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Are you a consistently profitable trader?

  • #461
  • Jul 1, 2012 11:46pm Jul 1, 2012 11:46pm
Quoting ha-pattern
You study candles, you said. I didn't see notes for them on a chart of yours that is interesting, and I did see a really neat s/r line you may find useful (since I'm on simulator); the upper two lines are likely of much less value, longterm:
......................
Although I do see your going for causation, because I don't know the reason the s/r line I added should work, except for the unusual symmetry of the patterns around it.
The two upper lines are a pattern I'm more used to drawing.
Below are the charts for a countertrend trade that i am in right now. long GBP/AUD. Since you are a hard core chartist, ha-pattern...i will keep my explanations strictly to charts. I will ignore fundamentals and sentiment analysis of any kind.

below you can see the confluence spot...created by TL(3 touches minimum) combined with WEEKLY s/r LEVELS(untested level) that also serves as a previous market turning point. check chart #1 and #2.

When price reached that confluence spot...i switched to 5mins time frame...and look for a 1,2,3 formation....or a W formation if you like...at the completion of that 1,2,3 formation...i entered...the bottom of that formation is my SL and the top my entry point...making my risk = -21 pips roughly......check chart #3.

I B/E trade when price reach LAYERS OF resistance that i think are mildly significant(those layers have to be at least 1:1 away otherwise i wont enter the trade.). There are ways to B/E...you can offset your risk by selling some...or moved SL to entry point.

YOU TALKED ABOUT CANDLES. Yes...but candles are simply chart patterns like i have said before...isolate the boundaries of any candles and go to lower and lower time frames...you will slowly see that candle or candle pattern morph into a familiar classic technical pattern. This also happens in this case. Look at the 1,2,3 formation(marked on the chart)...on the H1 chart..it is clearly a pinbar. check chart #4.

anyways, there are more explanations on the charts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: #1.jpg Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: #2.jpg Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: #3.jpg Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: #4.jpg Size: 60 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #462
  • Jul 2, 2012 5:20am Jul 2, 2012 5:20am
Quoting ha-pattern
You study candles, you said. I didn't see notes for them on a chart of yours that is interesting, and I did see a really neat s/r line you may find useful (since I'm on simulator); the upper two lines are likely of much less value, longterm:

Attachment

Although I do see your going for causation, because I don't know the reason the s/r line I added should work, except for the unusual symmetry of the patterns around it.
The two upper lines are a pattern I'm more used to drawing.
Is this a NY close chart? Its different from mine and others.
  • #463
  • Jul 2, 2012 5:57am Jul 2, 2012 5:57am
Quoting Skynet
Below are the charts for a countertrend trade that i am in right now. long GBP/AUD. Since you are a hard core chartist, ha-pattern...i will keep my explanations strictly to charts. I will ignore fundamentals and sentiment analysis of any kind.

below you can see the confluence spot...created by TL(3 touches minimum) combined with WEEKLY s/r LEVELS(untested level) that also serves as a previous market turning point. check chart #1 and #2.

When price reached that confluence spot...i switched to 5mins time frame...and look for a 1,2,3 formation....or...
Skynet,

I looked at your charts and there is just one thing I want to say: and !!! You've got something going there for REAL!!! I have put in many, many hours just studying price action etc. You know what you're doing and what you're looking for in your charts. Congrats!!!

Going back to read the detail of your posts later today.

Good stuff! Thanks for taking the time to post.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #464
  • Edited Jul 3, 2012 5:03am Jul 2, 2012 6:03am | Edited Jul 3, 2012 5:03am
Quoting Turveyd
Oddly I see nothing in S/R on anything over M5 seriously, I need to see an area of say 30mins so 6 M5 bars, or 10mins on M1 to show an area of S/R, this is live aswell, historic S/R I've tried it and see zero value with them, talking like 2hours tops before it's just history.

Yes I'm sure you can find examples of S/R working, but for every example you find I'll show you 2 examples of where it failed. There coincidences nothing more.
Turveyd, have you really looked at S/R on H4 and higher? I do see your logic in the six M5 bars idea though. Did you run some numbers on those "coincidences" you were referring to? I haven't but they seem to play out like clock-work to me.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #465
  • Jul 2, 2012 9:20am Jul 2, 2012 9:20am
Quoting Skynet
Below are the charts for a countertrend trade that i am in right now. long GBP/AUD.......
trade update:

GBP/AUD is up by +50 pips from entry point...effectively 2.5times the risk of -21pips.

chart update attached:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-02_10-12_OANDA.jpg Size: 74 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #466
  • Jul 2, 2012 9:24am Jul 2, 2012 9:24am
thank you, sir.

