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  • #441
  • Jul 1, 2012 1:00pm Jul 1, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting Skynet
ON S/R

Like every other technical tool...s/r needs to be traded properly to be effective.

I trade S/R two ways:

#1. I trade s/r in the direction of the trend--in this specific case, i dont take my s/r lower than h4.

#2. I trade the s/r in an anti-trend direction...this is a special case and certain particular conditions need to be met....in this case, my s/r is usually weekly, monthly, sometimes, daily.

(b)Of course, i want a linear regression confluence at the point of entry too.

(c)This specific s/r has to be at previous market turning...
Sorry but UTTER TOSH, there is no long term market memory, what your seeing is coincidences, and if there was the ability for you to spot them without many false 1's is well so remote, purely not enough info on a H4 chart.

If you where talking Nasdaq / Dow stocks you'd have more of a chance of D1 charts, but Forex hell no!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #442
  • Jul 1, 2012 1:18pm Jul 1, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting Turveyd
Sorry but UTTER TOSH, there is no long term market memory, what your seeing is coincidences,.....
Well, here is an analytical article supporting my position. Do you have one supporting your position? Feel free to google "long memory process in the financial markets". You will see a bunch of articles about it. In any auction system with human participants, e.g used cars selling, forex, stocks market, bazaars...there is long memory process involved. Care to point me in the direction of studies saying this is "utter tosh"?

Quoting Turveyd
..... and if there was the ability for you to spot them without many false 1's is well so remote, purely not enough info on a H4 chart.
Do you know what long memory process in financial trading is? (2)How do you know there is not enough data on H4 chart? Can you back this up with analytical papers?

Quoting Turveyd
If you where talking Nasdaq / Dow stocks you'd have more of a chance of D1 charts, but Forex hell no!!
Long memory process applies to all auction processes with human participants. It doesnt matter if it is stock market, orange selling, book auctions, forex, anything with auctions and human participants.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #443
  • Jul 1, 2012 1:52pm Jul 1, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting Skynet
Well, here is an analytical article supporting my position. Do you have one supporting your position? Feel free to google "long memory process in the financial markets". You will see a bunch of articles about it. In any auction system with human participants, e.g used cars selling, forex, stocks market, bazaars...there is long memory process involved. Care to point me in the direction of studies saying this is "utter tosh"?



Do you know what long memory process...
Logic is all you need, how many S/R points ( claimed ) will there be in 11 months around the current price level ?? 100's ??

What is working for you is, your entering with the trend, doesn't really matter what your entry is as it'll continue most of the time with the trend, and I'd bet you've got enough S/R points on your chart to match up with every pull back so historically it looks good, unless the probability of those S/R points helding on the first touch is greatly improved then it doesn't work, look at how often the market goes through them without missing a beat.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #444
  • Jul 1, 2012 1:54pm Jul 1, 2012 1:54pm
Quoting Skynet
Well, here is an analytical article supporting my position. Do you have one supporting your position? Feel free to google "long memory process in the financial markets". You will see a bunch of articles about it. In any auction system with human participants, e.g used cars selling, forex, stocks market, bazaars...there is long memory process involved. Care to point me in the direction of studies saying this is "utter tosh"?



Do you know what long memory process...

And you can find analytical papers which proves astrology works for timing market trends, yes this is also 100% coincidental and every other crack pot theory, the people that do this are not objective most of the time which makes them kinda pointless.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #445
  • Edited 2:13pm Jul 1, 2012 2:03pm | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting Skynet
ON S/R

Like every other technical tool...s/r needs to be traded properly to be effective.

I trade S/R two ways:

#1. I trade s/r in the direction of the trend--in this specific case, i dont take my s/r lower than h4.

#2. I trade the s/r in an anti-trend direction...this is a special case and certain particular conditions need to be met....in this case, my s/r is usually weekly, monthly, sometimes, daily.

(b)Of course, i want a linear regression confluence at the point of entry too.

(c)This specific s/r has to be at previous market...
"Market memory"
and "market turning points" sound right.
However, thinking s/r is right is WAY off.
A key ingredient to any chart is the trend angle. Sure, price action can focus on a price, since price is the dependent variable and time the independent variable, and so you express what the price is to determine temporary independence of the dependent variable. But you're forgetting the larger issue, that of why price action creates patterns, why PA repeats patterns in series, and why, at your "market turning points" (which I guess to be important news, weekend gap, etc.), patterns form that hold for a good while and/or across several currencies. Patterns are made of angles, and project, for example, trendlines from those angles. The pattern may be as simple as a large ellipse, or rather cycle, or as small as a well-drawn triangle, or as difficult as large pairs of different polygons. Whatever the case, angles, not just horizontal lines, create the chart. To go the hz path is a gross underestimation of "market memory".

