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Sonic R. System

  • #36,681
  • Jul 2, 2012 10:24am Jul 2, 2012 10:24am
Quoting stevepatt
To get a better understanding of how everyone is doing with this system it would be better to report returns in multiples of R.

For example if your SL is 25 pips and you make 50 pips you have a return of 2R or two times your SL this will give everyone a far better idea of how this system is performing rather than by pips won.

I could win 100 pips but if my SL was 150 pips my return would only be 0.67R less than 1:1 Risk to Reward but 100 pips won looks very impressive until put into context.

Regards
Steve
ok i understand your point. but my sl was only -15. so you can say it was 3R. is that what r you wanna know?
Money Management and Patience is the Key
  • #36,682
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:07am Jul 2, 2012 11:07am
Quoting scuderia
ok i understand your point. but my sl was only -15. so you can say it was 3R. is that what r you wanna know?
That's what I mean, to get the R return simply divide return, 50 pips, by SL, 15 pips (50/15= 3.33) so the return is 3.33R.

This gives a much better idea for how a method is performing rather than just reporting pips won which in real terms means nothing. if everyone gave their returns this way anyone reading the thread would have a better idea of what to expect from the method or system used.

Nice trade by the way

Regards
Steve
  • #36,683
  • Jul 2, 2012 5:22pm Jul 2, 2012 5:22pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: flaf_failed_11.jpg Size: 225 KB


Inserted Video


- so let the market decide ...

emc2
enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do
  • #36,684
  • Edited 7:26pm Jul 2, 2012 7:06pm | Edited 7:26pm
Quoting stevepatt
To get a better understanding of how everyone is doing with this system it would be better to report returns in multiples of R.

For example if your SL is 25 pips and you make 50 pips you have a return of 2R or two times your SL this will give everyone a far better idea of how this system is performing rather than by pips won.

I could win 100 pips but if my SL was 150 pips my return would only be 0.67R less than 1:1 Risk to Reward but 100 pips won looks very impressive until put into context.

Regards
Steve
"....I could win 100 pips but if my SL was 150 pips my return would only be 0.67R, less than 1:1 Risk to Reward..." -stevepatt

Nevertheless, it would be a 100 pips gained trade! Some folks might hold stock in trading only when they see a 2R opportunity (reward could be 2x risk) as a way of being "pickier" in selecting a trade. And there is nothing wrong with being picky in selecting a trade. In the final analysis, however, pips gained is what the ball game is all about, and no matter what the R:R ratio of the trade was.

And it is the purpose of posting clean, properly annotated charts that folks can see things clearly. Just by glancing at a proper chart things like the pair ID, chart TF, EP, SL, and TP(s) should be very clear, and therefore the approximate R:R should also be inherently and instantly very clear.

The next following post has a good example of a chart of a trade that is clean and where all things that matter are clear to see.

-tah
  • #36,685
  • Jul 2, 2012 7:09pm Jul 2, 2012 7:09pm
AU: Entered short. See possibility for downside PA up to the first high impact release. In any case, a proper PA wave exists, Dragon is angled down, and PA is actually below the Trend at entry. The risk here is that EP is not during the LS, so the trade can more easily go flat, even reverse.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #36,686
  • Jul 2, 2012 7:48pm Jul 2, 2012 7:48pm
TAH, I would be looking for a lower wave formation blw 1.2565 prior to LO
before looking for a long posn, what do u think?
  • #36,687
  • Jul 2, 2012 7:57pm Jul 2, 2012 7:57pm
Quoting traderathome
AU: Entered short. See possibility for downside PA up to the first high impact release. In any case, a proper PA wave exists, Dragon is angled down, and PA is actually below the Trend at entry. The risk here is that EP is not during the LS, so the trade can more easily go flat, even reverse.
in less than 4 hours time will be the RBA rate annoucement.
most likely it will remain at 3.5, we shall see.
I look for breakout of 1.021 and 1.027
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #36,688
  • Jul 2, 2012 8:03pm Jul 2, 2012 8:03pm
Quoting stevepatt
To get a better understanding of how everyone is doing with this system it would be better to report returns in multiples of R.

For example if your SL is 25 pips and you make 50 pips you have a return of 2R or two times your SL this will give everyone a far better idea of how this system is performing rather than by pips won.

I could win 100 pips but if my SL was 150 pips my return would only be 0.67R less than 1:1 Risk to Reward but 100 pips won looks very impressive until put into context.

Regards
Steve
Hi Steve,


Very good share here.
And thanks for that great video on post#35694,
plenty traders can learn to be profitable with a good risk model and not just focus on collecting pips.
It is about how to grow your money in a well managed way.
I like that part where the presneter said about technical setups is just a very small part of the whole thing.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post5717848

Regards,
EMMA
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #36,689
  • Jul 2, 2012 8:16pm Jul 2, 2012 8:16pm
Quoting Zimarz
TAH, I would be looking for a lower wave formation blw 1.2565 prior to LO
before looking for a long posn, what do u think?
Hi, Zimarz. You are looking for a long position. Why? D1 trend is down. Since the open this week, the H1 trend is down. And, on M15 both the Dragon and Trend are angled down, and importantly the Dragon is now below the Trend. As things are right now, we have to take it that the market bias is bearish.

Of course, at any moment PA can be driven in such a direction as to eventually put PA and the Dragon above the Trend, in which case the market would be demonstrating a bullish bias.

We don't know when the next SonicR setup is coming, nor in which direction the trade will be. So, we need to be patient and wait for the next setup, and at that time see if it suits us.