--SKYNET

p.s. good news: gbp/aud up by +50pips....roughly 2.5 times the -21pips risk.

Quoting FX4Newbies
Skynet,

I looked at your charts and there is just one thing I want to say: and !!! You've got something going there for REAL!!! I have put in many, many hours just studying price action etc. You know what you're doing and what you're looking for in your charts. Congrats!!!

Going back to read the detail of your posts later today.

Good stuff! Thanks for taking the time to post.

FX4
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #467
  • Edited 6:23am Jul 3, 2012 4:41am | Edited 6:23am
Quoting Skynet
thank you, sir.

--SKYNET

p.s. good news: gbp/aud up by +50pips....roughly 2.5 times the -21pips risk.
No probs...but not a sir :giggle:

By the way, about how many pairs do you watch/trade? Do you swing trade H4? Congrats on our Gbp-Aud trade!

FX4

P.S. If I could vouch for you 3 times I would. Since I can't do that, here are the other two: .
I like what I've seen of your mindset and attitude...serious, for real and no-nonsense. Also like your approach to trading as a whole. In a nutshell: a true professional. Very glad you came by my thread.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #468
  • Jul 3, 2012 5:27am Jul 3, 2012 5:27am
I am a profitable trader.

The single step which led to profitability in my case:

Learn which market conditions suit you the best and trade only those market conditions on any pair.
Pairs don't matter as long as market conditions are suitable to you.

Obviously if you don't know about MM then there is no chance of profits.

If anyone is interested this article might help:

http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-a...on=read&id=786

Cheers
  • #469
  • Edited 7:33am Jul 3, 2012 5:54am | Edited 7:33am
Quoting neo1599
I am a profitable trader.

The single step which led to profitability in my case:

Learn which market conditions suit you the best and trade only those market conditions on any pair.
Pairs don't matter as long as market conditions are suitable to you.

Obviously if you don't know about MM then there is no chance of profits.

If anyone is interested this article might help:

http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-a...on=read&id=786

Cheers
Congrats!!!

Learn which market conditions suit you the best and trade only those market conditions on any pair.

Amen to that! Successful trading is ultimately about the trader. Once the method has been "found"/developed/put together even tested, then it's ALL about the trader; even in crazy markets.

Thanks for the link...clicked it but can't read it just yet...but I will. Very curious to see what they say. Hope others check it out.

Keep on going .

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #470
  • Jul 3, 2012 10:28am Jul 3, 2012 10:28am
FX4NEWBIES,

thanks for all your kind words. and the vouch. i have vouch for you too. excellent work. i look forward to learning a lot from you.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #471
  • Edited Jul 4, 2012 6:42am Jul 3, 2012 10:33am | Edited Jul 4, 2012 6:42am
Quoting Skynet
FX4NEWBIES,

thanks for all your kind words. and the vouch. i have vouch for you too. excellent work. i look forward to learning a lot from you.
Thanks for the vouch! Have been going through some of your other posts...good stuff (except for those crazy pics)...can't read them fast enough . Lots I can learn about trading from you too.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #472
  • Edited Jul 5, 2012 2:16am Jul 4, 2012 2:31pm | Edited Jul 5, 2012 2:16am
Quoting Skynet
ON S/R

Like every other technical tool...s/r needs to be traded properly to be effective.

I trade S/R two ways:

#1. I trade s/r in the direction of the trend--in this specific case, i dont take my s/r lower than h4.

#2. I trade the s/r in an anti-trend direction...this is a special case and certain particular conditions need to be met....in this case, my s/r is usually weekly, monthly, sometimes, daily.

(b)Of course, i want a linear regression confluence at the point of entry too.

(c)This specific s/r has to be at previous market turning...
Okay Skynet,

Now I have some time to go through your posts...

Like every other technical tool...s/r needs to be traded properly to be effective.

Agreed.


#1. I trade s/r in the direction of the trend--in this specific case, i dont take my s/r lower than h4.

I have found that S/R on H4 that coincide with M,W,D levels can be very effective.


#2. I trade the s/r in an anti-trend direction...this is a special case and certain particular conditions need to be met....in this case, my s/r is usually weekly, monthly, sometimes, daily.

I'm sure this is a special case...is this a bounce of those S/R areas?

Lots to decipher here...will be continuing.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #473
  • Jul 4, 2012 3:45pm Jul 4, 2012 3:45pm
Hello all -

Been watching this thread for a while, lurking like a stalker. FX4 - Thanks for this little goldmine of wisdom.