Respect for trying the path, tho, and to the other poster, who speaks of randomness. I took, or have taken, the path of randomness, to trade patterns in their own right.
  • #446
  • Jul 1, 2012 2:22pm Jul 1, 2012 2:22pm
Quoting ha-pattern
.....But you're forgetting the larger issue, that of why price action creates patterns, why PA repeats patterns in series, and why, at your "market turning points" (which I guess to be important news, weekend gap, etc.), patterns form that hold for a good while and/or across several currencies.
I thought i have made myself clear on that, i will try again: why PA repeats patterns because of (a)long form memory processes in the financial market (b)cluster of untriggered orders. WHY PATTERNS formed in the first place? LIQUIDITY levels. The liquidity level/trading information asymmetry at any given time determines the level of interaction of buyers/sellers...which results in pattern formations.

Quoting ha-pattern
.....
Patterns are made of angles, and project, for example, trendlines from those angles.
Trendlines are simply linear regression analysis. ALL TECHNICAL PATTERNS ARE SIMPLY one of two things, or these TWO THINGS: TL and S/R.

Quoting ha-pattern
The pattern may be as simple as a large ellipse, or rather cycle, or as small as a well-drawn triangle, or as difficult as large pairs of different polygons. Whatever the case, angles, not just horizontal lines, create the chart. To go the hz path is a gross underestimation of "market memory".
It doesnt matter what shapes it takes...all technical anlysis patterns are one of two things or both: TL and S/R. Even candles.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #447
  • Jul 1, 2012 2:40pm Jul 1, 2012 2:40pm
Quoting Skynet
I thought i have made myself clear on that, i will try again: why PA repeats patterns because of (a)long form memory processes in the financial market (b)cluster of untriggered orders. WHY PATTERNS formed in the first place? LIQUIDITY levels. The liquidity level/trading information asymmetry at any given time determines the level of interaction of buyers/sellers...which results in pattern formations.



Trendlines are simply linear regression analysis. ALL TECHNICAL PATTERNS ARE...
Your a) helps justify multi-time frame trades, and b) how one pattern looks like it "answers" another pattern across even great distances.
Apparently, then, you use linear regression to show how effective one or another s/r line is.
I did forget to note curves; also, trend angles combine of their own right, as you would already know is possible with "market turning points" and with volatility (a concept oft related to "liquidity").

I would think, though, that direct, visual interpretation through patterns of what the chart presents, is much more precise a language than l.r. attenuation of price action between price levels (s/r). Otherwise, you're merely transferring the reading of patterns from the original source (chart) to a price action - derived indicator (the linear regression indicator). Perhaps and maybe apparently, the latter is simpler to read.
  • #448
  • Jul 1, 2012 2:45pm Jul 1, 2012 2:45pm
Quoting Turveyd
Logic is all you need, how many S/R points ( claimed ) will there be in 11 months around the current price level ?? 100's ??
As i have learned in trading: commonsense is not so common. Why do you assume that a 100 S/R point will be there in 11 months? If you dont mind...can you please post a chart showing what you view as an S/R level? If you dont mind.

Quoting Turveyd
.....
What is working for you is, your entering with the trend, doesn't really matter what your entry is as it'll continue most of the time with the trend, and I'd bet you've got enough S/R points on your chart to match up with every pull back so historically it looks good, unless the probability of those S/R points helding on the first touch is greatly improved then it doesn't work, look at how often the market goes through them without missing a beat.
Not the way i do mine. the market doesnt go through it without missing a bit.

exhibit a, before and after.
exhibit b, before , update, update, after.
exhibit c, before and update and update and after
exhibit d, before and after.

this is what i can do in such a short notice. i as you can see...i dont have lines all over my charts.



Quoting Turveyd
And you can find analytical papers which proves astrology works for timing market trends, yes this is also 100% coincidental and every other crack pot theory,
No. You wont find analytical papers that proves that astrology works for timing market trends. correlations is not causation. Feel free to post an analytical paper that proves astrology = market timing.

