering.

I'll probably play the USD/JPY for NFP and build my position trades.

One risk on your EUR/CAD trade though, is contrary to what we think, the EUR correlation with oil is pretty damn strong if you backtest the data. Just something to keep on your mind.
Well, in the short term, Gold will react strongly on this event. A nice figure will suggest that the US economy is improving, thus the world economy is likely to full and this is why I think oil will go Up. For EUR, as I said, be have been bearish for the whole week, people will have to close some of their shorts. they are more likely to close them if the NFP figures are negative. And finely, no Oil doesn't react with currency. If oil price go up, the Canadian dollar will follow. Since its a good news for the US, I will not trade the USD/Cad, but rather the EUR/Cad. the Euro will somehow weaken while the Cad will strengthen.
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #665,970
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:17pm Jul 5, 2012 11:17pm
Quoting Esssex
Market talk is that QE3 is still weighing on some BB trader's minds(When will they realized there won't be QE3).

So I'd still proceed with caution with the chance that the mindset "good news is good news and bad news is good news." still lingering.

I'll probably play the USD/JPY for NFP and build my position trades.

One risk on your EUR/CAD trade though, is contrary to what we think, the EUR correlation with oil is pretty damn strong if you backtest the data. Just something to keep on your mind.
Well, in the short term, Gold will react strongly on this event. A nice figure will suggest that the US economy is improving, thus the world economy is likely to follow and this is why I think oil will go Up. For EUR, as I said, be have been bearish for the whole week, people will have to close some of their shorts. they are more likely to close them if the NFP figures are negative. And finely, no Oil doesn't react with currency. If oil price go up, the Canadian dollar will follow. Since its a good news for the US, I will not trade the USD/Cad, but rather the EUR/Cad. the Euro will somehow weaken while the Cad will strengthen.
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #665,971
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:19pm Jul 5, 2012 11:19pm
Quoting -Melo-
Well, in the short term, Gold will react strongly on this event. A nice figure will suggest that the US economy is improving, thus the world economy is likely to full and this is why I think oil will go Up. For EUR, as I said, be have been bearish for the whole week, people will have to close some of their shorts. they are more likely to close them if the NFP figures are negative. And finely, no Oil doesn't react with currency. If oil price go up, the Canadian dollar will follow. Since its a good news for the US, I will not trade the USD/Cad, but...
Just pointing out the potential downside risks for you to keep in mind. I am not saying that the reasoning behind your trades are flawed.
  • #665,972
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:22pm Jul 5, 2012 11:22pm
Quoting tashkent
1.2696... you are one of the most optimistic ppl around. i can see that you are aiming at triple top. but i am not sure the resistance can handle the third attempt.
Long now 12378 wait for 125xxx
Trading 24/h
  • #665,973
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:24pm Jul 5, 2012 11:24pm
Quoting Esssex
Just pointing out the potential downside risks for you to keep in mind. I am not saying that the reasoning behind your trades are flawed.
I understand
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #665,974
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:29pm Jul 5, 2012 11:29pm
Your idea made sense to me; still does. Here's other information which kind of mixes things up a bit though, for me anyway.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-e...urrency-2012-7


Quoting -Melo-

Action for the NFP




If positive :

1) I will long Nymex crude oil

2) I will short EUR/CAD. why, simply because oil price are likely to go up and if oil price go up, the CAD will also go up. But since its a good US news, the CAD will be more efficient against the EUR or GBP than USD

3) I will short gold. Gold will go down big time in this scenario

If negative :

1) I will short...
  • #665,975
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:32pm Jul 5, 2012 11:32pm
Quoting mohan76
try this

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FZyQKk-nUm...arp_750pix.jpg
Nope!

This is better

http://zeninme.com/wp-content/upload...0/posture.jpeg
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #665,976
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:36pm Jul 5, 2012 11:36pm
Quoting uncleti88
maybe this is the bottom you are talking about

but maybe it will fall further... who knows...

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-e...y%25202012.jpg
zone's been shifted to the downside. too risky to call it a bottom.
  • #665,977
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:38pm Jul 5, 2012 11:38pm
sickly scalp today.
Think Different
  • #665,978
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:44pm Jul 5, 2012 11:44pm
Killer Fish wants to know everyones opinion on the Non Farm tomorrow.
  • #665,979
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:53pm Jul 5, 2012 11:53pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
haha any calculation that is say this piece of crap is go down is ok by me haha

I dont have 2187 but I do have 2131 this is the all time mid or average price she ever been, everyone who follow ma,s will understand the magnetic power of mids, however there are some important lows to get through first, each one should be treated with respect, I only looking at historical weekly and daily lows though

soooooo a new weekly low will have taken out this mid 2131 and targeting 1643 next stop

hahahahah this all pie in sky, but has been my plan for...


actually its 1.2144 it was already a very strong line on the downside: it was a clear separator two years ago, when Greece received its first bailout. The round number of 1.20 is of course highly important in the psychological level under that and...............
Below, the 2010 low of 1.1876 is apparent, before the launch value of the euro at 1.17 to the dollar in 1999
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #665,980
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:56pm Jul 5, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting MeInGraySuit
Killer Fish wants to know everyones opinion on the Non Farm tomorrow.
adp number yesterday was positive. unemployment claim number decreased.
my guess is we will prolly have positive number. how the market will react? big question.
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