I started trading fx about 2 years ago, after playing with smallcap stocks for a couple years. Am I consistently profitable? well....I blew a couple of accounts in the early days then since I learnt how to manage risk, I've netted about 1-2% a month since September. This is average performance (I had a shocker in December and a really good April).

Does this count? I'm going for no - Because the capital I move around is not enough to make 1-2% significant. I'm sure if I was rolling with X00,000 then I'd be pretty happy.

So - should being "consistently profitable" require a minimum rate of return per month?

Cheers,
  • #474
  • Edited Jul 5, 2012 2:05am Jul 4, 2012 3:51pm | Edited Jul 5, 2012 2:05am
Continuing on...

#2. I trade the s/r in an anti-trend direction...this is a special case and certain particular conditions need to be met....in this case, my s/r is usually weekly, monthly, sometimes, daily.

(b)Of course, i want a linear regression confluence at the point of entry too.

(c)This specific s/r has to be at previous market turning point and very fresh(never been tested). Why? S/R that happened as a result of market turning point are created through the fractionation of orders by fundamental big trading entities. They bleed into their position over days, sometimes, weeks in many cases, months. Thereby turning that region into a nice consolidation/market turning point. THERE ARE STILL FRESH ORDERS RESTING IN THAT AREA WAITING TO BE TRIGGERED. This will provide subsequent boost. Big players with long time horizon don't jam pack their orders in within seconds or hours. (Not just my trading experience, but yes, i do have analytical papers backing everything i just wrote.)

which leads to point #d.: The time range from when that s/r level was created to when it is now being tested should preferably not be more than 1 year at most and 1 month at least; 6 months for maximum efficacy. Why? Market Memory. One market trade have at least a memory of 2 weeks.(i have analytical papers for this too...yes, s/r can work up to 20 years, no doubt(i have analytical studies for this too)..but their efficacy diminished after a number of years.

Okay Skynet,

On your point (c)...

I am sure when a large position is being opened, it will be done in parts...over months sounds too long to me. If price is in the same region for months while they load up...what is the market doing for months? There are only 12 months in a year...Thereby turning that region into a nice consolidation/market turning point. If that were the case, there would be monthly consolidation areas very often on the chart. Maybe when there is a Double Top forming on a monthly chart or something, there is congestion like that. Please clarify the idea behind this turning point area.

You also mentioned that the specific area has to be untested. Many times price will dip below a support area before preparing to go back up (maybe looking for stops)....and vic-versa at resistance, but is there such a thing as a "very fresh" (never been tested) area?

On (d)..The time range from when that s/r level was created to when it is now being tested should preferably not be more than 1 year at most and 1 month at least; 6 months for maximum efficacy.

How did you arrive at those time periods?

I have heard that a fairly good percentage of trades from institutions are computer generated even down to the minute...and repeated over a few weeks or however long. Most traders won't remember exactly what happened, but there are programs that try to decipher "repeat behaviour"...even around specific times. I am assuming that is what you are calling Market Memory. Is that right?

Gann had a theory that change was inevitable when time was up. Or, some have said that he said, "When price and time meet change is inevitable." There seems to be some correlation there. Very recently I had some vertical time lines on my chart spaced at even intervals (taken from a pitchfork I had drawn). I have to tell you, I was a bit stunned by what I saw, and I was watching for a few days. As price approached a line, it began to prepare to change direction; and it did. If solid support or resistance areas were there, that was like icing on the cake. In one case, it consolidated, crossed a fork line, then continued from that point. On Friday, when price got to that time line exactly, it was like the market stopped. From there things began to park for the weekend.

Will pick up the rest of your post later on. Lots of stuff to go through . Your posts surface some interesting concepts and ideas.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #475
  • Edited Jul 5, 2012 2:17am Jul 4, 2012 4:49pm | Edited Jul 5, 2012 2:17am
Quoting LaurenceDale
Hello all -

Been watching this thread for a while, lurking like a stalker. FX4 - Thanks for this little goldmine of wisdom.

I started trading fx about 2 years ago, after playing with smallcap stocks for a couple years. Am I consistently profitable? well....I blew a couple of accounts in the early days then since I learnt how to manage risk, I've netted about 1-2% a month since September. This is average performance (I had a shocker in December and a really good April).

Does this count? I'm going for no - Because the capital I move around is...
Hi Stalker LaurenceDale...lol

Thanks for posting. Glad you are enjoying this "little goldmine of wisdom" as you put it.

Profitable is profitable in my book. If a trader can do what it takes to generate consistent profits, then it should just be a matter of repeating the actions etc. Of course trading with big bucks will put a bigger smile on your face. All you need to do now is grow your account.