Quoting Turveyd
..... the people that do this are not objective most of the time which makes them kinda pointless.
If your analytical paper is not rigorously sourced and buttress with strong data and analysis. It wont be published in reputable journals. The people that do this kind of analytical work are as objective as they can be.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #449
  • Jul 1, 2012 3:06pm Jul 1, 2012 3:06pm
Quoting ha-pattern
Your a) helps justify multi-time frame trades, and b) how one pattern looks like it "answers" another pattern across even great distances.
I guess. Because if you look at any chart pattern: it is TL and S/R or one of them.

Quoting ha-pattern
Apparently, then, you use linear regression to show how effective one or another s/r line is.
I did forget to note curves; also, trend angles combine of their own right, as you would already know is possible with "market turning points" and with volatility (a concept oft related to "liquidity").
Curves, as in cup and handle bottom? That too is merely TL and S/R. TL on both sides(left and right) and S/R inbetween. The only way you will have a technical pattern that will not have TL and/or S AND R is if the price action is perfectly smooth. which is never the case because prices moves in waves or zigzags.

Quoting ha-pattern
I would think, though, that direct, visual interpretation through patterns of what the chart presents, is much more precise a language than.....
REDUCING all chart patterns to TL and S/R or one of them is a direct visual interpretation. it seems to me.

Quoting ha-pattern
.....
l.r. attenuation of price action between price levels (s/r)..
I dont think price is attenuating between price levels in the case of S/R....they are actually gathering momentum secretly to break out. I wrote more about it here.

Quoting ha-pattern
.....Otherwise, you're merely transferring the reading of patterns from the original source (chart) to a price action - derived indicator (the linear regression indicator). Perhaps and maybe apparently, the latter is simpler to read.
It seems to me that i am not transferring anything. when you have data points and you connect them with a straight line...you are doing linear regression analysis. the data points could be the price of wheat, eur/usd, number of football goals, amount of laptop...etc. The main question is: is that data points best analyzed using that method?
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #450
  • Jul 1, 2012 3:29pm Jul 1, 2012 3:29pm
Quoting Skynet
As i have learned in trading: commonsense is not so common. Why do you assume that a 100 S/R point will be there in 11 months? If you dont mind...can you please post a chart showing what you view as an S/R level? If you dont mind.



Not the way i do mine. the market doesnt go through it without missing a bit.

exhibit a, before and after.
exhibit b,[url="http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5755913#post5755913"]...
At least you have a grasp at science that'll help.

There will be 100's as for GU it's been trading the same range on the D1 charts for 2 years. but it depends on how big the S/R is you could see 1000's or very few.

I'll stick to trading direction personally, tried S/R to death over the years, unless you know when a S/R point will hold or not, or has enough odds to work with a much bigger pay out than the risk then pretty pointless.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #451
  • Jul 1, 2012 3:49pm Jul 1, 2012 3:49pm
I have two years trading never seen the profit,put I want two learn to trade I don't know what is it that I'm doing wrong,put I believe the forex market is the best thing I must learn.
  • #452
  • Edited 6:08pm Jul 1, 2012 5:40pm | Edited 6:08pm
Quoting Skynet
.
You study candles, you said. I didn't see notes for them on a chart of yours that is interesting, and I did see a really neat s/r line you may find useful (since I'm on simulator); the upper two lines are likely of much less value, longterm:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Although I do see your going for causation, because I don't know the reason the s/r line I added should work, except for the unusual symmetry of the patterns around it.
The two upper lines are a pattern I'm more used to drawing.
  • #453
  • Jul 1, 2012 7:50pm Jul 1, 2012 7:50pm
Quoting Turveyd
Oddly I see nothing in S/R on anything over M5 seriously, I need to see an area of say 30mins so 6 M5 bars, or 10mins on M1 to show an area of S/R, this is live as well, historic S/R I've tried it and see zero value with them, talking like 2hours tops before it's just history.

Yes I'm sure you can find examples of S/R working, but for every example you find I'll show you 2 examples of where it failed. There coincidences nothing more.
Hi Turveyd, Interesting you should find this so. The only plausible explanation I can make from this is that differing TF's operate and or are governed by their own relative market dynamics. It all boils down to what works for any given individual I guess. Regards Xen
  • #454
  • Edited Jul 2, 2012 6:19am Jul 1, 2012 8:44pm | Edited Jul 2, 2012 6:19am
Quoting xenios
Firstly in respect to `strong s/r levels' is naturally enough where evidence has shown that PA in the past has had difficultly overcoming in breaking through on more than 2 - 3 occasions, more would be even better. This seems to be the point where large institutional players have set camp with large pending buy/sell trades. Secondly I find also that losses are much less (for me anyhow) on larger TF's. Such levels have much more credence on the H1 and above. Personally I prefer to bleed as many pips out of a trade as is possible rather than just...