-tah
  • #36,690
  • Edited 9:42pm Jul 2, 2012 8:38pm | Edited 9:42pm
Quoting traderathome
AU: Entered short. See possibility for downside PA up to the first high impact release. In any case, a proper PA wave exists, Dragon is angled down, and PA is actually below the Trend at entry. The risk here is that EP is not during the LS, so the trade can more easily go flat, even reverse.
AU: Moved SL higher, and might have to again, even above next higher whole number. My SL is mental, but I am trying to learn a way to live with setting a hard one......and with absolutely no progress. It seems futile. The market will whip prices how it wants to before a good trade gets started. And, for my money, there is no valid way to set a SL, other than a catastophic SL.

Edit: Actually, two risks existed at time of entry. One: was not LS. Two: Dragon was not below Trend for a short trade. This is not mandatory within SonicR Rules & Recommendations, but it is a way of being more picky. So. I should not be in this trade. If the Dragon were below the Trend at entry, then maybe setting a close SL would be more meaningful. Learning process.....
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  • #36,691
  • Jul 2, 2012 9:45pm Jul 2, 2012 9:45pm
Hi Tah,

Out of curiosity only, would you tell me an example where a mental SL got hit and you closed a trade? I mean there must have been certain trades where market just moved the other way not looking back for a while? I read back and couldn't find such thing in your posts, if Iwas blind (again) please do let me know. I admire that you can handle sl levels like this, sounds like extra pressure at first.

Thank you!
  • #36,692
  • Edited 10:33pm Jul 2, 2012 10:14pm | Edited 10:33pm
Quoting Ati_82
Hi Tah,

Out of curiosity only, would you tell me an example where a mental SL got hit and you closed a trade? I mean there must have been certain trades where market just moved the other way not looking back for a while? I read back and couldn't find such thing in your posts, if Iwas blind (again) please do let me know. I admire that you can handle sl levels like this, sounds like extra pressure at first.

Thank you!
Examples are few and far between, and mostly since first of the year. I do believe one or two were in June. You'd have to go back and check, as would I.

Edit: Found two recent ones:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post5784803
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post5784817

-tah
  • #36,693
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:10am Jul 3, 2012 12:10am
Quoting enigma4x
Attachment
- so let the market decide ...
emc2
Do you have mental TP and Best case TP?
  • #36,694
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:25am Jul 3, 2012 12:25am
Quoting traderathome
Examples are few and far between, and mostly since first of the year. I do believe one or two were in June. You'd have to go back and check, as would I.

Edit: Found two recent ones:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post5784803
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post5784817

-tah
Oh, my apologies. It seems I have misinterpreted the given examples. Thought those are preset SL levels. Thanks for clearing that up.
  • #36,695
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:27am Jul 3, 2012 12:27am
Quoting traderathome
Hi, Zimarz. You are looking for a long position. Why? D1 trend is down. Since the open this week, the H1 trend is down. And, on M15 both the Dragon and Trend are angled down, and importantly the Dragon is now below the Trend. As things are right now, we have to take it that the market bias is bearish.

Of course, at any moment PA can be driven in such a direction as to eventually put PA and the Dragon above the Trend, in which case the market would be demonstrating a bullish bias.

We don't know when the next SonicR setup is coming,...
Thanks for the explanation
  • #36,696
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:58am Jul 3, 2012 12:58am
Quoting traderathome
"....I could win 100 pips but if my SL was 150 pips my return would only be 0.67R, less than 1:1 Risk to Reward..." -stevepatt

Nevertheless, it would be a 100 pips gained trade! Some folks might hold stock in trading only when they see a 2R opportunity (reward could be 2x risk) as a way of being "pickier" in selecting a trade. And there is nothing wrong with being picky in selecting a trade. In the final analysis, however, pips gained is what the ball game is all about, and no matter what the R:R ratio of the trade was.

And it...
Simple answer is to post both pips gained and R value to get a good idea for what to expect.

System A makes 20 pips with a 2R return on a regular basis system B makes 100 pips with a 0.67R return on a regular basis. Which trading system would you rather trade?
  • #36,697
  • Jul 3, 2012 2:12am Jul 3, 2012 2:12am
Quoting stevepatt
Simple answer is to post both pips gained and R value to get a good idea for what to expect.

System A makes 20 pips with a 2R return on a regular basis system B makes 100 pips with a 0.67R return on a regular basis. Which trading system would you rather trade?
for me still i choose system B. well SL is nothing when it is not hit. and profit is still profit. that's what i think.
Money Management and Patience is the Key
  • #36,698
  • Jul 3, 2012 2:26am Jul 3, 2012 2:26am
Quoting stevepatt
Simple answer is to post both pips gained and R value to get a good idea for what to expect.

System A makes 20 pips with a 2R return on a regular basis system B makes 100 pips with a 0.67R return on a regular basis. Which trading system would you rather trade?
For me, between the choice of System A or System B, I will choose System A.
I look at the Expectancy of my trading over a longer period and number of trades.

Thanks Steve.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #36,699
  • Jul 3, 2012 2:28am Jul 3, 2012 2:28am
Quoting scuderia
for me still i choose system B. well SL is nothing when it is not hit. and profit is still profit. that's what i think.
but when it hit, it hit hard ..

don't know which is the best, i think it's depend on each trader...

but 1,5R is very nice for me...
  • #36,700
  • Jul 3, 2012 2:37am Jul 3, 2012 2:37am
Quoting scuderia
for me still i choose system B. well SL is nothing when it is not hit. and profit is still profit. that's what i think.

Would you take a system making 20 pips with an average 2R return with a 48% strike rate?

You need to know the expectency of a system before you can have confidence in it.
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