I've heard from friends who manage funds, that HNWI are happy with 1% a month...consistently. If you do that consistently with minimal drawdowns, you might have folks hunting for you, and there will be your X00,000 to manage.

Cheers,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #476
  • Jul 5, 2012 3:16am Jul 5, 2012 3:16am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hi Stalker LaurenceDale...lol

Thanks for posting. Glad you are enjoying this "little goldmine of wisdom" as you put it.

Profitable is profitable in my book. If a trader can do what it takes to generate consistent profits, then it should just be a matter of repeating the actions etc. Of course trading with big bucks will put a bigger smile on your face. All you need to do now is grow your account.

I've heard from friends who manage funds, that HNWI are happy with 1% a month...consistently. If you do that consistently with minimal drawdowns,...

Haha well, I better start advertising then! lol

I manage retirement accounts (mutual funds - not FX) and my clients are more than happy with 4% per year net of all costs!
  • #477
  • Edited 4:19am Jul 5, 2012 3:27am | Edited 4:19am
Quoting LaurenceDale
Haha well, I better start advertising then! lol

I manage retirement accounts (mutual funds - not FX) and my clients are more than happy with 4% per year net of all costs!
Here comes the Stalker...lol

Shucks...I'm sure there are traders here at FF that can do that. Now let's think...is that because they've been (the clients I mean) conditioned to accept losses and therefore are okay with 4% a year? What if 20% became the norm, then what? We might be surprised to know what level of trader is behind these percentages. Mark Douglas makes some interesting points along those lines in his books when he first went to work with a big firm. We might be just as surprised as he was to how much money those traders lose and how many of them actually lose. Not knocking them...as we don't know what the stress factors are under those conditions...and that can change alot of things for a good trader.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #478
  • Jul 5, 2012 4:18am Jul 5, 2012 4:18am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Here comes the Stalker...lol

Shucks...I'm sure there are traders here at FF that can do that. Now let's think...is that because they've been (the clients I mean) conditioned to accept losses? What if 20% became the norm, then what? We might be surprised to know what level of trader is behind these percentages. Mark Douglas makes some interesting points along those lines in his books when he first went to work with a big firm. We might be just as surprised as he was as to how much of those traders lose. Not knocking them...as we don't know what...

I think 4% per year is acceptable to my client base because when your in retirement/very close to retirement - Security of capital is a very high priority. They understand the balance between risk and reward. I guess at that point in life, it's more about security and being able to sleep at night.

In my humble oppinion, as traders we are working towards freedom, excitement and the satisfaction of beating the market.

Managed investments with 'low' returns are for people who need to know their capital is secure, will pay the bills if needed, and will support their family after the owner is gone.

I'm sure it is possible to achieve a higher level of stable return - and if inflation continues to grow, I'm sure we'll have to start returning more.

I can't stand seeing my client funds decrease by 0.01% - However for myself, I'm young and don't have kids yet - I'm willing to shoot for the freedom!
  • #479
  • Jul 5, 2012 4:27am Jul 5, 2012 4:27am
Quoting LaurenceDale
I think 4% per year is acceptable to my client base because when your in retirement/very close to retirement - Security of capital is a very high priority. They understand the balance between risk and reward. I guess at that point in life, it's more about security and being able to sleep at night.

In my humble oppinion, as traders we are working towards freedom, excitement and the satisfaction of beating the market.

Managed investments with 'low' returns are for people who need to know their capital is secure, will pay the bills if needed,...
You make a good point there...retirement funds. Less risk...sure. Clients that can sleep at night should stay around for a while . Have to ask...Is there a certain minimum percentage that is the goal or just go for...

Young...shoot for the freedom!!! Yes!!!

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #480
  • Jul 5, 2012 5:30am Jul 5, 2012 5:30am
Quoting FX4Newbies
You make a good point there...retirement funds. Less risk...sure. Clients that can sleep at night should stay around for a while . Have to ask...Is there a certain minimum percentage that is the goal or just go for...

Young...shoot for the freedom!!! Yes!!!

FX4
I work on a case by case basis - but working to a target return is generally a trouble maker, unless you can sell down capital.

For example, Grandparent leaves an investment fund to pay for the grandson's college fees. Needs investment to yield 7%. If we get more than 7, great - It gets reinvested. If we dont, then the initial capital is sold up to the required ammount.

If someone invested £100,000 with me, I could get them a 20k income per year - but the capital may be all gone by year 6/7!

So, FX4 - What is your number? What percentage do you need to return every month to be a consistently profitable trader?
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