What is your favoured methodology FX4?

Regards Xen
Firstly in respect to `strong s/r levels' is naturally enough where evidence has shown that PA in the past has had difficultly overcoming in breaking through on more than 2 - 3 occasions, more would be even better.

Agreed! I've also seen MAs work well and of course my fork lines . The remainder are generally horizontal areas or, if one gets fancy, ellipses.

I use the Andrews' Pitchfork and I do agree that the H1 and above give much more credence to the move that is being formed. I do use the smaller TFs for my entry. Anything else I may add to the chart like a Fibo or something is after the fact of the fork. Here's a link to my journal thread at FF. I also do weekly analysis of the 10 pairs I follow plus Metals and Oil on my blog.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #455
  • Jul 1, 2012 9:08pm Jul 1, 2012 9:08pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Agreed! I've also seen MAs work well and of course my fork lines .

I use the Andrews' Pitchfork and I do agree that the H1 and above give much more credence to the move that is being formed. I do use the smaller TFs for my entry. Anything else I may add to the chart like a Fibo or something is after the fact of the fork.FX4
Thank you for that feedback FX4
  • #456
  • Jul 1, 2012 9:10pm Jul 1, 2012 9:10pm
Lots of great posts and discussions. Need to take the time to go through them in detail...maybe later today.

Thanks guys.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #457
  • Jul 1, 2012 9:11pm Jul 1, 2012 9:11pm
Quoting xenios
Thank you for that feedback FX4
No probs. Going to try to catch a nap before London session.

Take care,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #458
  • Jul 1, 2012 10:10pm Jul 1, 2012 10:10pm
Quoting xenios
Thank you for that feedback FX4
The title of your post said indicators. Not sure what you were intending to communicate there, but, as an fyi, the Andrews Pitchfork is a drawing tool...sometimes people call them indicators. Big difference.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #459
  • Jul 1, 2012 10:11pm Jul 1, 2012 10:11pm
Quoting pmeletse
I have two years trading never seen the profit,put I want two learn to trade I don't know what is it that I'm doing wrong,put I believe the forex market is the best thing I must learn.
Hi Pmeletse,

Do you know the expectancy of your system? Can you go back and look at your chart after a losing trade and see where you went wrong? If not, I'd say something is definitely wrong. Maybe your trading edge is not as clearly defined as it should be.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #460
  • Jul 1, 2012 11:24pm Jul 1, 2012 11:24pm
Quoting xenios
Hi Turveyd, Interesting you should find this so. The only plausible explanation I can make from this is that differing TF's operate and or are governed by their own relative market dynamics. It all boils down to what works for any given individual I guess. Regards Xen
There is information cascade from fundamental players(generally higher HTF) to lower time frames(generally technical traders).

Contrary to popular beliefs HTF fundamental trader with horizon stretching beyonds months and years react faster than technical trader with horizon of days or hours or seconds.

Fundamental trader, higher time frame trader, creates the patterns in the market...lower time frames traders, technical traders creates the noise in the market. Also, HFT(high frequency trading by algos/people) creates noise too.

Fundamental trader, HTF trader are liquidity provider....LTF traders, technical traders, are liquidity hunters.

S/R levels are not areas of equilibrium, on the contrary...they are areas of strong disequilibrium due to information asymmetry between fundamental traders and technical traders. The issue of liquidity and trading market efficiency mask this fact.

If you have any questions about what i have just written...i will freely provide the detailed analytical studies showing all this to be true. Or, you can simply google any of this yourself.

Quoting ha-pattern
You study candles, you said. I didn't see notes for them on a chart of yours that is interesting, and I did see a really neat s/r line you may find useful (since I'm on simulator); the upper two lines are likely of much less value, longterm:
..........
Although I do see your going for causation, because I don't know the reason the s/r line I added should work, except for the unusual symmetry of the patterns around it.
The two upper lines are a pattern I'm more used to drawing.
On the chart below, i have marked the areas that i think will work with a check mark._/ and the areas that i think wont work with an X mark. why? well, the x area has been used before. the check mark areas has not been used yet. i like virgin territories, so to speak. Is it possible that the X area will work in the future? absolutely....but...i like high probability setup. This is a game of odds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-02_00-09_attachment.php (JPEG Image.jpg Size: 70 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
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